Yesterday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a press conference to answer questions about the U.S-Mexicos migration and border security agreement. After reviewing some info from today, I’m inserting a graphic into Pompeo’s transcribed responses to better understand the “45 days” aspect. [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript – (emphasis mine)] SECRETARY POMPEO: A couple things this afternoon. First, I’ll give some remarks later this week that are consistent with what we’ve been working on for my entire time here in the Indo-Pacific.
I’ll be speaking to a group of Indian business leaders in preparation for the trip that I’ll take in a couple weeks where I’ll be visiting India, an important part of President Trump’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. And I’m looking forward to the opportunity both to give the set of remarks about how it is our relationship is so closely tied economically, but also importantly the things that the United States and India can continue to do to build out what is an incredibly important relationship for both countries.
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Earlier this morning President Donald Trump called in to CNBC to discuss a variety of subjects including: the ongoing trade negotiations with China; the threat of tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration; the federal reserve; the status of the economy; the duplicity of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; collusion by democrats; the upcoming G20 summit in Japan, and much, much, more.
During the interview President Trump directly calls out the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for their anti-American position and self-interested advocacy for Wall Street multinational corporations. Additionally, President Trump pushes back against the claim that tariffs lead to higher U.S. prices, citing examples of China subsidizing their exports and low U.S. inflation.  Must Watch:

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(LOL… POTUS Trump chomping-at-the-bit to get tariffs on the EU.)

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Former White House China trade negotiator Clete Willems makes a rare appearance to discuss President Trump’s ongoing trade position with China; and the lessons they are learning from Trump’s severity with Mexico.
Fox News talking-hair Leland Vitter, a prime example of the axiom: “a little knowledge is dangerous”, tries his best to promote the preferred Murdoch points; however, Vitter finds himself struggling against the weight of the examples highlighted by Mr. Willems. Quite funny actually:

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Worth noting: President Trump spoke with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) yesterday (See Tweets Below).
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Appearing on Fox News Sunday acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan discusses the approach by President Trump to impose import tariffs on Mexico if the administration of President Lopez-Obrador does not fulfill their pledge.
Along with outlining the Mexican agreement, McAleenan notes President Trump is absolutely willing to impose the tariffs on Mexico if there is no substantive and immediate improvement to stem the flow of Central American migrants.

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The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.
Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and  terms.  The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.
That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.
Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.
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UPDATE: U.S-Mexico Joint Statement Added at bottom:
President Trump tweets that a signed deal has been reached between the U.S. and Mexico to stop the unlawful Central American migration that has created a crisis at the border:

According to the president details will come from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who, along with VP Mike Pence and Secretary Wilbur Ross, was central to the U.S. negotiating team.
The Mexican government of Lopez-Obrador was desperate to reach an agreement as U.S. companies had already begun rapid supply chain preparation to avoid the tariffs scheduled to begin on Monday. Think about the scale of international investment into Mexico, done with the sole purpose of gaining access to the U.S. market.
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President Trump sat down for an extensive interview with Laura Ingraham to discuss the D-Day commemorative event and a variety of current event topics including: Tariffs on Mexico, Nancy Pelosi and impeachment threats, China trade confrontation and the relationship between President Trump and H.M. Queen Elizabeth.

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President Trump and First Lady Melania return from Ireland today. Schedule below.
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During brief press remarks following a USMCA speech in Pennsylvania, Vice President Mike Pence outlined the current status of “talks” between the U.S. and Mexican officials.
The vice-president affirms several times that President Trump is “firm in his position” to see Mexico step-up and do more to stop the mass migration of illegal aliens from Central America.  If you think about it, against the context of the USMCA, the Trump position to confront Mexico is absolutely the right approach.
Mexico wants the USMCA trade agreement, and they want to be united with the U.S. and Canada on trade and collaborative economic benefits.  However, simultaneously Mexico has repeatedly said it will not join the “Safe Third Country” agreement held by the United States and Canada, where asylum seekers must apply for refuge in whichever country they first arrive in, as each is considered safe.

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[It’s worth noting that Pence is likely under a lot of pressure from Tom Donohue and his friends within the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Pence deserves credit for standing up to his traditional tribe.]
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In an effort to avoid the tariffs scheduled to begin next Monday; and not admitting they have no ability to influence the U.S-Mexico border region controlled by drug cartels; the conniving Mexican government is pledging to send troops to their southern border.
However, President Trump isn’t in the mood for more empty promises.  In essence, the U.S. position led by Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is: do it, and let’s see… in the meantime, tariffs will commence until Mexican priorities are improved.

WASHINGTON – Faced with Trump’s threat to impose escalating tariffs on Mexican goods beginning Monday, Mexican officials have pledged to deploy up to 6,000 National Guard troops to the country’s border region with Guatemala, a show of force they say will make immediate reductions in the number of Central Americans heading north toward the U.S. border.
The Mexican official and the U.S. official said the countries are negotiating a sweeping plan to overhaul asylum rules across the region, a move that would require Central Americans to seek refuge in the first foreign country they set foot upon after fleeing their homeland.

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According to recent reporting, officials representing the U.S. and Mexico have failed to reach an agreement on measures to stop the flood of migrants traveling through Mexico.  As a result of the scale of the crisis, and without an agreement from Mexico to stop the worsening problem, President Trump has announced tariffs on imported goods from Mexico will start June 10th.
A hastily called press conference by Mexican officials is pending.  Livestream Link

Predictably Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is unwilling to stop the migration from Central America.  There are strong indications the Mexican government does not control the border region as Mexican drug cartels are in charge.
Last month U.S. Customs and Border Patrol report 144,278 people were apprehended attempting to cross the U.S. southern border in May alone.  The region is in crisis.
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