Kraft-Heinz has announced the next wave of anticipated inflationary prices for their products.  The announcement, and the timeline they provide for the price increases, is exactly in line with our prior estimations.

Prior CTH outlines on the path of inflation for this specific company are HERE (Dec) and HERE (Jan).  Keep in mind, depending on the size of the buyer or wholesaler, and depending on the terms of the contracts for purchase, generally speaking, terms are net payment in 30, 60 or 90 days based on 180 day contracted price agreements which include rebates to retailers.

(Reuters) […] “The company expects inflation to be in the low-teens percentage range for 2022, with higher levels in the first half than in the second, said Chief Financial Officer Paulo Basilio.” (link)

Both Proctor & Gamble and Kraft-Heinz provide the best data points to predict future retail grocery inflation.  Based on their previous notifications, we can now see that Kraft is anticipating the March – July rates of increase to remain approximately where they have been (20 to 30%) and then stabilize in the last half of the year bringing the yearly average into the “low teens.”  This timeline is what we predicted back in October.

The prices we will see at the grocery stores will rise again in the spring (this is the backside of the inflationary cycle), continue through mid-summer, and then price increases should likely level off at the end of summer this year.  Between the price today and the price at the point of leveling is approximately a 20% increase.

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The previously planned Russian training exercises [Announcement Here] have been completed in Belarus – close to neighboring Ukraine. Today those troops began returning to their places of regular deployment as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow.

As a result, the Biden manufactured ‘wag the dog‘ scenario, a fabricated ‘Russia invading Ukraine‘ premise by the White House, U.S. Dept of State, Pentagon and intelligence apparatus, needs to come to an end quickly.

After pretending that Russia was going to invade Ukraine in an effort to manufacture a political win out of thin air, Joe Biden will declare today he saved the world.

(New York Times) President Biden will speak on the Ukraine crisis at the White House this afternoon. Western analysts said it was too early to say if the announced troop movements were meaningful, but it might be a sign that Russia is stepping back from the threat of invasion.

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Here we go folks. Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, the first wave of producer driven inflation has just been quantified.  The economic analysts are shocked, stunned, flabbergasted and surprised, because the January single month wholesale inflation of 1.0% is double what they expected.

The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released January price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 9.7% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Check out the single month wholesale price increases in these categories [Table 2]: Beef jumped 6.5% in January (43.9% for year). Gasoline jumped 1.9% in January, (53.9% for year).  Diesel fuel jumped 9.4% in January (56.5% for year). Cooking oil 4.7% in January (36.4% for year).  Home heating oil jumped 7.3% in January (47.4% for year).  Pasta jumped 3.0% in January (16.2% for year). Tires jumped 4.6% in January (9.0% for year). Wholesale cleaning supplies jumped 3.8% in January (34.9% for year).

Unfortunately, there is nothing upstream in the supply chain and manufacturing pipeline to suggest that higher prices at the retail level are not coming.  The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.

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Against the latest court filings by John Durham, highlighting the tip of the political surveillance iceberg, I have been asked to re-post the deep dive into the totality of the scale of the iceberg.  I will add some of the latest information into the outline to show how it all connects.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder did not create a weaponized DOJ and FBI; instead, what they did was take the preexisting system and retool it, so the weapons only targeted one side of the political continuum.

Together they recalibrated the domestic surveillance capabilities, the internal spying systems, so that only their political opposition would be targeted. This point is where many people understandably get confused.

In the era shortly after 9/11, the DC national security apparatus was constructed to preserve continuity of government and simultaneously view all Americans as potential threats.  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) were created specifically for this purpose.

What Barack Obama and Eric Holder did with that new construct was refine the internal targeting mechanisms so that only their ideological opposition became the target of the new national security system.  This is a very important nuance to understand as you dig deeper into this research outline.

Washington DC created the modern national security apparatus immediately and hurriedly after 9/11/01.  DHS came along in 2002 and within the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 the ODNI was formed.  When Barack Obama and Eric Holder arrived a few years later, those newly formed institutions were viewed as opportunities to create a very specific national security apparatus that would focus almost exclusively against their political opposition.

The preexisting Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Dept of Justice (DOJ) were then repurposed to become two of the four pillars of the domestic national security apparatus.  However, this new construct would have a targeting mechanism based on political ideology.  The DHS, ODNI, DOJ and FBI became the four pillars of this new institution.  Atop these pillars is where you will find the Fourth Branch of Government.

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When the Biden administration loses MSNBC, you know the White House is realizing this is going to crush them.

In an unusual MSNBC discussion, the regime stenography panel admits that not only is inflation bad now, but it is likely to get much, much worse.  Just watch the first three minutes to recognize the scale of how the economic situation in the U.S. is being accepted by the water-carrying media.

“The problem we have here is a series of events that have led to higher prices,” says Liesman. “I am afraid this number is bad and could get worse.”

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Keep in mind, most Americans have no idea what 15% inflation and rising interest rates looks like.  The Gen-x generation saw everything as it was growing, and the millennial generation has no reference point for thrift prioritization, actual rationing and sustainability on a level where you have to make your own durable goods and foodstuffs. How many know how to cook, let alone sustain themselves financially.

Yes, things are bad now, but almost every person in the progressive, leftist, occupy, Antifa side of the political divide have no concept of what is about to happen.  It is going to be really interesting to watch how the 20- to 40-year-old age groups respond to a new era of economic scarcity and home gardening.

The ideological Obama crew have really pushed Joe Biden into the furnace.

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Whenever we discuss inflation, it is absolutely critical for people to understand that inflation itself is the measure of the percentage increase in a price over a period of time.

It is entirely possible, I would say absolutely guaranteed, that prices will increase even more this year as inflation begins to drop. This will be the economic story on the backside of the inflation hurricane as the Fed starts to increase interest rates. Example:

♦ 2021: A loaf of bread increases in price 50¢ from $1.00 to $1.50, a rate of inflation of 50%.

♦ 2022: That same loaf of bread increases in price by 60¢, from $1.50 to $2.10, a rate of inflation at 40%.

The price of the bread increased more in 2022 than 2021, but the rate of inflation dropped from 50% to 40%.

The White House and Federal Reserve state, correctly, that inflation is likely to drop.  However, the actual prices of the products are rising at a greater rate. This is the critical component of the inflation story that will remain with us throughout 2022.  Inflation is not measuring the increase in the price of an item.  Inflation is measuring the rate of the price increase as a percentage.

This is the context for the Federal Reserve to state today, they “hope” inflation slows down, because they are going to raise interest rates regardless of what is happening with the price of goods and services:

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Something has changed in the past several days.  Likely the private COVID fear polling continued to show an overwhelming number of Americans are just done with the constant COVID-19 fear porn and mandates.

Today, several states including New Jersey and California announced they were dropping their mask mandates and many COVID-19 regulations.  In the past week there appears to have been a big shift in the narrative.  To highlight that point, the biggest fear porn and mandate seller on CNN, Dr. Leana Wen, completely reversed her position, and said it’s time to let people make their own choices.  WATCH:

Notice also how there’s been virtual silence on any further White House efforts to push the booster or vaccination program.  Last we saw the booster compliance effort, it was less than 50% of those who were previously vaccinated.  There’s definitely been a change in narrative engineer pressure for more COVID pushing overall – vaccinations, regulations and/or masks.

Last point, Zach on Twitter had been searching for a video for quite some time that he just recently found again and shared.  It’s a video of Dr. Leana Wen from several years ago.  It really makes you stand back and think.  The video is very weird.

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This never ends well.

Joe Rogan has self-flagellated while treading water in a pool of Alinsky piranhas.

This never ends well.

Apparently, the Lightbringer for all modern Alinsky tribal followers, Barack Obama, triggered the final thumbs down and threatened the financial mechanism that supported the embattled Mr. Rogan, Spotify Inc. {LINK}

With the twitch of his pinkie ring, Teh One, the bringer of all racial and progressive enlightenment, Barack Obama, forced the ashamed and humiliated Joe Rogan to kneel before the altar of wokeism and apologize for the mortal sin of using the “N” word.

Earlier on Saturday, Mr. Rogan assessed his bank account, glanced at the tin cup and used Woke-Insta to profess his sins and beg forgiveness from the leftist tribe. {View Here}

In an effort to avoid his cancellation, Joe Rogan denounced his skin color, renounced his former shameful conduct and announced his new enlightenment.  Rogan predictably declared the oft familiar last ditch effort phrase, “this is a teachable moment.”

Quickly, Joe Rogan’s newly subscribed conservative audience was warm to appreciate his humility and offer their forgiveness.  However, that tribe is not the Spotify audience who manage the coliseum of his indentured servitude.  Despite their protestations to the contrary, the progressive and enlightened woke tribe never relent until they have achieved their goal – the removal of all Joe Rogan flesh and death by ten thousand screaming piranha bites.

For the professional and political left, apology is weakness.  Weakness must be punished.  The Alinsky clan bait their victims with the false promises of forgiveness; if you just cower strongly enough, bend meekly enough, apologize sincerely enough, it will be okay.  But forgiveness is never provided, it is never okay.

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Gasoline prices have risen, on average, 40% in the past 11 months.  This leads to higher consumer costs across the board.  Oil, currently $90/barrel, is going to go even higher as a merge of Biden economic, regulatory, energy and foreign policies are going to make things worse.

As the Obama-Biden administration previously said when they achieved their last historic increase in gas prices, “U.S. energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, in order to achieve their ideological climate change objectives.

(VIA CNBC) Gas prices rose to the highest level in more than seven years Friday, on the heels of the U.S. oil benchmark topping $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. 

The national average for a gallon of gas stood at $3.423 on Friday, according to AAA, slightly surpassing the prior high-water mark of $3.422 from Nov. 8.  Friday’s price means consumers are now paying the most at the pump since Sept. 10, 2014, AAA data shows.

The national average stood at $2.44 a year ago.  The rapid rise in prices is contributing to inflationary fears across the economy and is creating a headache for the Biden administration. (read more)

Yes, a president can and does control the price of gasoline.  What can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?  We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

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There really isn’t an adequate way to encapsulate what the Bureau of Labor and Statistics has done with their reported January jobs result [Main Data Here].   If you want a deep weeds review of the actuarial scheme deployed READ THIS ARTICLE.

In my lifetime of reviewing data and analytics, I have never reviewed a level of statistical manipulation that even comes close to this.  Well, at least not since the 1980’s junk bond valuations used for corporate restructuring and asset removal.  What the BLS produced today will likely go down in the annals of actuarial history as one of the most comprehensively fraudulent manipulations of labor and statistics in history.

In order to get to a point of being able to claim 467,000 job gains last month, the BLS needed to revise four years’ worth of claimed jobs and population data. By subtracting over a million prior jobs from 2021, essentially wiping out the COVID pandemic monthly impact, and by changing the workforce population over the same number of years, the BLS was able to recalculate the current number of people in the workforce and claim 467,000 jobs were recently created.

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