Kraft-Heinz has announced the next wave of anticipated inflationary prices for their products.  The announcement, and the timeline they provide for the price increases, is exactly in line with our prior estimations.

Prior CTH outlines on the path of inflation for this specific company are HERE (Dec) and HERE (Jan).  Keep in mind, depending on the size of the buyer or wholesaler, and depending on the terms of the contracts for purchase, generally speaking, terms are net payment in 30, 60 or 90 days based on 180 day contracted price agreements which include rebates to retailers.

(Reuters) […] “The company expects inflation to be in the low-teens percentage range for 2022, with higher levels in the first half than in the second, said Chief Financial Officer Paulo Basilio.” (link)

Both Proctor & Gamble and Kraft-Heinz provide the best data points to predict future retail grocery inflation.  Based on their previous notifications, we can now see that Kraft is anticipating the March – July rates of increase to remain approximately where they have been (20 to 30%) and then stabilize in the last half of the year bringing the yearly average into the “low teens.”  This timeline is what we predicted back in October.

The prices we will see at the grocery stores will rise again in the spring (this is the backside of the inflationary cycle), continue through mid-summer, and then price increases should likely level off at the end of summer this year.  Between the price today and the price at the point of leveling is approximately a 20% increase.

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The previously planned Russian training exercises [Announcement Here] have been completed in Belarus – close to neighboring Ukraine. Today those troops began returning to their places of regular deployment as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow.

As a result, the Biden manufactured ‘wag the dog‘ scenario, a fabricated ‘Russia invading Ukraine‘ premise by the White House, U.S. Dept of State, Pentagon and intelligence apparatus, needs to come to an end quickly.

After pretending that Russia was going to invade Ukraine in an effort to manufacture a political win out of thin air, Joe Biden will declare today he saved the world.

(New York Times) President Biden will speak on the Ukraine crisis at the White House this afternoon. Western analysts said it was too early to say if the announced troop movements were meaningful, but it might be a sign that Russia is stepping back from the threat of invasion.

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Here we go folks. Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, the first wave of producer driven inflation has just been quantified.  The economic analysts are shocked, stunned, flabbergasted and surprised, because the January single month wholesale inflation of 1.0% is double what they expected.

The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released January price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 9.7% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Check out the single month wholesale price increases in these categories [Table 2]: Beef jumped 6.5% in January (43.9% for year). Gasoline jumped 1.9% in January, (53.9% for year).  Diesel fuel jumped 9.4% in January (56.5% for year). Cooking oil 4.7% in January (36.4% for year).  Home heating oil jumped 7.3% in January (47.4% for year).  Pasta jumped 3.0% in January (16.2% for year). Tires jumped 4.6% in January (9.0% for year). Wholesale cleaning supplies jumped 3.8% in January (34.9% for year).

Unfortunately, there is nothing upstream in the supply chain and manufacturing pipeline to suggest that higher prices at the retail level are not coming.  The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.

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There it is.  Whoopsie, Pelosi just gave the game away.

We have been looking for this exact political construct and today we got it.  Nancy Pelosi appears on ABC This Week with George Stephanopoulos to discuss current events. This was all planned in advance.  This is guaranteed to be a political pantomime.

The first topic is the “Russia-Ukraine crisis,” with Stephanopoulos asking Pelosi directly if she believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to invade Ukraine.  Nancy Pelosi’s response [Transcript Here] tells us all we need to hear:

PELOSI: “Well, I think we have to be prepared for it. And that is what the president is — yes, I do believe that he is prepared for an invasion. I also understand why the President of Ukraine wants to keep people calm and that he wants his economy not to suffer. But, on the other hand, if we were not threatening the sanctions and the rest, it would guarantee that Putin would invade. Let’s hope that diplomacy works.

It’s about diplomacy deterrence. Diplomacy deterrence. And the president’s made it very clear. There’s a big price to pay for Russia to go there. So, if Russia doesn’t invade, it’s not that he never intended to. It’s just that the sanctions worked.” … “I’m very proud of the work that the president has done.” (read more)

Can you see the domestic political scenario that has been created out of thin air?

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Against the latest court filings by John Durham, highlighting the tip of the political surveillance iceberg, I have been asked to re-post the deep dive into the totality of the scale of the iceberg.  I will add some of the latest information into the outline to show how it all connects.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder did not create a weaponized DOJ and FBI; instead, what they did was take the preexisting system and retool it, so the weapons only targeted one side of the political continuum.

Together they recalibrated the domestic surveillance capabilities, the internal spying systems, so that only their political opposition would be targeted. This point is where many people understandably get confused.

In the era shortly after 9/11, the DC national security apparatus was constructed to preserve continuity of government and simultaneously view all Americans as potential threats.  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) were created specifically for this purpose.

What Barack Obama and Eric Holder did with that new construct was refine the internal targeting mechanisms so that only their ideological opposition became the target of the new national security system.  This is a very important nuance to understand as you dig deeper into this research outline.

Washington DC created the modern national security apparatus immediately and hurriedly after 9/11/01.  DHS came along in 2002 and within the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 the ODNI was formed.  When Barack Obama and Eric Holder arrived a few years later, those newly formed institutions were viewed as opportunities to create a very specific national security apparatus that would focus almost exclusively against their political opposition.

The preexisting Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Dept of Justice (DOJ) were then repurposed to become two of the four pillars of the domestic national security apparatus.  However, this new construct would have a targeting mechanism based on political ideology.  The DHS, ODNI, DOJ and FBI became the four pillars of this new institution.  Atop these pillars is where you will find the Fourth Branch of Government.

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White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan gave a press conference today again emphasizing that an attack on Ukraine was likely.  Sullivan also recommended that all U.S. citizens in Ukraine depart within the next 24 to 48 hours.  However, for reference, the White House has been making this “imminent” claim for over a month.

When pushed by media for how these determinations were made, Sullivan reiterated his position that “it’s not his responsibility to convince anyone.”   Overall, the entire situation still looks like a manufactured White House distraction from domestic criticism.

Russia has previously scheduled military exercises in the region.  This could be cover for Russia for the increased military presence prior to a cross border incursion, or the exercises could be the justification, or cover story for the White House to pretend that an invasion into Ukraine is likely.  The latter seems most likely.

Regardless of all of it, the White House has not made a case for why Americans should be worried about what happens between Russia and Ukraine, other than to say the financial interests of a lot of people and groups in Washington DC are connected to U.S. foreign policy toward Ukraine.

WASHINGTON –  National security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Friday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could come before the conclusion of the Winter Olympics on Feb. 20, but he did not say whether U.S. officials had determined whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had made a final decision on a course of action.

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…Not just any lockdowns, this time Governor Gretchen Whitmer is apoplectic over citizen trucker lockdowns.  This is far beyond irony and is case study in how leftists need to pretend not to know things.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, the same governor who was full-throated to lockdown businesses in her state and destroy the economic livelihoods of michiganders for over a year, is now deeply concerned, aghast and furious over the “economic impact” being created by the trucker protest and subsequent lockdowns of the supply chain they have created by their effective blockades.

As if she cannot fathom the similarity between her government forced lockdown mandates and the recent citizen inspired lockdown consequences, the insufferable Michigan governor goes on television to decry economic impact from the Ambassador Bridge blockade.  WATCH her give all the reasons why the blockades must be removed so the multinational corporations can get back to work.

How is the business interruption from the trucker blockade any different than the business interruption from the Gretchen Whitmer lockdown?  It isn’t… The difference is who created it.

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During his opening segment today, Fox News host Tucker Carlson discussed the Canadian Freedom Convoy and the results they are achieving.  During a portion of the segment Carlson mentions the YouTube channel ZOT.   Tucker Carlson does a great job outlining the current status of events in/around Ottawa and contrasts the response from the government.  It’s a good segment. WATCH

CANADA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office has indicated the government’s willingness to “respond with whatever it takes,” to bring the trucker convoy protests under control, confirming federal ministers and top Canadian officials are working with U.S. representatives to “resolve” the situation.

This comes as political pressure has been increasing across Canada and in the United States to see the anti-mandate and anti-government blockades end.

Trudeau held a series of late-night meetings on Thursday about the situation, including with key cabinet ministers and senior officials, and opposition party leaders, though no new measures were announced. (read more)

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The people constructing the policies of the Biden administration are the same people who installed him, community activists from Team Obama.  In essence, Joe Biden’s expressed policies unleashed, are Obama term 3 without care for the political fallout.

CNN reports on the results [POLL HERE] and show that exactly what has been discussed here for well over a year. Obama’s ideological crew have pushed disposable Joe Biden directly into the furnace of political consequence.  WATCH:

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the January inflation data [DATA HERE] along with the yearly data from 2021.   The “first round” of retail grocery price increases starts to surface; but this is only the first round.  January inflation was actually much worse than the bad data inside the BLS analysis.

Additionally, the BLS readjusted the weighting for relative price importance, putting added weight to urban economic priorities (ie. food at restaurants), which indicates their intent to downplay the scale of inflation overall.  The topline statistic of 7.5% annual inflation (year over year) is bad; however, because of weighting that figure belies the bigger issue, it’s actually much worse.  In January alone inflation jumped 0.8% (unadjusted), primarily driven by the first-round of 2022 consumer inflation that preexisted since early December 2021.

To give an idea of how much prices have increased, we modified BLS Table 1 to take out some noise.  Look at the single month of January (red box).

Look at January “electricity” price increases.  A jump of 4.5% in one month alone, and keep in mind the BLS puts far less importance on electricity than “food away from home”.

In fact, the weighting for economic importance of restaurants is 5 times greater than the electricity to power your house.

Always keep in mind inflation data is backward looking.  So it is a capture of the price increase at a former moment. In this example the pricing survey was early January.

The timing part is important because gasoline has jumped again since this survey was completed.  The BLS data only has gas increasing at 0.1% in January; in reality it increased much more.

You can see the statistical smoothing to present the softest inflation data by looking at Food at Home, Meats, Poultry and Fish.  The actual rate of inflation in that category is 40%+ at retail.  The BLS deemphasizes the price increase by putting less economic importance on the category and they come up with a 12.2% increase, one third of the actual price we are feeling.

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