The Commerce Department has released the first advanced estimate of retail sales and consumer spending for June. Core retail sales increased 0.7 percent last month (very strong), and 3.8 percent year-over-year; very strong retail sales.
Retail sales is an important component to the U.S. economy as more than two-thirds of our GDP is based from retail sales. In essence, one of the unique attributes to the U.S. economy is that we buy lots of stuff. Actually, the U.S. consumer buys almost three-quarters of everything produced. We are -for the most part- self-sustaining; we do not necessarily need to depend on exports. When the U.S. consumer is buying stuff the internal economy is strong.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in June, pointing to strong consumer spending, which could help to blunt some of the drag on the economy from weak business investment.
[…] Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. Compared to June last year, retail sales advanced 3.4%.

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Earlier today China reported the Chinese economy grew at its lowest rate in 27 years. This report follows additional information of more companies exiting China while the U.S-China trade conflict continues.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the future of USMCA, and the vote decision of Speaker Nancy Pelosi; the ongoing renewed U.S. trade talks with China; President Trump’s Made in America Showcase and the overall state of the U.S. economy.

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Today President Donald Trump is hosting the 3rd Annual Made in America product showcase on the south lawn of the White House.  Anticipated start time 11:45am EST:
UPDATE: Video and Transcript Added

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[Transcript]  THE PRESIDENT: That sounds nice, doesn’t it? Beautiful. Thank you very much. And thank you very much. Terrific talent.  Please sit down. Please.
I want welcome everyone to the White House. We are very excited to be hosting our third annual Made in America Showcase. It’s all about “Made in America.” (Applause.) We just started this, and this is my third already. And I just went around and saw these incredible companies that make everything from the THAAD missiles to beautiful boats. And I said, “How would that boat do against the THAAD missile?” And it wasn’t a good answer. (Laughter.) The boat is going to have a little problem, but that’s okay.
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We had to wait a few weeks to see how the Beijing communists and Xi Jinping hardliners were positioned for new trade talks; and now things make sense.
Initially it seemed at odds with Beijing’s prior position to restart U.S-China trade negotiations with Vice-Premier Liu He.  The prior three months of negotiation came to a collapse when Beijing resoundingly rejected the trade terms organized by Liu He.  If the Red Dragon was so opposed to conciliatory terms, why would team Xi restart with the same negotiator?  Now it makes sense, they didn’t.

China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan has been assigned the role to harden the position of the communist regime and override any panda presentations by Liu He.  Vice-Premier Liu retains the panda mask, but Zhong is the ultimate control agent.  The message within Zhong’s placement tells the true nature of the Chinese position: Trade War !
Beijing attempts to downplay the position of their hard-line commerce addition, but the reality of the re-started trade discussions tells a more fulsome story.  Chairman Xi took the strategically presented bait and is going to engage in full confrontational trade war with President Trump and the U.S. team.

SCMP – The participation of China’s Commerce Minister in the latest trade discussion with the United States was “normal”, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday, playing down the eye-catching change in Beijing’s negotiating team.

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CTH has tracked this issue so closely through the years it often feels futile for another reminder. However, with the insufferable political games in the headlines over the issue of illegal immigrants and children, perhaps it is worth another visit.
There is no greater disconnect from ordinary Americans on any singular issue than the policy positions of Democrats and Republicans in Washington DC surrounding illegal immigration. President Donald Trump is confronting their unified interests.

Understanding The Big Racket.

Massive illegal immigration is supported by both sides of the professional political machine. There are few issues more unifying for the K-Street purchased voices of DC politicians than keeping the U.S. borders open and the influx of illegal aliens as high as possible. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce pays politicians to keep this system in place.
All Democrats and most Republicans support mass immigration. Almost no DC politicians want to take action on any policy or legislation that stops the influx. There are billions at stake. None of the GOP leadership want to actually stop illegal immigration; it’s a lucrative business. Almost all of the CONservative groups and politicians lie about it.
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U.S. President Donald Trump is attending an event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, today to discuss the importance of a North American trade bloc and support the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal.
Anticipated start time approximately 2:25pm EST.
UPDATE: Video Added

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In his former role as U.S. Attorney for the District of Miami Alexander Acosta was one of the senior DOJ officials involved in the Jeffrey Epstein case.  Mr. Acosta has explained his role and justified all the actions of his office over a decade ago.  However, the media and political opponents to the administration are using Acosta to attack the Trump cabinet.
Today President Trump and Labor Secretary Acosta announce the decision to depart from the administration.  President Trump doesn’t want Acosta to resign, but understands he is doing so in order to stop any further distractions to the administration and labor dept.

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[Transcript] THE PRESIDENT: I think he was a great Labor Secretary, not a good Labor Secretary. He’s done a fantastic job. He’s a friend of everybody in the administration. And I got a call this morning, early, from Alex. And I think he did a very good job yesterday. Under a lot of pressure, he did a fantastic job and he explained it. He made a deal that people were happy with, and then, 12 years later, they’re not happy with it. You’ll have to figure all of that out.
But the fact is, he has been a fantastic Secretary of Labor. And Alex called me this morning and he wanted to see me. And I actually said, “Well, we have the press right out here, so perhaps you just want to say it to the press.”
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White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on the U.S.-China trade talks where recontact has been established and now officially restarted. As noted, President Trump is in no hurry; the status-quo is leverage in our favor.
Additionally Director Kudlow discusses the potential benefits of the USMCA trade deal and whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.

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Regarding “inflation” these pundits just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy would reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) consistently confirms our earlier predictions releasing data where inflation is essentially nonexistent.
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President Trump delivers remarks recognizing the successful environmental leadership of the administration and America’s role in leading the world.
UPDATE: Video Added

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Gordon Chang appears on Fox News with Charles Payne (filling in for Bartiromo) to discuss the downstream consequences from the G20 meeting between President Trump and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping.
While he generally frames the picture accurately, lately Chang has been hit or miss.  He accurately outlines how a win/win trade deal is not possible from the perspective of Beijing and their zero-sum outlook; however, he misses on the issues around Huawei; misses the entire hostage dynamic with Kim Jong Un; and then hits again on Hong Kong.

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♦ On China President Trump appears to be working on a complete and total decoupling from the U.S. However, there are steps required in the interim that are in flux (EU and USMCA). Once those matters are resolved we will likely see the decoupling.
♦ On North Korea, just because DPRK state media spouts something doesn’t mean Kim Jong-Un has any control over it.  Beijing has majority influence over DPRK officials.
♦ On Hong Kong, after the Kim hostage rescue; and while the China decoupling is underway; we can expect Hong Kong to be a larger part of Trump’s Indo-Pacific initiative.
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