U.S. District Judge Robert Summerhays has agreed to issue a temporary restraining order [pdf ruling link] blocking the administration’s planned May 23 lifting of the CDC immigration rule known as Title 42.

(MSM) – […] The judge said he agreed to issue the restraining order after holding an online status conference on Monday between lawyers for the states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The details of the order, however, remained unclear — the notice said attorneys for the two sides “will confer regarding the specific terms to be contained” in the order “and attempt to reach agreement.” (more)

NBC is reporting that more than 170,000 illegal aliens, most not from Mexico, are waiting on the other side of the U.S. border for Title 42 to be lifted.

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Given the scale of the stakes for western government; and given the professed intentions of govt-aligned big tech to control the story; it is almost impossible to have an honest and open dialogue on the internet about what is happening in Ukraine.  That said, for those who have been using independent resources to form their own opinion of the events in/around Ukraine, this interview highlights some important aspects.

First, notice how Prime Minister Shmyhal is not the least bit bashful about saying cash is important because American taxpayers, the working American people, have a duty to fund the pensions and retirement accounts of the Ukrainian people, including govt politicians. [03:37] Indeed, much of the financial assistance Joe Biden has been sending to Ukraine (beyond the weapons to support the proxy war) is going toward paying the wages and salaries of corrupt Ukranian leadership.

Let that first point settle in deeply, as we consider how working Americans are being financially destroyed by U.S. monetary/fiscal policy, yet the same U.S. officials wiping out your bank account are funding the bank accounts of people in Ukraine.  Interview WATCH:

Second point.  Notice [06:02] how Prime Minister Shmyhal hedges, pauses and thinks about the response to the question of ‘what is victory’, a stalemate or Russian exit?  In the U.S. proxy war against Russia, Shmyhal is not the person who can answer that question, only the White House can.

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Several people have written to inquire about recent stories surrounding a wave of industrial accidents at food processing plants all over the U.S.  {Zero Hedge Article} {Twitter Questions, Suspicions} {List from Western Standard}

Indeed, there has been a significant increase in fires and explosions from furnaces, industrial fryers, boilers and some other rather odd incidents with aircraft hitting food processing.  The frequency even gathered attention from Fox News host Tucker Carlson.  WATCH:

Addressing the lesser frequent impact incidents from airplanes etc.  Keep in mind that major industrial food processing facilities are generally located around major transportation hubs – large arteries for commercial trucking and railway lines for inbound good deliveries.  These are the same zoned commercial regions where you find small regional airports.

So, let’s put those airplane ‘accidents” aside for a moment and look at the bigger picture.

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Robert Lighthizer was the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) under the Trump administration.  Lighthizer was exceptionally strong in developing and structuring the America First trade policy that included the effective use of tariffs to get fair trade outcomes.

In this video Ambassador Lighthizer discusses the current trade policy of the Biden administration with former National Economic Council Chair Larry Kudlow.  The discussion centers around U.S-China trade policy, the phase-1 trade deal that was interrupted by the pandemic, and the future of the existing trade tariffs against Beijing that Biden is reportedly going to remove.  WATCH:

As noted by Lighthizer, if Biden drops the Chinese tariffs, it will only make the trade imbalance worse and push the U.S. deeper into the cycle of lost jobs and economic contraction.  He’s correct.

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It’s not exactly a confidence builder when the Director of the International Monetary Fund answers the question about forward priorities by saying, “Perhaps we need to pay attention to the law of unintended consequences.”  You had one job Kristalina, one job.

During an International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring debate and discussion segment, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, outlined her perspective against the backdrop of massive inflation caused by the global financial institutions telling government to spend money and they will print it, during COVID.  [The video is prompted to 01:04:50] WATCH:

The discussion included EU Central Bank President Lagarde, US Fed Chair Powell, Indonesian Finance Minister Mulvani – when IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva admitted they channeled their COVID fear and emotions by unsustainably printing money without pausing to think through the consequences.

Now, the world is facing massive inflation, economic contraction, looming hunger, widespread famine and a pending global financial collapse.

Their response? “Whoops.”

Not to worry, they’ll have a little wine and chocolate and figure things out.  Swear.

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The Biden administration is desperate to get to June when they can start to cycle through the anniversary of the 2021 inflation spike beginning and start to see annual inflation comparisons level off.  The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

That’s the unspoken background behind Janet Yellen’s statements to CNBC where she says, “We’ll have to put up with inflation a while longer.”  It’s all about kicking-the-can until the statistical comparisons lessen, nothing more.  WATCH:

When we reviewed the last inflation report at 8.5% we noted, “We will need to watch the service side closely now to see if consumers start to lessen travel, entertainment, and other service side expenses.”  We are starting to get the first signals of serious trouble on the service side now.

(USNews) – […] S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a reading of 55.1 this month from 57.7 in March. That reflected a moderation in activity in the vast services sector.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the International Monetary Fund today he needs $7 billion per month in global subsidy in order to supplement the economic losses currently being incurred.

(VIA CNN) – “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Ukraine needs $7 billion per month in financial assistance to make up for the economic losses from the war. 

In a virtual address to a World Bank forum, Zelenksy also said that it would take “hundreds of billions of dollars” to rebuild his country later. 

He said every country must be prepared to break all relations with Russia and that Moscow should “immediately” be excluded from all international financial institutions including the IMF and the World Bank.” (link)

Plus, “10% for the big guy”.

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There comes a time when ideology runs headfirst into the monolith of unwavering reality.  Today, during a press briefing as a part of the IMF World Bank Meetings [TRANSCRIPT HERE], Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was forced to admit the sanctions against Russia have hurt the EU more than Vladimir Putin and the Russian economy.

Secretary Yellen was asked about the need for increased western government bans against Russian exports.

Yellen was faced with the discomfort of admitting the global market is still open to receiving Russian products, specifically oil and gas, and that banning the EU from receiving those products only drives the EU prices higher, which has already led to unsustainable inflation.

Key Segment:

…”Europe clearly needs to reduce its dependence on Russia with respect to energy. But we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on say oil imports. We want to harm Russia – that would clearly raise global oil prices would have a damaging impact on Europe and other parts of the world. And counterintuitively it could actually have very little negative impact on Russia because although Russia might export less, its price for its exports would go up.”

The EU is already experiencing massive energy price increases.  Yesterday, Germany announced manufacturing price increases of more than 30% following increased energy costs exceeding 80%.  The current western government sanctions against Russia are hitting the EU economy harder than they are hurting Russia as alternative customers (India, China) for Russian energy exports are still purchasing.

In essence, the EU has partly removed themselves as a customer, but the seller, Russia, is still selling; only now they are getting higher prices because the EU and U.S. are disrupting oil and energy production in an effort to chase their climate change goals.

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The German government released their version of the producer price index for inflation, and they are reporting 30.9% inflation for products leaving German factories.  [DETAILS HERE] That’s the highest rate of inflation since shortly after the second world war.

The inflation rate is being driven mostly by energy costs which are more than 80% higher than last year.   However, each nation’s overall inflation rate is also driven by the amount of central bank spending they used during the COVID economic lockdowns.  The more any govt spent on subsidies, the more money they printed, the more they devalued their money and subsequently, the higher their current rate of inflation.

Germany is the largest economy in the European Union.  This level of inflation within Germany has major ramifications.

First, with this level of energy inflation Germany cannot afford to stop purchasing Russian energy products.  There’s no way for Germany to join or increase western sanctions against oil and gas they need to stay sufficient.  Germany is dependent on Russian energy.

Second, with Germany’s economy this vulnerable; and with Germany being so dependent on Russian energy; Germany will have to distance itself further from any Ukraine assistance.   In the background of western voices already being upset with Germany for not providing more support for Ukraine, their economic vulnerability explains their unwillingness.   The U.S. proxy war against Russia does not benefit Germany, at all.

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Lots of people talk about an inflation driven recession.  Essentially, that’s a total economic contraction in the value of goods and services produced, sold and purchased, due to rising prices.   However, as CTH has been pointing out for more than six months, if you subtract the federal COVID infusion money from the overall economy, we have been in a contracting demand economy for almost nine months.

A negative GDP outcome is quite possible, perhaps likely, when the first quarter GDP figures are released on the last Friday of this month.  The most recent sales and economic data shows that U.S. consumers are prioritizing spending and high priced durable good sales are negative.

Now, Fannie Mae is delivering a rather stunning shift in their economic forecast.  In addition to projecting a recession for 2023, these revised home purchase figures are remarkable:

...”We have downgraded our total home sales forecast for 2022 to a decline of 7.4 percent (previously a 4.1 percent decline) followed by a decrease of 9.7 percent in 2023 (previously a 2.7 percent decline).” (link)

That is a very significant change in home sales forecast to the negative position.

We already have serious energy inflation to contend with and low wage growth.  We already know a third inflation wave on highly consumable goods is coming this summer, likely around 30% or more in food prices at the grocery store.

The professional forecasts are always tilted toward the positive for this administration, so this new statement by Fannie Mae should be considered accordingly.  Remember, Boy Scouts motto.

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