The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released Q4 (November) import/export data showing a considerable drop in the U.S. trade deficit. [Release Here] Exports increased approximately .7 percent ($208.6 billion) while imports dropped one percent ($251.7 billion. Lowering the overall trade deficit to $43.1 billion.

While the pundits are surprised at the strong result, it should not come as a surprise to many CTH readers. During Q2 (June) and Q3 (July, Aug, Sept) the rate of GDP growth was impacted -in part- by inflated U.S. purchases as companies bought holiday merchandise earlier than normal. This was an effort to avoid looming tariffs, and as a result companies increased their overall inventory. We predicted Q4 purchases (Oct, Nov, Dec) would be lower specifically because of this backlog of retail inventory.
With the massively successful holiday season now over, those inventories have sold. Specifically because the value of imports are deducted from the GDP calculations, there will likely be a much stronger Q4 GDP growth resulting from less import activity.
The Wall Street financial pundits are too focused on the multinational side of the ledger; and they simultaneously don’t review data from a Main Street perspective; therefore they don’t see -or pretend not to see- the common sense equation staring them in the face.
(more…)
Posted in Auto Sector,
Big Government,
China,
Decepticons,
Donald Trump,
Economy,
Election 2020,
energy,
Environmentalism,
European Union,
Hong Kong,
Legislation,
media bias,
Mexico,
NAFTA,
President Trump,
Trade Deal,
Uncategorized,
US dept of agriculture,
US Treasury,
USA,
USMCA