During his Friday broadcast on HBO, apparently Bill Maher started to catch on to the issue of fake media polling. Maher questions how Biden could be losing big percentages of his core constituency (by demographic), yet suddenly be polling ahead of Trump. It just doesn’t make sense.

Bill Maher: “45% of Hispanic voters prefer Biden, compared to 39% for Trump. Last time, he won 59%. That was 2020. So, he’s lost 14 points there. He went to Morehouse, he said, ‘What is democracy if you have to be ten times better than anyone else to get a fair shot?’ That seems like pandering to me. Black voters under 50, he led by 80 points in 2020. Now, by 37, still a lot, but he’s lost 43 points off the key constituency.”

“Student loans, he’s forgiven $144 billion in student loans, only 36% of student debt holders like it. I mean, If you can’t win the people you’re pandering to — I mean, I get it, politics is somewhat about pandering. That’s not even an insult. You’re supposed to do what people want to a certain degree, also be a leader, but if you’re not winning these groups, and he’s lost 8% off women since 2020. And yet, I read in the polls, he’s pulled ahead this week. Explain that to me.”

There’s nothing to explain.  Media polling has always been manipulated in order to advance a specific narrative.  Obviously, with the Trump New York Lawfare case now concluded with the outcome desired, the media intent is to give the appearance that Trump support has diminished.

Media polling, like the outlets who pay for it, is generally a fake construct.

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A couple of quick hot points from the 2024 presidential race and Trump side of the equation.

♦ First, we can ignore all of the typical pre-debate banter about who is doing what in the lead-up to the Trump v Biden debate.  Every cycle the debate narratives are pushed for clicks and attention; almost all of it is manufactured nonsense and false.

Actual, professional, presidential debate teams do not leak information about their debate prep activity to the media. The only information released is from campaign players who want the other side to see, hear and waste time preparing for imaginary nonsense.  All of the pre-debate stuff, banter, punditry and column inches are one big mind game of misinformation.  Ignore all of it.

♦ Second, the DC system that created Mike Pence as the best option for Trump 2016 is the same system pushing Vance, Rubio and Burgum for 2024.  [Example HERE] The intent with Pence 2016 is the same intent with Vance, Rubio and Burgum ’24.  I’m cautiously optimistic President Trump is well aware of this.

Seriously, how many times have you heard me repeat the warning: NEVER TRUST A NEVER-TRUMPER.  Yet, time and time again people get wooed back, deny their instincts, dismiss the intellectual reality and drop their guard.  Every single time the Trump supporters get burned.

This is not complicated folks.  The Never-Trumpers do not change position, have an awakening, trip over some “come to Jesus” moment, engage in self-reflection, or otherwise evolve to stop thinking that Donald Trump is the end of their world.   Never-Trumpers espoused that opinion, because Never-Trumpers saw value in holding that opinion.  It is simple and should be accepted.

Those who claimed Trump was/is horrible, terrible, egotistical, evil and all the other adjectives to describe their sentiments, do not suddenly have a change in perspective.   What changes them are changes in the instructions they are given.   They begin praising Trump because there is new value in stating that opinion.   NEVER, EVER Trust a never-Trumper.  The stakes are too high.

♦ Third, apparently the secret service is increasing the security detail around President Trump.

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To give some scale as to the descent into weaponized government madness that surrounds us, think about the headline.

Imagine a world where the sitting president of the United States has a national intelligence apparatus giving him advice that his political opponent, and those who support that opponent, should be considered “domestic terrorists.”   Then accept that we don’t have to imagine it, because this is the reality of the current situation.

They started out by saying Trump supporters were extremists, then went through a phase normalizing government hatred by saying unmasked and unvaccinated people should be placed in camps, and now the evolution of Trump supporters and our military being the largest domestic terrorist threat.

[America First Legal] – “exposes how the Biden Administration classifies someone as a person likely to commit “domestic violent extremist” attacks, particularly those who support President Trump, are “in the military,” or are “religious.”  (SOURCE)

These are documents extracted via a FOIA lawsuit against the Biden administration.  Can you imagine the apoplectic “Threat to Democracy” media if these same words of advice were said by a President Trump group about supporters of Barack Obama.

Yet, it is exactly the Obama era shift to fine tune the domestic intelligence apparatus that has created this dynamic.

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Neil Oliver is one of my favorite pundits and voices.  During the COVID-19 nonsense, Oliver was one of the most valuable voices of reason and pandemic narrative destruction.  In this interview with Tucker Carlson, Neil Oliver walks through his great awakening and talks about the ramifications of having the scales dropped from his eyes.

The first several minutes of this video are excellent and the discussion gets deeper and more specific as it goes along.  At around the 17:30 point, there is a very funny dynamic where Neil Oliver doesn’t realize that Tucker Carlson was originally pushing the COVID-19 fraud.  Oliver talks about being targeted by the Vax/Mask/COVID mob without realizing that Carlson was one of the panic pushers; with Carlson famously going so far as to visit Mar-a-Lago and tell President Trump in 2020 that he wasn’t taking the SARS-CoV-2 issue seriously enough.   Neil doesn’t realize it, but Tucker gets very uncomfy and awkward as Oliver asks Carlson how he dealt with the hate.

Neil Oliver has a great way of articulating his thoughts and pragmatically discussing them in a way that permits the viewer to join in the process.  What Oliver describes is the same thing that many of us felt and experienced.  This is a very good interview.  WATCH:

Chapters:
00:00 Neil Oliver
01:07 Conspiracy theorist
10:07 The Great Sorting (COVID)
18:29 What does Democracy really mean?
29:49 Being slandered by the Left is a badge of honor
42:48 The corruption of the media in the UK
48:48 The Scottish hate speech law
1:01:54 Trump and Brexit
1:12:38 Are we heading towards revolution?
1:29:48 Has the American Republic fallen?
1:35:02 The banks
1:48:05 The hero’s journey

After watching this video, I am prone to pose the vaccination resistance question again for a new audience that may have missed it the first time around.

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A Russian person could not visit New York, Chicago and Los Angeles and then say they visited The United States and have an understanding of Americans.  They might think they understand, but any American would giggle at the notion.

Conversely, the same is true in Russia.  You cannot visit Moscow, St Petersburg and Kazan and think you have an understanding of Russians.  However, if you give yourself time, join in the daily tasks and challenges of ordinary Russians, you can easily discover some of the deeper stuff that really puts context on life in the Russian Federation.

Perhaps what follows is a different perspective.

It took a while, but I finally figured out what this phrase “the fatherland” is all about.

Let me start by sharing another phrase that almost every American will find familiar, yet virtually every Russian asked has no reference to comprehend: “you work for us.”

When talking to a federal, state or local government official in the United States and saying, “you work for us,” everyone listening would completely understand your sentiment.  However, in Russia that phrase is akin to asking a Martian for a canoe.   This is the way to understand “the fatherland.”

Within Russia the social compact is organized around the premise (key word “premise“), that government is the father figure within a family – and all of the citizens are children.   The government knows best.  The state engages in all facets, systems and structures as if they are the omnipotent father who cares about the children.

The people of Russia generally accept this system.  Generations and generations of compliant, well behaved, very structured and regimented ideology still permeates.  The muscle memory is deepest in the psychological muscles that run through generations.

Oddly, this social compact is understood, but only understood insofar as the Russian people do not have any other reference point, or alternative system that would enable them to see the deficit in the oppressive system that surrounds them.

The average Russian knows the “West” is different but doesn’t really know why the social system they see outside their window seemingly operates with well-organized randomness.  What is this efficiency within unbridled capitalism you speak of, and why would Americans be willing to give it up?

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Most of the time Fox News builds in plausible deniability; however, this time the notorious Fox News pollster Daron Shaw has gone full bananas on behalf of those who pay him to create polling narratives.

Daron Shaw should be well known to CTH readers {Go Deep}. Shaw has been the Fox News poll manipulator and narrative engineer for over a decade. Knowing the Trump v Biden debate was coming, we knew Fox News would arrange some anti-Trumpism media narrative to capitalize on the predictable corporate theme. However, to see the Fox team make “Threats To Democracy” the #1 concern of voters, is just a talking point too far.

Fox News creating/promoting the “Trump is a Danger to Democracy” narrative via polling, is as predictable as Megyn Kelly and her 2015 “Trump is a sexist” debate narrative. Keep in mind, in order to see the strings on the marionettes you first have to stop pretending the performance is real life. Far too many people are comfortable pretending.

FOX NEWS – […] “The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.” […] The top two issues to voters are the future of American democracy and the economy. Next, stability and normalcy, followed by immigration and health care. Nearly half say abortion and guns will be extremely important to their vote, while closer to one-third feel that way about standing up to elite interests, climate change, and the Israel-Hamas war.  (read more) 

Funnily enough, President Trump can see exactly what they are doing.

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One of the Bidenary impacts to economic analysis and/or economic outcome review has been the inability of any government statistical data to make any sense.

Quite frankly, almost every financial pundit in mainstream media pretends the data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or the Dept of Commerce is accurate.  It’s not, and we all know it.

Just like every other institution in Washington DC, the systems of economic tracking have lost all their credibility.

That said, even with all the pretending intended to prop-up the Biden administration, eventually the results on Main Street are so obvious the data manipulators have to quietly attempt to smooth the disconnect.   This story below is about one small part of that operation.

WASHINGTON DC – […]  Job growth was overestimated by more than 770,000 last year. Put differently, about 1 in 4 jobs that were supposedly added last year never existed. That’s like eliminating all of the jobs gained in three whole months of 2023.

Overly optimistic employment estimates help explain why polling of people’s perceptions of the economy has been so terrible yet the official data from the Biden administration has looked so robust, at least in terms of the number of jobs. Much of the other data has been downright rotten.

With prices rising faster than earnings, the average worker’s weekly paycheck buys 4.4% less today than when President Biden took office. Homeownership affordability has plummeted because the monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home has more than doubled. Three-quarters of Americans now view fast food as a luxury they can’t afford. Gasoline prices are up 46%.

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One of the reasons why YOU are part of The Last Refuge, is that together we accept things as they are – not as we would prefer them to be.

This means you, me, and the larger CTH community, does not have the ability, nor the desire, to pretend.  As a consequence, they, DC, essentially hates us.  Hence, you understand the origin of TLR name.

So, summarizing this story today from the video below. {Direct Rumble Link}  House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has Biden documents…. 3+ million of them…. that were never on the laptop…. that originated within a 2016 FBI investigation of Burisma Holdings in a semi-related fraud case, that the House Oversight Committee is now is sharing with John Solomon… who is generating a brand-new Tick Tock “BOOM” clock, that can be promoted by Bannon.

.

Of course, they could just upload the 3,000,000 pages to a public searchable website, and then let people dig, review, share and discover while pouring sunlight on the entire set of events….  But, then again, that might eliminate Solomon’s “tick tock” time on Hannity.

I digress.

I’m outraged, OUTRAGED I tell ya.

Forgive me!

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This is a remarkable statistic on illegal immigration that Bill Melugin is drawing attention to.

“NEW: Per multiple federal sources, ICE’s non-detained docket has exploded to 7.4 million cases, more than doubling the Trump years, and it’s on pace to hit 8 million by end of year. Each ICE officer now has to manage an average of 7,000 cases each, an impossible task given the agency’s current staffing levels. ICE currently only has roughly 6,000 deportation officers nationwide, and not all of them work on the non-detained docket.”

“The non-detained docket means not in ICE detention. It is made up of migrants who have crossed the border illegally and have been released into the U.S. with pending immigration cases/future court dates, as well as illegal immigrants who have already been ordered deported by an immigration judge but are still in the country.

The non-detained docket has added more than 1 million cases since October 1st, largely due to mass catch and release policies.

Importantly, these numbers do not include the nearly 1.9 million recorded getaways that have entered the US during the Biden administration, as they have had no contact with DHS – yet overstretched ICE officers are also responsible for tracking down and removing this population as well.

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It is a very unfortunate situation any time you can easily spot manipulation that is taking place on behalf of hidden interests.

In this example today TPUSA was pushing the results of a poll from this past weekend.

Charlie Kirk and his organization claim that JD Vance won the straw poll of 1,600 attendees to the TPUSA event. However, as quickly identified, the only options presented to the audience were JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and Doug Burgum.  Somewhat of a self-fulfilling presentation.

[SOURCE]

Why only four candidates? According to Charlie Kirk and his pollster Richard Baris, those are the final four as determined by them and media.

Something just didn’t smell right. Lots of media articles have other names including Kari Lake, Ben Carson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Lee Zeldin, Michael Flynn, Devin Nunes, Ron DeSantis and many more. So, what exactly was the agenda of TPUSA and by extension, Richard Baris.

Well, for his participatory role, it appears Richard Baris was only a tool who polled the audience based on names Charlie Kirk gave him.  Then when you consider that Charlie Kirk had already publicly claimed J.D. Vance was the best choice for vice-president {SEE HERE}, the pre-selected names appeared to be chosen to create a specific outcome, ie “the illusion of choice.”

JD Vance won the TPUSA poll because Charlie Kirk wanted J. D Vance to win the poll.  Richard Baris delivered the data to support it by using a pre-filtered candidate list that only included 4 names.

After being called out for the manipulative tactics, their attempts at justification ended up just being silly. [SEE HERE].  The narrative engineering fiasco would be embarrassing and shameful if the issues were not serious.

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