Lots of people talk about an inflation driven recession. Essentially, that’s a total economic contraction in the value of goods and services produced, sold and purchased, due to rising prices. However, as CTH has been pointing out for more than six months, if you subtract the federal COVID infusion money from the overall economy, we have been in a contracting demand economy for almost nine months.
A negative GDP outcome is quite possible, perhaps likely, when the first quarter GDP figures are released on the last Friday of this month. The most recent sales and economic data shows that U.S. consumers are prioritizing spending and high priced durable good sales are negative.
Now, Fannie Mae is delivering a rather stunning shift in their economic forecast. In addition to projecting a recession for 2023, these revised home purchase figures are remarkable:
...”We have downgraded our total home sales forecast for 2022 to a decline of 7.4 percent (previously a 4.1 percent decline) followed by a decrease of 9.7 percent in 2023 (previously a 2.7 percent decline).” (link)
That is a very significant change in home sales forecast to the negative position.
We already have serious energy inflation to contend with and low wage growth. We already know a third inflation wave on highly consumable goods is coming this summer, likely around 30% or more in food prices at the grocery store.
The professional forecasts are always tilted toward the positive for this administration, so this new statement by Fannie Mae should be considered accordingly. Remember, Boy Scouts motto.
Be Prepared!
It’s going to be quite the ride!
Not the fun roller coaster ride where you put your hands in the air and scream with excitement.
More like the turning pale and throwing up type ride.
Aka OBlather years again 😡
While home sales will collapse, new housing units will be in a multi-year building boom. It will just be in “affordable” and homeless housing.
This is BBB or public/private partnership. If you live in a big blue city, take a look around.
But it will be high density to reduce their need for travel, just like all their other super successful “housing projects” like those in Chicago, Philadelphia, New York and Oakland. The only difference is they will put them in good middle class neighborhoods because of EQUITY.
Eastern Europe and all of the Soviet Block countries have shown our Great Leader the Way!
Can you imagine a Cabrini-Green #2 in Chicago during this day and age?
I think today the only difference is the whole south side of the city is cabrini green 2
They are putting them in small towns also…
When they go over budget and the city has no money to bail out the projects, the people and tradesmen will take over.
The Communist Highrise, they love building them.
In my city, they have new chicken coop apartments now on every other block. Everything is new apartments.
Those go with the chicken soup lines that will forming soon. 😳
Same in Boise, Idaho.
The citizens of Boise need to do everything in their power to stop that from happening. The crime will explode and Boise will become unlivable.
Here comes Section 8 (and all that that entails) to a neighbourhood near you
Thankfully, there will be no Section-8 housing near our domicile in the Ozark Mountains.
We left the freaks in Austin (just the city council and their ilk, not the good folks that live there.)
There is not a traffic light one in this area. Lot’s of beautiful mountain scenery, though.
Being a Texas gal and a UT grad, I couldn’t agree more. My son and family live just out of Austin. Too near but not in, which would be infinitely worse. I lived for years and years in mountains such as the beautiful ones you are fortunate enough to live in, but not in this country.. Smart choice. So good for the soul. Congrats on a very wise move.
…then the bus full of Biden Border Buddies shows up in the middle of the night…
Never more important than now.
Thanks Brandon.
Home sales are an odd barometer.
People are not selling houses.
What would be more interesting is NEW home sales, because developers build houses for sale.
Current homeowners are no incentivized to sell their homes, no matter how much they are offered, when they can not find a replacement home.
Indeed, fewer home sales can easily lead to higher prices.
I’m putting my house on the market for $2.3 million. If going to be buy another home, I’ll make damn sure it’s worth it!
Otherwise, KISS my A$$. I’m very happy where I’m at. Free and clear.
I had 3 offers on my house the first week at list price or slightly above. But everythng I found on Zillow or Realtor.com was already under contract. The real estate jerk kept saying “Don’t worry, you’ll find something.” He wants that 50K REAL bad. A month and a half later…nothing. Getting close to taking it off the market.
I had a local broker look at our house… which is nice on the outside, but really nice in the inside… think Engineer designs a house: awesome functionality, no wasted space, good electrical system, network, water pipes, gas pipes, kitchen, bathrooms, well placed windows, private areas in/out, etc… no foofoo… so from the outside you really have no clue how nice the inside is. You see, we rebuilt it, not remodeled it. It took 3 years.
So, pretty much that means that very homes have the goodies we have, so the broker gave me a number… people are selling their homes, precious few, at 1000+ per square foot nowadays. we got quoted 1200+ per square foot.
But then, if we bought another one, it would run $700K++ to rebuild it to our standards. But nothing is on sale.
Our broker told us it made no sense for us to sell, just stay put until you decide, if ever, to go out of State… far, far away.
He’s an honest guy. We’re both from the Old Country. Although Barça is much better than AC Milan… he agrees. 😉
BTW, the selling fee nowadays is down to 3%. And the brokers are getting multiple offers over list. Often 15% more. So the brokers lucky to get the sell listing are getting $50K… easy. The buy side brokers I guess are just happy to get any money, $10K is what they get.
Don’t fall for it.
Blackrock has bought everything. I get calls from women (mostly) who want to know if I want to sell my home. So do other Grandmas that I know.
If we don’t recognize the number, the phone remains unanswered.
And there it is! Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
In my area, you are better off underpricing your home and then letting the offers take you to 15%++ above that number.
If you get greedy, the house will take a month to sell, if not, you’ll sell it in a weekend, and likely for more.
I have seen that as used home prices have skyrocketed, some people are listing their homes at WTF prices… with really nothing to justify the price but sheer greed.
There are two such homes in my tract of 600 homes, they’ve been listed for two/three weeks. But two more that were listed at reasonable prices received lots of offers and sold at 20% over listing in a weekend.
We FSBO our house last June. We put a sign in front of the house and another down on the main drag. That was the only advertising we did. Sold in less than 24 hours. Phone rang off the wall with people offering ridiculous sums over asking. We did NOT pay any realtor fees.
We were an hour outside of Atlanta. People moving out of blue states and the metro Atlanta area are flocking to NE Georgia. Crazy!
They are flocking to Western NC also and are now starting to attack South Carolina.
Kudzu Zombie Buyers!!!!
Stay in the market. Buy quickly or you get priced out. Even at $2.3 M.
The developers around here are building units as fast as they can push the imported workers to work. Our area has always been subject to booms and busts in real estate. I feel a bust coming.
When you say units, are you talking Apartments?
years ago, we knew when a housing market was going to collapse in prices, we would see and abundance of apartments going up.
Mid Fl am seeing both. More single family now starting to see more condos as well. 3 or 4 apartment units going up but prices are nuts.
I don’t know where VibeMan is but I am in western WA by Tacoma.
They are building apartment complexes like crazy here.
Everytime I venture out there are more lots being cleared and apartments going up.
I used to live in the middle of nowhere and now it’s getting close to the middle of somewhere.
Sad.
Can see the housing situation in Western Washington developing a few months ahead of what happens in Eastern Washington. A really strong indicator of the increase in apartment construction is the huge increase in storage units being built. People that live in apartments usually don’t have room for all of their “stuff”. Look around at the number of storage units being built. There are likely more more of these units going up than apartments.
Pinellas County Fl is mostly condos/storage and eateries, now.
Ready made ghettos.
Worked in the building on the lake. 737 plane.
Was nice at the park until they put that monstrosity of a hotel next to the plant
I know Lake Desire Beautiful place in the 60’s.
Central Kentucky.
That’s where the Somalians are going to live.
The illegals being escorted over the border by this administration will be housed in these future slums. This is exactly what they did when they brought in Somalian’s and put them in apartment complexes in Kent, WA. This time they are bringing in so many, they are building them new apartments and placing them all over the State. We now get to provide them with Cash, Food, Medical, housing, smart phones, and in Washington state internet services.
All of the above. Apartments by the hundreds and subdivisions fr0m 1/10 acre high density with 300 units to gated communities with $1 million houses and everything in between. This is in a college community of about 100,000 residents. It does not make sense.
People who don’t even understand intuitively know to have hard assets in these times. Same thing in Canada, multiple offers over list, and fast. Where to go? I am a dual, thinking hard about Florida.
I am in Western Washington. I own the property I live on. It has two homes on it. I live in one and my son, daughter in-laws and grandkids live in the other. We want out of this State so bad…it is insane how much this State government hates American’s but especially white Christians. We unfortunately are now priced out of Idaho and Montana.
Yep.
Yeah there can be lowered sales due to lack of availability while actual prices increase. Especially when the fed gives blackrock interest free money to buy up everything they can. That distorts the market even further.
I am seeing more “For Sale” signs on houses up in my Norcal neighborhood and they are not selling. So, chances are prices are coming down if the seller is motivated or needs to sell. Also, those who bought lately at higher interest rates will not be able to sell at a profit for some time. That would include Blackrock and friends, who may eventually want their money out for other things.
If I have learned anything it is that the “Masters of the Universe” as the Hedge Fund profiteers in the 70’s and 80’s and 90’s liked to think of themselves eventually fail. 40l K money has made them a huge security cushion, but don’t under estimate the greed and hubris that will eventually bring it all down.
The sale of theglut of their assets will undoubtedly drive the market down again.
People in California are sell for 30 to 30% over asking price to get out of the Communist Democrat hellhole. Fact.
A vicious cycle nobody can afford!
Cities and towns are doing aggressive assessments now based on the housing boom and increasing property taxes to tax unrealized appreciation, which is putting pressure on fixed income seniors.
Texas limits the property tax increase for a homestead to 10 percent, but my tax statement showed that otherwise, the county increased my property valuation by about 33 percent. This is true for both my homestead and my vacation property. In other words, I can expect several thousands of dollars more for property taxes on my vacation property. That’s gonna hurt, and we have already started to cut back on expenses accordingly.
There should be some kind of limiting mechanism on intake of property taxes. At this point, they have become a slush fund thats is completely unrelated to any gov’t functions related to property maintenance. None.
My wife and I have been looking to buy in southern Wisconsin. In one place we looked, the property taxes had doubled in just one year, and that was 3 years ago.
Wisconsin law allows a walk-through inspection to determine if the valuation should be higher, which is what they claim happened to cause the taxes to double.
In looking at assessments, we found that many counties around the US are now out-sourcing this to third parties. The treasurers office could not provide information on the property we were looking at, and referred us to this third party. The third party just wanted to make excuses for why the taxes were so outrageous. They even had the acreage they were taxing wrong. I am sure there is incentive for the third party to assess so high, and it conveniently removes complaints going to those elected to oversee this process.
We did find out they assess every year, assess to 100% of what they think is the market value, and even admitted to us they base that market value off of LIST PRICE for houses in the area. It did not matter if the house sold for the list price.
My wife and I passed on the property. It had been sitting for sale for 4 years because of the price and the taxes. There is no way we would have been able to afford the taxes in five years if they kept increasing by such outrageous amounts.
We have looked at several properties since then, and all of them are selling in less than a week. Many within 24 hours have offers on them.
Our real estate agent told us the problem is people are not qualifying for the financing to buy at these prices. She said their “fallout” rate (those who can’t qualify) was 30%…the highest she has ever seen, and she has been in real estate for a number of years.
Sell one!
You know, for the time being that’s one of the big things keeping us put in SoCal.
Weather, location, cuisine, weather, location, Prop 13…
Oh, the CA politicos are drooling over the prospect of getting rid of Prop. 13.
If you were there when Prop 13 was passed, there was another prop on the ballot, Prop. 8, sponsored by Peter Behr, and long-term, would have been better for homeowners than Prop. 13.
But people were SO PISSED OFF by the time the election came aeound, that they wanted to just stick it to the greedy local gov’ts.
The outcome has been that homeowners have been hosed when selling & buying a new property, but business owners, especially if they owned the property longterm, have done quite well.
They want us in those high rise apartments!
About 6-8 mos ago, my sister considered selling her home, and began fixing all the little annoying things she would need to fix, to sell it.
Guaged the market, had her asking price but then, just as you say she looked, and couldn’t find anything to buyto replace it.
After fixing it up, decided to stay where she is.
I bought one in st Joe beach 2 years ago. 3 blocks to the beach. Spent most of a year completely rebuilding it mostly by myself. Ran it as a vacation rental for a year but was disappointed by my piece of the gross. Everyone else made money.
so when the realtor started fishing around saying someone wanted to buy it I asked how much? When they answered I said bring me a contract …. We close next Monday barring any unseen problems.
im hoping put the windfall aside for a year and see what opportunities look like then. A bit worried about inflation and having a bunch of cash idling , but we’ll see what happens.
Home sales in the Twin Cities are fantastic. It’s hard to find anything 🙁
I find it all very curious. I suppose people just aren’t selling but I think it’s weird that supply has ground to a halt. And prices exploding everywhere. It’s odd. Cars, houses – scarce and expensive.
many second homes and tens of thousands who can no longer afford home-unemployed , once in a lifetime opportunity , work remote , new health issues………..
Sorry pal – you must live in a looking glass ?
I’m putting my house on market because I can cash in BIGLY and move where it’s cheaper – how often can you make a windfall in life? Sales are super hot In SW Fla but not so much where I’m looking .
And hence, only new home sales are included in GDP.
Paragraph appears below the final graph in the linked article…
“We expect new home sales and single-family housing starts to remain comparatively resilient in the near term, in part due to a heightened level of homes currently under construction and high order backlogs. Additionally, most publicly traded homebuilders report considerably higher gross margins recently than what is typical, suggesting that even with some price softening relative to input cost growth, builders will be willing to supply more homes. While the lack of existing homes for sale will still support new home demand, the above-mentioned “lock-in” effect and worsening affordability will eventually weigh on new sales as well. The most recent reading of homebuilders’ sentiment showed continued strong current expectations for sales, but the index fell sharply for the six-month outlook. While the level was still elevated, indicating good market conditions, the change was one of the largest in series history. We forecast new home sales and starts to soon peak but remain elevated before declining more meaningfully into 2023.”
If you’re a working class American citizen looking to buy a new home, you are rightly and truly screwed. They hate us.
You got 16 cents off hot dogs last summer …… don’t be greedy !
( where are all those pets from Shanghai going ? just saying )
pretty scary thought . . .will stick to kosher dogs!
Chinese butcher looks at you sideways. Slaps a Kippah on a poodle and whips out his meat cleaver.
Are those dogs approved by Michelle Obama? Don’t under- estimate Joe’s ability to screw things up.
Another reason why I read today Fed may bump rates by 75 basis points
They know the numbers are going to be ugly and less and less of the American people are accepting this is all because of Ukraine.
They know that is one huge Pinnochio.
The Fed is trapped and we are going to see a Paul Volcker moment.
Here is J. Powell during questioning;
Testifying before Congress earlier this month, Jay Powell was asked if the Federal Reserve was prepared to “do what it takes” to get inflation back under control — and if necessary, follow in the footsteps of his venerated predecessor, Paul Volcker, who regained price stability “at all costs”.
Calling the late Volcker “the greatest economic public servant of the era”, Powell responded: “I hope history will record that the answer to your question is yes.”
Source – https://esgtelegraph.com/latest-news/jay-powell-channels-his-inner-paul-volcker-with-tough-stance-on-inflation/
“Look, there is no federal solution”
But there sure was a federal cause.
The rumplestiltskin economy (borrowed from another poster).
Diesel hit $5.05 a gallon in western CO today.
POTATUS tried releasing a couple drops from the SPR, and it had no effect. He then decided to release a million bpd from the SPR, and it appears it had little effect. Now, someone has decided the climate change nitwits should be ignored and exploration leases are being let in 7 states.
It’s far too late for this tinkering around the edges to avoid the outcomes of their marxist activities.
It would be somewhat less infuriating if we had political representation loudly fighting back against them.
And the SPR is bound for europe, if I understood that correctly. Fubar.
It’s been as high as $5.39 here in the Northeast.
About 30 miles west of Cape Cod.
Recently, about 5.09 average.
No cars. No private home ownership. This is not a surprise! These will be unaffordable soon to many of us
It raced to about $4.85 a gallon here fairly quickly, and seemed to average from $4.80-$4.95 from Colorado to Wisconsin a few weeks ago…and stayed there.
Releasing a million bpd and sending it to Europe explains why it jumped again.
Now with them adding ethanol to the gas, it will destroy the engines and make them useless in three years. Evil bastards.
Exactly…and we don’t
Amen
Those leases were only let pursuantto a Court order, and so they jacked up the price, to make them untenable; that was a ruse, it was NOT them making any concessions.
They are far too deep in their own muck, to try to back away now; once you “jump the shark” as they have, there is no going back.
Then they will stall approval of drilling permits.
I couldn’t believe this when I read it this morning. How stupid to sell our strategic supply, emergency stores to Europe. It is planned to keep us enslaved with no alternatives. Thank you PDJT for our reserves, even if FJB sells it to Europe.
Yes, but they jacked the royalties on the leases, and there is no infrastructure to move the production. Window dressing only.
These people are evil–period!
Yep. This administration is at war with Americans and our Conservative representatives are right there with them.
We all should at least understand by now, this is definitely not a war between Russia and Ukraine, goodness no… This is a battle that a “woke” country is willing to sacrifice all of us just to retain complete control over the world.
We are in the final stages of a complete collapse and China will be the financial capital of the world. It won’t happen tomorrow or next year, but it’s coming.
If you think this is totalitarianism now, just wait. By that, I don’t mean China, I mean you know who…
Despite them being called “Globalists” and perhaps THINKING they “Control the World”; they really don’t.
They CONTROL U.S. E.U. (to some degree) and five eyes.
There control in Africa, ME, INDIA, Russia, Brazil, and many parts of the World is tenuous to non-existent.
And the rest of the World has gotten fed up with their B.S. and aren’t taking it, any more.
Exactly. Thank you for stating that. They may “think” they run things, but 8B people worldwide know otherwise.
China has problems of their own.
Stay frosty
Understood. But I’d rather stay a bit warmer. Lets bring on the summer heat.
If they are forecasting lower home sales that means lower demand due to a mix of fewer buyers (priced out of market), high mortgage rates (borrowers priced out of mortgage lending) or increased inventory (not likely due to supply chain issues). Wouldn’t that mean home values would start to come down and people would lose equity?
You would think so, but the Milwaukee assessor just announced that home assessments will rise by about 18%. That way they can lower the tax rate and still bump up the actual property tax. Been to this rodeo before.
Thankfully FL has a homestead thing they can only raise 3 % a yr max, you can take it with you one move after that back to new market rate so we are staying where we are.
I get calls and text messages blocked by my phone multiple times a day almost every day from someone wanting to buy my house as-is for full market value. It has been happening for over a year. I’m not sure what that says about the housing market.
Retired Magistrate here: Same thing here in Delaware county, Ohio. We get calls and flyers in the mail. So far the market around here is really hot. Even if we were to sell, the prices on what is available is high and the quality leaves a lot to be desired especially in the new builds.
So we will stay put.
I’m right near you in Columbus, so maybe it’s an Ohio thing? I have zero interest or incentive to sell, but they keep calling.
That’s a big part of the lower home sales issue. Major investment firms, Black Rock and the like are snapping up everything for sale at any price…not for resale, but to corner and control the market. These homes will be available to rent when we are all priced out of the market or forced into communal living.
This. People can’t afford to pay 10 bucks a 2×4 to build new. Existing homes are selling fast and over list becuase not enough inventory. We’re closing on a house next week that had 24 offers in 24 hours. We’re lucky we got the bid.
As I have mentioned before…all real estate is local. You can’t broad brush the overall housing market.
It’s all about Red and Blue States…Blue States will suffer tremendously over the next few years. Red States not so much due to the influx from blue states coupled with relocations from these areas.
Real problem is lack of materials to build houses…in effect this is a governor on the market. Prior to cvid it took 130 days to build a house…now it is 270. In the South there is labor (hispanic) and they work hard yet materials is the problem. Not sure about the labor issue in blue states. Regardless there is a lack of product in red states due to the influx and will not let up.
Interest rates will rise…it was inevitable…yet this is the state of the market.
Agree 100%.
Blue state voter need to return to the table they built and eat the crap sandwiches they trying to feed to the rest of us..
In the south much of the labor is subpar. Below mediocre. They are day laborers and you’ll be stuck with a money pit if you buy new construction, fixing all the problems.
Blue staters should have to sign an affadavit swearing to leave their politics behind, they are so stupid, they really don’t know what caused the problems back home.
When the blue staters come to those red states remind them over and over again what policies impacted the state they left. Then have them watch a couple documentaries on YouTube by Eric Johnson. The first one is ‘Seattle is Dying’ and ‘Fight for the Soul of Seattle’. And it is now even worse!
Lack of product in red states is not only due to influx it’s purposeful just as incoming food shortages.
It is another ingredient for the planned chaos.
With immigrants coming in the thousands weekly the homeless rate will be staggering.
I picture govt. pointing their fingers at “the gluttons” that have spacious homes they “don’t need any longer.”
There maybe a push for mandating you sell that oversized house and that will be after gas, water and food becomes so expensive, many will have no choice anyway.
Bottom line the goal is the average citizen will no longer own their residence because of the cost, supply, and societal norms will dictate that’s the new way of life in USA (that’s where media and this twitter concern comes in. Govt. can’t have the citizens discussing and protesting in massive numbers).
I sold my rental property last October at the peak of the prices here. Sometimes I get lucky. Sometimes I get God’s providence.
Since my luck choosing investments is usually pretty bad, I give God the credit for this one. We put it on the market and got an offer $10k over the asking price. Was under contract within a week of listing.
“We already know a third inflation wave on highly consumable goods is coming this summer, likely around 30% or more in food prices at the grocery store.”
We have returned to the old ways of our grandparents by avoiding debt, raising our own food and banding together with like minded family and friends. Things are going to be tough but it will bring out the best in us and model a responsible, sustainable lifestyle for our grandchildren.
If interest rates truly go up, perhaps people who SAVE $, will be rewarded, once again.
That would be refreshing, rewarding “good” behavior?
We paid off our home. We are also communal living on a piece of property with family. We all have our own homes. We have chickens, a garden and very little debt. We help each other. This is the only way to survive under a Biden regime. I am 5 years away from retirement and praying my pension and social security will still be available, otherwise I will probably have to work until the day I die.
This is my wheelhouse. Right now in Las Vegas my pre-approved home buyers are seeing seven to eight offers that they have to compete with. I spoke to a fellow loan officer in Phoenix who said 25 offers on a well priced home is quite common. I think there will be two separate and distinct Real Estate markets in the U.S. They will be made up of places that people are escaping to versus those that people are escaping from. I escaped from California to Nevada almost four years ago and haven’t looked back.
My daughters home went on the market on a Friday afternoon, she had 17 offers before 3 pm Saturday.. all were over the asking price.. The showing was appointment only, there were traffic issues in the neighborhood from all the people trying to tag a long on the showings.. The Realtor had to call in for another helper.. They did keep the the Sunday noon to 3 appointments as a courtesy.. she got 25k over asking and they waved all inspections
Hi Janeka. What area if i may ask?
We are already in a recession and have been for several months. Covid stimulus is hiding it.
Netflix stock has crashed!
Yes…
-25% in after-hours trading after earnings report.
Lost 200k net subscribers in Q1.
Maybe no one wanted to watch obama
I always thought Netflix paying the Kenyan was just a way for him to hide the corrupt kickback cash from all of the shady “foreign aid” scams he was behind.
Preach.
We’re all experiencing the pain in the present economy and the gloom and doom forecasts becoming reality.
But what happens next?
How do we go from the present to anything better? Is it just a matter of changing political leadership and policy? Or are paradigm shifts necessary in the basic tenets of our economy and geopolitics? Technological leaps?
Does it seem that a reset of some sort is gonna be necessary?
If Trump is elected in 2024, how does he turn it around, and what does that picture look like? And how do we get prepared for that?
If elected in 2024, Trump may have to do a reset of his own. It will hurt, but we’ll like the outcome better than the WEF’s reset.
Trump needs to implement a hiring freeze at the Federal level on day one, then make every agency, division and administration reduce their cost by 5% each year. Move all administration, agencies out of D.C. and scatter them across the Country, get congress to end birth right citizenship and chain migration. End all federal handouts to illegal immigrants and do away with immigration status of asylum, refugee and victims of trafficking (those are all being abused). Build the f’ing wall. Fine all business $10,000 for every illegal hired, per offence and make them pay the fine. Declare English our office Government language. Do not provide translation or interpreter services except in Hospitals. Make sanctuary cities illegal and end all federal money going to cities providing sancuary. Terminate welfare benefits after 5 years like it is supposed to be. Today if you feel to fat to work, they waive the requirements to be off welfare. No one in blue states are terminated after 5 years.
Keep in mind we are playing with monopoly money. The government with assistance from the FED has destroyed the value of the dollar. Numbers going up big is inflation. Stocks, bonds inflated first. They will pop first, bond market down double digits from the beginning of year, stocks still down year to date.
There is NO inflation.
O.K. there is inflation , but it’s ‘ Transitory ‘
Inflation has now peaked , experts say.
*********** you are here ************
next:
Inflation has continued due to Putin , Trump’s mean Tweets , and you’re racist ……
Well, that news just ruined supper…………….
The decade!
yep
There was MERS in 2008. This time it will be THEIRS.
Buy your neighborhood two years after the foreclosure wave.
Show Blackrock how you roll.
Gawd, I hope this happens in Florida>>>> FAST.
Best to be aware of who runs your county, and if you can, run for office.
FL politics are like Huey Long, LA, in the 30s…We had 7 of our county commissioners go to prison in the first 10 years I lived there.
Local gov’t is important. Make a difference where you land!
We are being harassed with 3-6 calls a day wanting to buy our home.. None of the callers speak English as a first language.. If those that accept these offers don’t already have other properties to move to they are in for a couple big surprises..
This seems like the last boom/bust where no one could afford to buy their own house.
15-20 years ago, cities accepted tens of millions in cash to sign on to the UN’s Agenda 2030. Look it up. And where’d that money go?
Bush one signed up for UN Agenda 21. You are correct this is all about those agreements. They all lead to complete control of people and depopulation. No one takes the time to read it. They want us out of our cars and living in the cities in 560 square foot apartments in mixed use buildings. They get you out of your cars by making it expensive and inconvenient to own one. The entire blueprint is in those documents.
There are dishonest mortgage people who make a big income getting mortgages for ILLEGALS. Maybe for FHA loans, TAXPAYER INSURED. BY US.
Then they get deported, loans not paid and WE PICK UP THE DIFF.
I had a couple of wonderful friends, who had saved for years to buy a house, kept their credit clean, and were able to buy a modest house in a new development. Come to find out, many of their neighbirs homes were bought on liar loans by illegals.
When they crash came, the neighborhood went into foreclosure, all the illegals’ relatives came to live in those homes, and it turned into a slum.
My friends lost their home, and they were middle aged. And lived in a migrant slum.
😲
More likely helping them into former family homes turned to rentals by Blackrock.
If they can’t put Section 8 housing in your suburb, they’ll just buy your houses and slip ’em in that way.
When I bought my first home in 2009 in northern Virginia, the financial questions asked and the financial documents required were numerous.
I asked my loan officer how it is that illegals can afford to buy houses without income and other financial documentation (savings, debt load, etc).
He said illegals pool their welfare checks and the total is considered income to qualify for a home loan. It was a much simpler process for them than it was for me. Go figure.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this or worse is still happening across the country.
The pothead dullard who was at the helm 2009-2017 responded to Trump talking about raising the GDP “how’s he going to do that . . . does he have a magic wand” is no doubt equally mystified by supply chain logistics, petroleum refining and the housing industry.
If the pothead dullard is truly the person running things in the background for President Biden then shouldn’t it be time pretty soon for people to say, “you’ve lost your marble mind”.
Its NOT Obummer; as you say he’s a pothead, a dillatente, groomed to play a role, just like Bush was.
We do NOT have “3 co-equal” branches of Govt.
POTUS is, and has been for many years, largely a figurehead position; the center of Power is in Congress, primarily in the Senate.
Tip of the Club.
I am a former home and apartment builder. I have seen and been through several housing market cycles. The present cycle is being highly manipulated just as is the Stock Market, IMO.
One thing to consider is refinance your home and get tax free cash based on the present inflated home values. However, this requires a degree of sophistication, professional guidance and understanding.
Using real data, instead of the government’s fake numbers, we’ve been in an economic contraction the better part of 20 years: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts.
CBDC and universal income incoming in 3-2-1….
I have been trying to warn people this was coming. I know people (including family) who bought homes recently way over what the home was assessed for and what the seller was asking. Being former Military, we have seen this market before and were almost caught up in a housing market tank in early 90s. We literally sold our home and missed it by one month. Others were not so lucky. They were stuck with the homes that they could not sell for years and they had high mortgages. I also had the same situation when my father died 14 years ago. My family took 9 months to sell his home and the market sank quickly in the meantime. We sold it at a lower rate than what it was 9 months earlier.
There is only one home for sale sign in my neighborhood, and it sold in about 10 days. I don’t see any new signs out, and that is unusual for spring. Prices are through the roof, and I’d consider retiring on the sale of my main home if I didn’t know that inflation has already made that near impossible.
Consider retiring to Mexico. There are safe areas, enough English-speakers that you wouldn’t need to know Spanish, and for the foreseeable future, can have a good quality of life. Close to kids and grandkids. And to use your Medicare, if its still around past 6 years.
We want out of Washington State so bad. I couldn’t convince the rest of the family to sell and move 2 years ago when we could get a great price here and buy reasonable in Idaho or Montana. Now we are priced out of the market. Plus with interest rates going up you are adding another $200 to $400 to a mortgage just in interest. It doesn’t make sense to sell now.
“The most recent sales and economic data shows that U.S. consumers are prioritizing spending and high priced durable good sales are negative.”
I guess Telsa battery powered cars will have to be purchased by Joey!
How much are printing machines!? Asking for a friend.
Add to the mix – new high density housing requirements.
The zoning laws/ regulations will be fiddled with to import urban parasites to your suburban/ rural areas by forcing the construction of ‘affordable housing’.
By strangling permits and twisting lenders arms even further (no/low doc loans) – they achieve what they want.
And anyone who complains will be hit with the Racist tropes.
Go to National Review, Stanley Kurtz, on “Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing”, find the videos talking about Rob Astorino’s struggle to keep it out of Weschester County in NY,the millions they had to spend to fend off HUD.
Passed as “rule” in 2015, only fixed under P. Trump. It WILL be revived under the hand of that criminal Becerra who has NO qualifications to be HUD secretary).
Terrifying…
Red States need to do everything they can to prevent this. They should also consider doing away with Temporary Assistance to Needy Families at the Federal level and create a State program that they control the rules for. This will allow them to declare English as their State Government language. Then they can make the rules to only allow US citizens to be eligible, must be a resident of the state and only eligible for 2 years and any benefits they received in another state count toward that 2 year time limit. Illegals avoid states that don’t make it easy to get benefits.
”We have downgraded our total home sales forecast for 2022 to a decline of 7.4 percent (previously a 4.1 percent decline) followed by a decrease of 9.7 percent in 2023 (previously a 2.7 percent decline).” (link)
The 2022 decline accelerated approximately by 1.8x and the 2023 decline accelerated approximately by 3.6x. Which is a doubling 1.8 to 3.6.
Like to plot these lines for greater visual impact.
I’ve been really disturbed today after reading that they are selling our strategic reserves to foreign countries. Thats on top of shutting down oil production and restrictions on fertilizer at this time of year!
This is all connected. Is It only to make us poorer? I could handle poverty. Is it to freeze us out next winter? People will die. Is it to make us so weak that some foreign entity ( with insider help) could take advantage?
I was feeling afraid this morning.
But I watched 5 hawks soaring higher and higher just now while listening to a Celtic version of Amazing grace. How beautiful.
I feel better now.
“Twas grace that brought me safe thus far and grace will lead me home.”
He is and will always be our only Hope.
The Fed will push for a forty-year mortgage before the end of the year.
It’s funny money, don’t get too excited about home prices way up. This is the rolling bubble of $ 9 trillion extra dollars in the system. Stocks, bonds bubbled first now getting hit, will be followed by homes.
My last big endeavor is to setup and install the solar panels I’ve bought this past year. Batteries and transfer switch are set to arrive this week.
Plan to run non-essentials off solar while providing the capability to run as much as possible during power outages. I installed a pellet stove last March. Saved about 40/mo on electric bill for the worst 4 months this winter.
FJB.
Just signed the lease for a home to rent for a year. We’ve decided to put our So Cal home of 26 years on the market in the next 2 weeks, and want to take our time to find the right place out of state when I retire at the end of the year. Hopefully we’re selling at the top and we’ll be able to take advantage of lower prices in 7-8 months. Not too worried about interest rates at that time since we’ll be paying cash.
I figured if we didn’t get out now, we’d be stuck for 5 more years while things recovered.
Bob: don’t take this personal, as I’m sure, as a Treeper, you are a conservative voter:
Please don’t come to Idaho. In addition to Black rock buying up single famiky homes, another huge problem we have is the number of Californians who sell their homes for huge $$, move here, and pay ALL CASH for a home (and usually $$ thousands over the asking price).
Native Idahoans going back generations can’t compete and are increasingly priced out of the market due to California money, not just Black rock.
Yes, we can use conservative voters to turn Idaho from RINO-red to conservative red, but not at the expense of losing the chance to be homeowners.
Again, nothing personal. Congrats on retirement.
We’re actually avoiding Idaho. The last thing we want to do is be around more Californians! We’re looking to move to Arkansas. When I tell people this, they look at me puzzled. The biggest reason? I need to be around people with my own values. Arkansas passed laws prohibiting mask mandates and requiring 5 days of in-person instruction for school kids. Today, literacy rates are higher in Arkansas than in California. I don’t want to grow old in CA where churches are closed on a whim, run the risk of going in to a nursing home and dying alone during the next plandemic, and I’d like my adult kids to be able to afford a home.
I plan to buy two homes – one for us to live out the rest of our days in, and another for rental income.
This is exactly why we couldn’t buy in Idaho and now Montana. We cannot compete financially with all that California money. But I guarantee you, those Californians will destroy your State. They did Washington.
Survived 70’s inflation, 80’s & 90’s prosperity, no thanks to government. Then the bubble burst in 2008, built back to 2020 and now holding on because of good decisions made 20 years ago.
This federal government is trying to break me and the middle class. Bring it in Biden administration …cold day in hell I’ll let you all bring me down.
And yet the stock market was up almost 500 points today. Makes no sense if a recession is coming. Tells you how manipulated the stock market is by government, the PPT and the Exchange Stabilization Fund, all to make Democrats look good.
I see a little humor in that. One of my staff members decided to bone our outfit and quit – to go sell condos that are in Colorado while working remotely in the Midwest…. he wasn’t my favorite. Good luck, Skippy.
What’s really strange is that here in Buncombe County NC, (Asheville area) sales are still booming. I have a neighbor who sells real estate and she is just as busy as ever. She also buys homes and flips them. They are building high density housing in the small town area I live and it is disgusting. New Yorkers moving here like crazy. No locals or people who have moved here 15 or more years ago can stand the place. In fact they recently did a random survey of county residents and only 32% of the respondents thing this is a good place to live.
The Dumbasspora abides.
This reminds me of ’07/’08…
Bye bye middle class home ownership. It was nice knowing you.
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Inflation Tracker
@TrackInflation
30-year fixed mortgage rates just hit 6.875%. Housing market is going to collapse….
….This is what happens to your mortgage payment when rates go from 2% to 7%. Absolute blood bath.
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Luke warm market in western Maine. Mostly old housing stock. Our place has an 1840’s footprint…lots of maintenance all the time.
Asset bubble is inevitable. In more ways than one. Our government and its agencies are one big lie.
Dude!