The Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has released the first estimate of the third quarter GDP growth for June, July and August 2018 (full pdf below).  The rate of economic growth in Q3 is estimated at 3.5%, exceeding most forecasts of slightly more than three percent.  The second quarter growth was 4.2%.

“Defying ‘conventional wisdom’ once again, 3.5 percent growth is the latest sign that the Trump economy continues to surge,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The President’s actions from deregulation to tax reform have supercharged the American economy, driving it to new heights.”

Overall the 3.5% growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.
Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.
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President Trump delivers remarks during a meeting between federal and state leaders. The conference is held to emphasize coordination between federal officials and their direct contacts at the state level.

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You might remember when CTH shared the following wage growth estimate:

[…] I’m not going to dismiss the possibility we could see double digit increases in year-over-year wage growth in multiple economic sectors in several regions of the U.S. –link–

Trucking Company President Nicholas Hobbs is now saying he projects a twenty percent increase in wages for truck drivers due to extreme demand.  That’s MAGAwinnamins!
Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao discusses efforts to address the truck driver shortage in America.

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Earlier today President Donald Trump welcomed a group of American workers into the Oval Office for a discussion of removing “red tape” and barriers to economic expansion.

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[Transcript] – Oval Office – 11:15 A.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, and welcome to the Oval Office. On Monday, I traveled to Florida and Georgia to meet with first responders and to visit with those affected by the devastation of Hurricane Michael. And yesterday, Mike Pence traveled also to the two states and he saw devastation like he’s never seen before. We’re in the same category. It was something. Something horrible.
Thousands of federal employees and military personnel have been deployed to assist in the massive recovery effort. One of the biggest we’ve ever done, and we’ve had some pretty big hurricanes. This was just about at the top.
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For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy was elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result the middle America blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years… Then came the era of Trump.

MAGAnomic policy is based around a very simple free-market process.  Increase domestic economic investment; expand new business and expansion in existing business; that expands the need for employment; drive those jobs, jobs, jobs and watch wages rise naturally as employers compete over an increasingly valuable labor pool.

Business Insider – The pharmacy-chain owner Walgreens Boots Alliance announced Thursday that it will make investments of about $150 million to boost mainly its in-store wages in fiscal 2019 in wake of President Donald Trump’s tax reforms.
[…] US retailers are scrambling to keep workers as they look for opportunities with higher pay and attractive benefits. The US unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low of 3.7% in September. According to the Bureau of Labour statistics, there were 757,000 retail-job openings across the United States in July, which is about 100,000 more than a year ago.

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U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue discusses the U.S. Mexico-Canada trade agreement and the positive impacts for U.S. farmers with increased open markets.
About two-thirds of the way through the interview the national FEMA alert message was tested.  Secretary Perdue cracks me up: “I get those presidential alerts in a different way”…

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Hold on to your MAGA caps there’s a winner wonderland ahead.  According to the latest ADP private payroll release today, private sector payrolls grew by a stunning 230,000 jobs in September. [They were anticipating 185k]  Massive jobs gains amid small, medium and large sized companies (report here).
This comes on the heels of the latest stats on paychecks which show *average* wage gains around 2.6% over last year.  Key word “average“.  There are multiple job sectors with wage increases of four to seven percent; well above the rate of consumer price inflation.

(Via CNBC) Job growth surged in September to its highest level in seven months as the economy put up another show of strength, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.
Private companies added 230,000 more positions for the month, the best level since the 241,000 jobs added in February and well ahead of the 168,000 jobs added in August.

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Earlier today President Trump delivered remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House announcing the USMCA (U.S-Mexico-Canada-Agreement) trade construct. The agreement covers $1.2 trillion in annual trade.
Joining President Trump is: U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow, Ambassador Kelly Craft, White House Advisor Jared Kushner, Trade Council Peter Navarro and Chris Liddell, with Deputy U.S. Trade Representative CJ Mahoney.
Make sure to hear the remarks from Ambassador Lighthizer @25:41

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FACT SHEETS from USTR Offices:

• Overview Fact Sheet – SEE HERE
• Agriculture Fact Sheet (Dairy Sector) SEE HERE
• Agriculture Fact Sheet (Overall) SEE HERE
• Manufacturing Fact Sheet SEE HERE

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses administration’s new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. Chairman Kudlow also discussed the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross gives an interview to Fox Business Maria Bartiromo and discusses the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).  Secretary Ross notes the gains in e-commerce and the dairy industry.   Also worth noting, the Steel and Aluminum tariffs remain in place.

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