Several key economic reports were released today highlighting a broad and strong U.S. economy with a very strong labor market.
♦ The first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) [DATA HERE] The first estimate is for growth at 2.0 percent. At first glance that is lower than we expected; however, a deeper look shows a large increase in imported goods that are deductions to the equation. The imported goods increased 25.8% more than the fourth quarter of 2025 [Table 1.1], that led to a net -1.30 percent deduction [Table 1.5].
The jump in imports is a result of massive capital expenditures on tools and equipment for the ongoing manufacturing boom. All the manufacturing machines and industrial tools that are not made in the USA become imported goods deducted from our economic valuation.
Exports were very strong rising 12.9 percent over the prior quarter. However, the 25.8% increase in imports created a net deduction from GDP (-1.30%). The last time we imported this much was just before the tariffs went into place and companies were rushing advanced orders, in the first quarter of 2025; this created a rebound effect in the second quarter.
I estimate the second quarter rebound will be even greater this year because we are exporting massive amounts of oil and LNG right now. Simultaneously, the capital expenditure imports will likely soften.
Oh boy, this indictment puts Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a really precarious position. If President Sheinbaum gives up the Governor of Sinaloa, Mexico, Ruben Rocha Moya to extradition the Sinaloa cartel will go ultra-violent against Sheinbaum and Moya will likely take down the entire government apparatus with him.
[Ancillary to this, it now makes sense why all the various Mexican federal officials were publicly criticizing the Trump administration and CIA in recent days. They knew this in advance.]
The DOJ (SDNY) has indicted Mexican Governor Ruben Rocha Moya along with nine current and former Mexican officials for participating “in a corrupt and violent drug trafficking conspiracy with the Cartel to import massive amounts of fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine from Mexico into the United States.
“The defendants have played a variety of essential roles for the Cartel: among other things, the defendants have allegedly shielded Cartel leaders from investigation, arrest, and prosecution; caused sensitive law enforcement and military information to be provided to members of the Cartel and allied drug traffickers to assist the Cartel’s criminal activities; directed members of state and local law enforcement agencies, such as the Sinaloa State Police, the Investigative Police for the Sinaloa State Attorney General’s Office, and the Culiacan Municipal Police, to protect drug loads stored in and transiting through Mexico to the United States; and allowed brutal drug-related violence to be committed by members of the Cartel without consequence. In exchange, the defendants have collectively received millions of dollars in drug money from the Cartel.” (link)
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlines Operation Economic Fury and the financial pressure campaign against the Iranian regime with Larry Kudlow.
KEY POINTS:
0:00 Introduction: Operation Economic Fury
0:39 Max Pressure: The Strategy to Freeze Iran’s Economy
2:04 Tracking the Money: Seizing IRGC Assets and Crypto
3:14 The Oil Blockade: Kharg Island at a Standstill
4:10 US Economic Resilience: Why Critics Are Wrong
6:04 IRS Modernization and Signature Tax Policies
7:33 Global Reshoring and the Manufacturing Boom
8:10 Geopolitical Chess: The UAE’s Break from OPEC
10:27 Federal Reserve Friction: Jay Powell vs. Kevin Warsh
I have less than zero sympathy or consideration of credibility for both individuals in the video below. Former Deputy Director Dan Bongino sits down for a dramatic, Q-feeding therapy session with Mr Tick-Tock himself, Sean Hannity.
In a widely discussed interview, the co-dependent enabler – masking himself as the victim of all things deep state, says on one hand there are honorable ‘rank and file’ within the FBI as an institution, and on the other hand he fears they will target him once President Trump leaves office. Go figure.
If you face reality and stop pretending, you then look at the facts with cold pragmatism: ♦The Robert Mueller investigation used 40 FBI agents, issued 2,800 subpoenas, executed 500 search warrants, obtained more than 230 secret orders for communication records, used 50 pen registers and interviewed 500 witnesses, all to prove there was a Trump-Russia conspiracy afoot. All of it was complete nonsense. That is the reality of the thing.
On day #1, FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino should have terminated (or suspended pending criminal investigation) any and all of those FBI agents and support personnel with extreme prejudice and then held a press conference to make the announcement.
Delivering mysterious statements about the scale and scope of the institutional problem, pouring fuel on innuendo, proclaiming vague possibilities, while hiding behind some opaque ‘trust me bro‘ reasoning for a currently mysterious inability to explain exactly what the heck he is talking about, is unadulterated dramatic ‘clickbait’ prose intended to feed an audience willing to be deceived. WATCH:
As you are aware, CTH is watching the small details closely on the U.S-Russia alignment against the backdrop of friction with the European Union, the U.K and NATO on issues surrounding Iran. In the past several days there have been several smaller moments lost amid media chatter of bigger news items, this is one such example today in the Oval Office.
During a press availability with the Artemis II astronauts, President Trump was asked for an update on the Ukraine conflict and seemingly stalled negotiations between U.S. intermediaries and Russia. At 04:12 of the video below, President Trump notes he spoke at length with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin today on issues related to the Ukraine conflict, and {{{thoughtful-pause}}} Iran. WATCH:
President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to ceasefire in Ukraine, and the U.S. military operation in Iran is not against his interests.
On April 12, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent quietly extended the sanction relief for Russia, permitting oil/gas sales loaded on vessels by 4/17/26 for transit and sale through 5/16/26. This permits Russia to push oil to Asia, specifically China, India and ASEAN countries where it is needed, while simultaneously the UAE and Saudi Arabia increase oil pumping avoiding the issues with the Strait of Hormuz.
This is happening while the U.S. is providing large oil and LNG supply increases to South/Central America, Europe and Japan to offset any global shortages.
Russia supplies China, India and Southeast Asia; the U.S. supplies Europe and Japan; the UAE supplies India and Australia; while Saudi Arabia supplies Africa and Europe. Global markets stable, Iran then faces operation financial fury led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. {Go Deep}
Today, in a very important 6-3 decision at the Supreme Court [Full pdf Ruling Here] the high court ruled in Louisiana -vs Callais that congressional districts drawn by considering race are an unconstitutional gerrymander. Race should not be a consideration in the drawing of district boundaries.
Chief Justice John Roberts had previously described Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District as a “snake” that stretches more than 200 miles (320 kilometers) to link parts of Shreveport, Alexandria, Lafayette and Baton Rouge. “That map is an unconstitutional gerrymander,” Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the majority opinion.
Justice Elena Kagan wrote the dissent for the three leftist, activist justices. “The consequences are likely to be far-reaching and grave. Today’s decision renders Section 2 all but a dead letter,” Kagan wrote, referencing Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
(Via Politico) – […] Alito said a revised interpretation of Section 2 was needed in part because of the Supreme Court’s 2019 ruling that the Constitution does not prohibit gerrymandering for partisan purposes. As a result, he suggested, plaintiffs in voting discrimination lawsuits are now often “dressing their political-gerrymandering claims in racial garb.”
“Failing to account for political considerations in redistricting … can allow plaintiffs to undo a State’s legitimate, non-racial decisions under the banner of Section 2,” Alito wrote, appearing to express concern that Democrats could use voting rights lawsuits for partisan purposes rather than to target racial discrimination.
The Federal Reserve is reported to be historically apolitical, meaning all considerations are absent of politics. However, no individual Federal Reserve Chairman has been more overtly political than Jerome Powell.
Today, after announcing yet again the Fed will not lower interest rates, Chairman Jerome Powell announced he will not leave the board of the federal reserve even after his term has expired and he is replaced by recently advanced Kevin Warsh. Powell said he plans to maintain a “low profile” as a governor, but it will be the first time since 1948 that a Federal Reserve Chairman has stayed on the board at the end of their chairmanship.
The Inspector General is currently reviewing the massive cost overrun for a new multi-billion-dollar Federal Reserve building that has been the heart of controversy since the initial $1 billion overrun was announced. “I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that,” Powell said.
Tonight, President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will host King Charles III and Queen Camilla of the United Kingdom at a White House state dinner. Livestream Links Below.
From the First Lady: “President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will welcome Their Majesties King Charles the III of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Her Majesty Queen Camilla for a State Dinner this evening, Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The First Lady led the preparations for the dinner, which will honor the Special Relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom as the American people mark 250 years of independence.”
MENU
First Course
Garden Vegetable Velouté
Hearts of PalmToasted Shallots
Micro Mint
The first course offers delicate garden herb velouté, silken and aromatic, complemented by a refreshing hearts of palm salad. Finished with crisp toasted shallots and a whisper of micro mint for brightness and contrast.
President Trump and the First Lady Participate in a Family Photo with the King and Queen of the United Kingdom. The short formal moment precedes the State Dinner this evening. WATCH: