The Republican battle for Speaker of the House of Representatives continues with multiple factions competing for influence.  The sausage making inside the GOPe conference is doing what that sausage makers in the GOPe conference always do.  There’s a lot of opposition to Kevin McCarthy and the vast majority of it is well deserved.

Yes, the swamp is doing swampy things, and yes, it’s a hot mess.  But that’s also what happens in a two-party congress within a constitutional republic where members from very different states end up arguing for position based on an ideology that varies wildly.   Notice that if you get rid of the two-party system, all of this stuff seemingly evaporates.  Funny how the people who construct the two-party system don’t want us to notice that.

In this video, Marjorie Taylor Greene, a representative who supports the MAGA agenda and Kevin McCarthy for speaker, calls out some of the well-known voices in the GOPe apparatus who are doing swampy things.   WATCH:

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I would suggest not getting emotionally invested in any of this internecine arguing.   If you have let your congressional representative know your expectation, the only thing we can do is watch it play out.

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It’s almost painful to go to the grocery store today, not just because the prices for everything are so high, but also because seeing the stress amid the working-class shopping is palpable.  Unfortunately, while we may have a momentary plateau on current pricing, there’s a strong possibility another wave of higher prices is yet to come.

At the core of the issue are energy prices which continue to rise.   The immediate cycle of energy price hikes, a direct consequence of political policy, has lessened somewhat and we are now in that slow tick upward as the pressure on oil, gas, heating and electricity prices continues.

Michael Burry, famous for his predictions in/around the U.S. housing market, is noticing the same thing as CTH.  “Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle,” he said. “We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It’s not hard.”

Peak demand side inflation is long in the rearview mirror, but the peak of supply side inflation is questionable at best – I would say it’s a plateau, not a peak.

The price of goods, including industrialized and processed raw materials from China are going to increase again – and simultaneously become less consistent in availability.  This is going to make prices extremely volatile in 2023.

Essentially, everything around price is tenuous as the western economies absorb the full impact of this Build Back Better energy policy, and into this foray comes China with production and processing challenges as a result of COVID bubbles being removed.   We are seeing this problem right now in the pharmaceutical industry and with ordinary medicines becoming scarcer on store shelves.

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The New Year brings a look of forward-looking economic perspectives from major financial institutions.  Unfortunately, if the perspective of Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen is reflective of the larger institutional analysis, the financial pretending is anticipated to continue.

[Side Note: Notice how they will all start talking about ‘deglobalization’ in 2023. There’s a reason for that that I will touch on in the IMF interview to follow]

Appearing on Face the Nation Gapen accurately indicates the U.S. housing market is already in a steep economic recession, housing prices falling rapidly with a considerable amount of distance to go (-30% range), and the overall housing market will likely be in this situation for around two years.  On a macro level the Bank of America indicators line up with the general housing trajectory.  From a lending standpoint, Gapen would have specific insight.

Beyond the housing sector, Mr. Gapen starts to get sketchy.  He anticipates inflation taking 24 to 36 months to lower to the norm 2% range.  That is generally in line with CTH expectations; however, nowhere in the analysis does Gapen even mention energy costs and the overall impact to the economy from energy policy.  You will note this absence will be present in almost all financial punditries.  Mentioning “energy policy’ as a cause of economic pain is a third rail amid his peer group; it is simply not permitted.

Astute readers will note the great financial and economic pretending that surrounds the Build Back Better and Green New Deal climate change agenda will not be discussed by anyone, ever. The massive price impacts, the supply side inflation pressures, are baked into the western global economic outlooks.  It is strictly verboten to talk about climate change policy being stopped, modified, reversed or even, well, gasp, removed.  WATCH:

[TRANSCRIPT] – […] BANK OF AMERICA CHIEF ECONOMIST MICHAEL GAPEN: Happy New Year as well. Thank you for having me on.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You know, a majority of voters polled by The Wall Street Journal say that the economy is going to look and feel worse in 2023. What is your forecast?

GAPEN: So I think that’s probably true. I think we’re in a situation where the risk of recession is high, may not be a deep and prolonged one. But we’re in a situation where the economy has recovered very rapidly from- from COVID, and it’s come with a lot of inflation. And the Federal Reserve is trying to slow down the economy, to bring inflation down. And in the past, more often than not, that’s coincided with some sort of recession in the US economy and the U.S. labor market. It’s not baked in. It’s not for certain. We may be able to avoid it, but I would agree that the outlook by most people who sit in the position that I do think 2023 could be a difficult year for the U.S..

MARGARET BRENNAN: So we may be able to avoid recession?

GAPEN: Yes.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Or it could be mild?

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President Donald Trump delivered remarks at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida estate as he and Melania attended a New Year gala. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

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If 2022 was not the apex year for the era of great pretending, then we remain sitting in a handbasket – destination, full speed ahead.

When asked for the topic of a ‘big picture‘ podcast this 2022-year ending, the obvious answer from me was We Need to Quit Pretending.

For the past two years I can only encapsulate the entire social, political and socioeconomic dynamic that surrounds us by saying we are living in an era of great pretending.  Why?  Because nothing else adequately explains it.

A recession is no longer two negative quarters of economic growth.  Elections are no longer defined by votes cast, but by ballots counted.  Meanwhile, women are claimed to have penises and people will argue -strenuously and with commitment- that men can give birth to babies.

Simultaneously, vaccines are no longer about medicines to avoid viruses, and Americans have some moral obligation to fund the administrative salaries, pensions and expense accounts for a nation of European politicians, in a country that few taxpayers could find on a map.

We must pretend the occupant of the oval office is not a dementia patient, at the same time we must pretend the Dept of Homeland Security and FBI is not telling online speech platforms that identifying the dementia patient, as a dementia patient, means you are a domestic violent extremist.  The absurdity of the pretenses are off-the-charts.

However, on the upside, we now see even blissfully ignorant people starting to realize something is wrong when their electricity and heating bills quadruple, while the same system of governmental caretakers are telling us to embrace a new earth friendly normal of $12 dollar eggs.  We been knew, but more are now knowing – thank God.

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This is interesting.  The use of public genetic genealogy databases by law enforcement officials has been discussed for several years now.

According to information within a CNN article about the capture of Idaho murder suspect Bryan Kohberger, it appears this might be the most recent case solved -at least in part- through the use of those public DNA databases.

Previously the Golden State Killer was identified through the use of DNA using a public genealogy database.  According to the CNN article it appears a similar process was used in the identification of Kohberger:

(Via CNN) – […] Investigators homed in on Kohberger as the suspect through DNA evidence and by confirming his ownership of a white Hyundai Elantra seen near the crime scene, according to two law enforcement sources briefed on the investigation.

[…] An FBI surveillance team tracked him for four days before his arrest while law enforcement worked with prosecutors to develop enough probable cause to obtain a warrant, the two law enforcement sources said.

Genetic genealogy techniques were used to connect Kohberger to unidentified DNA evidence, another source with knowledge of the case tells CNN. The DNA was run through a public database to find potential family member matches, and subsequent investigative work by law enforcement led to him as the suspect, the source said. (read more)

Many who understand the scope of data and privacy exploitation have often wondered and warned if it was smart for people to be voluntarily giving their DNA to various genealogical tracing companies.  When Blackstone purchased Ancestry.Com the world’s largest public DNA database, there were several questions raised again about the possible misuse and privacy issues.   At the time, here’s how Ancestry responded:

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Neil Oliver looks at the current media headlines as the New Year approaches, noticing it’s Groundhog Day all over again.  The video is available on the GB News Website Here and the transcript is below:

[Video Here]

[Transcript] –  New Year incoming – and still we are being beaten around the head with the same old stories.

In a few hours, we welcome 2023, but as far as our leaders and their lackeys are concerned it might as well be Groundhog Day.

I look at the headlines on this last day of 2022 and what do I see? Covid, Ukraine and Climate Change. Folk nuttier than anything found in a selection box are talking about bringing back face masks. God help us. Let’s remind everyone for the umpteenth time that Covid is now no more dangerous to most than the common cold. But still, the talk is of the pandemic, same old, same old.

I speak to people every day and hear real stories about real struggles. At first, when asked, “How’re things?” most smile and say they’re fine. Spend a few minutes in conversation though and the stories come.

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The ideology of these elitist minded control officers is really remarkable.  The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has given several statements to media saying policy measures must be put into place in order to stop wage growth from fueling inflation.

Think about this in the most practical of terms.  Western politicians have created massive inflation through their collective ‘Build Back Better’ energy policy.  The central banks have raised interest rates, an effort to shrink the economy by lowering energy demand, to offset the skyrocketing costs of the energy problem the politicians created.

With workers demanding pay raises to help afford the skyrocketing costs of energy, the central EU bank is now worried that wage increases will fuel inflation.

There’s a truckload of pretending needed to avoid seeing the insufferable dynamic of reality.

Political policy drives up energy costs. Central banks try to drive down energy demand.  Workers unable to afford the energy prices created by politicians, are then blamed for the inflation the political policy creates.

Sooner or later ordinary people are going to figure out this abusive cycle.

(Via Reuters) – Euro zone wages are growing quicker than earlier thought and the European Central Bank must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told a Croatian newspaper.

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The criminal complaint against California serial killer Wesley Brownlee (pictured left) has been amended to include four more victims.

A total of seven murders are attributed to Brownlee and more will possibly be added.  Details via NPR.

STOCKTON, Calif. — A man suspected in Northern California serial killings has been charged in four additional slayings this week, bringing the total to seven deaths since April 2021, authorities said.

The shootings terrorized the Central Valley city of Stockton earlier this year as police searched for a man clad in black who appeared to be “on a mission” as he hunted victims for ambush-style shootings. He was also tied violence in Alameda County.

[…] Brownlee was initially only charged in the deaths of three victims in Stockton: Jonathan Rodriguez Hernandez, 21, who died Aug. 30; Juan Cruz, 52, who died Sept. 21; and Lawrence Lopez Sr., 54, who died Sept. 27.

The amended complaint, filed Tuesday, additionally charges Brownlee with the killings of Paul Yaw, 35, who died July 8, and Salvador Debudey Jr., 43, who died Aug. 11, in Stockton, as well as the Alameda County fatal shootings of Juan Vasquez Serrano, 39, on April 10, 2021, and Mervin Harmon on April 16, 2021.

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Barbara Walters died today, aged 93.  [Story Here]

Ms. Walters is credited with blazing the trail for women in media.   Walters legacy includes many facets, including the modern era launch of the most transparently biased interview technique in opinion journalism.  Barbara Walters never let the details of a good story get in the way of her opinion of it.

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