I am a reasonably intelligent person, generally of mild and polite disposition; perhaps blessed by the grace of a loving God and brutally practical outlook therein, and with the acuity to look at things from a slightly less complicated perspective.

I have watched, viewed, read and consumed the Potemkin Village discussion across a broad spectrum of platforms for several weeks.  I have watched the news, read the headlines, researched the general promotions from a wide variety of sources and personalities.  Heck, yesterday, I even forced myself to watch a painful podcast [LINK], which included the insufferable pontifications of Buck Sexton and Clay Travis as they discussed the Trump -vs- DeSantis popular genre of domestic 2024 politics.

The world is full of small voices shouting the exact same shiny things in unison.  However, one thing is abundantly clear… everyone in conservative and republican politics is consumed by the 2024 puppet show and focused, to the exclusion of all other intelligent review, on the Potemkin Village of federal political constructs.

Let me be clear….  Nothing, not one single thing….  about candidates, debates, endorsements, media support, branding, imaging, leadership, effectiveness, policy, polling, communications, digital outreach, social media platforms, rallies or love of country matters in the 2024 election.  None of it matters.  The outcome of the 2024 presidential contest will be determined by ONLY ONE THING….

….ENVELOPES!

That’s it.

That’s the sum total of what matters.

Envelopes containing ballots.

Red envelopes -vs- Blue envelopes, and who can gather the most envelopes.   That’s it folks.  That’s the only thing that matters.

When Team Obama watch their opposition deciding on who is the best person to reach the “independent”, “middle”, or “swing voters”… as if voters really mattered, the David Axelrod’s, Marc Elias’s, David Plouffe and Barack Obama’s of the world laugh.  I mean straight up hysterically belly laugh.

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Always keep in mind that retails sales from the Dept of Commerce [DATA HERE pdf] are always calculated in dollars.  Inflation can artificially skewer retail sales if prices increase, and yet consumer purchases decline at a rate lower than the increase in price.  Fewer units sold at higher prices can give the false impression of increased sales.

During an inflationary environment, when prices increase yet retail sales drop, there are substantially fewer units being purchased.  Overall purchases at stores, restaurants and online declined a seasonally adjusted 1% in March from the prior month.

During the time measured gasoline was less expensive, so that led the drop in fuel sales; however, drops in dept stores (-2.5%), General Merchandise (-3.0%), electronics (-2.1%), and building supplies (-2.1%), shows another broad-based pullback of Main Street consumer spending. (pdf here)

These outcomes are in general alignment with what many people have shared via regional ground reports.  Grocery store sales are flat despite major increases in grocery store prices (+10 to +20%).  People are buying fewer grocery store units and making their food budget stretch as far as possible.

Durable goods are not considered essential, and sales of cars, electronics and department store products are much lower.

I am actually a little (pleasantly) surprised to see restaurant sales holding (+0.1%), despite the massive increase in fresh food costs.   I thought people would eat out less, but the total decline in restaurant foot traffic seems to be in the single digits.  I guess people can afford it more than I anticipated.

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There are times when CTH and the perspective of Glenn Greenwald do not align. This is not one of those times. {Direct Rumble Link Here}

In this segment with Tucker Carlson, Glenn Greenwald nails the agenda, motives and outcomes of the U.S. media as they relate to the recent classified intelligence leaks. This is a solid three-minute encapsulation of the problem. WATCH:

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During his opening monologue tonight, Tucker Carlson outlined the latest developments on the U.S. classified information leaks and the media effort to avoid talking about the government lies within them.

It really is quite a remarkable development to witness in real time.  Corporate media, a completely collapsed fourth-estate, playing the distracting role on behalf of the intelligence apparatus they are supposed to keep in check.  WATCH:

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In the latest round of statistics from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) the March inflation data has been released [DATA HERE]. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February.  This puts the 12-month CPI outlook at 5% inflation. [See Modified Table A on Left]

A 4.6% decline in March gasoline prices was offset by higher rental and housing costs.  That was the primary driver of the lowered inflationary data as gasoline is weighted heavier in the impact.

However, that said, gasoline prices are already rising again after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers early this month announced further oil output cuts.  This puts the April CPI data (starting to be assembled this week) on track to increase over March.

Overall, in the big picture the data shows the plateau of sorts as we described for this spring.  This plateau will be followed by another bump as a result of current input costs and prior energy costs traveling through the supply chain.

Energy services, electricity and natural gas, are stable but higher than last year.  The crop cycles carry those increased costs from field to fork.  Consumers cannot avoid those food prices increasing.  The more processing involved in the food sector, the higher the price increase.

Housing increases are another unavoidable cost and generally cycle with a lag within them.  As leases expire, the new lease rates increase accordingly.  The same is true for insurance rates.  Both unavoidable sectors have a rolling lag that hits the consumer upon renewal.

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In the BIG PICTURE a local New York City District Attorney has created a criminal case, structured on a federal crime, that the federal government has stated was not a crime.  This is the Rubicon that has been crossed by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. In essence this is extreme Lawfare in action.

In response to the jurisdictional issue; in addition to the substantive political construct of the case; the largest mechanism within congress, the House Judiciary Committee has subpoenaed officials from the District Attorney’s office to answer questions about the construct of the case.  A return-fire lawfare response.

In reaction to the federal response and inquiry, DA Alvin Bragg filed a lawsuit against the House Judiciary Committee [Filing Review HERE].  District Attorney Bragg also asked for intervention against the subpoena, an injunction against the authority of the House oversight, that was immediately DENIED by the court.  Alvin Bragg really doesn’t want the House to investigate his case.

Appearing on Fox News to outline the House response, Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan explains the issues at hand {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

Jim Jordan is correct in the unprecedented action from Bragg, that preceded the unprecedented action from congress. This is a battle of Lawfare operations with significant long-term consequences for the entire justice system.  The political motives for the New York, Atlanta (GA) and Washington DC cases are transparent.

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Yesterday White House Spokesman for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, asked media not to report on the leaked classified intelligence that has been showing up on various social media platforms.  The classified intel was designated NOFORN, meaning the containment silo forbids sharing with any non-U.S. citizen; ergo the leaks came from inside our own Intelligence Community silos.

BBC is now reporting on part of the NOFORN leak as it pertains to Ukraine.  According to the classified intelligence, active U.K and U.S. military personnel are conducting the war effort inside Ukraine.  Congress has not authorized any active U.S. military involvement.  The White House has previously denied any active U.S. military involvement.

That said, we always suspected the U.S. military was operating inside Ukraine and the Pentagon and White House were just lying about it.  BBC is confirming that exact scenario with U.S. Special Forces operators inside Ukraine.

(VIA BBC) – The UK is among a number of countries with military special forces operating inside Ukraine, according to one of dozens of documents leaked online.

It confirms what has been the subject of quiet speculation for over a year.

The leaked files, some marked “top secret”, paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine, including sensitive details of Ukraine’s preparations for a spring counter-offensive.  The US government says it is investigating the source of the leak.

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

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A few days after the terror attack of 9-11-01, someone in media asked George W. Bush what Americans can do to help.  Dubya’s response drew instant criticism, because he asked people to go shopping… but in the big picture, President Bush knew what could happen if the economic freeze continued.

When it comes to politics and economic outlooks, trust your instincts.  The economics of the ‘thing’ is always the reason the ‘thing’ exists or does not exist.

When you are looking at economic news, always remind yourself… the people producing the news have a vested interest in maintaining a very specific outlook.  The motive behind what Dubya said in September of 2001, pertains every bit as much today.  Economic outcomes can topple entire governments.

Remember, this current ‘supply-side energy policy driven inflation‘, a purposeful effort to shrink the economy and yet tenuously maintain control, has never happened before.  The people behind the Build Back Better agenda are, in reality, experimenting with a theory. DATA…

(ISM) – The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI contracted for the fifth straight month in March registering 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020. Any reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.  The employment index declined by 2.2 percent to a level of 46.9.

Most of the impediments to manufacturing growth — such as shortages and lockdowns — have subsided, said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, with the exception of pricing. ISM’s pricing index fell below 50 in March but at 49.2 remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

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The Democrat National Committee (DNC) has selected Chicago, Illinois, as the location for the 2024 convention. Joe Biden called Governor JB Pritzker earlier this morning and informed him of the selection.

It’s an interesting development as most of the betting money would have predicted the Democrat convention toward Atlanta, Georgia.  However, if you factor in the unspoken influence and importance of Chicago Jesus, et al,… well, then things take a more fulsome background.

According to the Chicago Sun Times the United Center will be the primary venue for nomination events and daytime business will be conducted at the McCormick Place Convention Center.  The DNC convention is scheduled for August 19-22, 2024.

CHICAGO – The Democratic National Committee selected Chicago to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention, the Sun-Times has learned, with the city beating bids from Atlanta and New York.

The convention will take place Aug. 19-22 next year. It is expected to draw between 5,000 and 7,000 delegates and alternates and attract up to 50,000 visitors to Chicago.

Evening events will be at the United Center — the main site of the 1996 Democratic convention in Chicago — with daytime business to be conducted at the McCormick Place Convention Center, the location of the 2012 NATO Summit.  Delegates will be housed in about 30 hotels in Chicago.

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Effective today, the U.S. National COVID-19 Emergency is officially over!   [Details on House Resolution 7 Here]

Led by Republicans in the House and supported by a veto-proof majority in the overall legislative branch, Joe Biden was forced today to officially end the national COVID-19 emergency.  [White House Link]

It passed the House by a vote of 229 – 197, February 1, 2023. It passed the Senate by a vote of 68 – 23, March 29, 2023. And was presented to the White House on April 5th for signature. Biden had no options.  Federal emergency power is stripped, this will help states counter mail-in ballots.

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