U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has made it official. Delivering an official statement today following a discussion between the United States, Mexico and Canada, USTR Jamieson Greer informed the group the USA will not be renewing the USMCA trilateral trade agreement. [SOURCE]
[SOURCE]
Unfortunately, yet predictably given how much false information has been pushed on this issue, the Canadian team will now believe they have a period of ten consecutive years of negotiation before the trade deal is over. This is structurally and completely false. The Canadian media will likely continue selling this false hope.
In reality, with the non-renewal announcement now made, President Trump and USTR Greer can now complete the bilateral trade discussions with Mexico (noted in the announcement) and then move to stage two.
Stage two will be the United States announcing a complete withdrawal from the USMCA, which triggers a six-month countdown clock. The formal notification of withdrawal will likely happen once the U.S. and Mexico complete the bilateral free trade agreement.
I understand that I am somewhat of a nerd on this USMCA construct and the Trump approach toward it. Therefore, it is unfair of me to judge perspectives of pundits. I have studied the granular details for several years, read dozens of transcripts from the USTR office, watched every interview and statement from President Trump and USTR Greer; yet I am still gob-smacked at the inability of the Canadian media to recognize what is evident and explain what is about to take place.
There is a possibility in this non-renewal phase the Canadian people might just start to question why they are being misled by their government and the media; however, I am not optimistic they will realize it yet.
As noted by this article from Barrons, the denial is off the charts. [SEE HERE]
President Trump has said repeatedly he does not see value in retaining the USMCA (CUSMA) and the only purpose it served was to eliminate NAFTA. The USMCA had one job, eliminate NAFTA.
Both President Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer have been very clear; Trump in direct words, Greer in direct action.
President Trump has said the USMCA was not a trade agreement he wanted to retain, while USTR Greer has been building a bilateral free trade agreement with Mexico for 18 months. No effort has been extended toward Canada, because the last stage, stage #3, is where a U.S-Canada bilateral trade agreement will be introduced.
Stage #1 – Announce the non-renewal of the USMCA.
Stage #2 – Complete the bilateral trade agreement with Mexico.
Announce the formal withdrawal from the USMCA, trigger the 6-month countdown.
Stage #3 – Begin negotiating with Canada while the 6-month doomsday clock is ticking. This is optimal leverage.
No part of this process should be a surprise. The Canadian government is willfully obtuse, but they are not stupid. They are hearing, reading and seeing the same things as me. They know what is coming. The Canadian government, with the assistance of the Canadian media, are willfully lying to their domestic audience.
The Canadian electorate are angry at the USA. The Canadian electorate should be angry at their media and government.
For some bizarre reason, and I mean this with great seriousness and sadness, the Canadian people do not comprehend the nature of their economic relationship with the United States.
Canada doesn’t sell 75% of their products to the United States. The United States buys 75% of Canadian products.
The USA is the customer in the relationship. Canada is the seller. The customer holds the leverage in this relationship, not the seller.
The customer is under no obligation to purchase goods from a hostile seller: who ridicules them, belittles them, shouts at them, makes each visit uncomfortable for them, tells them how stupid they are, and is generally abusive to them.
For some unknown reason, Canadians just cannot see the nature of this relationship. There is a very weird abusive psychology behind it, created by the Canadian government. It is the strangest thing I have ever witnessed.
{{Steps off Soapbox}}
Bottom line, you all know what is going to come next. {GO DEEP} I love, genuinely love and respect our Canadian Treepers, but Trump is going to unload all of that above sentiment over the next several months.
I doubt seriously anyone of relative importance in Canadian politics has the awareness or capability to grab the people that matter by the scruff of the neck and tell them to ‘knock it off‘ and find some humility. It’s no longer a Canadian trait.
…During this period, President Trump carries massive leverage against Canada. He will likely probe their trade position and willingness to comply with reciprocity after the non-renewal announcement. The outcome of those probes will determine the timeline of his exit announcement.
During this non-renewal phase, we may even see President Trump tease the exit, then retract, then tease the exit again. Each time Trump tests the Canadian government with statements, the Canadian economy will pulsate and weaken; it will drive the Canadian government to either extreme anger, or defeated compliance.
Timing the completion of the U.S-Mexico deal within the probes of Canada will be super interesting. At some point as the U.S. closes in on the deal with Mexico, Canada is going to realize they are naked without any agreement.
The worst-case scenario for Canada is President Trump announcing the USMCA exit on the same day he announces a completed bilateral deal with Mexico. (more)
Last point. Expect the U.K and EU to financially backstop Canada and purchase sovereign debt in an effort to support them financially. It will not be enough, but they will try to offset Trump’s leverage. Keep watching.
Canadians actually believe they have some inherent right to place tariffs on the U.S. and to outright ban categories of products to protect their domestic producers but the USA has no right to put tariffs on them. Why? Because that’s the way it’s been for 100 years. Instead of being thankful the USA subsidized them they are angry that Trump may take that away and insist on reciprocity and an even playing field.
The world financial structure since 1946 has been “give thanks to the USA for their sacrifices by ripping them off blind as they throw increasing amounts of time and treasure at you so that you can sneer harder.”
It was going to end eventually; this *is* the soft landing.
The problem with preferential treatment is that fair treatment seems unfair. Because it has been that way for 100 years does not mean it is fair.
There is a Thomas Sowell quote in there somewhere. 😁
Just like NATO.
I know, “another reason to hate the MSM” is like “oh look, it’s warm in summer” but: “Trump cools on his own trade pact” is how Yahoo finance decided to cast this decision not to let the Canadian province of the PRC rip us off further.
I wrote last evening that Carney looked like he had a stroke ( I read here early and late and thanks for all replies).
After reading this post methinks Carney knew what was coming re the USMCA, and most likely is having some kind of breakdown, knowing that with all of his “smarts,” he will go down in history as another failed leader of the “great white North” just like Trudeau (curious where that thing is hiding these daze).
From many visits to Canada over many years, it is in many ways, so much a multi-cultural country just as the USA is. I love Canada,
Do Canadian’s have elections? I don’t really know. But if they do, I guess they are jerry-rigged just as in the USA.
Praying for Canada that they find a candidate that all can support, and Make their next choice so popular it is TOO BIG to RIG.
Peace All.
Multicultural is not good.
I guess mulicucalutal is in the eye of the beholder. I’ve been to Montreal, Vancouver, and Toronto, and other places in the wild in Canada.
Was wearing a pair of Berkinstock shoes in Montreal when I saw a man wearing a pink Mohair suit, definitely French clothing for sure.
Also went to Toronto to see the Phantom of the Opera, and we walked around the city while it was snowing and cold. Twas a sight to behold how restaruarants were cooking food for all to behold in their shop windows. Have never found any Peking Duck prepared the same way.
Years later traveled to Vancouver, which was kind of strange experience with so many with different eye shapes all gathered on an overlook.
As far as I could ken back then, Canada had not become a breeding ground as yet for foreign rape gangs and those of a similar ilk.
Hope Canada still remains the same. Still love the song “Take Off to the Great White North.”
There is just not enough noise coming out of Canada. It makes me think the Canadians voted for this Communism.
the populace didn’t flock to the truckers. the banks did. they were going to shut down.100 years of ‘fair trade’ in canada is like the 70 years of soviet rule in russia. when it collapsed allthe russians were like….wheres my check?
as an aside, about the mental condition of some leaders, clinton and ahud barack offered arafat everything he wanted ,at camp david. he said no. ahud barack cracked ,it was said.
Back in the 90’s during the first NAFTA, Canada got the far better of a massively lopsided deal (i.e. their auto import
tariff against the US 25%, the US import tariff from Canada, 2.5% (yes, 10 to 1). Trump famously asked who made
THESE deals? Canada just assumed that Americans were congenitally stupid and gullible as a result, but that was B.T.,
Before Trump! Now they are shocked to discover that their gravy train is leaving the station, and they are in severe
denial. Think if they posture and lie, they’ll eventually get to keep their undeserved windfalls. NOT UNDER TRUMP!
Buh bye!
Sundance: if Canada remains obtuse, does this mean the EU has the same “we got 10 years” understanding as the Canadians? Moreover, what about China? With all the influence it has in Canada, surely the Chinese know there is no 10 years and could therefore be the ones to grab the leaders of Canada by the collar and tell them to wise up–fast? I expect the EU to pretend about all this and do the wrong thing, but not China.
Or they could simply wait until the house of Canada becomes a dump and swoop in and buy at a deal.. use the China house as collateral… Then what happens? 🤷
we wouldn’t let china have cuba.
The “wife” has been sending signals that she is not happy with the marriage, I do not hear her. She talks about a new friend she has that fills in the space that I do not fulfil, I do not hear her. She has weekends away with her new friend, I “think” this is all normal, unwilling to face the prospect that she may not be happy with the way things are between us.
One day, she tells me she is leaving, I, in bewilderment ask her why?
She has the fortitude to say to me, “are you stupid, ignorant, or just living in denial”, at which point the truth hits home, she’s leaving.
It is not surprising. Canada is run by Liberals more accurately Communists. Most of them do not understand economics and to top it off Carney is a DEI banker. Carney never managed anything of consequence. He inflicted DEI on corporations with no downside in the early days. It takes awhile to break down capitalism. The Press is captured so there is no dissent.
All this leads to Canada forgetting or never knowing Stew Leonard’s 2 Rules:
China wanted to be the manufacturer of the world but then allowed the Wolf Warriors to forget Stew’s rules. It is a mess in CCP land now and Canada will end up there also.
Nope. The customer is always right so long as you’re making money.
Question..once the US and Mexico finalize a bilateral agreement, does that agreement become immediately operative or do we then have to terminate the USMCA and wait 6 months before the the new US/Mexico agreement starts?
A banker vs a businessman. The banker should understand that without the funding from the businessman, the banker has no leverage.
Bankers are businessmen. When they do things that are antibusiness, you can bet the boot of the government is on their necks.
Unfortunately, there is no cure for stupidity. And, sometimes, it’s fatal.
Kelly Ann Shaw, an international trade lawyer and partner at Akin Gump who worked in the first Trump administration, expects the U.S. to eventually maintain USMCA🤣 but have extra bilateral protocols on top with each trading partner.
“Carlos Capistran, BofA’s Latam and Canada economist, said this default situation of annual reviews and a pact that expires in 2036 ➜isn’t good for investment confidence and is likely to keep a lid on economic growth…..(in Canada).”
➜This is key, even if there were going to be annual reviews. No business or industry is going to invest in Canada,
not even Canadian companies, without a 5 or 10 year or more guarantee that they’ll be able to sell into the US. Annual reviews are just as bad for investment as CUSMA elimination, perhaps worse.
Six months time will allow the globalist predators to rig the U.S elections and put the commies in full control of our gov’t, completely neutering any plans the Trump administration may have
God bless the people of Canada. Their leaders have failed them. Sadly, the people let it happen. My 15th generation grandfather,
he is rolling over in his grave. My families name is listed in a monument in a park in Three River Quebec, the founder’s monument. Pierre and Mathurin came from France to the west in 1642 to establish a colony, New France, which became Canada.
The Canada he dreamed of is slowly fading away.
Yeah, we’re all being lied to by our governments. Vance sounding off in Europe while they pass bills here that will eventually destroy free speech online.
They’re desperately building out a massive surveillance state with data centers, various camera systems, and AI.
Our products and especially our vehicles are being coded to prohibit our right to repair them. The remote kill switch will be repurposed into another control method. And today our vehicles are spying on us tremendously.
Subscription models are here and ramping up. Soon, we’ll be charged for each time we start our car and for how long we run it. We’ll be charged for every bit that we drive on the roadways.
They will continue to whittle down the efficient operation of appliances including A/C until they’re useless, because global warming.
Our food supply is being systematically sabatoged, with the end result eliminating proteins. These boxes of ticks being found around remote areas are working well in support of that.
And we, the US are manufacturing the plagues that are detailed in the End Times in the Scriptures.
Only Jesus’second coming is going to save us. And he is only going to save the true believers. Please, be one of them!