U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has made it official. Delivering an official statement today following a discussion between the United States, Mexico and Canada, USTR Jamieson Greer informed the group the USA will not be renewing the USMCA trilateral trade agreement. [SOURCE]
[SOURCE]
Unfortunately, yet predictably given how much false information has been pushed on this issue, the Canadian team will now believe they have a period of ten consecutive years of negotiation before the trade deal is over. This is structurally and completely false. The Canadian media will likely continue selling this false hope.
In reality, with the non-renewal announcement now made, President Trump and USTR Greer can now complete the bilateral trade discussions with Mexico (noted in the announcement) and then move to stage two.
Stage two will be the United States announcing a complete withdrawal from the USMCA, which triggers a six-month countdown clock. The formal notification of withdrawal will likely happen once the U.S. and Mexico complete the bilateral free trade agreement.
I understand that I am somewhat of a nerd on this USMCA construct and the Trump approach toward it. Therefore, it is unfair of me to judge perspectives of pundits. I have studied the granular details for several years, read dozens of transcripts from the USTR office, watched every interview and statement from President Trump and USTR Greer; yet I am still gob-smacked at the inability of the Canadian media to recognize what is evident and explain what is about to take place.
There is a possibility in this non-renewal phase the Canadian people might just start to question why they are being misled by their government and the media; however, I am not optimistic they will realize it yet.
As noted by this article from Barrons, the denial is off the charts. [SEE HERE]
President Trump has said repeatedly he does not see value in retaining the USMCA (CUSMA) and the only purpose it served was to eliminate NAFTA. The USMCA had one job, eliminate NAFTA.
Both President Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer have been very clear; Trump in direct words, Greer in direct action.
President Trump has said the USMCA was not a trade agreement he wanted to retain, while USTR Greer has been building a bilateral free trade agreement with Mexico for 18 months. No effort has been extended toward Canada, because the last stage, stage #3, is where a U.S-Canada bilateral trade agreement will be introduced.
Stage #1 – Announce the non-renewal of the USMCA.
Stage #2 – Complete the bilateral trade agreement with Mexico.
Announce the formal withdrawal from the USMCA, trigger the 6-month countdown.
Stage #3 – Begin negotiating with Canada while the 6-month doomsday clock is ticking. This is optimal leverage.
No part of this process should be a surprise. The Canadian government is willfully obtuse, but they are not stupid. They are hearing, reading and seeing the same things as me. They know what is coming. The Canadian government, with the assistance of the Canadian media, are willfully lying to their domestic audience.
The Canadian electorate are angry at the USA. The Canadian electorate should be angry at their media and government.
For some bizarre reason, and I mean this with great seriousness and sadness, the Canadian people do not comprehend the nature of their economic relationship with the United States.
Canada doesn’t sell 75% of their products to the United States. The United States buys 75% of Canadian products.
The USA is the customer in the relationship. Canada is the seller. The customer holds the leverage in this relationship, not the seller.
The customer is under no obligation to purchase goods from a hostile seller: who ridicules them, belittles them, shouts at them, makes each visit uncomfortable for them, tells them how stupid they are, and is generally abusive to them.
For some unknown reason, Canadians just cannot see the nature of this relationship. There is a very weird abusive psychology behind it, created by the Canadian government. It is the strangest thing I have ever witnessed.
{{Steps off Soapbox}}
Bottom line, you all know what is going to come next. {GO DEEP} I love, genuinely love and respect our Canadian Treepers, but Trump is going to unload all of that above sentiment over the next several months.
I doubt seriously anyone of relative importance in Canadian politics has the awareness or capability to grab the people that matter by the scruff of the neck and tell them to ‘knock it off‘ and find some humility. It’s no longer a Canadian trait.
…During this period, President Trump carries massive leverage against Canada. He will likely probe their trade position and willingness to comply with reciprocity after the non-renewal announcement. The outcome of those probes will determine the timeline of his exit announcement.
During this non-renewal phase, we may even see President Trump tease the exit, then retract, then tease the exit again. Each time Trump tests the Canadian government with statements, the Canadian economy will pulsate and weaken; it will drive the Canadian government to either extreme anger, or defeated compliance.
Timing the completion of the U.S-Mexico deal within the probes of Canada will be super interesting. At some point as the U.S. closes in on the deal with Mexico, Canada is going to realize they are naked without any agreement.
The worst-case scenario for Canada is President Trump announcing the USMCA exit on the same day he announces a completed bilateral deal with Mexico. (more)
Last point. Expect the U.K and EU to financially backstop Canada and purchase sovereign debt in an effort to support them financially. It will not be enough, but they will try to offset Trump’s leverage. Keep watching.
Most Americans don’t know anything about this either. I get attacked in comment sections for knowing too much.
When President Trump negotiated the USMCA/CUSMA , were the Canadians really under the false impression that they had ten years to negotiate if it was not renewed? It’s in black & white on the official documents. Their reading comprehension needs work.
They prefer “pretending” as opposed to “reading comprehension.”
Trump wasn’t supposed to win again. By all accounts they may have thought he was going to be in jail.
So just cruise along with the current USMCA and let Pres. Harris tweak it into a new NAFTA.
Or not be in office. 2020 Cheat = unintended consequences
They only heard Trudeau’s conniving idiocy and floored by listening to his slightly more capable replacement.
But for reading/ learning the agreement on this site (CTH) would you know what it contains from our media?
The Canadian team will be flummoxed by these events, but not the Treehouse Community.
Thank you, Sundance. Your research and analysis are appreciated!
“………………..but not the Treehouse Community.”
With the research and analysis Sundance provides us, we can also be referred to as the Truthhouse Community……….
Amen!
Been waiting all day.
Happy 250, Treepers.
Enjoy!!!!!!!
The Canadian Truckers tried to show the Canadian people what the hell was really going on in Canada and put their lives on the line for doing it, but the people fell for the BS that the media and the Gov. were spewing and went against them. Like they say, you can’t fix STUPID.
If the UK and EU insist on using other people’s money (OPM) to prop up Canada what they are going to accomplish is sinking themselves faster.
Though, I would expect more financial shakedowns of US tech companies or other to get the money for it. Which is going to be extremely counterproductive with President Trump at the helm.
“If the UK and EU insist on using other people’s money (OPM) to prop up Canada what they are going to accomplish is sinking themselves faster.”
I often wonder if this is being done intentionally. Perhaps the money in London has seen the handwriting on the wall as they slowly succumb to their Islamic overlords. Could it be that they are deliberately draining the wealth of the nation so as to leave little to nothing behind as they quietly slip out the back door? The financial equivalent of scuttling the ship?
The last official act of any government is to loot the public treasury.
Saving it from the islamists was never the plan. Putting it all in fewer hands that intended to rule over everything, is. No loyalty to any principles beyond doing as one wills among the Masters of the Universe™.
“Last point. Expect the U.K and EU to financially backstop Canada and purchase sovereign debt in an effort to support them financially. It will not be enough, but they will try to offset Trump’s leverage. Keep watching.”
Of course that would be economic suicide on the part of the UK and EU. But if that’s what they want to do-bankrupt the entire EU-then go ahead.
FAFO
The Snow Mexicans had better get their heads our of their…..igloos 🙂
Oh…Canada…Not gonna be good.
Glad to see it. The U.S. has been in an abusive relationship with Canada for far too long.
To my fellow Treepers who are Canadian, I’m so sorry for what’s coming. Please get prepared if you’re not already.
I wonder how this will affect Alberta’s secession vote?
What pains me most is all the suffering by innocents that has gone on far too long under the Crown’s occupation of northern North America… Well enough about the clubbing of baby seals…. FAFO, Canada. The clock is ticking on the setting of Britannia’s sun over your beautiful native lands. The day you embrace Individual Sovereignty is the day you gain your freedom as subjects subject to the whims of the Crown…
The World Cup has exponentially replaced the pittance in embargoed Canadian Touro-dollars you sought to foist upon us last year. Go cry us a RIVER OF MAPLE SYRUP, AND HAPPY Wednesday, everyone 🙁
Yesterday we read here that the Canadian dollar is collapsing, I’d imagine this just pushed it along even more towards that collapse.
Hah, the walrus rolls over to Canada, “I’ve got a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico, whadda you got?”.
Awaiting Sunriver Patriot’s commentary on how this isn’t a good move for the USA in 3…2…1…
“… yet I am still gob-smacked at the inability of the Canadian media to recognize what is evident and explain what is about to take place.”
I wonder how much it is inability and how much pretending.
Canada acts like a petulant child. Why the USA has been freely supporting them with $Billions annually for no ROI is baffling. It’s like a parental allowance for a teen w/o a job or direction. Canada seems to cling to arrogance instead of facing reality.
Any nation who is in an agreement with the US such as USMCA and changes it to them being first is definitely in a delusional state. They weren’t even listed as number 2. That is one big head the government of Canada has.