I have not written as much about the economic analysis coming from the official institutions of government because, well, quite frankly, none of it has made sense for several months. In this era of great pretending, I am reminded of the official catchphrase which began in 2021, “managing the transition.”
When you contemplate that “managing the transition” can also equate to controlling public opinion, and when you overlap the dynamic of large U.S. institutions manipulating information in order to control that opinion, then suddenly the trust in the data evaporates. When the reality of the economic situation you can measure, gauge, and sense on Main Street is increasingly detached from the government data about what’s happening on Main Street, things get weird.
EXAMPLE TODAY – Bureau of Labor and Statistics: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent.” That’s the topline as announced.
Then you drop to the adjustments on the same report: “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.”
September and October are generally significant upticks in labor, as the process for holiday preparation (shipping, transport, etc.) are underway. However, that historic pattern is no longer applicable. We see consumer trends in a downward direction, general uneasiness of the economic situation is relayed by businesses and consumers who are the key to reality, and yet the official reporting reflects something entirely different. Thus, you must ask yourself if this is part of the aforementioned “managing the transition.”
Additionally, staying with the bigger (non-pretending) picture, the U.S. government intentionally imports 7.5 million illegal aliens. Where are they in the data of employment conditions? Is there a metric that can evaluate the impact of a non-skilled labor influx that takes place simultaneous to a negative economic reality of inflation and diminished wages felt by those traditionally measured.
(more…)