Several people have written to CTH for an economic review of our current status. Below this post are two primary precursor articles [Primary One and Primary Two] which outline the economic dynamic in play and how we can look forward with accuracy to what is likely to happen. Despite the deflective talking points by the professional financial pundits this massive spike in inflation is entirely predictable due to Biden economic policy and Biden monetary policy.
Keep in mind the FED has already said in April they would “support inflation” but that’s because while they will not say it openly they know there’s no way to stop it. The massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration; it’s a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. Also keep in mind the first group to admit what is to come are banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the cause.
There’s no way around this. Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash and unemployment will go up. I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear. CTH was the first place who said two months ago that home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now. There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.
You might remember when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.
Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years. With Trump’s policies we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling… The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.
♦Going Deep – To retain their position China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.
China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.
When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods. Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.
In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S. importers was the same as the outcome for U.S-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.
In the middle of this there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.
From 2017 through early 2020 U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy. For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada.
However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.
Industries were investing in the U.S. and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.
♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation. The Joebama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy via COVID bailouts and federal spending drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.
With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system the dollar value plummets. At the same time JoeBama dropped tariff enforcement to please the Wall Street multinational corporations and banks that funded his campaign. Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.
Simultaneously a lower dollar means cheaper exports for the multinationals (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. raw materials at a lower price. That means less raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers. It is a perfect storm… Higher costs for imported goods and higher costs for domestic goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological policy and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.
Annualized inflation is now estimated to be around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually this means housing prices drop because people cannot afford higher mortgage payments.
Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.
This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending. If the spending continues, the dollar continues to be weak, as a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.
Hope that makes sense, and love to all.
~ Sundance
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This screed hits the “nail on the head square”…what the Dems/Rinos are proposing is ASSET stripping of EVERY AMERICAN THAT SUPPORTED PRESIDENT TRUMP…
I abhor the thought that OUR government has become what it is due to “policies”!!!
Thank you Sundance for an enlightening article…
It’s no longer our government and therein lies the danger.
The question is where the housing bubble will pop first. Red states are very popular right now, because they’re mostly free. Mainland Chinese are buying up everything along the west coast after being chased out of B.C. several years ago. I can see the upper midwest being very hard hit, especially with looming job losses from factories shutting down again.
We could start by having a fire sale to include CA, WA & OR.
Who would you be selling us to?
Fire sale — Aren’t you literally on fire right now?! The heat look amazingly horrible!!! Hope you can stay cool.
Yeah. Sort of.
105 today, 111 tomorrow, and 107 on Monday.
Thank God I have AC – it’s an older system, so I’m using fans and trying not to push the AC to the point of failure. There is a point where it simply will not be able to keep up and there’s no point in pushing that….so far so good. It’s 98 right now and still going up the rest of the day. Will be in the 90s until nearly midnight.
Oh, well. It doesn’t happen very often here, so one hour at a time.
Fans help a lot! I’m like you with an old AC unit, but our temps aren’t nearly that hot.
Yeah – I decided I’d rather just deal with a big electricity bill than a new AC system bill! I’m fortunate–a lot of homes in this area do not have AC just because it’s the NW–and that can be tough if in a city. Once the concrete of the city gets heated through, there’s just no escape. I am not dealing with that. Even though the low tonight will be around 80, at that point I will be able to use the AC to pull things down before morning……and then do it again tomorrow. I’m grateful for how well it’s going at the moment!
If your A/C craps out, one survival technique is to hop into a tub of cold water to cool down. This should be a PSA broadcast on the local news. I remember the elderly dying by the thousands during heat waves in Chicago and in France.
That Chicago heat wave was bad–I lived thru it and you’re right about people dying.
Sharon – I am in South Sno County and it is insane! I was born and raised in Seattle (may God rest its soul) temps like these are so far out of my wheelhouse that I cannot imagine what the next two days will bring! Our real estate market is still so insanely “hot” (pardon the pun) that my husband and I may be forced out of our home if values keep going up at this rate. We simply will not be able to afford the property taxes on a fixed income. I am LIVID at the lack of leadership that has destroyed this once beautiful area!
real estate is crazy here, too–(central Willamette Valley between Portland and Salem)
$30+ Trillion would buy a lot of land
When I was growing up, all increases in property taxes had to be VOTED ON, and required a 5/8th majority to pass, as it was a tax on the few, the benefits of which were enjoyed by the many. And any increase had to be accompanied by a budget and justification for the increase (new police cars, or road lighting, etc).
School bonds to build new schools were voted on. Often, they got voted down. Then the govt went to “certificates of participqtion”, which functioned like a bond, required taxpayer repayment like a bond, but WAS NOT PERMITTED A VOTE BY THE PEOPLE! This method of financing spread like wildfire among local governments.
They beginning of the end was when the gov’t decided that prop tax payers would finance schools. Now it’s sales taxes, too, and additional fed taxes. It’s never ending, and gives us a CRAP PRODUCT.
I think it now costs $22,000 in CA to educate a K-12 child!! Highway robbery! For a crap product, and much of that is for the endless spawn of illegals.
We have a fairly new AC system (3yrs) and it runs flawlessly all year. Lady heat push 1 1/2 weeks ago we had our first failure. It will indeed only put out so much.
Let’s cross our fingers as we have my grands here.
Wait until the price of your electricity doubles because of the coming ban on oil and gas and forcing you to buy generation from wind and solar which costs way more per kilowatt — and won’t be able to meet demand to boot.
rolling blackouts
Yep. You got the pun. Surprised she didn’t.
CA, WA & OR have already sold themselves (and USA) out. Take a guess who they sold out too…not to hard to figure out.
“Fire sale” was a play on words…CA fires, again.
It used to be CDF California Dept of Forestry, a few years back they re named themselves CalFire, how utterly appropriate!
Ha! Good one. Probably done under the soon-to-be-recalled gov!
china, they already own all of the politicians , Idaho’s governor Little eats with chopsticks in private the guy is a criminal.
All those State are part of our Strategic Defense against China. It’s a real problem having all those people out there screwed-up in the head ?
Unfortunately in the DC area. Here housing is still sky high. With the Ziden Regime this is probably be the last place standing.
because, in DC, the national guard will physically prop it up?
More like FedGov employees are immune to economic downturns – no layoffs and always get raises.
Idaho’ s politicians and unionized government employees are a top to bottom crime gang . Criminal would call them criminal
Try Burbank, CA – 1 BR, 1 ba $1.2m.
I kid you not.
It was clear to me that 2020 was a choice between Boom or Doom.
And here we are.
Boom won but Doom doesn’t play fair so we’re stuck in the middle for now.
We the People made the right choice. But unfortunately, the choice was stripped from us and we were given Doom.
IMO….we reclaim our country when we give the left / Ruling Class (and all their enablers, defenders and supporters) not only doom, but Hell on earth.
Think ISIS on a bad hair day.
Please make this so.
This is a great commentary to send to any Biden voter you know who
is complaining about the economy. It’s what they voted for.
And yes, Trump won.
Absolutely to the point and excellent analysis, however, I am afraid, this admin’s continuation could lead to ‘stagflation’, the likes of late 1970s and early 1980s, or perhaps even worse. We were fortunate to have President Reagan then to reverse that disaster. However, the rate of deceleration now is faster in the past 158 odd days now. I personally, have been minimizing ‘made in China’ goods for more than a decade (nearly two); yes, it is difficult to find, but they are here, yes, it costs more, but quality is far superior. If POTUS Trump isn’t back before Jan 20, 2025, then, all citizens should at the very least try to buy as much local first, then US based companies’ products and then from foreign made goods and try never to buy anything from China. It is WE whom we have been waiting for, we must act. This needs to happen while we in parallel also try to fight voter fraud, once again, local first, district and state level next and yes, at national level, but, local is the key to a robust foundation for the fight (just like local purchases are key to reverse expatriation for our economy and jobs). Thank you.
“If POTUS Trump isn’t back before Jan 20, 2025…”
He won’t be. Stop believing in fairy tales. There is no Easter Bunny.
Mike Lindell says Real-President Trump will be back in office by August (this year). Do I believe him? No. Do I want to? Yes.
He will be if we REALLY want it…..
Ahhh! But there are Phychobunnies….
IT IS NOW …OR NEVER… dreaming about 2024….??? get real !!!!!!!!
Problem is all the unseen Chinese products; wonder why no new cars available? Chinese computer chips. Where is the national program to rebuild these factories in the USA?
The national program was rejected by Muh Wall Street and their Chinese & DC enablers.
Hopefully when it crashes The Hamptons, Martha’s Vineyard and Georgetown get especially crushed.
All of these traitors should be marched at gunpoint through downtown Portsmouth, Ohio, and injected with the very drugs that have destroyed lives and towns.
Elections offices are staffed almost exclusively by Democrats. We really need America First stealth candidates to become employed by those offices.
And school boards. We must support their campaigns. County commissioners. Etc.
They will need our oral and financial support… There are no conservative sugar daddies on our side.
Housing will crash? Wish someone would say that to the developers and builders tearing up my town between S.A. and Austin. They are shoving new homes into every square inch of my already beyond capacity crowd.
Musical chairs to a large extent. Wherever your new residents are coming from, there’s a housing market being propped up by someone else.
People cashing in on the bubble then will walk away from the debt. Unlike in decades and centuries past, the business model these days is debt-based. Milk everything out, move it to a safe haven then walk away. We’ve seen zero consequences for graft, theft, and, lately, outright killing as long as one is on the right side of it. That’s how things are these days. Builders are business people and human, they march to the same drummer. Pragmatism. America. 2008 was a warmup. Same thing happened in the years prior to that mess.
Where are the “safe havens” in your opinion?
Think like the wealthy, diverse and international these days. If not at that level, like an old customer, a Russian immigrant who made his millions hauling people’s trash, once told me, ‘dirt, they’re not making any more of it‘. Not a house in the suburbs.
I happened to be viewing a GIS map yesterday of the local area researching its history as a former townsite until the highway bypassed it a number of decades ago and was surprised how few humans were listed as owning property, rather it was all ACME Corp, XYZ LLC, Long Mustache LLP, et al. Humans hiding behind legalese. Use it.
Myself, I’m totally in dirt and leveraged everything out I don’t care about. The Communists will find nothing but goose eggs in places they have access to. It’s easy to live a simple life if one has the skills. One key is locating to an area with stable like-minded locals, meaning one finds synergy in faith and social interaction and people are rooted, not transient. Community. The rest works itself out.
And these areas still exist. Where I live (deep, deep red) we keep a few leftists as pets….
Look CAREFULLY at the pension/gov’t debt and unfunded liabilities in any state you consider. Also, water. Arkansas is perfect.
Low taxes, very high water table (lots of natural springs on the land), affordable property, hardy & friendly people, not much gov’t dependency. Arable land, very pretty. Few refugees.
NW AR is great. Good jobs because WM is there. Hate them, but they provide jobs.
Reasonable weather.
We live in Hill Country too. Moved here about 10 years ago. Population has more than doubled; some left leaning- I hope mostly right.
We get offers all the time on our house and refuse to sell. There is no where to go that we would like.
Hope we find land later this year to buy. When time is right than we’ll build something nice on it.
Hill country should put a freeze on new building for a minimum of 10 years so we don’t lose our small country feel.
Many new housing developments are being bought up by multi-national corps for rentals. People can’t afford mortgages and they have to live somewhere. The other scenario is that people may be buying now, if they have the money, to get in while interest rates are still low. The Fed will protect JoeBiden as long as possible but will only make it worse when they have no choice.
the UN plan is for no ownership (at least by us plebes), just rentals
Look at old Europe cities; land hasn’t changed hands for hundreds of years. Just land leases.
Same here in Utah. Prices are insane – people that grew up here cannot afford to buy new homes here or even stay if they wanted to. My daughter and hubby who built/bought a new modest home about five years ago would not be able to even come close to affording that same home today in their same neighborhood. It is very sad….We have become apartment saturated with new condo complexes going up every day on every single piece of available land. Awful.
A “Friend” purchased a home in the Ogden UT area 4 years ago.
It’s doubled.
It varies by region but the old adage of buying the worst house in the best neighborhood still appears to hold. I prided myself on friends paying more for their pickups than I did for my old age house and yet have a compound next to me that sold for over a million a few months before I bought seven years ago paying cash.
Similar parcels are now selling for 3-4x that price if one can find anything for sale. Doesn’t matter though, money is vaporware, someone else controls it and can make it magically appear (witness the current stimulus) and disappear (inflation, seizure, destroy the economy) outside of our control.
Buckeye, AZ is doing the same thing. Thousands of new homes and the city already admits they won’t have enough water shortly. The current administration seems to subscribe to the policy of “not our problem.”
Also, we have had a lot of growth in Central Ohio, yet the powers that be don’t put in roads to handle the extra growth, so traffic has become a nightmare.
Between handouts to corps, welfare, graft, govt pensions,, and the general incompetence of gov’t, there’s no money for infrastructure.
Infrastructure should be paid for by the states that use it, with a small contribution from the feds. P. Trump suggested in 8/2017 that it be 20% feds, 80% states, because the vast majority of use is by state and local people.
The states howled, because they have NO MONEY.
Think about it…Why would FL, with its excellent credit rating, want to pay the high interest that would be charged ro bankrupt IL, CA, NY, as would happen in Federal financing of infrastructure? NOT ME.
My CongressCritter won’t listen, and he’s a Pubbie.
It’s why I mentioned water. The onerous “Waters of the United States” EPA rule from 2015 would have allowed the change of definition of waters over which the feds have control, deleting the word “navigable”…Which means that they could regulate, shut down, etc. your private well on your private property. The rule was canceled by P. Trump… But it will be back, trust me.
AR has a high water table, and lots of natural springs on the land. Never surveyed or noticed. No “permission” to drill a well. Good, clean water. STEALTH WATER.
If you can’t water your xrops or your livestock, your self-sufficiency is screwed.
Common Sense Questions for All Americans…….
1) How does giving up US energy independence benefit Americans?
2) And by doing so how does asking Americans to pay 50-70% more for gas and energy benefit Americans?
3) How does ignoring illegal immigration and the crime, drugs and trafficking that comes with it benefit Americans?
4) How does outsourcing American manufacturing and jobs overseas benefit Americans?
5) How does CRT which promotes and teaches people to hate white people benefit America and not be a racists message?
6) How does raising taxes benefit Americans?
7) How does allowing inflation to accelerate to 4-9% benefit Americans?
8) How does continuing endless wars, especially since ISIS has been defeated, benefit Americans?
9) How does shutting down and controlling free speech benefit Americans?
10) How does taking Citizen’s guns benefit Americans?
11) How does denying honest and fully transparent election audits benefit Americans?
12) How does having unlimited mail in ballots, no voter ID and machines connected to the internet make elections more secure?
13) How does having a very bias media and big tech where all messages are control benefit Americans?
14) How does forcing an experimental jab on our children when 99.95% of them recover benefit American children?
15) How does having a FIB and DOJ that clearly demonstrates a two tier system of justice benefit Americans?
16) How does ignoring the rule of law and defunding police departments benefit Americans?
17) How is it that BLM burn buildings, destroy businesses, beat people and nothing happens to them while protestors who enter the capital with no weapons, don’t burn anything, get locked up for months. How is this equal justice?
18) How does eliminating tariffs on countries where there is a huge trade imbalance thus forcing America and Americans to pay billions to these companies benefit Americans?
19) How does Biden’s policies that promote a stagnant economy with high inflation benefit Americans?
The bottom line is NONE of the Biden policies make sense and NONE of them benefit Americans.
Americans need to see what the democrat party and the RINO’s really are and that is a pure Socialist Party that brings NO BENEFIT to Americans of a Capitalist and Constitutional Republic.
Has there ever been a Socialist Country where their people prospered?
IMO every American needs to answer these questions and what will become very obvious from these common sense questions is Biden, Obama and all their cronies are on the same level as Stalin, Lenin, Mao Zedong and Castro.
So ask yourself, how did the PEOPLE of these socialist country leaders benefit?
Answer – They didn’t. What they did get was death, destruction and the demise of their country.
Idiots vote for it. However we can reverse this in 2022
Not if election fraud isn’t fixed first.
I beg to differ, Jose. Regrettably, we aren’t voting ourselves out of this dilemma.
You can’t reverse ANYTHING without control of the Executive Branch. Repeat after me: Gridlock.
not if rinos keep getting elected
As usual, incisive questions @ Bogeyfree :-). If one supports even 2 (or more) of your 19 points, then they are ‘enemy of the states’. The real solution is to completely eliminate ALL tax exempt status at the Federal level; yes, most NGOs and many Churches (illegal immigration) are working against the nations. If any NGO or admin is forcing a far more expensive energy costs (even before the new green deal proponents, now with it, it’s beyond crazy!) for our fellow citizens in the nation, it is like throwing USA’s massive competitive advantage away on our own! This point in energy costs is most devastating, economically. If one supports increasing energy costs >60% in six months and replacing them with less reliable alternates, why would China’s policy makers not rejoice: enemies of the state, that is what we should call all these NGOs and govt. admins and bureaucrats! Thank you.
The people who “support” Biden’s policies flat out do NOT pay their own bills so they have no concern whatsoever for rising costs…and they also despise anything having to do with true justice, personal responsibility, private property, or moral laws unfortunately!
they get better increases in their govt check than we get in our paychecks
Question, where has the majority of debt gone in the USA? If your answer is government workers salaries and retirement benefits, you understand the systemic problem.
Yes on eliminating NGO’s. Foundations and Think Tanks! At least stop funding them with govt. funds. Most of them are the enemy and most support democrats.
I did a fundraiser with Marilyn Quayle in 1994 (Dan Quayle’s wife, very smart cookie), and she told me that in 1984, 85% of all fundraising was done in the private sector, for everything… Cancer, charities, politics, medical research, non- profits.
By 1994, it was all reversed. Almost all fundraising is now provided by gov’t at some level, through grants.
Think about it. Would we have the virus, if not for gov’t funding? ACORN and its ilk? Ad nauseum.
The middle class taxpayer is just a milk cow, soon to become a beef cow, because whatever these creatures get, it’s never enough.
Your excellent questions should be distributed far and wide. Thank you!
all socialist countries have started by usurping an existing economy/infrastructure, then bleed it dry
Every single Beijing Biden decision has been for the benefit of China.
Jill Biden’s still a skank, too.
Sadly makes sense. As noted the Economy Pundit Class is mostly in the Commie Dem / Wall Street / Pub Globalist corner.
Why the hell do people vote democrat its help me understand why.
The majority DON’T — Democrats cheat, as displayed SO arrogantly this past election.
With the help of establishment uniparty RINO’s, I might add.
the right and left wings are attached to the same bird
But the sheeple are to busy grazing on their new found mask free freedom and have no clue because the media giants have them brainwashed.
we (maybe not us here on this site) respond to them letting up on the jack boot on our neck by being so appreciative – isn’t it wonderful not to have to… or be able to… It resembles waves of tyranny to keep us from expecting too much.
This administration’s agenda was to destroy the robust economy the real President had put together. Not one individual in this administration, who is in a position of authority, is qualified to be there. To include the fake president. But then again, this country’s success was never on their agenda. Democrats hate this country being great, they prefer submissive instead.
On day one Joe by executive order cancelled reversed Trumps policies and reinstalled the failed policies of the Obama administration. That’s what 80 million people voted for .
Without real money as the foundation of the global monetary system there is no way for free markets to establish themselves, locally or globally.
Most people don’t know the difference between currency and money.
Exactly so.
Imagine what it would be like today if we had done the intelligent and freedom-loving thing as Americans and gotten Dr. Ron Paul into the White House back in 2008, but AT LEAST in 2012.
As far back as 2000, he was on the House floor warning us of what was inevitably coming if the realities of practical and real economics were ignored.
Well, here we are. And mostly still not listening to him.
Thank you for your post. I wish Bogeyfree understood these basic things; his questions are good, but they all depend on the foundation: the illegal 16th Amendment, the institution of the Federal Reserve System with its replacement of real money with fiat currency, and the income tax and its support organ, the Internal Revenue “Service.”
If people understood this and actively took steps to reverse and outlaw the criminals behind these anti-American (anti-human, actually) “policies” and departments, bank systems and projects and programs, all based on imaginary currency piling up on top of us real debt that we can never get out from under without permanently abolishing this evil octopus parasitic “government,” we would be the freest, most productive and prosperous and peaceful country on earth.
Wish there were someone qualified to carry Dr. Paul’s freedom torch. Do you think people are awake enough now to follow, support, and elect such a kind, gentle, honest, capable and knowledgeable person?
Yes, if just everyone with only 30 paper dollars just attempted to purchase 1 oz of physical silver, this fraud, that the dollar has any value, would be exposed.
So that won’t happen because the Kleptocracy gets too many electrons on a computer, from which they sell their immortal soul to Satan for?
Seriously, electrons are the most plentiful things in the universe, your soul on the other hand is precious.
So precious that the God of all gave his Sons life to save it.
Never forget this, it’s the only thing that matters.
After that, in our mortal world, only gold and silver is money, nothing else.
He was right about the Fed, but don’t operate under the illusion that going back to a gold standard would fix anything.
Lincoln, as much as I despise him, lifted the cou try out of its malaise with “greenbacks”, Treasury notes.
It’s a tricky matter, but someone like Martin Armstrong could do it well. You just can’t let politicians get their hands anywhere near the cash. And that’s impossible.
You’re right they don’t….but they will get a “crash” course very soon.
Yes but those in most need of it do not have physical gold. Follow in the footsteps of giants. Perhaps it has always been this way?
Hope we sell mom’s house fast, went on the market two days ago and we have had twelve folks come to look. Prices are nuts, so a girl can hope.
The question is what do you do with the currency from the sale?
Pay off any debts (if you have any), then buy durable, quality items that will help you get through inflation hyperinflation, lack of parts, etc. Sturdy gardening tools, water filtration, canning supplies with lots of lids, soaps, toilet paper, clothes line with pins, etc. Yes I’m talking prepping. Go old school — things that didn’t require gasoline.
We have done all that, got rid of debt after 2008, began prepping during Covid, need to talk to a financial adviser. My mama is still taking care of us the best she can.
Remember, you don’t need to out run the bear, just the average person.
You would be amazed at how unprepared the average person is.
Yes, it’s near impossible to find one that believes as you do. Fee-only.
Yes, all things of real value.
The force is strong with this one.
But some diesel powered tools, gennies, tractors, tillers, with plenty of parts & diesel set aside, would be worth gold. Rent them out.
It’s in greater Boston.
Leave the state. It’s in bad financial shape.
The thing about bubbles is that they usually go on for much longer than one might expect. My agent expects real estate prices to go up for the next two years, but she has only a local view. Whatever the case, when they do fall it will be sudden and unexpected.
Yes, local market dynamics come into play; how local markets move in relation to the larger state and country-wide markets. If one is late to the bubble due to being a historically lagging market, it’s likely for that particular market the bubble, if not imploded with a crisis like cessation of mortgage lending/monetary collapse, can go on improving as other markets have already peaked or are already in decline.
I track sustinence real estate in my historical state, CA, because I was close to it for decades and it produces a significant portion of the food consumed in the state and impacts the country and world as well. Sales are thin and prices haven’t come anywhere close to bubbling like residential markets have. That’s typical. However, I have noticed increased sales to foreigners and./or foreign controlled companies, but that has been going on for at least the last 20 years. My bet is people would be surprised at how much ag land is controlled by foreign entities. They’re usually smart though, buying on dips and recessions.
Like Covid, inflation is a great way to cull the elderly out, since they are often on a fixed income and are more vulnerable to reverses in health. Cull some first with Covid, then cull more with inflation. Millions removed from the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid rolls. Not bad. Pretty smart if one is a soulless actuary. Far fetched? OK.
Apparently the millenial generation is of age and they are driving the prices of entry level homes – which then drive prices of other homes – higher. And apparently this phenomenon is going to play out for the next 5+ years, especially if the Federal Reserve keeps printing dollars.
Enjoy the ride while it’s going up; the roller coaster will end with a very steep downhill.
It won’t be unexpected for Treepers….
I just sold out in Cali, I’m a native Texan, who went there to grow medical marijuana. I bought my property in the desert in 2012 for $66k and sold it 3 weeks ago for $400k. I’ve gone from desert rat to fat cat at the expense of the libs! That’s how you use the liberal laws against the libs for yourself!
Good gor you, locked down. That is the recurring theme of the dozens of newly minted Texans coming from California. All made a huge profit on their properties and are buying homes in my town for CASH. They are also buying other houses and renting them out. Has made my town unaffordable, which is what they did to Austin. Luckily, the ones I have met are here to vote red.
Your cap gains tax will be huge.
Facing the same issue with my parents house, but the city inspector is trying to make their life hell before they can even get it to the market. They already have to replace one septic tank, and that’s just the start. I am worried they won’t be able to sell before everything collapses. 🙁
Utilizing inspectors/ permit issuers are predators of the first order. Have known many. Usually people that couldn’t make it as contractors, even in a great market. Dumbasses that always raise fees just to provide full employment for their fellow gov’t dullards.
President Trump Opens a Verified Account on RUMBLE — Picks Up 45,000 New Followers in an Hour!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/06/president-trump-opens-verified-account-rumble/
Thanks! Just subscribed to him there – 66K followers as of now.
67K…
134k
Thank you for the information.
Black rock and Vanguard can soon buy up all real estate and bargin basement prices. Reset underway.
The sticky wicket is how government edict has affected the economy in general and real estate in particular. I saw a lot of squatters during the 2008-later bubble and crash and would expect that to pale in comparison to what is coming when people perceive the current milieu as a plan to take their hard earned property and life. I seriously doubt cash for keys will sufficient this time.
I wouldn’t want to be anyone connected with ‘taking’ of that sort, in or out of a uniform. If you think Portland is nasty pretty much every weekday night, imagine going after millions of home owners. Heh. Could be wrong but I think the country is spoiling for a blood bath and names like Black Rock and Vanguard may be the Pearl Harbor we’re looking for.
As an old guy with a dead family and plenty of backup assets I have test cases out there to test the banking industry and see where their vulnerabilities are when adverse action begins. Long hatred of their kind has only solidified in this latest operation. It’s gonna be interesting. I hope the academic scholarly discussion on CTH goes well. Kudos to those with that kind of distance from the trenches. I hope God blesses them with a long and fruitful life.
Maybe it’s time to short Blackrock.
Much as I disagree with many on that team, I would be very hesitant to short Blackrock. I have worked too damn hard for my money.
They have somehow gotten the ear of most foundations, pension funds, sovereign funds etc. – and lots of 401K accounts are (knowingly or unknowingly) invested in their funds. They are the current version of the 80s and 90s Fidelity Investments – and Fidelity is still riding high.
Suppose a DeSantis Administration wanted to look at the activities of Blackrock–including a DeSantis DOJ and SEC.
Wanna bet some “irregularities” would be found? 😉
Hey, the left started this and defined the rules. We’re just gonna play by them now.
As long as the Federal Reserve keeps injecting $120 Billion a month to prop up Bonds the markets will keep rising. At 0%, they are trapped. The Velocity of the money stock is going downward as shown here…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Which proves no confidence in government.
Investment firms are buying up homes to compensate for the potential loss or no profit in bonds and this includes fine art, collectibles, jewelry, etc.
The Federal Reserve is hoping and praying the 9.3 Million job openings will soon get filled and this is why you are seeing corporations offering hiring bonuses. The Fed is playing a game of cat and mouse.
the CAPE Ratio is rising here, the second highest in history…
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Fun times ahead.
fine art – where’s Hunter?
You can’t have hyper inflation without velocity of money, which has frustrated the Fed like crazy since 2008. Even now, ,Amy people are using the stimulus money to pay down debt and increase savings, which is highly deflationary.
BRAVO to this AMAZING explanation, Sundance! ?? ?
If I could follow this, ANYONE can follow this. Thank you for this clarity!
Understand the purpose is to lower our wealth and depend on them! When it’s realized it’s to late. Game over we lose.
Janet Yellen, The Federal Reserve Bank, Goldman Sachs and Wall Street in general spent billions of dollars to defeat President Trump and elect Joe Biden. There’s no way in hell they are going to have a real estate and/or stock market crash tarnish Biden and his Bolshevick Administration and make Donald Trump look good! Yellen will do whatever it takes including cooking the books to keep the market and the economy purring like a new Ferrari!
The Gods of the copybook headings will not be denied by Yellen et all.
Trump = Deplorables
Also, the Unemployment rate is lower because they don’t include those who have retired which in turn lowers this rate which is now 5.8%
The unemployment rate for May declined from 6.1% to 5.8%. That sounds like good news until you notice that the reason for the decline was not strong job creation but rather a decline in labor force participation.
You can be unemployed in the traditional meaning of the term without being counted as unemployed by the Labor Department. The difference has to do with whether you are actively looking for a job or not. Only the former are officially counted as unemployed. The problem is that the ranks of the latter are growing.
There are always some in the prime-age working population (ages 25 – 54) who are not looking for jobs because they are homemakers, students, early retirees, or are undergoing various life transitions. Still, the percentage of potential workers who have dropped out of the labor force is disturbingly high.
From Jim Rickards…
https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-theyre-wrong-about-inflation/
How would the BLS know who is looking for work or not? Obviously it’s a made up statistic which is subject to political manipulation!
They do have surveys.
But, as with all polling, the outcomes can be manipulated by changing the questions.
Old school still used for the strength of the economy…
https://www.shadowstats.com/
This silver bullion guy does a nice weekly update on markets and the coming inflation, of course his focus is on the precious metals impact; 14 minutes in length:
The Federal Reserves balance sheet as of 6/24/21 in PDF format…
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/fedbal.pdf
The charts are shocking.
Love Ed Yardeni. Didn’t know he was still publishing.
I suspect a significant drop in the market will be the catalyst for housing declines.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. It is currently at an all time high ( by far) which if history is a lesson will result in a massive correction.
The question I have is what does buyden and company stand to gain from the collapse
The destruction of the middle class and presumably control over all the people.
I suspect you are on the right track. In the last collapse govt was able to pick winners and losers. I suspect it will be to a larger degree on the next go around.
the multinationals won
Control.
People will be desperate and the federal gubmint will be the only game in town offering any hope.
Oh, forgot to mention….that hope will be conditioned on a whole list of things that the folks on CTH won’t qualify for.
Excellent as usual Sundance Thank You for all you Do.
You can’t have central banks flooding the globe with dollars and not have inflation. Commodity prices drive inflation but don’t cause it. A lack of increases in productivity, stagnant growth and excessive government spending will cause hell in this economy like nothing else. Great article Sundance
The Tv will tell us we are happy and we think what the Tv tells us to think and we do what theTv tells us to do we are the Tv watching drones.
We learn to emote on que. Marionettes, we dance on strings.
Thank you Sundance – I forwarded this to all my non-CTH family and friends. I greatly appreciate the time and effort you put into keeping us up to date and aware. You are the Bestest!!!
It makes. perfect sense.
Balance this against a very interesting report on CNN (of all places) and other Business News…the labor pool participation rate is dropping at an accelerating rate and the US Department of Labor is also reporting the “quit” rate is increasing at alarming rates.
In 2017-18 this “quit” rate increased but that was because at the time people felt confident enough to “quit” and move to a better job that were starting to appear. This was actually a healthy economic sign.
In today’s environment people are reported as quitting and do not look for jobs.
Of course this supports clamor for the importing of cheap labor, claiming “Americans do want to work”. One has to also wonder, do those unfilled skilled jobs really exist or if those jobs are created as the cheap labor imports are approved by congress??
re “labor pool participation” – my son is a tireman on the big rigs (iron ore and OTR trucking) in Colorado. Their shop has operated with 6 qualified/experienced road service men (including him). About 8 months ago, they got a new manager who was brought in to tighten things up, since several of the boys just didn’t want to actually work for their paychecks. One by one, they all quit, most without notice.
As of Memorial Day, he was the only remaining, qualified road service employee. They just didn’t want to have to work for the paycheck. (It is good pay and getting better for him…..hope he lives to spend it) Beginning a week before Memorial Day, he didn’t have a single day off until seven days ago, and at one point worked 48 hours with one hour sleep— when they finally brought in qualified men from stores in other states, to cover so he could get a break.
Talked with him this morning. They have had many “initial applications” for the positions that are open. He said they have made phone contacts with over 60 of those who applied, and not a single one of them is willing to come in for that initial interview. Apparently, they have to show that they are looking for work—-but perhaps don’t have to actually accept a job?? Who knows. But that is the situation they are facing right now: sixty phone calls and not one interview scheduled.
They don’t want to kill him (my son) or get into insane liabilities, so they have now identified for him the four long time customers that they want him to prioritize in service, and everybody else will have to just get what they can. It’s ugly. Just really ugly. (He’s been doing this for over 25 years)
They will be bringing someone in every other weekend to cover some of the calls so that he doesn’t drop dead or something. He just turned 55. Ordinarily there are three road service guys on duty at all times: 1 primary, 1 backup, and 1 on “days off”.
Because they knew his knees and back were starting to give out from wear and tear, they had created a supervisory/dispatch position for him inside, back in April. Their desire was to give him some relief so they could hang on to him long term. Oh, well. For the time being, that’s in the rear view mirror. One day at a time.
What a story!! See, this is the real danger… Horrible work ethic…Entitlement mentality.
If I were laid off, I would use it as an opportunity to apply for a job at a company with whom I had always wanted to work, and from which I would never expect to get a foot in the door or an interview. Use the oppotunity to make yourself invaluable, learn a serious skill.
I see this as a golden opportunity for the future. Most workers see it as a bother. Wow.
Trump’s “defeat” is the largest missed opportunity and self-inflicted wound in American history, and those who write that history will pen it entirely bassackwards…
The Country’s heading into its second only era of economic Stagflation, a Democratic specialty. This is going to be rough but like all hardships in life it’s also going to be a blessing in disguise. It’s going to paralyze the Democrats ability to print money and coopt countries, organizations, and people. We’re not a little banana republic – China’s not going to be able to come along and subsidize their operations.
The Democrats are going to be completely despised, and if there are any Tyrants in this Country, It ain’t going to be them.
When the economy craters, it creates a widening hole that even those who were decently shored up get sucked into the pit. The economy falls out from under them.
A depressing reality. How can we prepare? Can we even prepare?
The uniparty will rock the economy and the market, and the people will sell off, which will drive taxes on cap gains up.
I’m sorry…but I beg to differ re your analysis of Real Estate. I am in the biz…you cannot sweep a magic wand across the US and make a general statement as you did.
All real estate is local…yes home sales will plummet in Blue States…red states will continue to prosper from the exodus of the blue states to the south such as Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Georgia. This is because of higher taxes, loss of industries, CRT in Schools and political left environment. When O took office in 2008, i thought the same as SD, yet here in Texas, real estate and business in general continued it’s upward march. Interest rates will rise, but people will continue the exodus out of blue states.
Strong Red state leadership in these states will prosper…and will attract from all over the country.
Remember…everyone needs a place to live…either a home or apartment. Amazon has decimated the Retail biz even before Covid and Covid decimated the office biz. It will slowly return albeit at a slower pace.
i do think the goal of the left is the destruction of the banking system via a “manufactured ” crises such as another Covid. Their goal is control of the Banking system and with it our bank accounts.
Interest rates will be key
Math is Math.
Everyone disputed the deflation I predicted in 2016 if Trump won. No-one believed that was going to happen either. It did.
If you believe home prices will continue at the current pace, or even keep the current value…. you are wrong. It is a matter of the physical number of bodies and earnings. Home prices are about to collapse. The drop in new home sales last month was the precursor…
The FED purchased $1 trillion in mortgage backed securities last week with your money. It ain’t going to last.
I am a realtor as well in AZ. I listed my home a month ago…sold it at a record high in one day. Closing in two days. Most realtors in my area have listed or are currently listing their homes. We all know what is coming in the next 18 months. Utter collapse in prices as small business owners tap the only equity they have to keep their businesses afloat..the equity in their homes. We haven’t seen the bankruptcies begin yet, but we will. The globalists crushed main street.
Right now, inventory is at just over 1 million homes nationwide and a healthy market requires an inventory of about 2.2 million homes. When the 2 million homes go on the market that were in serious distress prior to Covid (over 3 months late payments) and at least half of the 3.3 million homes that took part in the forbearance program get listed…prices will fall dramatically. It is math as Sundance says….more houses on the market and prices drop. As people try to pull equity out from their homes…there will be a mad rush to lower prices to compete with all the other homes on the market and the falling knife will begin.
We’re not buying back in for at least 18 months. Travelling this great country of ours and renting VRBO’s along the way. Trying to live our best life!
Agree with most of this, but inflation peaked at double digit numbers in 1974 and 1979, and again in 1980. Inflation averaged 7.1% during the decade of the 1970’s. My disagreement is with what inflation does to real estate prices.
In 1974 the median home value in the USA was around $30k, inflation adjusted $160,000. In 1979 it was $53k, and $191k inflation adjusted. A decent return in 5 years of some of the worst inflation this country has seen.
From that point on, inflation adjusted housing prices flatlined and fell to $170k in mid-1983, and didn’t return to the 1979’s $190k range until late 1986. Seven years of real estate just getting back to wear it started in 1979, even as inflation peaked in the 14%’s in 1980 and was down to 6% by late 1980.
Prices then rise to a high of $205k in mid 1989, less than a year after Reagan was out of office, then fall again, not getting back to $205k until late 1999, the end of Clinton’s terms.
We then climb to the $280’s, again inflation adjusted, until 2007 and the real estate bubble pop. We bottomed out in 2012 at $200k, got back to $280k in 2020, and now sit at over $320k and rapidly rising prices (for now).
My point is real estate and other commodities are traditionally and historically seen as a hedge in times of inflation. Yes it hurts savers and hurts wage earners until wages increase (which also historically happens during inflationary periods).
Real estate is high right now, but it’s more related to people working at home and choosing to invest more of their spending there because of Covid and technology allowing it, artificially low mortgage rates, material supply-chain and labor issues for new homes, and low supply of existing homes.
Inflation will cause higher material and labor costs in new homes, which raises prices. The real concern is the current cost of new homes is almost equal to resale homes, which is rarely seen.
We have been small time Real Estate investors for nearly forty years.
As has been stated Covid etc has assisted in price gains.
But simply the major driver is interest rates.
A small unit we own with a partner in a desirable area. Just qualified for a 1.45% 5 year mortgage.
We hold a large equity position. Anyone that is getting into this crapshoot with 5 or 10% down is foolish.
0bama wants stagflation. He hates America. He is using Potato Head Biden to destroy America.
I’m selfish to hope this is correct. We can no longer buy a home in our hometown because New Yorkers, New Jersey-ites, Massho–s all moved out of their lavish city apartments and bought up everything in our state. You can’t compete with them, they apparently have disposable millions and they bought every doghouse around. We just about gave up. Houses are increased in price by at least a third in the last year, some houses doubled in price over what the owners paid a year or two ago. Hey, I get it, but at the same time, it stinks to have your communities overrun and bought up by people buying an extra house so they can get away from the Marxist crapholes they voted for and wanted.
You want millions to lose tens of thousands in equity each so that you can better afford a home? Are you anti-free market?
I would if it keeps people from NY and NJ out of red states.
Thank you for the insight! Now, how to prepare the best we can for what’s coming.
To sum up…we’re boned because the DNC cheated us and the GOP was secretly hoping for the exact same outcome so they didn’t fight it. May they all burn in hell along with their disgusting media cheerleaders.
Thank you SD there is no turning back this is a fight for survival, this is a fight for America, this is a fight for our way of life. Whatever it takes we will take the fight to the enemy and we will prevail.
What is the 50% gas price increase referenced off of? Todays prices?
June 2021 -vs- June 2020.
Or June 2021 – vs- October 2020
Take your pick. Same outcome
Ok I needed to know if you were talking about increases over todays prices. I just test drove a Prius 54 mpg gas and 133 mpg electric. A 50% anticipated increase over todays prices would tip the scale enough to move from contemplation to buy.
Inflation/hyperinflation isn’t going to matter to 90 million Americans because if Patrick Byrne is correct, we will be fighting for our lives against the US Military. Also see Greenwalds latest substack on the issue.
https://creativedestructionmedia.com/video/2021/06/26/ga-record-launch-party-commentary-with-patrick-byrne/
very scary what the left is doing to our military. yes, they will kill you and take your guns. they are being trained to believe that you are evil.
Paid $20 for 6 boneless chicken breasts yesterday, pork ribs $20. Gas is 3.89. Hand lotion, $8.99. California is a mess.
Ouch. You may have to start shoplifting, since California doesn’t think it’s a big deal. When in Rome…
I paid $13 for 2 boneless chicken breasts yesterday. In NC. Ouch!!!!!!
Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street, are going to be picking up a lot of bargains.
And thats by design. Also many people will be selling off personal treasures–old cars, artwork, antiques, heirlooms……stuff they would never normally part with, at rock bottom prices. The 1% loves it.
BIDENFLATION!! All to benefit the multinational corps. I guess they didn’t already get enough by closing down all their competition during covid lockdowns.
MACRO ANALYTICS – 06 17 21 – It Always Ends The Same Way
MACRO ANALYTICS – 04 29 21 – Covid Has Triggered The Next Great Financial Crisis
The only thing I disagree with is that Biden is driving this. I don’t believe Biden is in control of anything, including his bowels. This is all being driven at a much higher level than Biden and is obviously a coordinated effort. I’m am not convinced that China is part of the Globalist plan unless Xi is thinking after the apple cart has been tipped over he can step over the cabal and seize control.
Just curious, has Kudlow said anything about the imminent destruction of the dollar?
Is there really a plan to convert to multiple forms of made up electronic money?
Sundance, I fully enjoy these dissertations that you put to print. Real world economics that cause one to use their brain for thinking and not mindless TV or video games.
CTH should compare expected inflation around the world….country by country.
I expect we would see US economy declining while others increasing with inflation included.
Nothing provides more unrest and chaos than spiraling inflation.
The only way any of the current policies make sense is if the destruction is intentional.
Then every decision and policy appears to further that end.
The solutions to our mountain of debt are much higher taxes (promised by Biden), hyperinflation or a sudden decline in the number of dependents on the welfare state (Co-Vid, anyone?).
The indifference of the authorities to gun violence in poor neighborhoods could cynically be chalked up to culling the herd of welfare recipients.
Traditionally, the rich were regarded as being hostile to inflation, as they were the people with money in the bank. But the multi-billionaires, like Zuckerberg, who rule our new Corporatist world, don’t have money in the bank (after years of negligible returns in interest: why would you?) they have their money in the booming stock market. The hedge against inflation is to get much richer, and the super-rich have.
Famous hospitals with active liver/kidney transplant programs get their organs from the Chicago dead. A 20 year old liver is better than a 65 year old liver even if they are a gang-banger.
That is what I don’t believe many people grasp yet. Even our best pundits.
The Federal Reserve Bank, Wall Street, Goldman Sachs and the tech billionaires spent billions of dollars to defeat President Trump and elect Joe Biden they are not going to destroy the stock and housing market making Biden and his Bolsheviks look bad. Making Biden look like the idiot he is would increase the chances of President Trump returning. That’s the last thing that Goldman Sachs wants! Yellen will easily cook the books on inflation and unemployment!
The problem is, they don’t have that kind of control. Lord have mercy.
Once you realize that there is no Republican or Democrat Party, all the decisions our selected politicians come to, make perfect sense.
Congress doubles the rate of deficit spending with every president. If they did not we would never show any growth. When your manufacturing is done overseas there is no manufacturing growth.
We have switched to a housing economy in the early 2000’s and have been dependent on housing to offset manufacturing losses. The housing market is dependent on continued low interest rates and we have nothing to backfill the hole if we lose the housing market.
Since many view their home as part of their retirement package, loss in home value impacts consumer spending due to negative wealth effect just as lower stock markets do.
Who would do such a comparison study? From where would the time and money to do this come from?
CTH is already stressed out.
Inflation is terrible for the middle-class. And we know that suits the democrats at least sub-consciously but it’s also very problematic. That’s where all the people are. There’s not many rich or poor people. What amazes me is how these idiots think they’re going to be the ones left standing after the mess they create.
“The one thing I know is I don’t know anything” – Socrates