There is a general rule that applies to geopolitical contexts surrounding 96 hours or four days. The timing is the difference between an event happening Day one, the analysis of the event by nation states communicated to leadership, and the policy shift outcome in Day four. The rule of 96 is consistent and it is worth understanding.
Four days ago, the EU oil disruption from Saudi Arabia’s East/West pipeline event was noticed. In the four days between event day and policy day (#4) the EU have been beating the drumbeat for war against Russia. However, you will notice the shift in tone and policy now that we have reached day four. Analysis has reached policy makers. You might say reality sets in.
Europe now recognizes a vulnerability that was not in their policy briefs 96 hours earlier. Things change {SOURCE}, and the quiet stuff starts to become visible. Russia has been sending France oil/gas energy products, quietly. Macron needed the internal stabilization because he’s been up against a wall. On top of all his other issues, Macron could not afford an energy crisis.
Simultaneously, despite what we have been told by Western media, the 5,000 strike drones into the Moscow region should again be taken in context. Russia is an analog system in a digital world. Russia is exceptionally resilient and can repair and recover much faster than western analysts ever fathom. Again, apply the ‘rule of 96.’
Russia is now overproducing diesel fuel. Wait, what(?) you might ask. It’s true. Russian strategic diesel fuel reserves are now full and overproducing 15% beyond storage capacity. {SOURCE} So, where is the excess capacity going? To the “stans” in Central Asia, from there it ships to forward destinations. Turkey is a dependent beneficiary. Do you remember the strategic agreement between the USA and Kazakhstan? {Source}
Russia increased diesel supplies to Mongolia by 73.4% in August from July to 215,000 metric tons, while shipments to Kyrgyzstan surged 16.4 times to 72,000 tons and deliveries to Tajikistan rose 3.5 times to 56,000 tons. Russia also exported 28,000 tons of diesel to Kazakhstan after making no deliveries there in July. {source}
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