This is not good news for Canada who appears to be hoping that leftists in congress will support the Canadian position on retention of the USMCA trade deal.  However, the position of the United Auto Workers and their President Shawn Fain works perfectly with the position of President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

The UAW leadership supported Kamala Harris in 2024, and they carry a lot of sway with Democrats in congress.  In fact, it is entirely possible the 20 Democrat Senators who wrote a letter to USTR Greer about getting tough on Mexico and Canada, may have been responding directly to what UAW President Shawn Fain is demanding.

The UAW rank and file align with President Trump and their leadership, despite their roots of alignment with Democrats, support the trade tariff approach by President Trump.  All of that nuanced interest now begins to assemble quickly, and the political leverage plan of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney looks weaker by the day.

Wall Street Journal – As North America’s trade treaty approaches renewal or renegotiation this summer, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain slammed the deal and called on the U.S. to upend it—or scrap it altogether.

Fain’s position pits the 400,000-member union against both the American and foreign-based automakers that are calling on the U.S. to preserve the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade treaty, or USMCA.

[…] Fain blamed USMCA and its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement, for the loss of millions of American auto manufacturing jobs over the last several decades.

“Where it didn’t eliminate jobs entirely, it slashed wages and benefits,” said Fain, wearing a “Kill NAFTA” T-shirt on a video call. “There is no future for the U.S. working class that doesn’t address the free-trade disaster.”

[…] While Fain endorsed Kamala Harris for president in 2024, he has been a vocal supporter of Trump’s tariffs on foreign automobiles. He is one of the few prominent voices within the auto industry to embrace higher duties.

[…] Trump has said the levies are needed for national security, and his team has publicly considered ditching the USMCA or splitting it into two separate deals as the governments undertake a review of the agreement this year. (read more)

This is one of those interesting MAGAnomic sub-plots that is worth paying attention to.  President Trump and Jamieson Greer have repeatedly hinted they are going to formally announce the exit of the USMCA (CUSMA in Canada) trade agreement in favor of two bilateral deals.  The position of the UAW aligns with that approach.

If the UAW supports dissolving the USMCA, then suddenly Mark Carney loses his strategic plan to leverage Democrats for retention of it.

Keep in mind, Toyota has already told Canadian trade officials that if they lose the USMCA the Japanese auto giant will close manufacturing in Canada and just produce more in the USA.  Several other auto companies have put Canadian investment on hold due to the same outlook.

All in all, this is good news for those who would prefer to see two bilateral trade agreements, one with Mexico and one with Canada.  There is no reasonable way for Canada to retain their carbon trade/exchange policy and remain compliant with both U.S. and Mexico manufacturing.