USTR Lighthizer and Secretary Mnuchin Begin Trade Meetings in China – POTUS Trump Tweets as Expected…

The financial media still doesn’t get it… Obviously! Transfixed and jaw-agape at seemingly at-odds aspects to a new engagement with Beijing, the MSM financial media are clueless. They are genuinely disconnected, and have no idea what is going on.

The majority of financial pundits are perplexed at what they can see on the surface. USTR Robert Ligthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are beginning discussions with Beijing. Meanwhile President Trump’s tweets seem to dismiss the potential of the deal-making. The media call this mixed-messaging; however, that’s not what this is.

Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful last week when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First trade policy, there’s was a very clear picture. However, as we expected, most pundits and trade analysts ignored the administration message.

Commerce Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class when he said the current objective for Mnuchin and Lighthizer was to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.

That was a big tell.

After weeks of phone calls and staff contacts if the U.S. team didn’t know the answer to that question, well, there’s almost zero likelihood of any optimistic outlook.

In essence, the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize stock markets.

It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China. Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.

There’s only a very small chance a trade deal with China will be reached. The reforms within the original Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He agreement were antithetical to Beijing.  Chairman Xi Jinping and the communist politburo rejected them.  For Beijing the compliance and enforcement sections within the agreement were too severe and did not allow China to retain control over the trade terms.  The agreement was rejected.

President Trump understands Chairman Xi is looking at this as a zero-sum position.  As a consequence it’s not a matter of “if” Trump will apply more tariffs; it is a matter of “when” will Trump apply the tariffs.

That said, there’s no duplicity in the U.S. Position. Mnuchin and Lighthizer are earnestly working in good faith; but President Trump is expecting ‘no deal’.

When President Trump expresses that hardened position, just accept it – and then look around at what else he is positioning to counteract that expectation/result.

Tariffs on China are coming; the question is the scale and timing. It’s likely Trump won’t strike against Chairman Xi until the USMCA is ratified.

That’s why October 21st, 2019 is important.  That’s the Canadian election.  If Justin from Canada loses his re-election, Speaker Pelosi cannot hold out on the USMCA until after the 2020 election.

Mexico has already ratified the USMCA.  If Justin loses the next Canadian election, his successor will assuredly ratify the USMCA quickly.   Nancy Pelosi cannot hold out if Mexico and Canada have both ratified.

Once the USMCA is set, there’s no motive for a low China tariff targeted to gain leverage toward a deal that would avoid higher tariffs. In this landscape there is no deal possible; therefore the scale of the tariffs against China will be very significant.  My best guess is 25 percent on everything, based on: (A) the continued devaluing of currency and subsidies that Beijing is pre-committed to; and (B) Trump’s message about that manipulation.

President Trump is positioning for an economic platform in 2020 with specific deliverables.  Trade and tariffs with China + the USMCA + trade and tariffs on the EU + the possibility of an independent U.K trade deal…. all adds up to massive net American economic value that will extend for decades.   It’s like a series of dominoes.

The USMCA changes the global dynamic of how multinationals will gain access to the U.S. market.  That kicks off a series of geopolitical moves.  I firmly believe the U.S-Japan deal is already worked out.  Lighthizer, Ross, Mnuchin and Navarro didn’t spend all that time with Japan in the month ahead of the G20 meeting in Osaka for nothing.

Think of China like a big lake filled with U.S. economic value.  Through his Asian discussions with Vietnam, S Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Japan, et al, President Trump has stealthily built a thin levy, an ASEAN dam of sorts, that will direct the China lake of economic value into Southeast Asia.

Once the USMCA is signed, Trump will blow the dam by triggering the tariffs.  The exodus will benefit those who partnered with Trump.

You think it’s an accident that Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is scheduled to come to the U.S. as an official state guest of President Trump on Sept. 20th?

Rucky day, Rucky day

“Economic Security IS National Security”…

~ US President Donald Trump

 

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This entry was posted in ASEAN, Auto Sector, Big Government, Big Stupid Government, China, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2020, India, Japan, Japan, media bias, N Korea, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, United Kingdom (UK) and Great Britain, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

92 Responses to USTR Lighthizer and Secretary Mnuchin Begin Trade Meetings in China – POTUS Trump Tweets as Expected…

  1. The man is thinking light years ahead of today.

    Liked by 21 people

    • Peoria Jones says:

      And we’re lucky to understand that, by virtue of reading here. I’ve been awaiting POTUS’s tweets on this and have so much delight in them, while the average citizen can not fully enjoy his mastery. So thankful to have the knowledge to appreciate these tweets for their full worth. 🙂

      Liked by 19 people

      • GB Bari says:

        And we’re lucky to understand that, by virtue of reading here.

        I want to underscore how profound your statement is.

        The length to which Sundance goes to present CTH readers a cogent, honest explanation of President Trump’s policies, mindset, and strategies is unequaled in virtually ANY MSM websites, articles, broadcasts or opinion shows.

        CTH’s continuous exposé of DemoncRAT AND Uniparty RepubliCON strategies, fraudulent misrepresentations, general deceitfulness and their incestuous unethical relationships throughout the DC Swamp is unparalleled in its comprehensiveness when compared to all of the other good, conservative-leaning, investigative alternative websites.

        Liked by 10 people

    • sturmudgeon says:

      Is there ANY possibility that anyone other that This Amazing Man, would (could) spell all this out in plain English this “in your face” manner, and have The American People LOVE IT!! Thank YOU, President Trump, The Warrior!

      Liked by 9 people

    • Carrie2 says:

      H&HC, Pres. Trump knows how to win the game and that is get to know those you are playing with and then slowly but surely the others are watching and wanting to see how he can play and play and play and never lose while those with big money and think they are the best players find they are bankrupt! He definitely is building a WALL around China and the result will be interesting.

      Like

    • Dayvz says:

      This isn’t really complicated. As more and more American dollars are diverted to China, depleting our utility from those dollars within our own country, we crumble as we finance their ascension. Trump may be regarded as a buffoon but his commitment to the economic security of this country is unquestionable and his strategy and tactics are achieving results sustained by the public’s understanding and approval of his America First policy.

      Like

  2. Sandy says:

    The very best commentary I have ever read on the China Trade issue. It is clear that we must stave off China at all costs. Trump will not continue to allow China to play games, he understands this threat; particularly given its control over NOKO. I was aware of where he was going with the UK, given he can get old Boris to keep his nerve this time, and dump the EU. What I wasn’t aware of is the issues regarding Canada and the election in October. This completed the puzzle for me nicely. Thank you.

    Liked by 7 people

    • Dutchman says:

      Reading Sundances articles on trade, (taking his graduate level coarse in Maganomics 101) some time back I had an “ah-ha” moment, realising he wasn’t
      LOOKING to get a trade agreement with China.
      D.C. swampdwellers and economic pundits, used to the phoney POTUS’s of the past don’t get this. They think PDJT is like the phoneys, and wants,a deal for short term political gain and legacy.

      He is channeling Reagan vs. USSR, 2.0.
      While the medium was weapons systems, what Reagan was really doing was forcing USSR to compete, centrally controlled economy vs free market economy, confident that that they couldn’t go head to head.

      PDJT is,doing the same thing; he is using TRADE, and “Economic Security is National Security” to bring about, ultimately, regime change.

      He WILL ‘Bankrupt’ China, and CCP will be forced from power.

      Anyway, while I as well as everyone else have been focused on China, etc. I have recently had another “Ah-ha” moment.

      He is/will do the SAME thing to EU.
      EU is (as he recently pointed out)an entity created to compete against the US, economically.

      It is also CCP ‘lite’for Europe. Central controlled economy, unaccountable buerocrats passing regulations weighing down economy. Big social programs, financed by other peoples money (US).

      Its “boil the frog slowly” hence no equivalent of tienamen square against the yellowvests in France, but give it 10-20 years and they will be there.

      He has and will make it clear he,will negotiate a bi-lateral deal with individual member countries, but will
      have his negotiators insist on an end to trade barriers, and EU imposed tariffs.
      EU will refuse, and he will hit them with crippling tarifs.

      Assuming Brexit is accomplished, he is prepared to make GB a positive example, even as he us making Canada a negative example.

      PDJT is the most aggressive anti-conmunist we have ever seen, yet he hardly uses the word.

      So bye bye EU, CCP rule of China, and Democrat party, assuming he has his way. Phenominal scope to what he is attempting!

      Liked by 11 people

      • matthewpmusson says:

        The one thing that could REALLY put pressure on China is if a couple of their tankers were attacked in the Straits of Hormuz. They do not have a Navy that could protect their oil life line and would be forced to ask the USA for help.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Dutchman says:

          Now, THAT would be FUNNY! I am pretty sure Iranians know who’s oil is in the tankers they are,attacking, and just figured it out!
          The attacks were,a,”shakedown”; they didn’t do much damage to the ships, really. And they were carrying oil for China and Japan.
          Its a “protection” racket. Iran is hurting for cash, so they are charging Japan and China for ‘safe passage’, say 10-20% of the value of the oil. A ‘tax’ ‘of sorts. And PDJT knows all about it, from Abe.

          Liked by 3 people

        • Ogre says:

          Aren’t they looking to ally with the Russian navy to protect those interests? Just asking….

          Like

    • Dayvz says:

      I have seldom had the kind of confidence in a journalist I follow in media the way I do with Sundance. I am continually surprised at the detail given that’s easy to understand, usually first, and always accurate. The Mifsud connection to Spygate was first known to me long ago because of Sundance. A treasured and revered individual from whom it is a privilege to learn.

      Like

  3. ann says:

    Your explanations are superb Sundance, I actually understand the gist of your ongoing reportage.

    Plus President Trumps tweets poke well deserved truth sticks in the eye of Resist DNCers & China. He lays it out.

    Yes, China is drumming up the old Mao theme.
    But the Chinese inner circle have choices – rather unreasonable of them & the Demos to insist we prolong their 30 year plunderfest.

    Liked by 8 people

    • Tall Texan says:

      Yes, he does poke them in the eye, along with the US Chamber of Chinese Commerce.

      Liked by 4 people

    • De Oppresso Liber says:

      Let’s not forget the bought-and-paid-for Uniparty republicans aligned with the USCoC – they have sold us out for decades by sabotaging our trade position(s) to favor the Chicoms.

      Liked by 3 people

      • ann says:

        I know, De., the GOPe bears equal culpability for sponsoring an estate estate of our country, and they slyly hide behind the obstreperous Democrats
        However, they have not directly refused as a collective to accept. our power as citizens to elect an outsider.
        Or tried to fob off a career crooks : Clinton on us as President
        Or voted united as a party to ruin an innocent man, judge Kavanaugh. .
        Etc.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. Dee Paul Deje says:

    Liked by 9 people

  5. LBB says:

    Really good interview with Maria & Tony Sayegh (was involved with trade deals).

    https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6065611103001/#sp=show-clips

    Like

  6. Pew-Anon says:

    I still don’t get why Pelosi would be “forced” to ratify the USMCA if Canada does. It’s not like she is required to by law, but I could be wrong about that. If it’s just a question of political pressure, the KKKrats are already committing open treason, so adding a little more open corruption in the form of refusing to ratify would seem to be a minor concern for them.

    Liked by 2 people

    • no-nonsense-nancy says:

      I think it’s because Pelosi met with twinkle socks when he came to DC a few weeks ago to try to make a deal with him. Is that against the Logan Act?

      Liked by 2 people

      • donna kovacevic says:

        Twinkle socks or as we I call it Justine Trudope will be gone October 2019 Lord willing. That thing is useless and more garbage about him coming out daily. I am praying that other Canadians can see the light and vote him out. God Bless PDJT.

        Liked by 4 people

    • KingBroly says:

      Political pressure that would be used against her and Democrats in 2020

      Liked by 2 people

      • Pew-Anon says:

        Again, see my OP. They are already under far more political pressure than refusing to ratify a trade agreement would put them under.

        Liked by 1 person

        • KingBroly says:

          Having the chance to ditch NAFTA, something most of America has hated since its’ inception, and not delivering, when it is viewed as ‘the thing to do’ for Democrats, particularly in the Rust Belt, is a death wish.

          Like

    • Pelosi would be the only thing in the way of ANY type of trade deal. The alternative is no formal arrangement with Mexico and Canada, which leaves Trump no recourse but selective and targeted tariffs at his discretion. At this point the Chamber of Commerce knows they have lost. It is better to complete the deal than to have nothing to replace NAFTA, which is terminated except for the official transition to USMCA. She has no choice. It will be nice to watch her pass USMCA and eat shit at the same time.

      Liked by 2 people

    • GB Bari says:

      Maybe your confusion is because of your possible misunderstanding of how critically important the deal with China is to so many American workers and small-medium business owners. Add to that your possible misunderstanding that the USMCA closes the “back door” pathway for cheap Chinese-origin goods coming into the US via Canada and Mexico (as it can now under NAFTA), it forces higher percentages of US-manufactured parts to be inside of vehicles that are assembled in Mexico and Canada, it specifies certain vehicle manufacturing labor wage minimums at $16 per hr., and this all adds up to a very embarrassing position for DemocRAT Nanzi if she pooh-poohs the agreement in contradiction to what Canada, Mexico, and the majority of American working class/middel class citizens all want.

      No, Nanzi doesn’t HAVE to approve it in the House, but by ignoring it, it will be become one of a few 500 lb. elephants in the voting booths in November of next year. The DemoncRATs will have enough BIG problems on their hands to try and beat President Trump. This is one they can easily get off the table (and be seen as helpful instead of obstructionist by the voters) by passing it.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. no-nonsense-nancy says:

    They wouldn’t be caught dead reading his books. If they did they would know how he thinks and why he does what he does. Thank you, Mr President, for being our rock.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. guybee55 says:

    I am LMAO over the tweet. Go ahead American, elect a lose DIM and see how well they do with China. If the DIMS get elected, Chinese might become the national language. Hit #1 for Chinese, hit #2 for nothing.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. lansdalechip says:

    Two things continue to bother me with this approach:
    1. Administration change in 2020. Not a major concern due the circular firing squad with the opposition. But it ain’t over until the rotund female warbles.
    2. Six years won’t undo decades of damage if #1 isn’t a problem. Who is the successor with the insight this one has and how adept will they be at replacing the wolverines with carbon copies, not some cheap, Chinese made knock-offs?
    For now, at my age, I guess I should just sit back and enjoy the ride. But the grandkids…..

    Liked by 2 people

    • Peoria Jones says:

      How’s ’bout you don’t just sit back, and instead educate the grandkids?

      Liked by 8 people

      • G. Alistar says:

        Oh Yeah….and grand nieces and nephews and cousins and neighbors and people at work, church, play, and especially your beer drinking friends down at the local tavern.

        Liked by 1 person

      • swissik says:

        Another grand parent here: I did it for years while I was involved in their young lives. Now they all (6) reached voting age and guess what? Bernie, Beto, Kamala etc. are on top of their list. I guess they’ll just have to get it out of their system, but my son says that this is what they understand and have become used to.

        Like

    • booger71 says:

      If your grandkids as adults is still having to buy cheap, poisonous Chinese crap then we lost. This is our once chance to make a big dent in the Chinese manufacturing base.

      Liked by 1 person

    • dd_sc says:

      Ross, Mnuchin, Lighthizer can name their own successors – maybe in 2022/2023 time frame.

      But yes, having someone not only pro-MAGA but also with the business savvy will be tough. That person will be going up against a large primary field.

      Like

    • Carrie2 says:

      lans, think positive because after another 4 yrs. those against us will have little or no power or popularity and most of our laws and regulations will be real but this also means the republicans better start rethinking if they will be re-elected (if have more than 4 terms no more re-election) in 2020 and years following. Do they want to be owned forever? We will find those to elect that will not be owned and warned they will be removed if they are working for outsiders. We must be as strong as our President in getting this country back to us and the great Republic it must be again. By then the DNC Party will probably be dead and will be interesting what other party or parties show up on the scene.

      Like

  10. dallavise says:

    To be completely fair, they are doing an amazing job, but I think it looks otherworldly because of how bad his predecessors were. And they weren’t really that bad, they just didn’t want to tell you that they were banking on policies which left the middle class in the lurch. I didn’t realize until the last couple years that we haven’t had a pro-American/pro-working class president since Ronald Reagan until Trump.

    Liked by 4 people

  11. KingBroly says:

    What happens if Trudeau’s party stays in power but loses its’ majority? Does the USMCA still get ratified? Or do they continue to hold out? I feel like the Democrats continuing to hold out, going further and further left will only help the President and his party in 2020.

    Like

  12. ALEX says:

    Hard to disagree. China isn’t going to change and Sundance pointed out this is most likely optics. I have a hard time believing they will live up to any signed agreement.

    On the Wall Street vs Main Street front…Sundance nailed it

    Liked by 2 people

  13. ALEX says:

    Hard to disagree. China isn’t going to change and Sundance pointed out this is most likely optics. I have a hard time believing they will live up to any signed agreement.

    On the Wall Street vs Main Street front…Sundance nailed it

    Liked by 1 person

  14. JoeMeek says:

    Here is to China becoming an economic leper colony.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. FL_GUY says:

    China has been robbing the USA blind ever since HilLIARy sold the country to them in the 90s. Basically, HilLIARy sold the USA down the river to every other country on the planet who had the starting ante to her bank account.

    President Trump is the first President who has the genius and the guts to take down the Chinese criminal organization.

    All their bought politicians in DC will not be able to save them. Those bought DC politicians better be concerned about what’s going to happen to themselves rather than China. The day of reckoning is coming fast now. JMHO

    Liked by 6 people

    • vikingmom says:

      Still waiting to see how Turtle McConnell walks the line between his constituents and his in-laws, who have been bankrolling him and the rest of the UniParty for decades!

      Liked by 2 people

    • G. Alistar says:

      Well, one good think about the last 30 years of economic prosperity in China, they have tasted the golden apple of economic prosperity and it “really” hurts them much worse than it would have in the 1970’s. This fact has given the US great leverage in negotiating today. If only that nation is smart enough to realize and re-elect a POTUS who knows what to do with that leverage!

      Liked by 2 people

      • Carrie2 says:

        G., this is what I have been saying after several visits and even studying in China, the Chinese populace has obtained some freedom, they love having great restaurants, clothes, shoes, cars, and better living places and I keep saying there are only 2700 communists left and many are elderly and will soon be gone, but the rest of the citizens are over 1 billion and I also think and hope their military while doing what they are forced to do would also melt away and work with the others to own their country. I truly pray for this because for the moment my Chinese friends cannot get emails from me or me from them and I doubt they have gotten the card/letter I sent as the stamp shows it is coming from America. China has a future but they need to get together to make it a good and freer one.

        Liked by 2 people

  16. There is one thing certain, the demonrats are totally aligned with our enemies of all nationalities. It’s completely baffling to me that they can convince people to vote for their own destruction. There is no cure for stupid.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Sentient says:

    “Democrat stiffs like Biden”. Hilarious

    Liked by 1 person

  18. georgehumphries9802 says:

    Lighthizer should be named “Lighthowitzer”

    Liked by 4 people

  19. 335blues says:

    I understand the analysis of why wait until the Canadian election.
    I don’t understand the downside of raising the tariffs now. Maybe the market gets spooked
    if all 25% additional tariffs are added at once. But what if tariffs are raised 5% more now,
    then another 5% in some time period later, etc.
    This should manage the spookyness on our side, but scare the hell out of communist china.
    Unless, unless Trump sees the value of NOT reaching a deal with china. The upside for us
    is great damage to the chinese economy, and hopefully the CCP.
    Anything that hurts the CCP will benefit America, and the world.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dutchman says:

      China has stolen trillions of $ from the US, over 20-30 years, lets get as much of that back as we can, rather than crush them quick.
      Managed decline for China, rather than crash, don’t kill the golden goose.

      Next up, same treatment for CCP ‘lite’ running EU.
      “I LIKE tariffs!” Me too, Mr. President,…Me too!

      Liked by 2 people

  20. Loren says:

    China will stall, till the election draws closer to know the truth, American citizens are not as stupid as they think. At that point, they will either be smart and make a deal before the election or be stupid and wait till after. All in all, I don’t think President Trump cares either way. They will get hit with higher tariffs before the election.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. Sherri Young says:

    The three letters that caused me to vote for Trump in 2016 = TPP.

    Liked by 2 people

    • dd_sc says:

      Rand Paul and Ben Carson were the only others against it weren’t they?

      Would not be surprised if there are “Steele Dossiers” on them as well. Just haven’t seen the light of day.

      Liked by 1 person

  22. thesavvyinvester says:

    I am waiting.. China spent tons of money buying up General Aviation companies (including one Engine Manufacture) and by extension took away these vaulted names from US ownership. Frankly, they are those in aviation that won’t have anything to do with them. I am waiting for things to get dire with their economy and they have to sell at bargin prices, oh the Schadenfruede, that goes for their investment in training facilities here as well. G-d Bless President Donald J. Trump, and Team Trump if you are lurking China cannot dominate in Aviation or Space of which IMHO General Aviation is the base, the starter Industry and Training arena for the entire Industry.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. Lots of talk about the USMCA.
    Has anyone considered whether or not it’s “pursuant” to the Constitution? or better yet, does anyone really care?

    1. Didn’t the Constitution give Congress unilateral authority to establish tariffs on foreign imports? YES it did, but….
    Art. 2.4 of the “agreement/treaty” divests Congress of the power to unilaterally determine our tariffs. Really? Read it!!!!!

    2. Our Constitution (Art. I) delegates to Congress the power to control our money.
    Art. 33.1 of the “agreement/treaty” surrenders the United States’ power over money and our economy to the IMF. …in other words, our economy is to be planned by the IMF. Do not take my word for it…or anyone else’s for that matter. You can read it for yourself.

    3. Our Constitution (Art. I) delegates to Congress the power to issue copyrights and patents.
    Art. 20.2 of the “agreement/treaty” subordinates these property rights to the collective.

    4. Our Constitution (Art. I) grants to Congress power over Migration.
    Art. 16.2 of the “agreement/treaty” subordinates the United States’ sovereign power over migration to an agency of the UN (ILO)!!!

    How many ways can this “agreement/Treaty” violate our Constitution?
    We’re not done by a longshot!

    5. Our Constitution (Art. II) grants to the President the power to make Treaties, provided two-thirds of the Senators present concur.
    The “agreement/Treaty” establishes the Free Trade Commission which is the governing body of the bureaucracy. Chapter 30 has the nefarious details of “interpretations” of the “agreement/Treaty” and they are binding on the tribunals deciding disputes between the Parties. Does this sound like the President (and Senate) have any say once this is ratified?
    We thus permit the “creature” of the Treaty to modify the document under which it holds its existence!

    6. Our Constitution (Art. III) grants to U.S. Courts the Power to decide all Cases arising under Treaties & all Controversies to which the United States is a Party.
    In violation of our Constitution, Chapter 31 of the “agreement/Treaty” restricts the parties to the dispute settlement procedures laid out in the “agreement/Treaty”.

    Just getting started folks. This is just our federal sovereignty rights surrendered! How many of the reserved powers were taken away from the States (or the People)? If interested (and you should be!) in further study, please go to:
    https://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2019/01/27/the-usmca-trade-agreement-violates-our-constitution-and-sets-up-global-government/

    Liked by 1 person

    • Sherri Young says:

      That sounds like the TPP all over again.

      Liked by 1 person

    • PatriotKate says:

      I had read elsewhere that it was the NWO via stealth.

      I’m calling my congressman tomorrow to get a feel for what they think.

      Like

    • KnowSERENoFear says:

      Thanks wethepeoplehandbook for keeping us straight on constitutional perspective. We can NOT afford to depart from our Constitution no matter the apparent short term gain. The IMF is a racket….NO WAY should our economic decision-making be made subordinate to an UNELECTED/NON-American panel. I hope USMCA fails…if so, we WIN.

      Like

  24. Publius2016 says:

    45 may look to engage earlier than later…dont think Canada Elections will determine next tariffs…believe Foreign Policy Issues like Venezuela Taiwan Crimea Middle East will dictate next trade move…45 knows 2020 is everything but that is over 16 months away….

    Like

  25. czarowniczy says:

    And meanwhile the Chinese are moving troops around and a higher level of identified government officials, these in the Chinese counterpart of DoD, are pronouncing a lesser level of protest in Hong Kong under which PLA troops would be sent in. Foreign embassies are being hit with requests for visas, monies are being relocated outside of Hong Kong and some foreign businesses have contingency plans for relocation outside of Hong Kong while a few have already moved.

    I find China’s postponement of a huge planned joint-force exercise right off of Taiwan interesting. The exercise was massive, not something easily just turned off with a flip of the switch. It appears that uniots and material moved into place have not been returned to garrison/storage but no definite date for a resumption has been stated. The exercise was a patently obvious practice for a Taiwan invasion, especially safter the US announced yet another massive arms sale to Taiwan.

    Could this be China not trying to hold an exercise that could easily go sideways if they were to feel the need to invade a recalcitrant Hong Kong and bring it into the fold – China’s patience is running thin. Could they also be trying to Chamberlain-test the West’s reaction to a Hong Kong invasion as a barometer to a Taiwan invasion? Whatever’s going on the Mainland has moved enough military equipment around and on land across from Taiwan to sink it, and is moving troops around that could be used in Hong Kong. Taiwan’s been a major thorn in the People’s side for over 70 years while Hong Kong’s been actively resisting assimilation by the Mainland for nearly 20, a clear challenge to Chinese power for the entire world to see.

    No word yet from the Rats on the Hong Kong/Taiwan goings-on other than the tired old recitations of our ‘One China’ policy and hopes that this can be settled peacefully through mediation. Guess the Rats are to bust stabbing old friend Israel in the back to worry about our old Chinese friends right now.

    Like

    • Arrest Soros says:

      Not much chance of China attacking Taiwan. Even the Europeans would sanction China. Once the US blocks off oil shipments from the gulf, China grinds to a halt.
      Then Australia and Brazil halt Iron Ore and other vital mineral shipments, then the rest of the Chinese industry grinds to a halt. (no need to even mention food shipments)
      China wouldn’t last 6 months.
      Hong Kong is a different matter. It was under British protection for 99 years but was taken from the Chinese as a result of the opium wars. I doubt the rest of the World would be too outraged if China moves in on Hong Kong (plus the rest of the World get the fleeing billionaires and their billions).

      Like

      • czarowniczy says:

        Hong Kong’s major problem would be its potential native economic loss to the Mainland, there’s a real question of how many banks and businesses would stay and how their loss would effect it. China’s studying its options but over the last two years it’s been ratcheting up the pressure on Hong Kong. It seems to be also ratcheting up its verbal attacks and outside countries recognize this, so far a number of countries in Asia and the West have sent delegates to Beijing to talk Hong Kong with various Chinese leaders and a few high government officials have openly expressed ‘concern’. A Mainland move on Hong Kong seems more likely than one on Taiwan right now.

        China could manage the international fallout from a Taiwan invasion, especially in the petro sector. It has a strategic oil reserve of somewhere between 400 and 500 million barrels and it’s been making inroads into Iran so it can get oil from there – do you think the US or NATO would stop and seize Chinese flagged oil tankers filling up in Iran? There’s the joint Indian-Iranian-Afghani agreement that will make the Iranian port of Charbahar a major shipping hub and China’s knee-deep in that, try blockading Chinese shipping coming out of there. China also has ports in Egypt that can pick up petro and a lot of infrastructure it’s building in Africa that will supply raw goods.

        At this point I think the main thing holding hina back is that there’s such an amount of US weaponry in Taiwan that the assault would be a bloodbath – China would prevail but at what cost to China in both the domestic and international perceptions of the battle and it’s gaining little more than a ruined chunk of rock. China wants Taiwan’s potential, they don’t want a Detroit 2.0, I don’t see them making a physical move o the island until every other possible option’s been exhausted.

        Like

  26. JRyan says:

    I recall the China deal being pretty close to being done. Then came Joe Biden with his “China is not a threat comment.”… China backed off lol.

    China will lose the waiting game. The Trump administration only needs to outlast them. By election time 2020 China will be in critical condition. After Trump wins it, China is finished.

    Like

    • dallasdan says:

      Xi may be feeling that President Trump losing in 2020 is his last, best hope for avoiding an economic disaster. To take the deal the President is now offering is seemingly not an option for him.

      Like

  27. BruisedOrange says:

    So, from Xi’s vantage point, is the 10/21 Canada election China’s next-to-last opportunity to fight this war* on non-Sino turf? * https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/05/21/all-pretense-dropped-chairman-xi-calls-for-chinese-to-support-new-long-march-for-trade-war/

    If so, won’t they pull out all the stops to give Pelosi space to delay USMCA ’til after our election (their last opportunity to win this war on non-Sino turf)? What is China’s capability to manipulate the Canadian election?

    Gotta figure they’ll throw the cyber-kitchen sink at achieving such an important tactical delay. (Okay, I’ll say it: Yes, China’s intel assets will bring their “eh” game to win the Canadian election.)

    Like

  28. SHV says:

    “was supposed to start buying agricultural product now…no signs…”
    ****
    Is Xi still trying to leverage American Ag against PDJT despite Chinese Ag disasters?

    “China’s pig herd predicted to shrink by 50% due to swine fever” (CNBC)

    “BEIJING (Reuters) – Agriculture officials in northern China’s Shandong province warned on Tuesday that an infestation of the fall armyworm pest will spread further in the key corn-producing area, posing a “major threat” to autumn crop output in the region.

    Like

  29. dallasdan says:

    SD:
    “Commerce Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class when he said the current objective for Mnuchin and Lighthizer was to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.”

    I anticipate a short trip with much Chinese media wailing upon its conclusion.

    The President knows the Chinese will opt to wait and hope for his defeat in 2020.

    Like

  30. Perot Conservative says:

    And China hasn’t bought the ag products like they promised.

    Why the holdup on the Japan deal? Aren’t their elections over?

    Like

    • GB Bari says:

      The US-Japan deal might present what some other unscrupulous Asian countries see as another :back door” into the US market. President Trump and Abe want to withhold their deal – which probably prevents that “back door” – until the other Asian deals are all worked out and signed. That way no country can hedge and delay thinking they are going to get around US demands of fairness and reciprocity by going through Japan to the US.

      At least I think that’s what Sundance is implying.

      Like

      • Arrest Soros says:

        Japan is in the TPP is it not? Maybe the new US Japan deal violates the TPP on the Japan side.
        The Aust PM Morrison visits soon. I bet there will be talks about the TPP. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aust, Japan etc will need to adjust or withdraw from the TPP in order to do a deal with the US.

        Liked by 1 person

  31. jbrickley says:

    Make them an offer they cannot refuse… Trump has been swimming with the sharks since day one in NYC. Had to deal with dirty politicians, inspectors, unions, City red tape and of course the Mafia.

    Like

  32. scrap1ron says:

    The Chicoms and the Democrat Socialists are cut from the same cloth. Never trust any of them to keep their end of the bargain or allow them theirs with the promise of yours at a later date.

    Let them continue on their path to self destruction and starvation.

    Like

  33. Luke_Luck says:

    I see no reason for Pelosi to agree to ratify USMCA, whether Justin from Canada wins or loses. If she moves it forward, she hands Trump another win…and in an election year. What is her incentive to do that? How is NOT ratifying it worse?

    Like

    • Arrest Soros says:

      It’s not up to her, it’s up to the Chamber of Commerce. The CoC will need a deal as no deal is much worse for them.
      Now that the Mueller witch hunt is over, many hold outs (including the CoC) will move knowing PDJT is not going anywhere.

      Like

  34. jeans2nd says:

    If “the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize stock markets,” well, that is a losing proposition. China’s stock market is reportedly in free fall, and at the current rate of arrests China will run out of scapegoats sooner rather than later.

    Hong Kong is a total mess with Chinese gangs fighting innocence citizens on trains, and citizens fighting back with greater numbers than the gangs. The US Chamber of Commerce is nearing hissy fit level as Hong Kong continues to devolve.

    The people of China will continue to believe their Chinese Fake News propagandists for only so much longer. Word of the truth of China’s failing economy and the Hong Kong protests and violence is starting to filter in.

    SoKo and Japan had quite a fright last week when Russia/ChiCom bombers breached their air space. Japan’s Abe is seriously moving to beef up his “defense” forces, and change Japan’s Constitution.

    Pres Trump, once again, has Providence on his side.

    Like

  35. Pyrthroes says:

    October 21st it is… followed shortly thereafter by PM Boris Johnson’s likely “hard Brexit” from Brussels’ feckless dirigiste EU. Quite possibly, within these next three months, we’ll also see geopolitical tourniquets applied to hemorrhaging regimes in Caracas, Pyongyang, Teheran.

    Think Trump as Cap’n Jack, a dedicated if piratical force whose Caribbean encompasses the Wide World O’er. Fifty years from 2024, non-PCBS historians will have a field day explicating Fall 2019.

    Like

  36. val66 says:

    Hasn’t the deadline for automatic tariffs across ALL Chinese goods (those remaining & untariffed) already passed?

    Last time Trump raised tariffs, he threatened the remaining ~$300 billion would be tariffed at 25%? Did he not give a deadline regarding this?

    Like

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