Trump and Xi G20 Meeting Saturday – U.S. Position: “No Concessions” – Sad Panda…

Sometimes we just read and think; sometimes we just read and laugh. This is the latter.

China continually looks at President Trump and the U.S. trade position through the wrong prism. Those around Chairman Xi genuinely seem to be incapable of understanding a U.S. President who independently represents long-term U.S. larger interests, and simultaneously leverages the U.S. market as a customer in a one-sided transaction.

The disconnect in Beijing analysis of the dynamic is really quite something.

After last weeks strategic magnanimous panda maneuver, Beijing was shocked, shocked, that President Trump continued to maintain “wrong thinking” toward the upcoming discussion with Chairman Xi.

It appears China fully expected some reciprocal trade bargaining based on their implied promise to release North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un from manipulation; but Trump didn’t flinch.  Instead, of acquiescence to magnanimous panda, President Trump sends Chairman Kim a letter filled with “excellent content“. Beijing was snubbed.

So yesterday as a follow-up Beijing indicates a willingness to revisit the prior agreement by putting the face of Vice-Premier Liu He back into their negotiation position:

(Reuters) […] Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a phone conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement posted to its website on Tuesday morning. (more)

Liu He was the chief negotiator for Chairman Xi, and was stripped of the official title as spokesperson for the Xi regime after Beijing reneged on the deal.  The message was clear: during the three months of negotiations Liu He had agreed to too much structural change on China’s side of the trade confrontation.  The deal was scrapped by Beijing, and Liu He was stripped of his special envoy status as a person speaking for Chairman Xi.

By putting Liu back into the discussion this week, Beijing was signaling a willingness -likely a ruse, but a willingness nonetheless- to revisit the terms that existed prior to the breakdown.

The G20 is rapidly approaching… Beijing needs to identify POTUS Trump’s position.  Things in Beijing are urgent as preparations (mostly optics) for how Chairman Xi will engage with President Trump are needed.

So into this dynamic of China evaluating where they can expect to find their position, we’ve got two signals from a series of public messages: (1) magnanimous panda will give up DPRK nukes, in exchange for better terms; and when that didn’t get the desired result, (2) China signals they are willing to revisit the prior terms.

However, today Team Donald Trump responds to the messages:  NO DEAL !

Can you see what President Trump is doing here?

Trump is mirroring the historic approach deployed by China.  Beijing is facing a new dynamic where the U.S. President will not accept any retreat from his current position. This zero-sum outlook is exactly the same approach all Chinese negotiators use…. only this time it’s Trump using their strategy against them.  It’s President Trump who will not retreat from gained position.  This has to be seriously perplexing for Beijing.

Now, to be fair, unlike China President Trump is not constitutionally predisposed to never give ground… he’s a negotiator of reasonable compromise.  However, President Trump has modified his approach based on his knowledge of his adversary.

In essence, Donald Trump is mirroring the ideology and negotiating position of the person on the other side of the table….. only now, based on two-years of groundwork in preparation for his position, President Trump is carrying all the strength and leverage.

China is on its heels.  Trump has set up a dynamic where a pre-planned group of regional allies can easily compensate for any manufacturing deficit caused by Trump’s adversarial position toward China.   The corporate exodus visible within this plan has already begun.

The G20 is being held in Osaka, Japan.  Essentially President Trump’s home turf as expressed by his relationship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the recent high-honor of the first state visit to celebrate new Japanese Emperor Naruhito.

The geography for the G20 is perfect for this moment.  The dynamic of regional allies are all aligned with Trump as planned from the November 2017 ‘golden ticket‘ tour of Asia. Additionally, President Trump carries all of the economic leverage he was quietly assembling as Beijing underestimated and misinterpreted the Trump bravado.

At no time in history has a U.S. President ever had all of the consequential dynamics aligned in his favor.  This did not happen accidentally.

That’s why U.S. officials are saying they are not coming to the meeting with any concessions, and for the first time in modern history Beijing will have to make the compromise, or suffer a very visible set of consequences.

Quite remarkable.

Enjoy.

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This entry was posted in ASEAN, Auto Sector, Big Government, China, Communist, Decepticons, Donald Trump, Economy, G20, Hong Kong, Japan, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

204 Responses to Trump and Xi G20 Meeting Saturday – U.S. Position: “No Concessions” – Sad Panda…

  1. SHV says:

    I see comments on blogs that China hasn’t invested resources in ag and raw material infrastructure, however, when I looked up some production stats, that doesn’t seem to be true. China #1 Wheat and rice producer, #2 Corn; produces 1/2 worlds pork, #1 Steel, Aluminum, Coal, total electrical power, #1 hydro power, #6 crude oil and natural gas. Seems China’s major issue is not development of ag and natural resources but a population of 1.35 billion people especially in a country, where only 12.6% of the land is suitable for agriculture. (US currently 40% lower 48 is farmed. I guess the fact that China seems to be running close to max agriculture, raw material and energy production, they are extremely vulnerable to PDJT trade pressure and should be worried.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Newt Love says:

      Their pork is diseased, killing Chinese people:
      China’s pig disease outbreak pushes up global pork prices
      May 20, 2019
      https://apnews.com/a91a1792b8a54bbc8b8489ec13436015

      Liked by 2 people

      • SwampRatTerrier says:

        I don’t believe ANY STATS from Communist China!

        They’re bound to count, as Newt Love implies, tons of poisoned food stuffs unfit for human consumption.

        In the Sixties, since tonnage of steel production was a “status symbol” among nations at that time, Mao had peasants producing totally worthless steel in their own yards just so he could count it as an increase in the tonnage of steel produced.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Deb says:

      Their problem is not just 1.25 billion people, but the fact that their population is rapidly aging. They won’t have enough workers to support the older generation thanks to the one child policy.

      Liked by 3 people

      • SwampRatTerrier says:

        That’s exactly what Sundance pointed out in several posts about a year or so back.

        Another reason I guess why they planned their “One More Belt for the Road” – to literally enslave Africans as their laborers………..

        Like

    • Carrie2 says:

      I think of the A Team and soon saying “I love it when a plan works”.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Greg says:

      This from Rapture Ready I thought was interesting…(link at the bottom)
      Chinese farmers are also very perplexed over why 2019 has become such a disastrous year for food producers. While their weather has been normal, China faces a biological threat on three fronts:

      1. Some 30% of pig farms in mainland China are rumored to have been hit by African swine fever. China’s population of pigs will shrink by 134 million heads, which is equal to all the hogs raised in the US. Since China is the #1 consumer of pork, global hog prices may rise sharply as Beijing imports heavily to meet demand. Average prices may jump by 70% to record levels in the second half of 2019, according to Chinese forecasts.

      2. The fall armyworm, native to North America, was first detected in China five months ago after wreaking havoc in Africa over the past two years where it infested up to at least half of the continent’s crops. A United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report published at the end of April said the pest, which entered Yunnan province from the neighboring country of Myanmar, would spread to all of China’s grain producing regions within 12 months.

      3. China has confirmed an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N6 bird flu in Horgos in the far western Xinjiang region. The outbreak killed nearly half the birds raised by farmers in that city, according to a notice on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
      https://www.raptureready.com/category/nearing-midnight/

      Liked by 2 people

  2. SHV says:

    I see comments on blogs that China hasn’t invested resources in ag and raw material infrastructure, however, when I looked up some production stats, that doesn’t seem to be true. China #1 Wheat and rice producer, #2 Corn; produces 1/2 worlds pork, #1 Steel, Aluminum, Coal, total electrical power, #1 hydro power, #6 crude oil and natural gas. Seems China’s major issue is not development of ag and natural resources but a population of 1.35 billion people especially in a country, where only 12.6% of the land is suitable for agriculture. (US currently 40% lower 48 is farmed. I guess the fact that China seems to be running close to max agriculture, raw material and energy production, they are extremely vulnerable to PDJT trade pressure and should be worried.

    Liked by 2 people

    • SHV says:

      sorry, hit log in x2

      Like

      • A2 says:

        Never mind, everyone does so on occasion.

        I suspect you missed the plagues of Egyptian proportions hitting China’s agriculture from ASF destroying more pigs than the world stocks have, to the fall army worm munching its way through the grains to…..

        Liked by 1 person

        • SHV says:

          “I suspect you missed the plagues of Egyptian ….”
          ****
          No, I have been posting the “march” of the Fall Armyworm for awhile.:>) (From my reading, Chinese Corn crop is extremely vulnerable because it’s non-GMO and Chinese farmers don’t have ability to apply the necessary pesticides.)

          Not even sure what if any “point” I have other than I was somewhat surprised by these production data and that Chinese economy is more than labor for Taiwanese owned factories. It seems that they are close to max in Agricultural, natural resource, raw material production (ie. plastic, glass, chemical, synthetic rubber, etc.) I would think that would make them vulnerable to natural and economic ie. banking and trade “disasters”.

          Like

  3. Trent Telenko says:

    Sundance,

    You have missed that Pres. Trump is increasing pressure on China via renegotiating the US-Japan Defense Treaty.

    See:

    Trump Muses Privately About Ending Postwar Japan Defense Pact
    By Jennifer Jacobs
    June 24, 2019, 9:07 PM CDT Updated on June 25, 2019, 3:06 AM CDT
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-25/trump-muses-privately-about-ending-postwar-japan-defense-pact

    President Donald Trump has recently mused to confidants about withdrawing from a longstanding defense treaty with Japan, according to three people familiar with the matter, in his latest complaint about what he sees as unfair U.S. security pacts.

    Trump regards the accord as too one-sided because it promises U.S. aid if Japan is ever attacked, but doesn’t oblige Japan’s military to come to America’s defense, the people said. The treaty, signed more than 60 years ago, forms the foundation of the alliance between the countries that emerged from World War II.

    Basically, if China attacks Japan, the US must defend it.

    If China attacks the USA, Japan does not have to militarily support the USA.

    What happens to China if it knows that any set to with the USA over Taiwan automatically brings in Japan on the american side?

    Liked by 3 people

    • A2 says:

      See my comment on the first page. Bollocks.

      Like

    • relieveddeplorable says:

      Unfortunately part of the constitution that the US implemented in Japan post WWII was that the Japanese are only permitted to have a minuscule armed force, and that weapons can be used for defensive purposes only. I believe that is Article IX(not sure on article number). I’m sure we’d like to have Japan take a more active role in their defense, and I’m sure they’d like to, however their constitution in its current form doesn’t allow it.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. wxobserver says:

    FWIW, the only one not smiling in the photo above, and the only one standing with their head askew is….Xi. Maybe already not happy with the situation when that photo was taken?

    Liked by 2 people

  5. A2 says:

    Well, Russian State TV has pronounced that The G20 is all about them. High-fiving each other that “meeting with Putin is “Number 1” on his schedule and Trump dropped the freedom of illegally imprisoned Ukrainian sailors as a precondition to the meeting”.

    TV host Olga Skabeeva is a card.
    🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Like

  6. mr.piddles says:

    Candidate for presidential biography title: “President Donald J. Trump: The Art Of Kickin’ Ass”.

    Liked by 4 people

  7. Rob1 says:

    The title of this article makes me think of this South Park episode:

    Like

  8. Pyrthroes says:

    Speaking of PRC’s vulnerability to transformative “trade shocks” as post-Postwar globalist consortia begin to fray, then dissipate: Loss of manufacturing due to foreign firms’ unacceptably high risk of State expropriation (read, Grand Theft on Maoist/Stalin scales) is one thing, agricultural dependency (existential “food production”) is another.

    Due to Climate Deviants’ bizarrely effective agitprop from c. 1968, we virtually never hear that Earth’s benign interstadial remission called the Holocene Interglacial Epoch definitively ended in AD 1350 with strato-volcano eruptions precipitating a 500-year Little Ice Age (LIA) through AD 1850/1890, followed by a 140-year “amplitude compression” rebound through 2030.

    Entering a minimum 70+ year Grand Solar Minimum due to last through c. AD 2100, shortened growing-seasons allied with crop failures due to radically reduced Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) via a cyclically cooled “dead sun”, Hsi & Co. will find that China is ill-equipped to weather a period reminiscent of AD 1315 – ’25, the post-medieval “hunger years” that starved near 10% of global populations “while God slept”.

    One thing Central Planners never do is “plan” alternatives to inverse, anti-risk/reward incentives (the more you fail, the more power accrues to psychopathic gangs responsible). Oh, well… when Reality intrudes, “Too bad you have to die.”

    Liked by 3 people

  9. The Great Panda meets the Great Maga.

    Liked by 1 person

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