Stunning Canadian Trade Reversal Now Seems Increasingly Likely – Nervous Freeland/Trudeau Trying to Position for Political Face Saving…

During analysis of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement terms it became obvious that *if* Canada was going to join the pact they would have to almost completely acquiesce and reverse on their former positions.   It now is entirely plausible that just might happen.

When entering the meeting with U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Minister Chrystia Freeland spoke specifically about “Canadian workers”.  Justin from Canada has been very cautious in his word choices also speaking about “Canadian workers”.  As Freeland exited the first meeting with Lighthizer the reasoning for their collective word choice is becoming apparent.  Canada is preparing to take a knee, and they are positioning for the least amount of political damage possible.  WATCH the exit of first meeting:

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Team Trump has positioned this perfectly. By using NAFTA section 2202, to construct a modification of the original 1993 agreement, Lighthizer is intending to send a 90-day notification letter to congress informing them the U.S. and Mexico have agreed to modifications of their bilateral trade agreement.

This approach allowed Trump/Lighthizer to positioned Canada with a take it or leave it option.  If Canada didn’t accept, Lighthizer files a simultaneous section 2205 notification withdrawing the U.S. from a NAFTA partnership with Canada.  If Canada did accept Lighthizer adds them to the 2202 (modification) notification.

A 2205 withdrawal meant Canada and the U.S. would need to enter a bilateral trade deal entirely separate from the U.S-Mexico deal.  President Trump already publicly said what the terms of that bilateral would entail.  In the interim he would initiate a 25% tariff on Canadian made automobiles (massive leverage).

However, in order for Canada to accept or join, via 2202 modification, they would need to agree to the modification terms.  For Canada they would have to: drop their protectionist tariffs on the dairy sector, open their telecommunications and banking sectors and eliminate the subsidies on aeronautics and soft-wood Lumber sectors.   In essence open their economy to fair market competition and agree to intellectual property protections.

Canada had to choose between taking on Trump individually, a NAFTA withdrawal, or accepting the terms of modification.  The prism for Canadian decision-making is entirely about politics.  Justin and Chrystia have to make a political decision, or change their perspective and look at the economics.  Incredibly, it now appears Canada is going to accept the modification route.

 

This entry was posted in Auto Sector, Canada, Donald Trump, Economy, Legislation, media bias, NAFTA, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

432 Responses to Stunning Canadian Trade Reversal Now Seems Increasingly Likely – Nervous Freeland/Trudeau Trying to Position for Political Face Saving…

  1. Relieved Deplorable says:

    As this is a family site.. “Mess” with The Bull(caps on purpose), you get the horns.

    Liked by 5 people

    • Phil Bacon says:

      Too bad, so sad. Canada’s trade issues with the U.S. are much different than with Mexico.

      Friday deadline to cave? No way. JUstin from Canada has already cut the legs out from under Fresia.

      Accept ALL of the U.S. Mexican conditions or no deal. Won’t happen.

      Next, U.S. Canadian trade pact balances the relationship. Knashing of teeth in Ottawa.

      Liked by 2 people

      • G. Alistar says:

        Sadly, millions of honorable and hard working Canadians are led by an eye brow slipping wimp….Weak, Impotent, Malignant, pansy! Fix this next election.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Dave says:

          I’d love to “fix this”, but there are to many retards (lo-fo, I think, is the latest term) voters. And as an added bonus, our “conservative” party is only 1/2 notch right of the liberal party.
          But there might be a little light at the end of the tunnel. Maxime Bernier (Mad Max) just might be able to cobble together a much more conservative party. Unfortunately probably not soon enough for the next election. But here’s hoping.

          Like

          • Jan says:

            We conservatives in the U.S. always keep our fingers crossed for you guys along with our prayers. We are in no way out of the woods ourselves. Things can change much faster than you can imagine when your economy tanks and goes no where because your “leader” is telling you no way can candidate Trump do what he’s saying, …where’s his magic wand? Abracadabra, Canada, abracadabra!! Get out the vote!! conservatives here & in Canada, get out the vote!!

            Liked by 1 person

        • Steve says:

          Ha, Ha! Over here in Europe, all the papers are talking about how Trudeau is standing up to Trump and putting immense pressure on him! To paraphrase a British pol of days gone by, being attacked by Trudeau is like being savaged by a dead sheep.

          Liked by 1 person

  2. teeheeman says:

    Looks like Justin and Chrystia from Canada are folding like a cheap card table – what a hoot! Kudos to Sundance for nailing this scenario for a long time. I’ll tell my WI farming friends to get ready to crank up the dairy production! Next up is China who will soon be scroogied in the North American auto market. Beauty!!

    Liked by 11 people

    • helix35 says:

      “If you’ve got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.” TR

      Liked by 9 people

    • Suite D says:

      Canada pop.-38 million. USA pop. 325 million. What am I missing? Beauty, eh hoser. MAGA!!!

      Liked by 3 people

    • Paul Tibbets says:

      You nailed, every deal within Nafta is actually a deal that cuts out China, Trump is confronting China head on via v Mexico and Canada. Simply brilliant.

      Liked by 6 people

    • Robert Martin says:

      There are not enough milk drinking to save the American dairy industry. The sad fact is the Canadian dairy farmers are being propted up and should the rules change both the Canadian and American farmers will be on a down slope to tougher times and government hand outs to survive. The real issue here is that President Trump is twice as smart as Obama and three times as smart as Trudeau. There is no way for the Canadians to win the battle after Trudeau slagged President Trump before the 2016 election. Pay back is a bitch but you could see it for miles storming up the road.

      Like

  3. This idiot talks like my teenage daughter when she’s been busted and asked to explain herself.
    Thankfully my teenage daughter does not dress like a stripper pretending to be a businesswoman.

    Liked by 9 people

  4. Dallavise says:

    I was looking forward to taking Canada’s auto sector, but at least this way, there are no tenuous periods during the midterms and giving Congress a small window to really screw this up.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. sundance says:

    Liked by 8 people

  6. kea says:

    Drops an eyebrow

    She’s in black …. not purple… did someone tell her black is slimming or is she in mourning

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Doug Amos says:

    They are hiding it all behind the dairy tariff concessions and the media is dutifully papering the house with it. They have given Trump dairy, stood firm on all else and forced the USA & Mexico to let them on board. Justine and Freeland have barred the wolf from the door and registered a huge victory for Canada according to the media. The women keep screaming, the fools continue to nod in approval. Delusion rules; the media extolls.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. OSP says:

    This woman is SO out of her league. I was curious as to her educational background. Couldn’t find anything except BA from Harvard and that she was a Rhodes Scholar. Since she was a “journalist” for a time, I assume that’s what her Harvard degree is…and Bill Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar.

    WAY out of her league.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Your Tour Guide says:

      Rhodes scholar?

      Isn’t that a requirement to be in a future police line up?

      Liked by 1 person

    • dagnyshrug says:

      Bill Clinton never finished the program. Seems he fled Oxford early due to rape allegations. Imagine that.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Gary Morton says:

      She fits right in with Justin, representing Toronto’s gay community near Yorkville Toronto. Freeland was a US prestitute media person too and wrote for the Washington Post. Totally disconnected from the average Canadian. She is much like a US democrat. Think of it like trying to renegotiate a trade deal with Nancy Pelosi.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. scott467 says:

    “Canada is preparing to take a knee, and they are positioning for the least amount of political damage possible.”

    _________________

    No problem, they are well practiced at taking the knee and licking the boot.

    They do it for the queen all the time.

    Liked by 3 people

    • rbrtsmth says:

      ” I’d like to speak directly to Canada’s American friends and to my own many American friends who are here in this room.

      Let me begin by simply saying:

      Thank you. For the past 70 years and more, America has been the leader of the free world. We Canadians have been proud to stand at your side and to have your back. As your closest friend, ally, and neighbor, we also understand that many Americans today are no longer certain that the rules-based international order of which you were the principal architect and for which you did write the biggest checks still benefits America.

      We see this most plainly in the U.S. administration’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imposed under the 232 national security provision. We share the world’s longest undefended border.

      Our soldiers have fought and died alongside yours.

      The idea that we could pose a national security threat to you is more than absurd, it’s hurtful. The 232 tariffs introduced by the U.S. are illegal under WTO and NAFTA rules. They are protectionism pure and simple. They are not a response to unfair actions by other countries that put American industry at a disadvantage. They are a naked example of the United States putting its thumb on the scale in violation of the very rules it helped to write. Canada has no choice but to retaliate with a measured, perfectly reciprocal, dollar for dollar response. And we will do so. We act in close collaboration with our like-minded partners in the EU and Mexico.

      They too share our astonishment and our resolve.

      No one will benefit. The price will be paid in part by American consumers and American businesses. And the price will also be paid by those who believe that a rules-based system is worth preserving.

      Since the end of the Second World War, we have built a system that championed freedom and democracy and prevented regional conflicts from turning into total war. Canada for one is going to stand up in defense of that system. We will not escalate and we will not back down.

      We remember a time when the U.S. believed great international projects like the Marshall Plan or the reconstruction of Japan were the path to lasting peace. When America believed that its security and prosperity were bolstered by the prosperity of other nations. Indeed, that America could only be safe and prosperous when its allies were too. This vision, the greatest generation’s vision, was crucially dependent on the rules-based international order and the postwar institutions built to maintain it. It was based upon the willingness of all, especially the strongest, to play by the rules and be bound by them. It depended on the greatest countries of the world giving up collectively on the idea that might made right.

      It is reasonable to ask whether our grandparents’ hard-won wisdom still applies today. I am certain that it does.

      After the devastation of the Second World War, the U.S. was the unquestioned colossus, accounting alone for half the world’s economy. Today, the U.S. economy stands at just a quarter of the world. Together, the EU, Canada, and Japan, your allies in the G-7 and beyond, account for just a little bit more. China, meanwhile, produces nearly 20 percent of the world’s GDP. In our lifetimes, its economy is set to become the world’s largest.

      That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

      Americans, Canadians, and Europeans are much richer and healthier, and live longer than our grandparents did. The rise of the rest has been a chapter in the story of our own increased prosperity. It’s only natural that the 85 percent of people who live outside the industrialized West should over time account for a greater and growing share of the world’s wealth. But that shift leaves the world’s liberal democracies with a dilemma.

      How shall we behave in a world we no longer dominate?

      One answer is to give up on a rules-based international order.

      Canada could never thrive in such a world. But you in such a world may be tempted. That is your sovereign right. But allow me to make the case that America’s security amid the inexorable rise of the rest lies in doubling down on a renewed rules-based international order. It lies in working alongside traditional allies like Canada and alongside all the younger democracies around the world.

      From the Americas to Asia and Africa to the former Soviet Union who yearn to join us and who yearn for leadership, you may feel today that your size allows you to go mano a mano with your traditional adversaries and be guaranteed to win. But if history tells us one thing, it is that no one nation’s preeminence is eternal.

      The far wiser path and more enduring one is to hold the door open to new friends. To countries that have their own path such as Tunisia, Senegal, Mexico, Botswana, or Ukraine.

      To reform and renew the rules-based international order we have built together. And in so doing to require that all states, democratic or not, play by these common rules. This is the difficult truth. As the West’s relative might inevitably declines, now is the time that, more than ever, we must set aside the idea that might is right. Now is the time to plant our flag on the rule of law so that the rising powers are induced to play by these rules too.

      Let me remind you of the City on the Hill Ronald Reagan evoked in a farewell speech in 1989. It was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get there.

      This city open to trade, open to immigrants, speaks to Canada’s values too. Indeed, these are the values of liberal democracy. These values are under attack from outside our walls. Most corrosively, even inside the shining city some have begun to doubt them. My country, Canada, believes in these values. We are ready to defend them and the rules-based international order that unites all the world’s cities on a hill.

      Our friends in the world’s democracies in Europe, in Asia, in Africa, and here in the Americas are shoulder to shoulder with us. We all know we will be strongest with America in our ranks and, indeed, in the lead. Whatever this great country’s choice will turn out to be, let me be clear that Canada knows where it stands, and we will rise to this challenge.”

      Liked by 1 person

      • Dallavise says:

        You seem to be talking out of both sides of your mouth, or maybe just don’t know all of which you speak. The US gave the world such favorable trade deals after World War II mostly because it had to. It benefited the US, but moreso helped build up their allies and enemies alike. These were never meant to be long term, and it’s amazing they have stayed in place so long. Really only corporate and govt. greed kept it in place as they looked to exploit. Canada has ridden on the back of the US for so long, and free and fair trade should be easy to accept from big brother, but you’d rather cry that it’s unfair the US is taking your welfare check. Your moral high ground is a mirage that only the foolish will fall for.

        Liked by 7 people

      • scottmc37 says:

        I belief the security had to do with Canada importing Chinese steel and sending it to the US. In the event of a major issue with China, that steel could be removed from the market.

        That said, it was mostly a negotiating point IMO, Trudeau’s reaction was immature and showed either incompetence or bad judgment.

        Liked by 5 people

        • Garo. Vachtel says:

          They look like children compared to Trump. He didn’t make billions in the toughest
          market in the US by not having a commanding presence. He went from NY. to the World
          with a .big number who are supporting him. He knows he can not fail. You give a guy like Trump the keys to the kingdom and watch out.

          Liked by 1 person

      • scottmc37 says:

        Frankly Im concerned as a Canadian that Canada will end up paying for the wall through the auto industry moving to Mexico……..

        Like

        • rbrtsmth says:

          I don’t know about the other manufacturers, but I saw an interview with the Union Head for the Canadian auto workers (and other industries) and he said GM’s Canadian factories are already their most expensive.

          Liked by 1 person

        • dagnyshrug says:

          Canadians have been big hypocrites on immigration and the US Southern Border. In recent years more of these people have kept moving north, crossing into Canada illegally. I always laugh when I read the complaints. I think Canadians should pay something towards the wall, one way or another. It benefits them.

          Liked by 3 people

      • RJones says:

        Friends don’t demand economic favor for their own workers at the expense of ours. If you want to be friends, nobody will welcome you more than Americans. But, now it’s time to walk the walk.

        All the flowery talk about international rules-based order does nothing to diminish the now hollowed out center of our country, and while not wanting to diminish the service of brave Canadian soldiers, your sacrifices hardly compare to ours in any sense.

        So, behave like a true friend, and you will find a great and true friend in America. Spite us, like your child leader Trudeau has done, and you will find us rather indifferent.

        Liked by 12 people

        • G. Alistar says:

          Since WW2 many countries have been able to go heavy on butter and light on guns. US military and taxpayers have enabled Canada to go to three combat brigade and three garrison brigades. Saving $ billions for Canadians. All the POTUS wants is an even playing field….no question he will keep US Armed Forces strong. An even playing field for business and workers.

          Liked by 5 people

      • Is your posting a paraphrase of Freeland’s? It does seem reminiscent. It doesn’t seem like these would be your positions.
        “And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get there”
        IOW open borders and we will all live together in harmony weaving garlands of flowers.

        Liked by 4 people

      • formerdem says:

        The essay is an appeal to grandiosity and I guess that is what you think of us. But actually, you’re talking to people with burns. Doesn’t look as though you know that.

        Like

      • Louis Genevie says:

        You will not convince Americans to provide Canada with anything but a fair and equitable trade deal by pointing to unnamed ‘rules’ created decades ago. And your emotional appeal to fighting alongside us or ‘having our backs’ is absurd. We cover the backs of most of the free world, including yours and the trade situation has nothing to do with our mutual defense. What it does have to do with is the jobs that Canada has taken and continues to take from Americans because of your protectionist trade policies. And then, having saddled Americans with your 300% tariffs on dairy products, and other protections to for various industries, including banking, you claim America is being protectionist when it responds to Canada’s policies with protections of its own. This will never work to convince us that you somehow deserve a better deal than anyone else, putting aside the fact that Mexico will not stand for it. So man up, my friend, realize that the party America sponsored for many decades is over and it is time to stand on your own two feet. Join the Fair and equitable US-Mexican trade deal or lose your auto industry. Take your time, you have until end of business on Friday.

        Like

  10. MSO says:

    Barack Obama and PurpleSocks have discovered the power of Trump’s Magic Wand.

    Liked by 5 people

  11. Edwin Santiago says:

    Sonofabee, Trump is pulling it off!

    Like

  12. Texian says:

    The classic lefty “alpha display” technique – make a lot of noise, talk a big act, boisterous behavior etc. with hopes their adversary caves without even fighting back..

    But stand your ground, call their bluff – and look what happens..

    Sir Trump and his cabinet members are what are called ALPHA MALES..

    They stand their ground..

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Pyrthroes says:

    New day, new dawn. Precisely on the requisite 72-year schedule, the post-WW II era of Uncle Sugar caving to a bunch of freeloading collectivist Rats is guttering to a close.

    One man, and one alone, is goosing this economic Big Hog from back-alley mothballs to rampin’, ruttin’ Easy Rider gloire. All wholly unforeseeable… but there ’tis. Pork-ignorant, terminally obtuse Millennials having written themselves off, those coming-of-age through 2024 will foster a Generation Gap not seen since Dickens’ “Tale of Two Cities” and its Rule Britannia aftermath.

    Like

  14. Laurie says:

    As a concerned Canadian I’m relieved to hear Trudeau appears to be coming to his senses. I’ve long been concerned about the rise of China’s economic and military strength. I want the USA to keep their status as the number one super power in the world because If China were ever to gain that position it would be a disaster for everyone. All the democratic countries of the world with free economies and human rights should be standing together and know who their friends are. I have tremendous respect for Trump because he is defeating globalism and strengthening nationalism. His policies are working and he has the resolve to carry them out in spite of intense opposition. He really is winning and it isn’t just the USA that benefits from this but then entire free world benefits in spite of many who are too dumb to see it. Trump is winning over the naysayers because his ideas are working and because he just won’t quit.

    Liked by 6 people

  15. Gary Morton says:

    Non of Trudeau/Freeland’s former positions were any good for Canadians. Trump’s nuts and bolts auto provisions and the rest are actually best, meaning the person who negotiated for Canada was Trump.
    Freeland spent her time opposing wage increases for Mexicans, talking about climate change and aboriginals.
    Canada does not need a socialist dairy cartel, so keeping that is not good for Canadians either.

    Liked by 5 people

    • Exurban says:

      All true. Trudeau/Freeland and the Liberal Party represent a clique of interests that only serve themselves. Their “loss” in negotiations is not at all necessarily a loss for working Canadians.

      Liked by 2 people

  16. ATheoK says:

    Princess barney pants is already wearing black for mourning…

    Except, Justin and Chrystia are both devious miscreants that believe their hooliganistic antics are leftist approved and will bring Trump under their collective thumbs, or whatever they call their opposable digits.

    1) Their pretense at caving. Which is why princess barney pants wore black.
    2) They will introduce ‘points’ that they will not back down from in negotiations. This will occur later in the week, after chrystia makes a number of false announcements to the press, about USA agreeing to Canada’s terms.

    3) Two likely Trump responses.
    a) Trump or U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer cancels the negotiations, sends the wicked packing and initiates NAFTA section 2205 immediately.
    b) Trump releases a live video of chrystia ranting, publishes a transcription of Canada’s demands and immediately invokes tariffs on USA importing Canadian automobiles.

    That b) option will cause the most damage to Justin’s government employment future, as it will be very obvious Canada failed to negotiate in “Good Faith”.
    chrystia goes on to a career selling insurance or real estate, while raising hordes of cats.

    Liked by 4 people

  17. GW says:

    In the video she looked and sounded like Elaine Benis.
    How did an idiot like her get to that position ???

    Like

  18. Jack Rail says:

    Justin, my boy, you should have followed your first instinct and jumped aboard the Trump Train. You’re just looking all egg-plastered about now from trying to impress your Lefty friends by playing tough. You’re not tough and they know it. Before they knew it, Donald Trump knew it. The American Left never did know it and still doesn’t know it, but the American Left is unwontedly Harfish. Ignore them. So long as DJT’s around, the American Left will always be found in the outhouse playing with themselves amidst their own stink.

    Like

  19. swampfox999 says:

    If Canada is out, the name of the new agreement should be Trade Reciprocity for US and Mexico Pact. TRUMP

    Like

  20. swampfox999 says:

    If Canada is out, the name of the new agreement should be Trade Reciprocity for US and Mexico Pact. TRUMP

    Like

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