The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advanced estimate and the result is a 4.8% decline in economic activity. [BEA Here]

The revised fourth quarter GDP shows the economy was growing at 2.1 percent prior to the COVID-19 shutdown.  The severity of the change in GDP reflects a severe drop in consumer spending, essentially bringing the economy to a halt in March as the entire nation went into lock-down.  As the BEA explains:

The decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending.

The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. (more)

Digging down into the details the data shows what we all have seen.  There is some specific data that is noteworthy in the tables.

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Kevin Hassett, senior advisor to President Trump, says we’re going to see unemployment rates similar to what we saw during the Great Depression, but the White House has a plan for an economic comeback.  As Hasset notes: due to various relief programs the overall worker income is still consistent, but outputs from income are non-existent.

In this interview with CNBC Hassett estimates the current unemployment rate at 16 to 17 percent; & the likely result of the second quarter GDP around -20 to -30 percent. Hassett notes the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has several challenges as they attempt to quantify economic activity during the shut-down.  However, those are stunning numbers.

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With the economy at a halt, and unemployment skyrocketing while various Wuhan Virus mitigation efforts are underway, President Trump has announced his intent to suspend all immigration.  We’re closed:

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In the background of lessons being learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, stay tuned for a new MAGA-minded small farm program in the agricultural industry similar in construct to how President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin created the parallel banking system using community banks and credit unions.  Domestic food security is national security.

Today President Trump and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue revealed a $19 billion U.S. farm relief program which includes the Dept. of Agriculture purchasing $3 billion in farm products from the fresh supply chain to support those impacted by the collapse of the restaurant, hotel, school and cafeteria demand (food away from home).   WATCH:

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If you’ve been following our outlines on the food supply-chain issues, you’ll be well aware of what is causing the current farm crisis. {Go Deep} Secretary Perdue is stepping in to mitigate that impact and provide relief to farmers severely impacted by the supply chain disruption.

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The U.S. economy will reopen sooner rather than later specifically because of non-discussed issues in the total U.S. food supply chain.  While government officials have to be very careful in public comments, AG Secretary Sonny Perdue hinted toward the issue today during his remarks at the coronavirus task force briefing.  WATCH:

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The issue is slightly complex; and with two months of manufactured food supply-chain stress; it is now becoming increasingly important to re-open consumer access to the fresh-food side of the aggregate supply chain (ie. restaurants, cafe’s, and food away from home).

Most Americans were not aware food consumption in the U.S. was a 55/45 proposition. Approximately 55% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 45% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the administration plans to re-open the U.S. economy.  Something is going to need to happen prior to May 1st, or the long-term economic challenge is going to be much more difficult.

Kudlow again notes a ‘bring back manufacturing’ proposal with 100% tax deduction (expensing) for U.S. manufacturers to relocate their manufacturing supply chains out of China and back to the U.S.  The Beijing lobbyists would go bananas.

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•Phase One was retail. •Phase two was distribution. •Phase three was the space between processing/manufacturing and distribution. •Phase four was raw material supply to manufacturing. •Phase five is consumer packaging capacity, and bulk storage inventories.

Most Americans were not aware food consumption in the U.S. was a 60/40 proposition. Approximately 60% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 40% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

Food ‘outside the home’ included: restaurants, fast-food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more. Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 60 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.

The ‘food away from home‘ sector has its own supply chain. Very few restaurants and venues (cited above) purchase food products from retail grocery outlets. As a result of the coronavirus mitigation effort the ‘food away from home’ sector has been reduced by 75% of daily food delivery operations. However, people still need to eat. That means retail food outlets, grocers, are seeing sales increases of 25 to 50 percent, depending on the area.

♦ Phase Five – The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality. As Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue recently noted “there are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products.”

Here is a snapshot of the food we had in storage at the end of February: over 302 million pounds of frozen butter; 1.36 billion pounds of frozen cheese; 925 million pounds of frozen chicken; over 1 billion pounds of frozen fruit; nearly 2.04 billion pounds of frozen vegetables; 491 million pounds of frozen beef; and nearly 662 million pounds of frozen pork.

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Sketchy Nikki Haley endorsed Sketchy Kelly Loeffler right before Loeffler’s insider trading schemes surfaced.  Given the fact that Haley and Loeffler are both ‘Big Club’ insiders; and considering the extremes Ms. Haley is going through to retain her mask; there is a dose of karmic comedy as we watch sketchy Ms. Loeffler slowly implode.

The latest polling shows Representative Doug Collins is now crushing the corrupt and sketchy Big-Club-appointed Senator Loeffler by 23 points.  Under increasing scrutiny for her insider Wall Street schemes; and in a futile attempt to save herself; Loeffler now promises to liquidate all her stock holdings:

WASHINGTON DC – Sen. Kelly Loeffler plans to liquidate all of her individual stock holdings after weeks of political firestorm over trades made amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Loeffler (R-Ga.), who was sworn into the Senate in January after her appointment to fill a vacant seat and is on the ballot in a special election this November, has been criticized heavily by Democrats and her Republican opponent in recent weeks for stock trades made in the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak.

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Two topics of interest to average people appear in headlines.  The first is a report the food manufacturing industry might run out of PPE; the second is a remarkable shift by WalMart for shoppers in a new response to COVID-19.

First, there’s a hyped-up report about the food manufacturing industry possibly facing a shortage of gloves and masks as the nationwide PPE shortage continues. [SEE HERE]

However, there is nothing to be alarmed about in that report.

“I want to assure you that our food supply chain is sound,” Sonny Perdue, the secretary of agriculture, said on March 20.

That, however, could change if the people who make, package and deliver food lack personal protective equipment, or PPE, including face masks and gloves, according to the internal document shared with Yahoo News. (Link)

The three common PPE needs in food processing are: (1) hair restraints; (2) masks, and (3) gloves.  All food manufacturing and processing is regulated and inspected by the FDA and USDA.  The issues of mask and glove shortages are not critical within the industry.  Under the current National Emergency guidelines the USDA can modify regulations to keep the food supply-chain flowing without any health risk at all.

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Suffice to say 3M CEO Mike Roman will not be sending a Christmas card to the White House this year.  White House manufacturing advisor, and policy lead for the execution of the Defense Production Act, Peter Navarro, tells 3M to stop with the PC excuses and just do their damned job….  Perfect.

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