The headline is the reality of the thing.

Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place.  However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place.

CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move.

The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.

The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade.

All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches. (SOURCE)

Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage.  Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue.  However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked.  China takes the biggest hit, again.

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President Donald Trump joins Maria Bartiromo on ‘Sunday Morning Futures’ to detail the Strait of Hormuz blockade, warn Iran on nuclear weapons, outline next U.S. military and economic steps after failed peace talks.

President Trump expands on the details of Operation Epic Fury as well as the ceasefire negotiations which have hit the impasse created by Iran’s demand to continue developing a nuclear weapon.  WATCH:

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Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.

What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing.  I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.

Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?

Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!

So, what’s different?  Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism.  For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.

As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find.  In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS.  Great Britain is almost out of fuel.

That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.

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I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

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Vice President JD Vance speaks briefly to the assembled press pool in Pakistan following 21 hours of negotiations with interim Iranian officials.

Vice President Vance notes that no deal was reached and that is fundamentally “bad news for Iran.”  Within the brief remarks and responses to questions, Vance notes Iran “has chosen, not to accept our terms.”  The VP then outlined the core goal is for an agreement not to develop a nuclear weapon, and the Iranian delegation are unwilling to accept terms that stop them from achieving nuclear weapon capabilities.  WATCH:

President Trump is scheduled to give a live interview with Maria Bartiromo at 10:00am ET on Fox News.  Obviously, this will be the substantive issue President Trump will likely discuss.

With tensions still high and no clear next steps, Iran’s refusal to accept terms without nuclear missile development raises serious questions about the future of the conflict.

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President Trump is back, making the ‘red tie’ Chopper Pressers great again.

As President Donald Trump departs the White House for Miami, he pauses to deliver remarks on the ongoing Iran negotiations taking place in Pakistan and debunks the insufferable media narratives surrounding the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz.  WATCH:

…. “Let me just tell you, we win!  No matter what!  We’ve defeated their military; they have no navy. 158 ships are under water, they’re under the sea.  All of their mine sweepers; all of their mine droppers.  Can you imagine, a country has 28 mine droppers, you think that’s nice?  With all of that being said, they’re all defeated by the way, they’re all at the bottom of the sea; now, with all of that – They have no Navy; they have no radar; they have no Airforce, their leaders are all dead, Khamanei is gone, for many years – he ruled, he’s gone. With all of that, let’s see what happens, but from my standpoint I don’t care. Thank You!”…

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As Vice President JD Vance and the U.S. negotiating team meet with interim, hopefully ‘governing’, Iranian officials in Pakistan, the U.S. Navy and military have entered the Strait of Hormuz.

First, the announcement from President Donald Trump:

“The Fake News Media has lost total credibility, not that they had any to begin with. Because of their massive Trump Derangement Syndrome (Sometimes referred to as TDS!), they love saying that Iran is “winning” when, in fact, everyone knows that they are LOSING, and LOSING BIG!

Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft apparatus is nonexistent, Radar is dead, their Missile and Drone Factories have been largely obliterated along with the Missiles and Drones themselves and, most importantly, their longtime “Leaders” are no longer with us, praise be to Allah!

The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may “bunk” into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea. We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves.

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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at Joint Base Andrews before boarding Air Force One en route to Virginia. President Trump delivered remarks on upcoming US–Iran peace negotiations led by JD Vance in Pakistan. WATCH:

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A significant data-point to keep an eye on is whether there will be an extension to the suspension of sanctions against Russian energy products (oil and LNG) for the global market.

The current sanctions relief measures are scheduled to expire on April 11th, tomorrow.

April 9 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev ​is currently in the U.S. and ‌is meeting members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace ​deal for Ukraine and U.S.-Russia economic ​cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit ⁠told Reuters.

The visit comes before the ​U.S. decision on whether to extend ​sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda.

The United ​States issued a 30-day waiver for countries ​to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products currently ‌stranded ⁠at sea, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by ​Iran war.

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Susan Kokinda from Promethean Action gives her perspective on the negotiated ceasefire with Iran.  Kokinda notes the key players were Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey (she missed China).

In a lesser reported part of the background, Chairman Xi Jinping summoned the Pakistani negotiators to Beijing prior to the terms of agreement with Trump.  The summoning happened right after Trump said he was going to target the full force of the U.S. military against Iranian infrastructure.

Why does that matter to China?  Belt and Road.  Beijing has built a railway from China into Iran for the transport of goods and raw materials (including energy products) out of Iran (sanctions avoidance) in exchange for shipments of weapons. If President Trump targeted the railway infrastructure, in combination with the oil shipments being hampered, ¹China would be in a very bad place.  Hence the summoning to get a ceasefire.

Focusing too narrowly on the British Empire as the source of all problems and you miss things.  Mrs Kokinda missed this:

[SOURCE]

¹China in a bad place due to the middle east in crisis, means China becomes more dependent on Russia for oil, gas and ultimately fuel.  Internally, Russia isn’t a big fan of their Chinese dependencies.

If FUBAR in Iran remained the statis, the two countries not in any crisis would be the USA and Russia, both with oil/gas and extra refining capacity.  The countries/regions in biggest crisis would be China, Europe and Southeast Asia.

The U.S. and Russia less affected.  China and the EU more affected.  A significant geopolitical paradigm shift, all things considered…. and it appears that Beijing saw it coming.

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