Joe Biden does not write his tweets, that is certain.  However, whoever is writing on his behalf sure has an odd way of promoting administration energy policy.

In a Tweet last night [link here] Joe Biden demands oil companies’ lower prices and increase production, or he will raise their taxes and increase regulation:

In essence, lower the prices and increase production or Joe Biden will increase the prices and lower production.  How does this make sense?

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CTH has covered the origin of food inflation since we first raised the alarms in the spring of 2020.  A confluence of events starting with the fracturing of the food supply chain (shutting down restaurants, hospitality venues, schools, cafeterias, etc), created the initial major problem.  Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sold at retail stores could not keep up with demand after 50% of the food supply system was shut down.

Within the U.S. retail food supply chain (350+ million people), manufacturing CPG products relies on a system of staying one to two harvest cycles ahead of demand.  However, when restaurants and fresh food venues were closed, very quickly frozen, bulk stored and siloed U.S. food storage systems, the storage needed for CPG products, were emptied.

Long after the time when all food distribution was reopened, the shortages of CPG products continued. You saw the result with empty shelves at the supermarket.  It takes a long time (years) for those inventories to refill.

We warned of this in 2020 and then followed the predictable outcome in 2021 and 2022.

When Joe Biden then shut down the U.S. energy production system in early 2021, the massive increases in energy costs -and the shortages of natural gas- became fuel on the inflationary fire of CPG goods.  Again, in October 2021 CTH noted that retail prices were going to rise quickly, and they did.

Throughout 2022 food prices have risen dramatically as the food distribution and processing system was now under pressure from all sides.  The shortage of inputs (to refill food storage and warehousing needs) combined with the much higher costs to generate those inputs -the direct result of the exploding energy costs- created massive inflation pressure.  The pricing result we are seeing now (third wave of food inflation) is exactly what we have stated, discussed and predicted for more than two years.

While all food costs are skyrocketing, the prices for manufactured or processed food are much higher than the price increases for fresh food.

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Will big tech and social media remove Joe Biden for violations of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation?  Considering his remarks today, they should.

Reading from a teleprompter loaded with lies about the economy, Joe Biden stunningly states that gas prices are lower today than when he took office. Further claiming that gasoline was $5/gal.  {Direct Rumble Link} Nothing about any of his economic claims is true.  WATCH (1 min):

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Allowing people to return to work after the pandemic lockdowns is not “creating jobs.”  And gasoline was not $5/gal when Joe Biden took office.

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The topline of a third-quarter GDP at +2.6% looks good [DATA HERE]. However, a look into the numbers shows alarm.  The domestic U.S. economy, as measured by Main Street creating goods and services for domestic consumption, contracted in the third quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation is a valuation of all goods and services created within the economy, minus the value of goods and services imported.  However, even a cursory look under the topline number shows how the import/export dynamic creates the illusion of economic growth.

In the third quarter we exported hundreds of billions worth of energy products, including massive liquified natural gas (LNG) sales to Europe, and oil sales to the global market from the strategic petroleum reserve.  We also sold billions in weapons to Europe. Those sales are calculated as exports, lifting the GDP number (Table 1).  At the same time, imports of durable goods into the United States collapsed; meaning less was deducted from the GDP.  The net import/export impact on the GDP dynamic was +2.77% (Table 2).

Meaning the third-quarter import/export dynamic alone contributed 2.7% growth to the percentage of change for the prior period.  However, the total GDP only rose 2.6%, because the actual economic value created domestically got smaller.  We made less internally, sold less internally and consumers purchased less internally.

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A lot of people didn’t like Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, I did.  Secretary Mnuchin was an inside player, a billionaire himself, who worked for the outside team.  He already had a full bank account and carried ‘f**k-off’ money.   That, combined with Wilbur Ross having the same ability, was exactly what we needed to execute the America-First MAGAnomic resurgence.

The U.S. middle-class saw and felt the benefits.  Economic security is national security, at a nationwide and even individual level.  Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer constructed that economic outcome guided by the larger strategy of President Donald J Trump.

RIYADH, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Former U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Wednesday he believed the United States was in a recession and said this would continue.

Speaking at Riyadh’s flagship investment conference FII, he said: “I think we’ll probably see a peak of 4.5% 10-year rates.”

“I think you are going to see inflation in the U.S. begin to come under control, it will probably be a two-year period,” he added.

He said the U.S. and China must learn to co-exist. He added that the Middle East’s economic issues need to be dealt with regionally. (link)

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As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

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NBC’s Mark Murray {Eyeroll} produces a midterm media poll {DATA HERE} to frame the 2022 election and claim a tight race for both Democrats and Republicans.  Despite collapsing economic numbers, widespread inflation and disapproval on every category, NBC finds the #1 issue for all voters is “The Threat to Democracy.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd gives the spin on the outcome:

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71% of the country say we are on the wrong track (20% approve).

57% of the country disapproves of the job Biden is doing with the economy (38% approve).

50% of the country says things will get worse (20% think will improve)….

…. But it’s a close election?…

…. And the #1 concern is “the threat to democracy?“

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The moves are so predictable… {See Here}… well, it would be funny if the consequences were not so severe.

With Prime Minister Liz Truss announcing her resignation there was considerable discussion of former PM Boris Johnson returning to run for the job.  However, as an outcome of his conversations with other “conservatives” in British politics, Johnson has withdrawn his name.  This sets up… wait for it…. the World Economic Forum’s groomed U.K. climate change “conservative” to take the job.  This stuff is so predictable, it’s beyond funny.

(Via CBS) – Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement Sunday that he would not seek the leadership of the Conservative Party, leaving former Treasury chief Rishi Sunak as the frontrunner to take over after Liz Truss hastily announced her exit last week, after just 45 days at the helm. (read more)

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak together with King Charles III….  What could possibly go wrong?  LOL

Sometimes people make fun of me for cementing my views in the reality of a big picture perspective.  I don’t care.  It’s not a conspiracy theory to see how the alignment of western leadership interests are shaped by the control of the people and institutions who manipulate the illusion of choice.

Liz Truss was dispatched because she dared, in the smallest way, to accept the reality of what created the ‘Build Back Better‘ U.K. economic crisis.  She was always going to be replaced by someone who was willing and able to retain their fullest devotion to the grand pretense.  That’s where Rishi Sunak steps in.  Please watch the video below, you’ll see:

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All around this western world of ours we find ourselves surrounded by economic pretenders and financial pundits, perhaps intentionally stuck, using old school economic theory to analyze a new era in government manipulation of the economy.  It’s maddening… but at least we do not need to pretend on these pages.

Milton Friedman was not wrong at the time he stated that inflation is driven by monetary policy.  Print money and the value of it diminishes; this is true.

However, we are in an era that Friedman never foresaw, nor could he fathom, where the structural policy of government is created to intentionally shrink economic activity.

Purposefully reducing energy resources and then purposefully reducing economic activity to match the diminished level of energy available, is the underlying purpose of what the western globalists call “Building Back Better.”   The claim of “climate change” is the justification for their action.  Too few people truly understand this, and as a result we see false arguments about the root of inflation being presented.

The ROOT CAUSE of modern western inflation is the intentional shortage of traditional energy resources (coal, oil, gas), which is driving up the price of the everything attached to the use of energy, everything.  It is a supply side causation with policymakers trying to forcibly shrink energy demand.   Quit making excuses in any other direction.

As energy products skyrocket, everything attached to the energy product rises in price – that is a supply side issue.  Yes, if you wish to be obtuse and support the justification from the policymakers, you can -if you chose to join the pretending- argue that demand for energy is the cause. However, demand for energy is far more consistent than the reductions in the supply that have been created.

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Last week we discussed the announcement of a $24.6 billion merger deal between Kroger and Albertsons supermarkets {Go Deep}.  The majority stockholders in both companies are institutional investment groups, Blackrock, Vanguard and Cerberus.

The merger would consolidate the second and third largest food retailers in the U.S. and would certainly dilute the competitive dynamic amid the supermarket industry.  Concern over price controls and decreased competition has now arrived on the desks of DC legislators who are reviewing the deal.

(Reuters) – […] U.S. Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar and Republican Senator Mike Lee were quick to say that they would hold a hearing to discuss the merger. A European interloper could make deal plans even harder.

Frans Muller, Chief Executive of Stop & Shop owner Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS), has made no secret of his desire to consolidate U.S. grocers. The Netherlands-based firm is already the fourth largest grocery chain. If it managed to cobble together a better offer than Kroger’s bid for Albertsons, it would become the second largest supermarket. Plane spotters tracked two Albertsons jets next to Ahold Delhaize’s U.S. base in Massachusetts in early August. Ahold declined to comment.

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