We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

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I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

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Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

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ABC/IPSOS are trying hard, very hard, to provide cover for Joe Biden. [IPSOS Release Here – pdf data Here]  However, even within what they call a “probability-based sample of pre-selected” Americans, aka “the knowledge panel“, the responses toward Joe Biden show a nationwide rejection of the White House occupant.

A heavily weighted sample of 28% support Biden’s efforts on inflation.  The rest of their pre-selected panel say he sucks.

Another weighted sample shows 36% think Biden is doing a good job on crime.  The rest of their pre-selected panel say no, Biden sucks.

(Via ABC) President Joe Biden is facing significant skepticism from the American public, with his job approval rating lagging across a range of major issues, including new lows for his handling of crime, gun violence and the economic recovery, a new ABC/Ipsos poll finds.

[…] More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) disapprove of how Biden is handling inflation (only 28% approve) while more than half (57%) disapprove of his handling of the economic recovery. 

[T]he survey also reveals weaknesses from Biden’s own party with only a slim majority of Democrats (54%) approving. Biden’s orbit is also hemorrhaging independent voters, with 71% disapproving of his handling of inflation.

[…] As the national murder rates see historic jumps, only a little more than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) approve of Biden’s handling of crime, down from 43% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll in late October. (read more)

The White House strategy to deny chaos created by their policies, and yet demanding that media report good things about Main Street collapsing, does not seem to be working.  Apparently, an overwhelming majority of Americans now believe what they see and feel for themselves.  (more…)

Several people have emailed asking for opinion on the Yahoo News article [READ HERE] outlining Ali Watkins as a victim of the horrible investigative apparatus that targets journalists who are involved in leaking and denying leaking, “Top Secret, Classified Information” from their narrative engineering positions.  {{Insert Eyeroll Here}}

Having read the lengthy article a few times, there are some interesting aspects and also a lot of nonsense in the grand scheme of things.  The motive for the article appears to be a defense against government investigating journalists, and a sub-sector of one of the intelligence agencies (Customs and Border Patrol) having a semi-rogue actor named Jeffrey Rambo. Ali Watkins was contacted by Rambo in 2017 based on his discovery of her connection to Senate Intelligence Committee Security Director James Wolfe.

You have to read the article [HERE] to see where the author, Jana Winter, is coming from.   Overall, the article is a little weird and defensive, and frames a position that secretive U.S. government agencies should not be conducting surveillance on U.S. journalists.   Much of the article is not too interesting to anyone who is not a journalist. However, there are a few parts worth noting. One paragraph specifically, which I’ll get to.

First… The author Mrs. Jana Winter and Ali Watkins are lying about a very key point.  Watkins claims James Wolfe never leaked any classified information to her, and Jana Winter makes that point repeatedly.  This is a lie, they are liars – [sue me].    James Wolfe did leak classified information to Ali Watkins, who was writing for Buzzfeed at the time, which Watkins then shared with her friends and peers in the media.   One specific classified leak was the Carter Page FISA application, which Wolfe leaked to Watkins in March of 2017.

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I’m only posting this brief video from Joe Biden’s statement yesterday as yet another example of how ideological Democrats espouse support for democracy yet take action to nullify democracy they don’t like.

When the majority of American people articulate positions leftists support, democrats call that democracy. However, when the majority of American people articulate positions that leftists do not support, democrats call that extremism.

When questioned about what Joe Biden would do if the Senate passed legislation to remove his vaccine mandate passes the house of representatives, the White House said Thursday Biden would veto the bill and ignore it.  Less than 24 hours later, Joe Biden was warning his audience about autocrats undermining democracy.

Nobody, and I mean n.o.b.o.d.y, ever calls out these people, specifically Democrats in leadership like Joe Biden for this hypocrisy.

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I would remind everyone of another example given by Joe Biden in September.

In this next semi-coherent 90 second soundbite; the content of which flies over the head of the provider, Politico; Joe Biden is telling the media about his conversations with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Biden says that both Xi and Putin are “autocrats” who dictate to the citizens of their nations, and in conversation with them – those leaders have questioned the viability of ‘western democracy‘ in an era where polarization of the electorate is so extreme.   Biden is calling them “autocrats” and trying to defend “democracy”…. ok, you with me? Now, WATCH:

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New York Governor, Comrade Kathy Hochul, delivered an order today mandating mask-wearing indoors throughout the state of New York.

You will take a knee, wrap your face and be compliant… or else.  It’s for your own good comrade citizen. WATCH:

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President Trump economic policy -vs- Joe Biden economic policy

When wages (blue line) are above inflation (red line) our income is growing, life is good and the working class has more disposable income to enjoy life.  However, when wages (blue line) are lower than inflation (red line) our income is shrinking, life is a struggle and the working class has less disposable income to enjoy life.

♦ Point One – Nothing happens accidentally. The road to a “service-driven economy” is paved with a great disparity between financial classes. The wealth gap is directly related to the inability of the middle class to thrive.

♦ Point Two – There is nothing of value behind the obtuse term “service-driven economy.” The multinationals are paying for this administration, just like they paid the Obama administration; paying for economic policy that advances their interests.  Congress goes along with the K-Street demands, because Wall Street is now the primary benefactor of legislative intent. Nothing about their effort is done with American interests in mind.

To go deep, keep reading.

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Two Democrats joined with Republicans yesterday in passing a bill that would eliminate any federal vaccine mandate.  It seems silly that Congress would have to pass a law saying the unlawful and unilateral act of the executive branch, which has been blocked by separate federal courts, is unlawful…. but that’s where we are.

Democrats Joe Manchin (West Va.) and Jon Tester (Montana) joined all the Republicans present in the 52-48 vote.  The bill now goes to the House, where it is going to be put on ice by Nancy Pelosi in order to save Joe Biden from an embarrassing rebuke of his overreach.  However, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki was asked today if the House were to vote on the bill, would Joe Biden veto it.

The White House spokesperson affirmed that Joe Biden would veto any bill, created by the representatives of the people, that declared his authority null. WATCH:

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Yesterday, Rachael Rollins was confirmed by the Senate as Joe Biden’s selection to be the U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts {LINK}.  Watch the former District Attorney Rachael Rollins previously respond to a local Boston media crew.

Watch what happened, and remember, this person is now the U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts:

https://youtu.be/5cfiCuKFVGc

The severe leftist disposition exhibited in that video was well known to the U.S. Senate prior to her confirmation hearings.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz highlighted and warned his peers about the danger that Mrs. Rollins’ worldview as district attorney represented if she was put into a position of significant authority.  Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton also gave numerous warnings and for a time blocked the nomination.

Alas, eventually the Senate approved of Mrs. Rollins despite all the warnings.   The Senate vote was a 50/50 tie.  No Republicans voted to support Rachael Rollins, and Kamala Harris stepped in to break the tie.

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