The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the First Quarter GDP figures today [DATA HERE] showing the U.S. economy contracted -1.4% in the first quarter.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the economy, minus the dollar value of goods and services we import. The percentages discussed are percentages of change over time.
The first quarter result was an annualized rate of negative 1.4 percent, meaning the U.S. economy is shrinking. However, this should not come as a surprise as the primary driver of our GDP is consumer spending. With everything costing more, less stuff is purchased. Less stuff purchased leads to less stuff generated.
While the first quarter result of -1.4% is not a surprise, in the commonsense perspective, the fact that BEA didn’t revise the fourth quarter result of +6.9% is a little eye opening. There’s no way in an apples-to-apples valuation the U.S. economy goes from +6.9% to -1.4% in one quarter. Instead, what we are seeing is the effect we mentioned when the Q4 result was announced. The BEA is modifying their assumptions by increasing the inflation rate in their calculations of the value of goods and services. They really didn’t have a choice.
You might remember my prior opinion that the Q4 numbers were very overinflated because of two factors: (1) they underestimated inflation; and (2) the December 2021 import data from the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) was missing [NOTE: remember, Buttigieg was there in November and POLA supervisors are on team Biden]. I said at the time that if my hunch was correct the first quarter 2022 import data would be magnified by the December POLA data being added. Remember, imports are a deduction to the GDP equation.
Well, what shows up in Q1? A massive increase in first quarter import data that surprised everyone. Go figure… lol.
Let’s look at the data
The 78-page 


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