I never quite understood just how controlled the information flow is inside Canada until about two years ago when we began closely monitoring Canadian positioning for the upcoming USMCA (CUSMA) renegotiation/cancellation.  It quickly became obvious the majority of Canadians have no idea why it is almost a certainty the U.S. would exit the trilateral arrangement and position for a bilateral free trade agreement.

In the two years that have passed, now we see a few Canadians starting to realize the core issues of trade conflict that make any FTA between the U.S. and Canada almost impossible.  The largest issue centers around Canada’s net-zero carbon legislation that now completely disconnects them from aligned North American energy policy between the U.S. and Mexico.

A trilateral agreement requires core alignment on industrial manufacturing, and that requires similar abilities & similar energy policy.  You cannot make steel, iron and aluminum without coal and gas.  You need joules for heavy industrial manufacturing that cannot be achieved without exploiting coal, gas or oil (carbon materials).  Canada’s energy policy no longer aligns with industrial manufacturing. This core issue cannot be resolved at the current level of energy policy in Canada.

There are other issues like Canadian trade deals with China, non-tariff barriers, legislated rules over intellectual property and other points of significant friction that make alignment within North America challenging. However, the energy component makes compatible trade impossible.

In the interview below, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra appears on a podcast with David Leis, for a blunt conversation about trade, pipelines, critical minerals, China, and why the U.S. is growing frustrated with Canada’s direction.  At the end Hoekstra even explains why he is doing Canadian podcasts; because information within Canada is restricted by the government control of media – and that explains why most Canadians are clueless about the issues.

I’ve prompted the interview to the point that gets into the details. If you are interested to be fully understanding of what is coming, this is a solid reference point. Also, if you have financial investments associated with Canada or any system that is connected to the economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada, you need to watch this interview to proactively defend your financial interests.  VIDEO PROMPTED:

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Watch it or listen to this roughly 30 minutes (prompted) as you cook, drive or go about your day. But listen to it and see the disconnect between Canada and the USA as outlined.  Things are going to get much worse in this relationship as the finality of it all suddenly starts to sink in north of the border with the average Canadian.

Additionally, there’s another short segment on U.S-Canadian trade as discussed by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently at a Council on Foreign Relations event.

QUESTION: “How serious is the fissures? Are the fissures with Canada, the rupture with Canada? And can you envisage USMCA being transformed into separate agreement with Mexico, separate agreement with Canada, or no agreement with Canada?”

USTR GREER: “Well, I would say that, you know, the team right now is in Mexico. My team, and they’re negotiating with Mexico on a bilateral basis. I speak with some regularity to my Canadian counterparts.

Our sense is that we have with Canada, you know, some some trade challenges, which, you know, to some people, you know, some people may think, oh, those are just irritants to us. They’re, they’re significant, and the reality is, we’ve spent the past year and a half going to countries, telling them we have to have some level of tariff on the globe to deal with this giant death that we’re dealing with, to try to reshore, etc.

And, and most countries have, you know, I know grudgingly, but they said we understand your policy, we understand so we’re going to negotiate with you, we’re going to remove some of these tariffs and non tariff barriers, etc. Canada’s approach has been different.

They like China retaliated against the United States. Two countries in the world retaliated against us, People’s Republic of China and Canada, so they’re just, they’re just in a different spot, and it’s, it’s hard to see necessarily where that ends.”

VIDEO PROMPTED: