Several people have made queries about the current state of our national economic condition against the backdrop of disconnected data points that seemingly conflict. Here’s my review.
July and August are key months to gauge the prior six months of U.S consumer positioning.
Why?
Because all advance purchase orders for the U.S. holiday season are made in May, June and July for inventory builds and delivery schedules for September. The decisions made by purchasing officers in late spring and early summer, reflect their predictive analysis for the holiday season.
Inventories are evaluated, critical financial discussions are held, and orders are placed for September arrival and distribution. This predictive activity is what we see in the July and August data that flows from the global, multinational and shipping corporations who facilitate the transfer of the goods. Check what is happening in distribution, and you can see what eventually creates the boxcar effect in the supply chain that ultimately leads to shuttered manufacturing.
Those who are involved in the business of shipping goods are signaling the flares around the state of the consumer economy and what will happen. At the same time, the wording is almost hilarious in this era of great pretending. Instead of saying ordinary words like “poor sales results for durable goods,” the parseltongue calls sales, “destocking.” Example: “CEO Vincent Clerc said he saw no sign that the destocking which has curbed global trade activity would end this year.”
Global shipping company Maersk is warning that shipping volume is low because warehouse inventories are high. The goods are unsold.
(Reuters) – […] CEO Vincent Clerc said he saw no sign that the destocking which has curbed global trade activity would end this year.
“We had expected customers to draw down inventories around the middle of the year, but so far we see no signs of that happening. It may happen at the beginning of next year,” Clerc said at a media briefing. “Consequently, the uptick in volumes we had expected in the second half of the year has not occurred,” he said. (read more)
The lack of shipping leads to a review of inventory status for the warehouses who would receive the goods.
Bulging Warehouses – […] A review of corporate statements and briefings shows more than 30 U.S. and European companies, including Hugo Boss, Heineken and A.P. Moller-Maersk, 3M Co and Stanley Black & Decker complained that destocking hurt their second-quarter performance.
Retailers particularly have struggled with stocks of clothing and footwear as consumers splurge on holidays rather than goods as they did during pandemic lockdowns.
The downbeat outlook comes amid low expectations for second-quarter results as China’s post-pandemic recovery slows. Refinitiv I/B/E/S data shows U.S. and European companies are expected to report their worst quarterly results in years.
Companies which stockpiled last year are finding it harder to shed inventories when higher borrowing costs and inflation crimp consumer demand, corporate executives and analysts said.
In the euro zone, stocks of finished products hit records in August last year and destocking only started in May, based on latest euro-zone manufacturing data.
In the U.S., an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics by CFRA Research showed business inventories soared by 20% in mid-2022, the biggest jump on record based on data that goes back to 1993. Retailers led the trend – raising inventories by a quarter from a year earlier.
The date in this next paragraph is key:
[…] The U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.4 in May, up from 1.33 a year ago, which means retailers, manufacturers and wholesalers have more inventory than they can sell at a higher rate than a year ago. (link)
When purchase order decisions for the holiday season of 2023 were being made, the inventory levels were higher than 2022. This is KPI (Key Performance Indicator) data, because the holiday of 2022 was a total mess.
Holiday sales last year were exceptionally weak as wage earners were struggling to pay for higher prices in essential goods and services, fuel, oil, heating, energy, gasoline, food and shelter. The lack of consumer purchasing for non-essential goods and/or luxury items resulted in poor sales last year, and the inventory levels are actually higher this year than last year when this year’s purchasing decisions were being made. That reality drops purchase orders. The dropped purchase orders lead to Maersk saying they are shipping less goods.
Now, let’s get USA domestic…. because it’s all connected. For that let’s turn to the U.S. Postal Service:
USPS DATA – First-Class Mail revenue increased $221 million, or 4.0 percent, on a volume decline of 678 million pieces, or 5.9 percent, compared to the same quarter last year. Shipping and Packages revenue remained relatively flat while volume declined 41 million pieces, or 2.4 percent, compared to the same quarter last year.
Marketing Mail revenue decreased $333 million, or 8.8 percent, on a volume decline of 2.6 billion pieces, or 16.0 percent, compared to the same quarter last year. The Marketing Mail decreases were driven by the continued decline in advertising spending due to economic pressures experienced throughout most of the fiscal year, a higher inflationary environment affecting print media production costs. (link)
So, let’s put it all together….
Consumers did not buy stuff. As a result, spring inventories were high. Purchasing managers forecast weak sales. Summer purchase orders were very low. Shipping companies reflect declines in shipping because the purchase orders were low. Advertising and marketing budgets were cut to meet the decrease in consumer spending. Consumers are not forecast to spend this holiday season.
The economic pie is getting smaller.
Keep in mind, this is all intentional. This is all part of the outcome from “managing the transition” to a new energy economy.
As you are well aware the various western nation central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are raising interest rates into a global economic contraction, a drop in demand. Raising interest rates into a contracting economy is counterintuitive, it runs against the expressed interest of government to grow economic conditions. However, there is a purposeful design to the contradiction. [A TLDR Version Here]
The central bankers are trying to support western government policy. Unfortunately, the government policy they are under obligation to support is the fundamental energy shift, or what the World Economic Forum (Davos Group) has called the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda.
Monetary policy can only impact one side of the inflation challenge. The western bankers (EU central bank, U.S. federal reserve bank, and various banking groups) are raising interest rates in order to “tame inflation” by “taming demand.” However, as you know the global economic demand has been declining for several quarters. Raising interest rates into an already contracting economy only does one thing, it speeds up the rate of economic contraction.
Economic contraction is the lowering of economic activity. Raise interest rates -in a general sense- and businesses invest less, borrowers borrow less, consumers purchase less, employers expand less, and the economy overall slows down. When the economy turns negative, meaning less products and services are produced, we enter a recession. Some businesses and employers do not survive a recession and subsequently unemployment rises.
During recessionary periods people buy less stuff, people have less income stability, and economic activity drops. When the banks raise interest rates into an economy that is already stalled or contracting, unemployment and general pain on Main Street increases. Workers are laid-off, incomes shrink, consumer spending drops and that leads to less employment. Recessions are bad for middle-class and working-class people.
However, that said, there is one benefit from a recession…. Energy use drops.
Black Rock is making money somehow
I do some work for a major company who keeps raising their pricing
I asked why and was told they have to keep their stock price up for their shareholders
Too bad we don’t qualify to be “stakeholders.” I’m sure they’d lower prices for us…
Russia economy explained.
Bruzed Orange: We are bagholders.
I would like to be a steak holder but beef is a bit too pricey unless Kroger corp runs a good sale on it for a holiday event.
Even then, Kroger makes you buy the whole cut @ about 100 bucks to get that kinda deal.
I miss President Trump more and more everyday. Just imagine how strong this country would be right now…
FJB tearing this country down, one policy at a time. He started with energy which of course would have disastrous affects on everything else.
In Scotland they cut down 16.5 million trees to build windmills. The sheer insanity of that is incomprehensible.
just wait ’til they cut down another 16.5 million trees just to keep warm next winter when the wind isn’t blowing, the same wind that they were guanteed would supply energy to their electric heaters and reduce global warming
Great post, Gerhardt
Every day I am reminded how really stupid Liberals are. Use windmills to cut down on CO2 so let’s cut down the trees that actually utilize CO2. Only complete morons would do something like that.
Scotland has cut down millions of trees to put up windmills. Its astonishing what they have done.
People need to concentrate on warm clothing, blankets, generators, and food! Germany could end up being bailed out on wheat as 50% of their harvest is ruined due to floods. Keep your eye on weather in Australia too, another begging bowl will be coming.
Seriously, think warmth, food, water, and health. Get extra meds and stockpile.
Germans have been cutting down protected forests and burning green wood to stay warm since Washington blew up their gas lines.
And after they cut down the trees, they wouldn’t allow the people to use the wood for heat. Even more incomprehensible.
they already purchased our entire surroundings at 0% interest, and with the George Floyd riot price reduction act.
Black Rock, Vanguard, Fidelity is really all ONE entity, a 3 headed monster.
And it is getting millions every week, from peoples paychecks, diverted to their managed 401k or IRA accounts.
In order to shut down Larry Fink, we would have to persuade EVERYONE to cash in their retirement accounts, and that just ain’t going to happen.
Frankly, at some point, under some pretext, they will TAKE all of the $ in those retirement accounts, anyway.
We both “tried” IRA’s, but fortunately closed them, cashed in and paid IRS “10% for the Big Guy”.
So true. Pension funds are grossly underfunded being propped up by them.
You don’t have to cash out. Most plans let you select different funds with lower exposure to the companies you want to avoid. Takes research.
They should take the loss, and put it into physical gold. Its what I did. Folk can’t bitch about the loss of country if they won’t do things to save it. Look at all the cheap food on digital coupons now. People will be lining up to get while bitching about the CBDC!
Keep in mind that physical gold is taxed higher than stocks when sold at profit. The IRS considers it a collectible which puts it into your personal tax bracket.
The maximum capital gains tax rate on collectibles such as gold, silver and other precious metals held longer than a year and sold is 28%.
Who is going to be selling it? You’re going to end up buying with it!
Same. We cashed out all our retirement accounts. We’re debt free, own our home and cars, and have precious metals. We’ve invested in upkeep to our home and cars and garden. It’s extremely important to prepare for the Depression that’s coming.
This is what happens when you don’t enforce antitrust laws and allow huge monopolies to form.
The State creates monopolies to further it’s interests and enrich the well-connected. They don’t just form on there own.
“Data collected by ShareAction shows that US money managers BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard – companies that invest largely for ordinary savers – hold at least $68m (£56m) in four companies that are among the largest cluster bomb makers in the world.
BlackRock, the world’s biggest fund manager, has two companies based in London that invest in cluster munitions, even though the UK has signed up to the treaty banning the weapons.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/cluster-munitions-ethical-investing-blackrock-state-street-vanguard-a9529031.html
Thinking the T-shirt slogans that are being sold at Sharyl Attkisson’s online store hit the mark: “They Think We’re Stupid: We’re Not”
https://store.sharylattkisson.com/
.
Who does she use to ship said merchandise?
Better question is where are they manufactured.
You buy blank T-Shirts and then have them screen printed locally if you are a small or individual concern. The online platforms are numerous to facilitate this.
Where are the shirts made though? That was my question.
support the messages that work people up.
cause 2024 steal protest is it.
and I would bet WE ARE NOT HAVING an election PERIOD.
I THINK I know SOME of whats going to happen between now and election day,…but I wouldn’t make any BETS …lol.
President Trump will win!! Again!!
Trump will win the voting. But who will win the counting?
Considering his Shadow Presidency during PDJT’s Administration, I consider this to be Zero’s Fourth Term already.
Still, the sentiment is solid, they must be defeated or America dies.
I have no idea;
just liked the messages on her T-shirts and coffee mugs and glad to see someone in the press willing to ‘go there’; I would suspect if one were to send an email to the contact on that site answers will be had.
Contact me if interested in printed and logo-ed ware. I have spent my career in the garment business and know how to get it done.
I can be a middleman.
there is one benefit from a recession…. Energy use drops
but the price for the user has to be raised to make up for smaller sales.
$4.49 in my little ‘hood. Am stingy with electricity…trying to keep my money rather than donate to Com Ed.
Gas here is $3.49. it is really hard to keep the electric bill down Currently it is 108 in the shade here. I quit using the central AC and have gone to a couple of window units and LOTS of circulating fans.
Same here, I now use window AC’s. I even got myself a laundry line instead of using the dryer.
My gas heat went to the roof. From 95 to 145 and that was on a budget. Stopped using it except to cook breakfast and fry something. Have a ‘hated’ gas stove. As for the electric, I’ve went battery lighting and rechargeable lamps to boot. Dreading winter though. The gas is my heating source and I live in an old house.
Snap up some hot water bottles!
You are better than a Dollar cheaper where you are, than where I am. Count that as a Blessing.
Gas prices in Central Florida have gone up in the last month
Oil and nat gas are screaming higher for months now.
A global Holodomor is looming.
The war on energy is only one front. Modern crop yields depend on fertilizers in order to feed billions.
Natural gas is an indispensable feedstock in that process to manufacture those fertilizers in quantity.
.
SLO-Joe has been promising a ‘dark winter’ for at least two years now.
Maybe the third time will be his charm . . .
I wish someone would turn out Creepy Joe’s lights. Maybe all of DC’s lights.
And which countries rely on food imports?
The countries currently fighting against the USA
The US helpfully thwarted African efforts to construct fertilizer factories in the name of Climate Control.
We pinky sweared to cover their fertilizer needs . . .
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Grain Deal was sold as essential to prevent starvation on the Dark Continent, but only 13% of it actually went there, mostly it was a ruse to make cash, smuggle weapons, and take potshots at Russian territories.
Pretty sure the Collective West not only ensured the end of their Black Sea shipping days with that move, they also sealed the deal on Russian retaking Odessa and landlocking the future Ukrainian rump state; there is no trusting the West again and NATO and their pets will be minimized and pushed back.
Russia has offered free grain to many of them.
And the NAZTO/Nuland regime lectured them that accepting it would be slavery, lololol
Forty African nations just signed military cooperation agreements with Russia.
Nuland is mocked to her face when she goes to school the poor benighted Africans.
The world less and less wants what Washington has been selling; I’m so down for that.
Rocking In The Free World ain’t what we ever thought it was!
I grow all my own food, and people have to start making their own fertilizer. Its so easy!
It’s here, they won’t admit. Have no debt! If you bought a marked up home your sweating.
Lots of walkaways likely, not to mention questionable rise in arsons.
After all, if the banks won’t let one have a home, why let them have it?
Incremental Anarchy is inevitable.
God will not be mocked. The body must call down this evil.
Slow action there, or none.
“Global shipping company Maersk is warning that shipping volume is low because warehouse inventories are high. The goods are unsold.” – Sundance
Well looks like ChiCom Joe has finally figured out how to get rid of the backlog of shipping containers at the California ports!!!
Let;s not forget..
The Panama Canal (PCZ) are now restricting shipping..
Due too climate change * they say*.. Nevermind the (NEW & Improved) Larger 3rd locks, use 2X more water(s) to get Ships across the Isthmus of Panama..
The *original* Canal builders, didn’t account for those 3rd locks, NOR.. When it, (they) were proposed,, the MAFF, (It’s racist don’t cha know).. Resulted in the 3rd locks NOT being completed, BECAUSE of the water requirements!
Now; that they ARE completed & operating,, Well, (suddenly), there’s NOT enough WATER to operate the locks (normally)..
BUT.. Muh Climate change!
Not too mention, US *Consumers* are in 1 TRILLION in credit card debt..
Hone~owners are NOW facing, being, *underwater* in Home loans..
Car 8repossions* are heading upwards
Food Prices are still YET increasing..
Fuel prices are, yet again going higher..
Adding to (overall) inflation..
Too what end?
It’s not going too end well..
QUE~UP yet another Scamademic scare, incoming..
IMHO, it won’t be another scamdemic, it will be another “Financial crises” something like 2008.
Triggered by Russia leading a charge, thru BRICS, for countries to dump their U.S. Treasuries, instead going to some version of currencies backed by Gold, or a “basket of commodities” (can you say OIL?).
The U.S. Govt. experts will set their hair on fire, and like Paulson in 2008, say “their is no time for debate/discussion! The only way to prevent total collapse is if we adopt CBDC’s so that we can MANAGE (can you say MICRO-manage?) the economy.
CBDC’s are the penultimate tool, far preferable (from THEIR point of view) to wage/price controls…
And if they succeed in frightening enough Americans into falling for it, they win.
Hopefully, enough Americans have caught in to how they use FEAR to manipulate, and won’t fall for it.
With CBDC’s fully in place, elections become truly irrelevant, as does 2A or any other rights.
My personal lines in the sand, if they prevent us from voting for PDJT by any means, or of him winning, or if they attempt to institute CBDC’s.
I too expect a financial meltdown soon as a tool to ‘herd’ many with fear.
I admit I was also among those who were afraid at the start of the lockdown in 2020.
Within 2 weeks I announced to all the adult kids “You can’t walk in faith and walk in fear at the same time, it’s either/or.”
We went back to having our family gatherings without masks and to hell with whatever ‘they’ recommended.
Look at all the sheep saving pennies with digital coupons, apps to check out faster because they’re too damned lazy to wait. Government already has them, and they can have them!
I don’t feel sorry for credit card abusers. If you can’t afford it, you shouldn’t have it. End of.
I am curious to see how many ‘upvotes’ you get for this comment. I ‘upped’ you.
I don’t own a cell phone, and have no intention of getting one, and I can tell you now, if I was having children today, I would not be registering their births either. I’d let them travel through the system like ghosts.
The drop in energy consumption is exactly what is planned. I see even more drastic measures to bring in their bbb policies. Rationing of gas to slow down the boiling temperatures. Cut back in air travel. National standards being imposed on the temperature in your home or office. One way or another the economy will collapse exactly as planned.
The not-so-hidden agenda of the Biden government is the deconstruction of contemporary American society. This is straight Frankfurt School Critical Theory dogma (AKA “Cultural Marxism—a misnomer. This current dogma is not Marxist at all. It is “Cultural Maoism”. It seeks to first destroy our social institutions and then rebuild society by changing the way people actually think.) Scary stuff.
Viva Mexico. Natural gas in abundance. New refineries coming online. Tren Maya operates starting in December. Cancun hotels are full of tourists. Viva Mexico
those of us who were complaining about utility companies installing smart meters
were afraid of this
yup.
declare a “climate emergency” and implement draconian measures.
Our business is in industrial Non-Destructive Testing (NDT).
We’ve been in business since 1987.
Typically, we see our business start to lag 1 – 1.5 years after a ‘recession’ is announced (or admitted!).
2022 was our best year ever. This year pretty much sucks.
In the ’70s, the Rust Belt got clobbered in a massive economic recession.
Where is today’s rust belt? China.
Not sure where this is going, but I’m sure gonna need plenty of popcorn for the show.
“Where this is going”? ….China will do like all failing governments do,… they Go to War. Taiwan, you know this is coming your way.
Catholic: You get it! I agree. China is greatly expanding its military because it intends to use it.
You think your gonna be a spectator to what’s coming? 15 million military age invaders in this country and your going to be a participant-willing or unwilling.
Its not whether I think I will be affected or not – I really do not give a f**k. They played their hand with the covid games and taught me everything could come crashing down tomorrow – and I’m ready for that.
IMO, the left needs to suffer with the crap they demanded – no, begged for – and thrust upon the rest of us. And they will suffer well, long before I am willing to cry uncle.
Now get off my lawn.
interesting theory. IMO the “left” is busy inoculating themselves against having to suffer the consequences nearly as much as the peasants.
to wit – if you are a tranny, you can get the exemption to be forced to deploy – a regular old peasant – our children and grandchildren – not so much.
and once again we will have an opportunity to decide if we will consent or not.
Mike… the U.S. Military is going to stop any and all “invaders”… when the invaders see all those ‘men in skirts’ coming at them, they’ll die laughing!
China helped China Joe steal the election and cut their own throat in the process.
Hope you’ve got a generator to fire up your popcorn machine, because when the balloon goes up, the entire electrical grid in the US will be taken down. Just what do you think all of those Chinese nationals crossing the southern border are coming here to do?
Sundance spoke to the potential for increased warehouse inventories, oh about a year-year and a half ago….I guess we are here.
So I guess it is also safe to say that, whatever ‘toy’ or device that becomes the ‘hot holiday item’…say like Cabbage Patch Dolls of the early 80’s…is decided by purchasing managers….am wondering if they all get together and have a pow wow to decide what items to sell for highest profitability? They must, I would think…under the guise of industry meetings etc…
Another aspect of ‘social’ engineering.
Barbies!
Hah! The “fashionable” colors for makeup, specifically lipstick and nail polish, change from year to year.
I read the makeup companies do “focus group polls” of 10-14 y.o. girls, at swiss boarding schools, and follow their,..reccomendations.
So, its NOT “purchasing managers” they know nothing about whats going to be the next hot item.
I’m surprised that volume has only dropped 5.9% at the USPS. Several relatives who work there say it has dropped off the table. Many people not getting a single piece of mail 2-3 days per week.
.
Huh?
State election officials are keeping the usps in the red by having undeliverable ballots by the millions ‘sent’ out . . .
Hence, postal carriers in general do not have much to deliver (how do you deliver undeliverable mail?), yet have chargeable postage put on all that mail.
My maillady has been at my house around 12:30 PM for around 2 weeks now, this is the end of her route, and not delivering anything.
same. used to be 4:00.
I get mail maybe 3 days a week and half or more is for my daughter and son-in-law who use my address. Most of the rest is junk with maybe 3 pieces a month to me that I consider useful. All bills and accounts are paperless now.
I can be assured at least twice a week I receive in the mail, “We want to buy your home. No closing costs! Close in as little as a week! No inspections; we buy as is! Contact me to see what your home is worth! Would you like to sell your home?! (With a pic of not my home 🤣).
I guess I should be saving these little fliers for kindling…may need it!
for those of us who pay bills online
the people who email bills instead of mail are not paying postage
the people who pay by email are not paying postage
The US is in big trouble and few Americans realize just how bad our position is. Unfortunately, it’s going to take something traumatic, like an Even Greater Depression for people to finally get it.
That day may come sooner than we know.
Just think what we could do if we had thousands of SUNDANCES..So few really get it. I continue to pray for our nation….
Slowly then all at once.
exactly.
In 2020 I put razor wire atop my fences on all sides, and planted thorny blackberries for food and more security. I didn’t time them in all pretty, I let them scramble. I now have 4ft deep of vicious thorns. How safe is your perimeter?
I have a vinyl fence and a dog with an attitude problem 😏
Our Ship of State is foundering and going down by the bow thanks to Captain Joe while his buddies are busy looting the purser’s safe before we go under.
I knew something was wrong when Captain Joe slammed the ship into reverse and then ran into the iceberg over and over again while burning the lifeboats for fuel.
Adding to the belt tightening is the news that Americans held over $1 trillion in credit card debt in the second quarter of 2023, a new record.
In a similar vein as the Democrats annual promise to lower student loan debts guess this election season they will add eliminate, or lower, credit card debt from those ‘evil’ credit card companies.
They do love to punish the responsible by subsiding the irresponsible.
Got off the credit trap, 20+ years ago. Second best decision I ever made, the first being marrying my wife.
I consistently see things affirming just how RIGHT this decision was.
o.k. Dutch. I’m going to put you in the crosshairs… “WHICH decision”?
I waited 50 years to find my bride.
It took 25 years to get rid of the first one.
“I’ve been married so long I don’t even look before I cross the street.”
–someone in an unhappy marriage
good one!
Every number is manufactured by the government. The real numbers are off the charts. 2007-2012 will look like child’s play.
Likely much higher.
Just wow!
The resultant calamity will be when they usher in CBDC. Government spending will have to increase to support the illegal immigrants and unemployed working class in blue States that have State and local governments also running on deficits and unfunded obligations like retirements. All these issues will be ignored until after the 2024 election is over. The only way out is Trump!
I don’t think immigration will be much of a problem here, or Europe in the future. Africa will be more prosperous than we are, and so will Mexico.
I’m with you in the Hope… but there MUST be better people around him this time.
There will be.
Everyone has shown their colors.
His MAGA Army is ready to rock.
The curious thing about this is I’ve noticed my grocery bills were lower over the past two months as prices in the supermarket on a lot of items are cheaper. Is this a different metric than durable goods?
Not where we live. I have to shop for sales, especially on meat and eggs. $14 a pound for a ribeye that cost $7 a pound several years ago. It’s disgusting.
As I posted up thread, bought a bone in rib eye for Memorial day sale @ Kroger corp store…. 5.97 / lb, you just have to buy the whole cut @ 100 bucks to get the deal, else 14.99 / lb.
I think I got 2 steaks left 1.5-2 ” cuts … wonder what cut will be for the coming Labor day sale, New Yorks were July 4 item as I recall, passed on that one tho.
I guarantee that your containers are smaller.
You’ve noticed what many do not.
Only things I see as cheaper are eggs, and milk. Milk may remain cheap, or cheaper still. China cancelled its milk powder order. They intend to use Brazil from now on. They will also be using Brazil for soybeans
China is also selling its US Treasuries.
Our entire society is built on cheap energy. If we are going back to the energy usage of 1923 we are going to have the population of 1923…
That was their intention all along. DEPOPULATION.
First you introduce contraception, destroy the family unit, and make abortions everyday happenings.
That creates an age gap of more elderly than young. Then you release a virus ensuring it takes out 92% elderly leaving enough young to care for the remainder. What you eventually end up with is virtual extinction.
You can pick any industry you want and find an apocalyptic metric somewhere in it.
Meaning I’ve got a whole wall full of apocalyptic predictions non of which have appeared. No one is keeping track of apocalyptic predictions. And yet they still keep coming.
All I know is – it cost $4 a pound for peaches that two years ago cost $2 a pound. So, the peach apocalypse is upon us and none of the braniacs predicting apocalypses said squat about it.
If your looking for something bigger than a peach apocalypse, then pay attention to the recent Moody bank downgrades. It has the same smell about it as the Silicon Valley bust. “They” don’t want you to think too hard about this one, lest you think banks are not safe for your money. Soto voce “bank run.”
The banks taking the hit are the banks heavily invested in commercial buildings. Particularly empty commercial buildings, the ones where the renters have let their staff work from home. No renters? No rent payments to the bank. The bank is, thus, holding an asset (commercial building) that is now worthless. Which means if you go to the bank to get your money out and they have to sell there assets to get you your money, they can’t come up with enough to give you your money. Sound familiar? It should. Substitute worthless bonds for worthless commercial buildings and voila! -Silicon Valley bank all over again.
That’s my apocalyptic prediction for today.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/investing/moodys-credit-ratings-us-banks/index.html
Leading to government bailouts and more money printing.
..cnn…lol
At some point the banks will do a bail-in. Best to spends on things you genuinely need, and hold some physical cash, barterable items, and PMs. And make a donation to the CTH.
It’s been “end of the world” for awhile now, but I am not seeing it. Granted, I live in a surburban area where the largest employers are education (counties), the state (capital), healthcare to include several large hospitals and a medical college, and tech companies. We have one of the few Tesla dealerships in the country, and those cars are everywhere. Restaurants are full. Gas and diesel are readily available. Shopping malls and venues are full on the weekends. Entertainment venues are full. Plenty of new trucks and high-end vehicles everywhere. Houses are sold above asking price and go as soon as they are put on the market, mortgage rates be damned. If you want something at the supermarkets, it’s there. Prices are high but people are still paying.
Credit card debt for US consumers just passed the $1 Trillion mark for the first time ever.
Even after accounting for the fact your local economy (government, healthcare, and tech) is heavily insulated from the Main Street economy, I would offer that your observations and this data point are not disconnected.
I do not disagree. I would bet that anyone not working in an ‘insulated’ job (good word, insulated) is working that credit card hard, likely several, and taking a loan on that big truck for seven years.
$1 trillion in credit card debt is astounding for several reasons.
The creditcard debtors are paying 25-30% on that $Trillion => at least $250 BILLION unnecessary expense and pure profit for the banks. What is wrong with ‘them’ (our fellow citizens)?
When the Fed was lending money to the banks at 1%, this was an unconscionable scam enabled by a crazy Supreme Court decision that prevented States from protecting their citizens from usury. (freedom of Texas citizens to contract with a Delaware or South Dakota bank…) It is still a remarkable profit scam when the FED now lends to banks at 5-6%. Congress could easily fix this – it is unconscionable that neither Dems or GOP have tried.
That our citizenry squanders over $250BILLION unnecessarily is a measure of our overall stupidity and suggestibility. It explains why propaganda works so well and is so effective here. Anyone who pays 25% interest on debt that will need to be repaid eventually, can easily accept whatever the talking heads on the news tell them. Or their congresscritters claim. The Creditcard debt total is a quantitative measure of the degradation and loss of functionality and capability.
Astounding, I agree. I don’t think most of this debt will ever be paid back. Congress will never fix it. It will be written off. Bankruptcy laws will be loosened. Probably a couple of other terrible ideas will be thought off and backed by Democrats so that folks can walk away from their debts. And never expect the SCROTUS to do the right thing. Collectively, they are as bad as any part of our government.
Which state are you in? I don’t see that browsing the Internet. I see empty malls, luxury stores, and restaurants with no customers
Virginia. Henrico County. Western part.
However, that said, there is one benefit from a recession…. Energy use drops.
Apparently sarcasm. Less energy use shrinks the economy–the goal of the Biden puppet masters. More energy use expands it. In a recent interview when asked what he would do first when he takes office, Trump said, “Close the border and drill, baby drill.”
Adam Taggart on his Wealthion you tube channel did a short, 7 minute, video along these lines, titled “Have We Truly Dodged A Recession This Year?”
Margin calls & Leverage anyone?
A couple more signs of a bad economy:
Trucking volume and spending are down as reported at https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/freight-volume-and-spending-declined-markedly-second-quarter. The bankruptcy of Yelliw Trucking, including the laying off of 30,000 employees won’t help either.
Cardboard box sales are also down as reported at https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/big-drop-in-cardboard-box-sales-scream-recession/.
I saw both items mentioned in articles on Michael Snyder’s Substack, https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/. I don’t pay much attention to his “the apocalypse is coming now” articles but his artcles on the economy that list 9 reasons this or 7 reasons that and the ones about societal decline are helpful because he gathers news from sources I might not read and provides direct links.
Destocking??? Was it hung by the chimney with care?
Cute!
I was outside the other day doing yard work when my neighbor called me over. She asked me “how come taxes are so high”? She said 1/3 of her paycheck goes to taxes – I live in Illinois! She mentioned prices at the grocery store are outrageously high. I said yes I know, it’s been like that for awhile now. She kept asking why? Why? I said because the people of Illinois keep voting Democrat. She said this has to stop and things were better under Trump.
FYI: she had a Democrat sign in her yard for State Senator last election cycle. She said inflation and taxes are going to push her to vote Trump in 2024.
I keep saying, the sheeple ARE,finally waking up, and there is a second wave of “walk aways” from the Dem party: Straka led the miderate and conservative Dems, and they broadcast theircleaving with videos.
This second wave, of liberals aren’t broadcasting it, but they ARE leaving.
We are getting closer to UNITY, and ultimately that is the goal of America First, and Unity is the one thing tyranny can not stand against.
Definitely a slow learner.
If a Republican administration were in charge right now the media would already have us suffering a huge depression.
So true. I wish I could fit that on a bumper sticker
These multinational vipers won’t have to worry much longer. Wait till the DemCong activate thire foriegn invader army . The warehouses will be stripped bare. I’m going to start carrying my AR in the truck- hell I’m gonna carry a full combat/trauma/bio/chem kit! Especially when pulling my temperature controlled unit( refrigerated trailer) Hanging beef will be a prime hijack target. Goodbye America.
local radio news is selling it as inflation has level’d or moderated.
we know form reading here. they are looking at the year over year… which means your price is up but it didnt increase as much as last year.
so manipulative
Let’s call it what it is – outright lies. They know darn well that 95% of their readers/ viewers/ listeners won’t understand the nuances of the data…. and the news writers never explain the true interpretation…
IIRC, John Williams at Shadow Stats said true unemployment is at 25%.
Should be interesting to see what the people behind Biden come up with to temporarily boost the economy prior to the 2024 election. Or maybe they don’t care because they know the election rigging will guarantee them the win.
an event that willl take the supreme court to overrule in 2 years from now. by then they may have already arreste the supreme court.
They can have NO confidence that they will be able to “just steal it, again”.
Biden IS supposed to lose, to either RDS in the general, or back up plan Jr. in the primary.
Notice as RDS continues to flounder, both Fox and Congress give Jr. free media coverage?
That trend will continue.
RDS was supposed to take the primary, then pull a Romney and lose to Newsome.
I’m betting no elections because we’ll be under martial law.
Haven’t you noticed the immense manufacturing building boom?
Lots and lots of government money going into financing buildings to manufacture…wait for it….all the green stuff coming down the pike. And you will be buying it! Because the government says green is all your going to get. that’s your part in saving the planet
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/us-leaves-peers-behind-with-factory-building-boom-treasury-says
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-building-factories-census-data-chips-act-inflation-reduction-act-2023-6
Sorry about the paywall stuff. Trust me 🙂
Everything is up and continuing to go up! We did notice that boats were being marked down and golf carts. It is a boat or food on the table issue.
Heck, we are still noticing that businesses are begging for workers. A few places we frequent from diners, marinas to gas stations….are so understaffed they close early or only open half of the week.
My husband is out in Sturgis, SD and says the rally is small this year and the service everywhere they have gone to eat is awful!
The damn is about ready to break. But the Perv and crackhead- human trafficking -demented son are doing well.
2024 Trump
Trump/Lake 2024
Retribution!
BTW, Lake denied she has interest in running for the Senate, but says if she did she would win, lol.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it go..
Come on, Sundance, how can we believe that? I think things are normal. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/ups-drivers-to-average-170000-in-pay-benefits-at-end-of-5-year-deal.html
21 bucks an hour for part time workers, which is usually humping boxes between places in their sorting facility’s and on to trucks.
Now I compare that to the current “minimum” wage McD’s is offering which is 18-19 dollars an hour to flip burgers or Kroger corp up to 21.45 to start…. let me think….. yet there are still few takers at either McD’s or big “K” other than next to worthless multi-colored hair weirdos that appear for a week or two before they disappear. SMH
However I would take (I believe you must) the 21 bucks if it leads to that 170K / yr job.
We may not know the statistics, but our pocketbooks know what is happening. I feel it every time I have to go to the store.
Two days ago, I wandered through Walmart. There seem to be more racks of Clearance clothing than I am used to seeing, though it is back-to-school time, so maybe those will clearance out in the next 2 or 3 weeks. I didn’t see much shopping except for food and pharmacy….the necessities….and not even much of that.
Ironic? “except for food and parmacy”…. Who knew that society would consider ‘pharmacy’ a necessity? Something has been wrong with lifestyles for a loooonggg time.
I went to a Walmart supercenter on Monday. There were so many parking spaces available. The number of people in the store was really low for a weekday based on my past experience at that store.
On an interesting side note, the checkout clerk told me they aren’t using the 20 roof top air conditioning units they have because it’s too expensive and cuts into the store’s profit. Um, WHAT???? I knew it felt warm in there. This is South Carolina. It’s currently 83/feels like 91 at 9:08 p.m. it was around 92-94 and humid when I was there so probably around 104-106 for the feels like temp. No, we don’t need AC for that.
Speaking of insane business practices:
Corie Berry is Best Buy’s White CEO. She was exposed by James O’ Keefe as only offering management training to minorities. Whites need not apply. People will boycott Best Buy. I have spend a lot of $ on electronics there through the years. I am scratching them off my list. I just bought a new cell phone and tablet. Guess who did not get my $?
Then there was the doofus female in charge of the tranny marketing fiasco at Anheuser Busch. How much further can they tank? How many more brands do they have to sell off?
What is with these nutjob Marxist females.
(I know. There are plenty of male nutjobs.) Also, there was the female banker who suspended Nigel Farage’s banking privileges. Idiots dwell on either side of the pond.
I have “spent”– not I have spend. Excuse me. I have not had one sip of 🍷!
I swear 🤞!
I had not heard this – I will never spend a penny there again. Although, I don’t spend much now – I’m amazed they are still in business given the changing retail market.
The economy is not good. The amount of sales retailers of all levels are having are unreal. The markdowns are way more than normal. I’m assuming this means consumers have stopped their spending and we are a consumer-driven economy…
I’m seeing this too. I just saw a $1500 cookware set on sale for $399.
I am not seeing that in our area. Also see a lot of last year’s merchandise still on the racks (Dillard’s).
Just wait. The BRICS alliance is meeting August 22-24 and if they announce a gold backed currency, the fiat US dollar is dead and the devastation to the US economy will make 2008-2009 look like a prank.
Not happening. The dollar will be the last man standing , but it will also fall .
By December, it will take a trillion dollars to service the existing debt. That’s half of the total monies taken in from taxes. This will drive higher interest rates and of course the banks will raise rates.
Who do you think will be paying higher cost for everything purchased? Now, what can the ordinary citizen do about this. You can swap service for service. Leaving money out of the exchange process. You can not use debit or credit cards for services. In short, paper or coins.
You can move to climates or locations with fewer fluctuations in temperature.
Do NOT dismiss the “extra” 87,000 IRS agents, who have been ‘armed’ and have been taking lessons on ‘how to take down a business owner’.
Destocking? Really? I wish these idiots would just detalk and debreathe! Or as normal folks say, shut-up and drop dead!
lol… my thoughts exactly. Why do they need new language?
I bet they feel so smart inventing their new words, like disinformation, malinformation.
Destocking isn’t a valid word in Scrabble but give it time.
In de hood we call it taking off de stocking.
The smoke that obscures.
Last September some fool from Target’s upper echelons came up with this gem:
“It also meant quickly building compelling promotional plans to drive unit velocity for product we already owned.”
In Standard English: “We need to pull some sales out of our ass to get rid of all this crap. Quickly.”
This linguistic lunacy is reflection of overpaid people trying to sound more important than they without acknowledging reality.
I went to Hobby Lobby last week
and was really surprised at all
the stocked shelves…..
Of Christmas items!
Christmas decorations items.
None marked down or on
sale.
I could understand getting a
head start on Christmas crafts.
But it was mainly Christmas decorations
and Christmas gift type items shocked me.
I always gripe about Christmas items
for sale before Thanksgiving….seeing
all those aisles and stocked shelves
the beginning of August….🤬
Now with reading Sundance and
reading this article, I can see what
is going on.
And almost all made in China. Nope, not buying (not that I need any more Christmas decorations in my lifetime).
Walked into Lowe’s on August 7 and they had a Halloween display up. Went back in on August 8 and they were playing Christmas music over their speakers.
Disgusting but shows their fear of lousy holiday season sales.
Every time we shop we see indicators, higher prices for smaller volume. I would love to see inflation broke down by the ounce or unit.
And once again Sundance produces a wonderful article with CONTEXT to connect the dots!
The CTH is the credible source for concise, documented information.
(Decades ago, the now discredited WP and the NYT used to be).
Hey
As long as you have a couple million dollars accessible this is nothing to worry about says Biden and Kerry.
Many assumed we would be in recession by now, yet we are not. At least by government reported GDP numbers. Has anyone researched the notion that since government spending is a component of GDP, and government spending has increased dramatically, the government spending is the reason GDP has not contracted. What % of GDP was government spending under Trump -prior to the Wuhan Flu – and now under Biden?
Just curious
I think you are asking a great question and I would be willing to bet that government spending is the reason GDP has not contracted. Or, they are cooking the books.
Government spending on Ukraine and LNG sales to Europe due to the Nordstream Pipelines disappearance have been keeping us out of a statistical recession. But neither of those affect what is happening on Main Street.
All you need to do is keep an eye on one product: cardboard.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/cardboard-box-demand-plunging-at-rates-unseen-since-the-great-recession#
In my quest to find the least physically demanding job after “retirement” my quest started out at “sam’s club” for 1 month,” public storage” for 3 months and have been working as a security guard at an upscale outdoor mall for over 1 year.
I tell u this story because after 3 months at ps. , I left not because of work load but because of their policies. Having never before needing a storage unit before ,after moving from a larger home to a downsized home , I finally at 69 years old needed an 8 by 10 ft storage unit. In 2021 I started at $70 per month and now pay $115.
I am on autopay but after working there I discovered if you are 7 days late ,they charge a 20% late fee. Another 20 days and they add $50 and change the lock. Then off to auction after 45 days. In these challenging times I felt bad for people who fell behind.Also could not understand y so many rate increases. Was told that between late fees and prices increases it keeps their profits up. Remember PS is the largest storage co. in the world( by units and sq. Footage of rentable space) Great co. to invest in but a very uncompassionate co. for the struggling space renter.
Pray and help.others
The great thing about Bidenomics is that after robbing us blind for the past 3 years, he can make things improve by simply robbing us a bit less for a short time.
and doesn’t the student loan freeze end in october?if those people did have money they ain’t gonna once the payments resume.
Presuming people actually start paying…
Just me, but this morning I paid $3.40.9 for gas at Sams. In town it is $3.69. Yesterday I posted pictures (not here) of the flood of 1993 in St. Louis. In one of the pictures, gas was $1.01. The Moron can take his Bidenomics to Hell when he goes.
“Because all advance purchase orders for the U.S. holiday season are made in May, June and July for inventory builds and delivery schedules for September. ”
Can absolutely confirm! Way back in the late 60s/mid 70s my father was a Manufacturer’s Rep for artificial Christmas trees, lights, ornaments (think Shiny Brite 😍🎄) etc…which at that time were ALL made in the USA, mostly in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and upstate NY. The trade shows were in January – February and all the orders were placed in the spring, for delivery in the early fall.
(I started working with my dad when I was 12 and saw first hand what happened to American manufacturing thanks to politicians, from BOTH sides of the aisle, who sold their souls to China!)
We are in for a very rough ride in the 3rd Q and it will be interesting to see how the media tries to spin it to somehow make it NOT be Joe Biden’s fault….