The Brexit Deal, The EU, and the North American Trade Aspect…

Trying to find the details within the U.K-EU Brexit deal is more difficult than finding evidence of a Yeti.  The negotiating team secrecy is inherent to the way the elites within the European systems work. Essentially the “betters” rule the proles by hiding the details and relying upon the electorate to “trust” the outlined framework of their elected superiors.

Hiding details is a feature within the European system and the way the government looks at their role.

That said, tomorrow British members of parliament will begin debating the deal for the UK to exit the EU.  The deal was modified by Boris Johnson.  A backgrounder:

.

Farage is concerned, rightly, about how the framework of the EU customs union is constructed to influence the UK after Brexit.  From what can be determined there’s a triggering mechanism where the UK and EU begin a lengthy process to construct a UK trade agreement with the EU after Brexit takes place.

Within that post-Brexit automatic trade-framework is where the European Union is seeking to retain their influence over the United Kingdom. However, it is not accurate to overlay EU influence too heavily, and here’s why….

Within the current framework there’s a customs union design similar to a Venn diagram, that consists of Northern Ireland remaining attached to EU tariff rules, and yet the UK is not subject to the same parameters.  So there’s three different sets of trade rules in place.

One set between the EU and Northern Ireland; one set between Northern Ireland and the UK; and one set between the EU and the UK.   All of this is designed to stop the UK from having independent trade wealth that is beyond the reach of the EU to control.

It’s complicated.

However, here’s the aspect you won’t find discussed.

Within the agreement as it appears the EU can, likely would, punish the UK for having more favorable trade agreements with other nations.  Meaning if the UK gives better deals to others than it does the EU, the EU will increase tariffs against the UK intended to punish the UK by restricting access to the EU market for UK products.   But that’s the limit of what the EU will be able to do….

Meaning, the EU cannot stop the UK from entering a trade deal with North America (think USMCA).  And there’s every visible likelihood President Trump is constructing a U.S.-U.K trade agreement with that in mind…. Meaning the U.K. will have preferential access to North America, and the USMCA countries (Mexico, U.S. and Canada) will in turn have preferential treatment in trade with the U.K.

This is important.  The EU will not be able to influence the U.S-U.K. trade agreement beyond imposing tariffs on Britain as punishment.  This is where the importance of Donald Trump comes in….  Trump can, I would say: likely will, give preferential treatment to exports from the U.K., so long as PM Boris Johnson is reciprocal toward the U.S.

Simultaneously, President Trump can hit the EU much harder than the EU can hit Great Britain.  If, say, the EU hits the UK with a 25% tariff as punishment for a better trade deal with the U.S. on any individual segment, Trump can hit the EU with a 25% tariff back on the EU.

The EU needs access to the $20 Trillion U.S. market much more than the EU needs access to the newly freed U.K. market.  Brexiteers should remember this.  President Trump and PM Johnson can work together to leverage this trade situation to both of their benefits.  The EU will want to keep selling their stuff into the U.K. (less important); but the EU *has to* keep selling their stuff into the U.S. (very important) in order to survive.

Trump and Johnson can work on a U.S-U.K. trade superhighway.   Our research already sees this construct in the discussions.  Simultaneously, Trump can pummel the EU with tariffs.  [Keep in mind the U.S. just won a WTO ruling for $7.5 billion a year in countervailing duties the EU cannot legally try and counteract.]

Combine the $7.5 billion WTO ruling with the potential for President Trump to hammer additional duties against the EU for adverse trade action within the Brexit customs authority, and what you see is an EU that can threaten action, but has limited recourse (just like China).

President Trump is itching to trigger more tariffs against the EU and looking for any economic excuse to do so.  Brexit provides just that excuse.

This is why, despite the flaws inherent within the UK-EU Brexit agreement, it would be in the best interests of the U.K. to vote in support of the current deal and get out.

Once out, President Trump can then provide trade incentives for EU products that come from the U.K. that do not come from the EU itself.   No U.S. tariffs on Great Britain, while Trump puts heavy U.S. tariffs on the EU.

The result of this process would push EU manufacturers and suppliers into the U.K. as a trade hub for access to North America, specifically the United States.  Simultaneously, EU companies wanting to avoid the U.S. tariffs against the EU could distribute their products through operations within the U.K.

As described this trade network provides PM Boris Johnson with the ability to pick and choose the EU entities that he would permit to operate in the U.K.  In essence, this provides Prime Minister Boris Johnson with leverage against the EU for “other issues” of importance.

It’s all about the economics.

Without money to finance their ideology, everything stops.

All of the above stated, this is another reason why Nancy Pelosi and the ideological leftists are trying to stall the USMCA. The North American Trade agreement is the trade fulcrum for a massive global economic reset.

The corporate multinational profit schemes to use China/Asia, and the political ideology behind the socialists/leftists that align with the EU (ie. “share the wealth”), are both weakened by a North American trade alliance, USMCA, that relocates the best return on international investment.

At the center of this realignment is “America First“.

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This entry was posted in Big Government, Brexit, Canada, Donald Trump, Economy, European Union, media bias, Mexico, NAFTA, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, United Kingdom (UK) and Great Britain, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

91 Responses to The Brexit Deal, The EU, and the North American Trade Aspect…

  1. RE: The result of this process would push EU manufacturers and suppliers into the U.K. as a trade hub for access to North America, specifically the United States. Simultaneously, EU companies wanting to avoid the U.S. tariffs against the EU could receive their products through operations within the U.K.

    The EU will no doubt impose sanctions on ANY EU entity setting up “operations within the U.K.”

    They won’t be able to stop malicious abuses.

    SPECULATION: The EU’s multiplying sanctions against member states will create unstoppable centrifugal forces that multiply Nation-State EXITS.

    Liked by 17 people

    • WES says:

      BKR: Me thinks Northern Ireland may end up being where EU companies set up their malicious operations! Maybe Ristvan can enlighten us if my suspicions are correct! Northern Ireland seems to be in legal no man’s land between the UK and EU!

      Liked by 1 person

      • Mrs. E says:

        Except that BOJO did say that Brexit means the nation, saying it after the EU and NI said they could set up separately from the UK following Brexit, so not sure he will allow Northern Ireland to remain in the EU. Complicated is the word for it.

        Liked by 1 person

        • There was a great 3-way conversation on what is currently known of the Johnson Brexit (versus the May Brexit). Their conclusion is that after almost 100 years, England is giving up on Northern Ireland. If you look at the Venn diagram, this is the obvious thing to do. The Ulsterman are not going to like it, but it may be time for all of them who can to come home to England and allow Irish Unification under the EU to take place.

          Liked by 1 person

      • The Demon Slick says:

        The trap for the US is the EU trying to establish a back door through Britain into the US market. In the EUs mind, they will be able to avoid paying US tariffs by assembling/shipping from Britain. This would function in the same way that China used Canada prior to USMCA. However, President Trump is not going to allow that. He’s told Drunker, he’s told Boris, that’s not happening.
        My opinion, the deal stinks. Fail the deal and crash out. Maybe once they miss a few checks the EU will stop acting like they’re the boss of Great Britain.

        Like

    • 🍺Gunny66 says:

      Can you see the pure genius and the obvious irony of the President’s plan?

      He is doing “exactly the same trade scenario to the EU that China did to the US thru Mexico and Canada.
      Only, he is using the UK.
      He just flipping over the USMCA deal making the EU go thru the UK.

      Pure Genius

      Liked by 18 people

      • De Oppresso Liber says:

        Not to mention that President Trump also holds the ultimate Trump Card — pun intended — in that if Pigglosi and the America haters refuse to vote to approve USMCA, should Trudeau survive via a bought-and-paid-for Canadian media, the president can simply remove the U.S. from NAFTA altogether, go back to pre-NAFTA rules, and make the deal with the U.K. anyway.

        Looks like a win — win to me.

        Liked by 5 people

      • Put on the popcorn … Let’s see how POTUS forces Congress to pass USMCA.

        Liked by 1 person

      • The Demon Slick says:

        I think it’s a mistake. That is, I believe it would be a mistake but I don’t think it’s what’s going on. See my post above. I think it’s the opposite.

        Like

  2. mefotobug says:

    75 billion? Or 7.5 billion?

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Elric VIII says:

    As far as I can tell, there is no downside for the U.S. or U.K. for a Brexit – hard Brexit or not – and no upside for the E.U. It seems that Northern Ireland may be in the catbird seat until thing shake out.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. mopar2016 says:

    The common fisheries policy of the UK should change.
    Let the EU fish somewhere else.

    Liked by 6 people

  5. Rhoda R says:

    Does the USMCA agreement require approval for any treaty of this sort with the UK (or any other country for that matter)?

    Like

    • WES says:

      Rhoda: In another thread SD said the USMCA must be in place before the US can make a trade agreement with the UK.

      Like

      • De Oppresso Liber says:

        I thought President Trump could remove us altogether from NAFTA, reinstate pre-NAFTA rules, and make a trade deal with whomever he pleases……is that not correct?

        Like

        • The Demon Slick says:

          We currently are operating under USMCA as a sign of good faith. Mostly. Some things are moving forward slowly. More slowly with Pelosi being a… well I can’t say that word, but that’s what she is.

          Liked by 2 people

          • De Oppresso Liber says:

            Concur on the assessment, and I cannot say those words either…..in my particular case, I had to promise Ad Rem that I would “cease and desist,” so to speak.

            Liked by 1 person

  6. Miklos says:

    All good, but almost.

    The nexus of UK/EU trade would be Northern Ireland.

    Currently 55% of the GDP of Northern Ireland is actually transfers from the rest of the UK.

    This could be a win-win even a stubborn Ulsterman could like.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. TheTorch says:

    Excellent Sundance. That is a very good read of the situation.

    It may not be a perfect agreement (what is) but as I posted yesterday, it is probably the best deal possible under the circumstances and most importantly the UK will be out of the Customs Union, which is one of the reasons that a lot of people voted Leave, it is not just about immigration like the left would have you believe, and that is dealt with anyway by being out of the single market which means the freedom of movement of people is stopped, which at the moment the UK can’t do.

    I am hearing it is going to be very close tomorrow, so fingers crossed it will go through. There are some last minute shenanigans going on with the usual suspects, just like the RINOs. The British Conservatives have the CINOs and they are planning some amendment tomorrow to try and screw things up apparently.

    Time will tell, but one great thing about BREXIT, just like the election of President Trump, is how it has exposed all these frauds for what they are, the masks have come off, everyone knows now just how rotten the deep state is in both countries, it is quite something.

    Liked by 9 people

  8. I believe the USMCA is being held up by the Democrats until after the Canadian election on Monday, October 21, 2019. They want to see who wins before moving forward.

    Liked by 1 person

    • littleanniefannie says:

      I believe it may be blackmail for impeachment. Sounds about right for those in Congress who love their bank accounts more than they love our country.
      PS. And then have the nerve to campaign on taxing millionaires and billionaires and government corruption. I would say holier than thou but most worship only their almighty dollar.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. 56packardman says:

    Thank you for this clarifying perspective! 👍
    Once again, VSGPDJT is many steps ahead of the other players and the U.S., as is Trump’s goal, will benefit YUGELY! 😀 It is a marvel to watch this President operate!

    Liked by 4 people

  10. mainecoonman says:

    The deal is not perfect but I can easily live with it.

    Tomorrow a small number of turncoat “conservatives” aided (they hope) by our rogue speaker will attempt to place yet another legal obstacle in its path. As I have said before the people are reaching the absolute limits of their patience*

    * as two extension rebellion climate protestors discovered yesterday when they were hauled off the roof of the subway train they were trying to prevent moving and, as we say over here, given a good shoeing. To quote from a libertarian website – “An interesting example of public order being served by the absence of the police rather than its presence”.

    Liked by 3 people

  11. Lee Moore says:

    I think it’s worth noting the political balance within the UK. Since the UK has been an EU member for 46 years, with EU trade preferenced over trade with anywhere else, the balance of the UK economy is more EU focussed than it would be with a neutral trade policy.

    So leaving the EU (if it ever happens) will slowly begin to reset the UK economy away from its current bias towards the EU. And any “punishment” the EU hands out to the UK will simply accelerate that process. It will become less profitable for UK businesses to pursue EU trade and more profitable for them to pursue non EU trade.

    At present, all the big business and government battalions are lined up to boost UK-EU connections. But as the balance of trade and business tips back towards neutral, or past it if there is “punishment”, inevitably the POLITICAL clout of the EU lobby in the UK will reduce too.

    If it’s roughly 50-50 now, in ten years it’s more likely to be 60-40 in the non EU direction. And so on.

    And also vice versa. If the UK doesn’t escape now, the shackles will get tighter and it’ll be even harder to escape in ten years time.

    Liked by 5 people

    • lydia00 says:

      This is true but a bigger game is afoot. Trying to keep others from leaving, too. The UK is also being made an example. UK is a big financial necessity for the EU. Ahead of France! Most members aren’t an asset but a liability but are easier to manipulate for immigration, etc. Hungary is the one to watch. They threw out Soros’ organizations and are disgusted with the EU.

      Liked by 2 people

    • JohninMK says:

      Spot on. What most people in the UK still have no idea about are the levels of tax applied to and outright blocking of all kinds of goods from outside the EU, especially those that compete with EU producer groups with muscle.

      As well as North America, the Commonwealth countries from the biggest like Australia/New Zealand to the smallest Caribbean island who are all badly hit, will be cheering this deal. Can’t wait for Argentinian/Brazilian beef.

      Fingers crossed.

      Liked by 1 person

  12. alliwantissometruth says:

    While my post isn’t on point with the gist of this thread, something Sundance wrote is essential to understanding how all of this usurpation of the peoples power takes place…

    “Trying to find the details within the U.K-EU Brexit deal is more difficult than finding evidence of a Yeti. The negotiating team secrecy is inherent to the way the elites within the European systems work. Essentially the “betters” rule the proles by hiding the details and relying upon the electorate to “trust” the outlined framework of their elected superiors”

    And that’s exactly the kind of “government” that’s been seeping into our Constitutional Republic here in the States

    Under the guise of representative governance, those we “elect” enter Washington as a representative sent by the people, yet they’re quickly initiated into the cult of the few, becoming part of an oligarchy where secrecy and deception takes the place of open and honest government

    To think a free people allow this outrageous brazenly corrupt usurpation of our right to representative governance is shocking, yet we allow it on a continuing basis. Closed door meetings where “the peoples business” is discussed and voted upon is a complete perversion of our system

    Yet it happens again and again with impunity

    Western ideals of governance have morphed from citizen to serf, and that’s why we find ourselves in the situation we have today

    Liked by 14 people

    • bruzedorange says:

      Your post–and your screen name, alliwantissometruth–underscore the necessity for a fearless fourth estate with moral and intellectual integrity.

      I’ll bet we’ve all wondered if whatever and whoever CTH and “sundance” are behind the scenes is something that could become a model for a future fourth estate in free countries around the world.

      Economic nationalism is going to require both the butressing defense and probing accountability of public true-truth to establish its roots for a run in history.

      Liked by 2 people

    • littleanniefannie says:

      HR1 was done by Lawfare and obviously was the DemocRATs’ main priority. 1st bill passed to allow for the SchittShow we now have going on. This is exactly what they wanted. I wonder how much is embedded in the Brexit docs. Are there things in there that are seemingly innocuous but are more volatile than HR1?
      Can you imagine what might be in there?

      Liked by 1 person

    • Perot Conservative says:

      And they spend 80% of their time in a cubicle, blocks from their official office, at an auto dialer — speaking to big donor after big donor, telling them what they’ll give them.

      Before them is s computer screen saying “Ted: wants more LGBTQ rights” – $10,000. “Mary, Zero Emissions” – $25,000. “Ed, wants Bill XYLMNOP passed – $25,000.”

      I believe it was on 60 Minutes several years back. Disgusting.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. US says:

    Seems a brilliant maneuver by dear President Trump. We can help our brothers from the U.K with a trade deal with US, Mexico and Canada, and if the Germans do not like it they get BMW tariffs from US. Thank you Sundance for your analysis will put the fear of America on the votes of the wobbly British Brexiteers. We have a bottle of Bubbly chilled already.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. sundance says:

    Liked by 4 people

  15. dallasdan says:

    The people in the UK voted for Brexit, but the Parliament refuses to honor the mandate. BJ was smacked down by the globalists when he tried to implement the will of the people. Like in the USA. UK’s version of the]Deep State finds ways to advance their agenda, the public will be damned.

    Liked by 2 people

  16. AntonyG says:

    Boris Johnson is a progressive. Note his team’s response to the idea of them working with the Brexit Party. It was disdainful. Someone who is a climate change, wage gap, hate speech, implicit bias, cultural relativism, multiculturalism, open borders, mass-immigration, militant LGBT+ activism & radical feminism believing/supporting neo-Marxist is not going to work with a populist like Trump.

    Liked by 1 person

    • mainecoonman says:

      It’s not as simple as that. The Brexit Party, while united on this one key issue, is otherwise a very broad political church. As an example Claire Fox, one of it’s 29 MEP’s (Members of the European Parliament), is a former member of the Revolutionary Communist Party. The highly intelligent but allegedly rabidly anti-Semitic ex-MP George Galloway also supports the party although he is not a member.

      Boris is arguably right not to form an alliance, which would involve giving them a free run at many winnable seats. There would be huge risks in having such potential loose cannons in a coalition government.

      Like

    • lydia00 says:

      It’s shocking to hear Tories on their platform for government in parliament. Regular progressives, they are. Boris committed to lowering emissions to 0 by 2050. Just one example. He is big government all the way.

      Like

    • GP says:

      I don’t trust Boris Johnson. And I suspect POTUS doesn’t either-but Trump has to towork with him…so

      Liked by 1 person

      • Fools Gold says:

        It doesn’t matter, Trust President Trump. I do, 💯

        Liked by 1 person

        • De Oppresso Liber says:

          President Trump is using our most powerful weapon besides our MIRV-tipped ICBM’s……the largest, most robust, wealth creating economy on the planet. He is wielding our economic might with the skill of a Jedi Knight and his light saber.

          President Trump can use it either as a hammer to bash people into submission, but he much prefers to use it as an enticement to persuade countries to voluntarily cooperate with us, and enjoy the enormous benefits they can achieve for themselves peacefully.

          Like

  17. Kitty-Kat says:

    Just how much sovereignty they’ve lost is illustrated by all the snarls they have to untangle in order to separate themselves. They are indeed fortunate to have Farage’s leadership, resolve and clarity on their side.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Ross says:

    While I can understand this article is primarily about trade, for the UK voter who is intent on leaving the EU the trade aspects are almost secondary –sovereignty, UK law not being subservient to EU law, regaining control of their fisheries, maintaining control of their defence forces and security services etc etc are more important to them. The trade aspects will work themselves out over time.
    I think from what I have read the voters should be hoping Johnson’s deal is voted down on Saturday. A few think tanks ( including influential conservative ones) are advising MPs to not agree to it.
    I have read that this agreement is actually an international treaty so it locks the UK into things it cannot get out of later.
    If Boris Jonhson wants to be remembered like his hero Churchill he better have a rabbit to pull out of the hat to get an effective “no deal” exit otherwise he will end up on the political scrap heap in the short to medium term.

    Here is the the agreement if anyone wants to read the massive document.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/revised-protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland-included-withdrawal-agreement_en

    Liked by 2 people

    • Perot Conservative says:

      Has Boris buckled?

      Is he known for having less of a spine than Farange?

      If these 2 can’t deliver, is there a third horse to mount?

      Like

  19. Ross says:

    To add to the above comment here is a piece giving views by prominent think tanks.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/10/18/leading-think-tanks-call-mps-reject-defective-brexit-deal/

    This is a summary of some of the issues raised by the Brudges Group ( one of the think tanks)

    “1.Restricts Parliamentary independence
    2. Restricts independent trade policy
    3. Prevents an independent tax policy
    4. No Control on Fishing
    5. and 6. Prevents independent military action
    7. Restricts Foreign Policy
    8. Demands Payment of a sum to be decided by the EU
    9. Replaces one Commission with another
    10. Prevents independent arbitration
    11. Grants EU officials immunity
    12. Imposes a gagging order on the UK13. Leaves the UK with EIB risks but no profits
    14. Imposes EU public procurement rules
    15. Makes the UK a bystander in laws that govern it”

    Why would any MP agree to those points?

    Liked by 3 people

    • bruzedorange says:

      Sundance, y’all have been examining the document. What do you make of the issues/objections cited by the Brudges Group analysis?

      Is TrumpAmerican leverage sufficient to force the EU to yield on enforcing these legal limitations? And in a post-Trump world, might they simply return to enforcing the letter of the law/agreement?

      Liked by 1 person

    • Perot Conservative says:

      No bueno.

      Why not say “Stuff it, Leave”, a few days of celebration, then ink a MASSIVE trade deal with the POTUS??!!!

      Brussels implosion.

      Like

  20. albertus magnus says:

    Great job as usual, Sundance!

    Like

  21. kevin king says:

    The economics is fine. But it’s not what we voted for and it’s not Democracy. No leaver can be satisfied with this. It is a sell-out.

    Liked by 2 people

  22. lydia00 says:

    I do have to wonder about the 1 year transition of being legally tied to EU regulations, foreign policy, etc, etc. That’s a lot of time for pro EU parliament to secure ties while claiming Brexit or extending the debate into perpetuity. After the last 3 years and the sneaky maneuvering of the MP’s, why trust. Their elite in parliament are just as bad as ours boldly going to the EU for secret meetings, using the courts to block the people, etc. And worse, Boris is no Trump, He is Eton and not U.K. first in the same way as Farage as he is “wrong side of the tracks”. I am most disappointed in Rees Mogg. I think Boris is afraid or wantz anything to present

    The refusal to hold a GE before a deal is pivotal. The elites know most voters are relieved and more willing to return to their traditional party. And many Tory leavers are disgusted with their party. They have a good chance of barely a majority in the next GE. And they refuse to align with Brexit party to win a big majority to make a hard Brexit without Bercow. See Rod Liddle article in the Spectator to see the problem. It’s similat to republicans losing 40 house seats in 2018 and winning back the house.

    The EU is brain gaming, too. If they are thrilled,it’s a horrible deal and they know they have their claws in. Don’t believe a word they say about no extension. They don’t need one. It’s chilling what totalitarian thugs they are.
    This is all very tricky

    Liked by 3 people

  23. Pyrthroes says:

    Whenever someone says, “Where do you get all this?” we reply: Read Sundance/CTH, meditate deeply, then go forth and multiply.

    Like

  24. Beenthere says:

    After reading SD’s article—- Louis Vuitton, a French company, is doubly smart to open a factory in TX and to stay out of the fray between GB and EU.

    Like

    • CountryDoc says:

      Excellent point. POTUS is trying to help Britain and Europe, but because he is taking care of the home front first, the U.S. is becoming more attractive to anyone in the world. It may happen that while EU and Britain are fighiting, the spoils they are fighting over disappear and wind up in the now favorable U.S. economy.

      Liked by 1 person

  25. Eastender says:

    Excellent explanation Sundance, thank you for spelling it out so clearly.

    Like

  26. Jaap Titulaer says:

    >> Within the current framework there’s a customs union design similar to a Venn diagram, that consists of Northern Ireland remaining attached to EU tariff rules, and yet the UK is not subject to the same parameters. So there’s three different sets of trade rules in place.

    Sorry but that is incorrect. NI will not be attached to EU tariffs, but to UK tariffs. They will just ensure EU tariffs are levied on goods destined for Ireland (EU) which enters the island via NI (UK) ports. And vice versa.

    Ireland is part of EU and the EU border for customs will be in Irish Sea, covering all of Ireland, including Northern Ireland.
    But UK customs, tariffs and rules apply in Northern Ireland, so essentially all that NI (UK) will notice from this is that their customs officials act on behalf of Ireland (EU) for any goods destined for Ireland. And Irish custom officials due the same for goods destined for NI (UK). And trucks will need to clear at the border (usually they are pre-cleared in EU, mostly automated, to prevent hold-up at border checkpoints).
    Transit customs are fairly common in EU, so this is not new. A similar arrangement is in place between EU countries and (say) Switzerland.

    The reason for that is that the border between the two parts of Ireland can stay open as it is now.
    At least for people.
    Again similar to the border with Switzerland, 3 streams: 1 is people, free transit (unless there are police controls, see to catch a fleeing ), 2. is goods destined for Switzerland and 3 goods in transit (to say Italy). Both 2 & 3 are usually pre-cleared, so they just have to show bills of lading.

    Like

  27. Devil in the Blue Drapes says:

    In “theory” were all the stars to align, it sounds promising, however that’s a huge IF.

    When I saw Boris and drunkard Juncker announce what essentially amounts to “here’s the keys to your shiny new car Mrs Jones, don’t worry if it has an engine, we can discuss that later” BREXIT.

    That Juncker was sober and could crack a smile isn’t confidence inducing.

    Nay, there’s a lot that the brits should be wary of a “To be determined” BREXIT.

    OTOH, I guess they can get excited their bananas don’t have to adhere to curvature requirements and cantaloupes can exceed circumference requirements.

    As to Ireland, many US corps had already located their headquarters there for the low tax rates. Would they follow in setting up manufacturing as well?

    Another thing I don’t understand as pertains to the NHS and any trade agreement w/US. I know Boris commented on this during G20, that NHS not be included in any deal, Trump seemed less committed. Perhaps someone could explain this here, as I don’t know enough to understand the importance.

    Just imagine the degree to which the entire global cabal rests on the shoulders of one man, DJT, and what this truly means…. the freedom derived from sovereign nations, in which the ppl determine their destiny v rule by Communist China and the elites.

    I hope the brits can get out from under EU’s boot, and I fervently pray for Pres Trump’s protection, sustained strength, and determination as we all weather the evil forces against us.

    Like

  28. icthematrix says:

    As soon as I read that the EU was happy with the proposed deal, I suspected it was a bad one for true Brexit. What the hell happened to Johnson? I get the potential leverage points so well pointed out by Sundance, but too many choke holds on British independence will not achieve their objectives.

    Liked by 2 people

  29. L4grasshopper says:

    This is why, despite the flaws inherent within the UK-EU Brexit agreement, it would be in the best interests of the U.K. to vote in support of the current deal and get out.
    ====
    I thought that the EU has declared no more extensions.

    If true, then if this deal doesn’t pass Parliament, won’t the U.K. do a “hard Brexit “ on 31 Oct?

    And if so, is not THAT, long term, preferable to this overly complex mess of an agreement?

    Liked by 1 person

  30. Sentient says:

    Just tell the EU you’re out, there’s no deal, we’re not giving you any money and F*** off.

    Like

  31. Perot Conservative says:

    Why doesn’t he just say “stuff it”, and exit with no deal?

    I asked this once before, forgive me ic it was answered.

    Canadian Election Question: can Trudeau win with a lesser vote count – say 32% to 34% – if his 32% vote count combines with 2 additional liberal parties like the Greens – to hold a 51% or 55% majority?

    I can forsee a USMCA Limbo for a year while we await the election. POTUS should use it like Thor’s hammer.

    – USMCA – blocked
    – Infrastructure deal – blocked
    – Immigration reform – blocked
    – Border security – blocked (workaround)

    Additionally, short term, GM, Boeing, and China non-ag purchases have been a short term drag on GDP. I REALLY HOPE for a strong Q3 GDP. Atlanta Fed Now and some Wall Street sources are estimating from 1.9% to 2.2%, but their calculations seem lazy and superficial.

    Like

  32. TheTorch says:

    Interesting developments…

    One of the remainers in Parliament Nicholas Soames, apparently will be voting for the deal and will not be supporting the Letwin amendment.

    This could be important. If a few remainers peel off the deal will pass.

    Now why would a remainer support a deal to leave the EU that they do not want. SIMPLE – because if the deal does not pass then the possibility of a NO DEAL becomes more of a reality, and that is a remainers worst nightmare.

    It could be that a few of them at least realize the gravity of the situation they are now in, and are opting for something they don’t want, but at least avoids a NO DEAL which they fear more than anything.

    interesting times…

    Like

    • TheTorch says:

      Good grief… the DUP has supported the Letwin amendment, which means it has passed, otherwise it would of failed. This means the CINO’s amendment has been passed!

      There can be no vote for the deal today, as this amendment is an attempt to delay BREXIT.

      Only silver lining, is that will make NO DEAL more possible,as if they vote against the DEAL next week, the 31st deadline is approaching fast. This is why the DUP supported it, they want NO DEAL, rather than the DEAL.

      What a mess…

      Like

  33. Perot Conservative says:

    How many of the hundreds of London banks have their fingers in the illegal money transfers of Kerry, Biden, Pelosi, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Clintons, etc.?

    Like

  34. TheTorch says:

    Good grief. They have passed the Letwin Amendment put forward by the CINO’s!

    In a nutshell this means that the vote for the deal can not progress today.

    So now the deal will need to be voted on some time next week.

    What a mess.

    BUT the CINO’s may of been to clever by half with this, as inadvertently, they will now be facing a vote for the deal next week, and if it does not pass, then we are heading for NO DEAL…

    Like

    • Carrie says:

      Just reading this too- it’s just unbelievable! Those globalists are trying everything they can! I’m really hoping it is No Deal in the end.

      Like

  35. Josh Taylor says:

    The UK parliament is taking the hit by asking for an extension before the vote which Boris will not do. The agreement w the EU takes the heat off the EUs back and gives them the win. The no deal looks like the only way bc now the UK parliament will drag it out.

    Like

  36. Unsk says:

    Some say Boris by Law must now ask for an extension. But what if he asks for an extension with some unpalatable ( to the EU) conditions?
    Then we would have a No-Deal Brexit on Halloween. Which some say BoJo wanted all along.
    Trick or Treat Remainers!

    Liked by 2 people

  37. Kitty-Kat says:

    Imo, if there’s ever a clean break between EU and the United Kingdom, it will be 99.9 per cent due to the tenacious work of Nigel Farage who has predicted with scary accuracy how each step of the way how each step would unfold.

    Like

  38. Kitty-Kat says:

    Farage has been predicting (and still is, as per yesterday) an upcoming election in which the new Clean Break Brexit party, with him as leader, competes against the Conservatives and Labour and wins a huge super majority.

    I don’t think he is going to run as party leader to fulfill personal ambition; I believe he isn’t all that keen about taking on the task of being PM, but is doing it for love of country, to fully restore the UK’s full sovereignty.

    Ringo Starr, current resident of USA, is pro Brexit.

    Like

  39. Fools Gold says:

    Thanks for the explaining this Sundance! Of course we all already know queer Nancy will never bring USMCA to vote as long as her queer team are in-place. I guess we’ll all find out if she can get away with the fake dance or whether her hair flames bigly in 2020.

    Like

  40. railer says:

    Boris Johnson is part of the globalist class. The London banksters support him. The banksters have to submit to the EUSSR in order to thrive. The EUSSR won’t let the banksters thrive unless they cow the British people and destroy their sovereignty. British sovereignty will now pass away forever.

    Farage has this exactly right.

    Like

  41. lorigoldsmith says:

    The ideology of the left and the globalist seem to be, that in order to save democracy, you MUST destroy democracy?
    Case in point; Brexit and the election of Donald J Trump. The people voted. The globalist and the left dod not like the results. So… they are trying to destroy Yrump

    Liked by 1 person

    • lorigoldsmith says:

      …Destroy Trump by any means necessary. The end justfies the means!
      All the while shouting, protesting and virtue signaling that “They” are fighting for “Democracy”.
      Today, these same people are doing the exact same thing in the UK.
      Hilarious! Watching the interviews of those protesters saying they are marching for “Democracy” and when the reporters point out that Brexit, was voted on in 2016 and the people voted for Brexit. What do they say… That’s why they need another vote. Seriously?

      Like

  42. jeans2nd says:

    There is another, positive, aspect to all this outlined above.

    England used to be a maritime/naval power, ruler of the high seas. The merchant ships were the first ships attacked in the World Wars.
    Now, not-so-much. England has lost its navy.

    With Brexit, and a new US-UK trade deal, England would have a need to once again build up their maritime abilities, thus increasing England’s national security.
    Airplanes are nice, but nothing transports large amounts of goods like a good ship.

    Liked by 1 person

  43. OldSaltUSNR says:

    It kind of looks like Northern Ireland is attempting to position itself (via trade and tariff manipulation) as the gate between the E.U., and UK, the same way that the UK could be that gateway between the E.U. and North American markets.

    Also, all of Sundance’s calculations go sideways if the newly independent UK leverages all of the E.U. style regulations and VAT’s to boost it’s socialist state. The UK will not get significant, sustainable economic growth until it copies “Trump’s America”, i.e. huge deregulation and privatization, to remove the government’s fetters from the UK economy.

    Liked by 1 person

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