The headlines are once again examples of an ideological media. “Stunning”, “surprising”, “unexpected”, etc. However, far from the headline ideology; in a result that is splendidly falling into place for a much more consequential geopolitical landscape; things are going swimmingly…
Reuters Headline: “India’s Modi stuns opposition with huge election win”
NEW DELHI/AYODHYA (Reuters) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scored a dramatic election victory on Thursday, putting his Hindu nationalist party on course to increase its majority on a mandate of business-friendly policies and a tough stand on national security.
His re-election reinforces a global trend of right-wing populists sweeping to victory, from the United States to Brazil and Italy, often after adopting harsh positions on protectionism, immigration and defense.
Official data from the Election Commission showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party ahead in 302 of the 542 seats up for grabs, up from the 282 it won in 2014 and more than the 272 seats needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.
That would give his party the first back-to-back majority for a single party since 1984. Votes will be fully counted by Friday morning.
Modi was showered with rose petals by some of the thousands of cheering supporters who waited for hours in a thunderstorm for his arrival at party headquarters on Thursday evening. (read more)
Yes Alice, the planets have aligned. It is remarkable how each event falls exactly into the place needed for President Donald J Trump. Truly,… almost divinely inspired.
The BRIC economic alliance (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has been disassembled. Nationalist/populist Brazil and nationalist/populist India are now more aligned with nationalist/populist Trump. China and Russia are bleeding cash to retain influence. Economic security is national security. Things are going swimmingly.
Reminder: All of the geopolitical indicators are present…. and it is important to remember that historic trilateral Buenos Aires summit between President Trump, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and India’s Prime Minister Modi.
Taken in totality with the November 2017 “Golden Ticket” tour of Asia, it looks like President Trump structured two facets of the Indo-Pacific alliance, as far back as 2017, to be a hedge against China.
It appears that President Trump started his administration with a plan for a broad alliance of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) to replace the U.S. economic engagement with China. More specifically, it appears to me that President Trump is using Japan as the fulcrum, and repaying Shinzo Abe by working with Modi (India) to open up the India economy.
There’s a similar precedent for this. Historically, think about how the U.S. helped Canada by using the scale of the U.S. economy to open trade doors, and then leveraging the engaged country to also permit Canadian benefit (entry).
It looks like President Trump is using the ASEAN and Indo-Pacific alliance as the hedge against China. Japan is key for this to work; with support from Vietnam, S-Korea, Philippines etc; and then Trump repays Japan by opening up the U.S. for India exports, and in turn India opens for Japanese imports.
♦Economic security is national security. ♦The KORUS (South Korea-U.S.) trade deal was already reached last year. ♦Japan essentially controls the TPP group. ♦A new trilateral alliance resets global supply chains (disrupting One Belt/One Road); and yet retains the value of regional manufacturing (Vietnam, Philippines, S-Korea, etc).
If my spidey-sense is correct, Shinzo Abe will be very open to Trump’s unilateral trade requests (perhaps Monday announcement) because Abe sees an enlarging Japanese GDP through new accessibility to India. It’s a win-win-win.
Trump opens up for India (Indo-Pacific).
India opens up for Japan (Indo-Pacficic).
Japan increases investment in U.S.A. [(U.S-Japan trade agreement); and with new focus on national security, an expanded Japanese GDP permits security purchases from U.S.A.]
Meanwhile, China is sad panda.