China Set to Announce Weakest Economic Growth in Almost 30 Years….

The baseline when reviewing economic data from China is to remember the entire economy is controlled by the communist central government.  If they say the economy is “less strong” than previously expected, generally we can anticipate the truth is much worse.

The second aspect to remember is that many U.S. manufacturers made anticipatory advanced purchases, building up inventory ahead of possible tariffs, in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2018.  Those advance purchases can amplify any manufacturing slow down.

BEIJING (Reuters) – China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.

Growing signs of weakness in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

Chinese policymakers have pledged more support for the economy this year to reduce the risk of massive job losses, but they have ruled out a “flood” of stimulus like that which Beijing has unleashed in the past, which quickly juiced growth rates but left a mountain of debt.  (read more)

China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but it is also very narrow.  There is not enough internal domestic consumer activity to sustain their production.  As a direct result any manufacturing slowdown has a much more severe impact on their economy; as compared to a more balanced economy.

If other nations slow down their purchases of Chinese products, the Chinese export driven economy starts to contract.  If multiple nations simultaneously begin purchasing less from China, the current status, the Bejing economy shrinks much faster than all others.  A manufacturing dependency is the Chinese weakness. Millions of Chinese workers can be put out of work very quickly.

Some factories in Guangdong – China’s export hub – have shut earlier than usual ahead of the long Lunar New Year holiday as the tariff war with the United States curtails orders. Others are suspending production lines and cutting back on workers’ hours.

If the trade war drags on, some migrant workers may not have jobs to return to.

Trade negotiators are facing an early March deadline and Washington has threatened to sharply hike tariffs if there are no substantial signs of progress. (more)

March 1st is the deadline imposed by President Trump, Secretary Ross and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer.  If the U.S. and China are not close to concrete terms for a deal, the U.S. will execute a comprehensive round of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese imports.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wants actionable written trade contracts, with structured and detailed immediate Chinese purchase agreements.  At the direction of President Trump, Lighthizer will not settle for promises or outlines to further delay tariff execution.

NOTE: This timeline is likely why President Trump agreed to the meeting with North Korea Chairman Kim Jong-un at the end of February.  The media are oblivious to this aspect of the negotiations.

By agreeing to another meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim (DPRK), the U.S. team has frozen the hidden and cunning Chinese/N.Korea leverage tactic in place for a month-and-a-half….. Meanwhile the U.S. and Chinese negotiators continue to discuss open trade terms unimpeded by the geopolitics.

I would not necessarily commit to thinking a Trump-Kim Summit 2.0 will take place.  However, the potential for the summit gives Team USA expanded elbow room.   The timing of the summit, when contrast with the March 1st Beijing deadline, means we could see a postponement of the Trump/Kim summit happening immediately before President Trump lets the massive tariff hammer drop.

Keep an eye on the pre-talk surrounding the summit; we may discover indicators as to how Trump is playing this out.  However, remember, the Red Dragon will also be looking for those signals… so it is likely POTUS Trump will closely guard his intent.

Chairman Xi is using Chairman Kim… and President Trump knows Xi is using Kim…. and Xi knows, Trump knows, Xi is using Kim…. and Trump knows that Xi knows that Kim knows he is being used.

And so the dance continues…

This entry was posted in Auto Sector, Big Government, China, Decepticons, Deep State, India, Japan, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

256 Responses to China Set to Announce Weakest Economic Growth in Almost 30 Years….

  1. Swanzinator says:

    Checkmate, Mr. Xi!!

    Liked by 11 people

  2. 335blues says:

    Don’t discount that there are many people
    like me who are trying their best to avoid
    buying items “made in china”. For several years now I always actively look for “made in USA”, and only buy chinese products when forced to.
    IMO, communist china is the biggest force
    for evil in the world today.

    Liked by 55 people

  3. Bort says:

    I don’t believe our own government’s data and I certainly don’t believe any Chinese data.

    Liked by 4 people

    • cripto says:

      Well here is an example of China’s data:
      ”经最终核实,2017年,GDP现价总量为820754亿元,比初步核算数减少了6367亿元” (nbs cuts 600bn from 2017 GDP, so that this 2018 growth target can be reached?)

      “Usually GDP figures are revised *UP* at this time (year later), this is indeed unusual. 2017 agriculture revised down almost 5%, accounts for half! (But there was an Ag. Census, so maybe OK?) Manufacturing also revised down almost 1% most of the rest.”

      “China allows “some fluctuations in economic growth”…”but a drastic slowdown can not happen”, said Premier LiKeqiang in the third economy-focused meeting he chaired in three days. ”

      The data for 2018 to be released 10am (10pm for stateside).

      Liked by 4 people

      • cripto says:

        Trust me. Major modern and large factories are very hard hit and desperate for orders. Saw one in Xiamen a few weeks ago. Barely functioning hardly any workers on the floor and that is well before ‘Golden Week’ when everyone goes home or travels.

        Liked by 6 people

      • jeans2nd says:

        Word is, China is actually in a recession with possibly a negative growth, workers are being fired not laid off. Sources are only word-of-mouth through those in Hong Kong, etc.
        One Chinese professor actually wrote about it. Prof has been silenced and not seen for a while.

        Liked by 7 people

        • cripto says:

          You mean Xiang Songzuo and his speech in Dec.2018. I think you may have him confused with another economist, Yang Shaozheng (杨绍政), who did lose his job for analyzing the costs of the CCP for taxpayers.

          Here is a translation and video that went viral. It was censored in China , but still on youtube.

          Liked by 4 people

        • annieoakley says:

          How many crummy toasters, thin, stretchy T-shirts, flashlights that go bad every other month, coffee makers that last a year or two and cost 50-60 dollars do they expect us to buy? And then the chinese send over fentanyl to Mexico to bring into the US that will kill off a lot of the people in the US that buy their cheap, flimsy tshirts, scatter rugs, plastic tubs in the first place? Who will buy the chinese crap when there is no one left to buy anything.

          Liked by 5 people

          • meow4me2 says:

            Quadruple like! I don’t want cheap crappy stuff that breaks or falls apart a few months later. That’s not saving me money in the long run. Give me good quality American made products!

            Liked by 6 people

        • Dutchman says:

          Read an article the other day, I THINK it was AmericanThinker?

          It was saying Chinese economy was,in SERIOUS trouble, BEFORE DJT and tariffs, and that Gov. turn to MORE control, rather than less, which only aggravated matters.

          They are in BIG trouble, he’s taken the Nork gambit off the table, impeachment isn’t going to happen in time to help China, and being unsuccesful wouldn’t help China anyway.

          They REALLY need an agreement, must have.
          Meanwhile, PDJT doesn’t NEED an agreement, he can walk away, with tariffs he actually has a built in incentive for him to walk away.

          So, China has to give him an incentive worth 250Billion $, or whatever continueing the current tariffs, and adding in the new,ones, total, just to be EVEN. So, what ELSE are you going to offer me, to give me a reason to make a deal?

          Liked by 2 people

      • POTUS and our Trading Partners negotiating Bilateral Trade Deals with us will VERY soon be ratcheting up Tariffs on China’s Exports, which will destroy China’s Export Profitability and exfiltrate their Currency Reserves as the Communist Party scrambles to subsidize exporters to keep their Manufacturing-Driven Economy afloat. 🤮

        Workers who went home for their annual break are gonna be FURIOUS when there’s no job to go back to … as industrialized countries STOP BUYING CHINESE to protect or resuscitate their own industries. 🤯

        Industrial countries then realize they’ve got to deport Chinese workers in high tech, defense and manufacturing industries to protect their IP. Ruh-roh. 😱

        Those couries then realize theyve got to deport Chinese students and “researchers” who’ve been looting their university IP, too. 🤬

        Options for President Xi: ☠️
        • Pay them welfare at a FRACTION of what they formerly made.
        • Send factory workers to farm the fields for NOTHING like Chairman Mao did.
        • Send them to Africa to DISPLACE African workers in mining and farming.
        • Expand China’s western-province FORCED LABOR concentration camps.
        • Kill off the disgruntled TENS of MILLIONS like Xi’s predecessor Chairman Mao.

        Liked by 2 people

  4. Mike says:


    Liked by 2 people

  5. Elric VIII says:

    I love it when a plan comes together!

    Liked by 5 people

  6. Mark L. says:

    Lets make a deal

    Liked by 1 person

  7. JustTheFactsMa'am says:

    President Trump is correct in righting the trade wongs of the past. 🙂

    However, these things are leading to global instability as the globalist agenda falters.

    This means war, historically. Amirite?

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Fools Gold says:

    I suppose Xi would be smart to not roll out 1T for shovel ready jobs anytime soon…😝

    Liked by 3 people

  9. Michael says:

    Not on board with everything this administration does but I haven’t had a President since Ronald Reagan. My dad wouldn’t talk to me for six months after I voted for Reagan. My dad is now a Trumpster. I’ll continue to cling to my guns and religion putting my faith in God but keeping my powder dry. FTW and China too.

    Liked by 4 people

  10. TwoLaine says:

    We need tariffs for Congress. No work, we tariff your pay. Get the job done, we remove the tariff. Step out of line again, and we ratchet it up again until the behavior is modified. Deadlines are deadlines, not suggestions. Budgets are budgets. Get one!

    Liked by 11 people

  11. Suzanne says:

    AWWWWWW I feel so badly for them.
    No I don’t.

    Liked by 4 people

  12. Monticello says:

    China which has generated a third of world growth in the past decade……..

    By picking our pockets!

    Liked by 11 people

  13. GB Bari says:

    I am reposting a link to an article that I found quite eye-opening about China’s internal struggles with its economy and the government’s role.

    It is written by Prof. Xiang Songzuo of Renmin University School of Finance and former chief economist of China Agriculture Bank….in other words, a qualified Chinese insider.

    The article is a bit long, so I recommend that you do what you have to do to get through it – it is worth your time. When I read it, I enlarged the font in my browser, and used “Reader View, etc. to make it easier on the old eyeballs.. Takes about 1/2 hour to get through.

    It is entitled: “A Great Shift Unseen Over The Last Forty Years

    Liked by 6 people

    • GB Bari says:

      And as a followup to that article, ZeroHedge ran this on January 5th:

      Although I didn’t catch in the ZH article if the professor actually WAS censored.

      Liked by 3 people

    • MIKE says:

      I read it when you posted it the other night, GB. It was a good read and well presented.
      Thanks for that gem.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Maquis says:

      From the article:
      “My own reflection has reached its conclusion: The problem with the Chinese economy is no longer speed or quantity, but quality.”

      Ya think?

      Liked by 2 people

      • One of the natural side effects of diminishing the importance of humanity in favor of materialism and secular interests is this, the lazy manufacturing of goods for humans. You will find excellence only in the most expensive for the elites, who naturally see no problem with diminished quality since in their bubble they do not see it.

        When human life becomes secondary and of even less importance this is a natural outcome and since the bulk of society are NOT the 1% this will happen.

        As for China’s overpopulation: That enormous country, just like America, has natural resources to spare that would, when allowing people to be self-sufficient, build their economy far more than the artificial development of an atheist, elitist Satan worshiping movement…and I make no apologies for linking them to Lucifer. There is only good and evil and if you try to defend communism for any good you are a brainwashed puppet for it.


  14. Rhoda R says:

    Ad Xi is promising to buy billions of dollars worth of stuff from the US. I wonder just how he plans to do that.

    Liked by 3 people

    • LafnH20 says:

      He prolly OWNS the companies.
      And gets a “Special Volume Discount”.

      Might pull a reverse NAFTA…
      repackage it and send back thru the loop.
      Just reverse engineer it and send over what’s NOT on the Tariffs List.

      It is for His benefit.

      Liked by 2 people

      • WSB says:

        Smithfield Ham…how does that one work?

        Liked by 1 person

        • LafnH20 says:

          I was just talking with a friend about Smithfield today, WSB.

          They asked a question that hadn’t occurred to me to even ponder.

          Did China’s purchase of Smithfield cause the “Bacon Bacon Bacon…Everything with Bacon” craze?

          Disclaimer… Love Bacon!

          Liked by 1 person

          • WSB says:

            LafnH2O, bacon craze being one thing. LOL!

            However, Smithfield is now a Chinese company doing business in the US. So is that now considered a US tariffed item if shipped back to China? Or is it a Chinese item not tariffed being sold in the US?

            All I know, is that I will no longer buy Smithfield at all, just because the Chinese always cheat and ruin everything they touch. I would never trust anything coming out of Smithfield, even if we hear the USDA backs everything they do in the US.

            Total boycott. Sugardale bacon is so much better anyway.


            • LafnH20 says:

              Good questions.
              Best answered by Our Wilburine!! Lol


              A good article… with lots of information.
              As with all articles with lots of info…
              Might take a lot of time… to digest.
              There are sections that go into what is a Tariff..
              And what is a “Retaliatory Tariff”.
              The back and forth.. as it were.

              From what I have gathered elsewhere, China “Proposed” 25% on Pork imported from the U.S.”
              If that % is more or less than the U.S. tariff on Pork imports from China… or a “Break even %” to nullify the tariff… dunno.

              Like you, I no longer consider Smithfield products.
              I know a local farmer who provides excellent Beef, Poultry and Pork products!!
              Drops it off at the Home Place…
              Now THAT… Is customer Service!

              Liked by 2 people

          • montanamel says:

            You have to remember….China can NOT feed themselves even now….way to many rice bowls vs acres… This is part of their reason to be over in Africa…Make some direct purchases of vast land tracts….but, the real key were those “loans” that were in the Billions of USD – to 2-bit dictators’ that don’t have a tin-pot to call their own…when they default on the loans (like some are already doing)…guess what “resource” our panda demands as redress?… FOOD is near the top of the list…then raw minerals.
            About 10-15 yr ago, China “bought” around 70 sections of farm land down in Western Idaho…they set up dorms and mess halls…imported their OWN workforce and China tractors….started growing food….Guess where it’s sold?… Every wonder what goes in those empty SeaLand containers when they get sent back to China??…of course, they are labeled COSCO (similar to COSTCO, eh?)…on the sides… Check-6


        • LafnH20 says:

          From the article…

          A boost in exports by Smithfield could put upward pressure on U.S. pork prices, Graves said.

          Smacks of SD’s “Exfiltration of Wealth” discussions.

          Liked by 1 person

        • LafnH20 says:

          From SD’ s discussion thread…

          In highly developed nations this multinational corporate process requires the corporation to purchase the domestic political process, the approval, within individual nations allowing the exploitation.  As such, their lobbyists pay hundreds of millions to politicians for changes in policies and regulations one sector or industry at a time.

          Wonder WHO … Which Politician/Agency Head signed off on Smithfield??

          And WHAT policies were “Changed” to facilitate the sale?

          Liked by 3 people

          • WSB says:

            This is what is so troubling.

            Since I have worked with the Chinese through many different projects in many years, I have not even bothered to do the research.

            I just know, the Chinese will ruin everything in their path. Pork products are not one sector I wish to test.


          • Dutchman says:

            Who? Thats easy; EVERYBODY, pre-Trump. Thats why EVERYBODY is against him. Republicans, Democrats, Presidents and Congress ALL took $, to look the other way, grease the regulatory process, whatever.

            In laws, sons wives are gifted with sweetheart deals; actually, you don’t need to buy EVERYBODY in Congtess, just the leadership, and a few key committee chairs.

            The gang of eight, and perhaps eight more, is enough to control Congress.

            As for Presidents, their advisors are who you need to control. Again, perhaps eight or ten people.

            Scary how small a # of people you would need to control, to control our government.

            Liked by 2 people

        • cripto says:

          Try to look up A2’s many comments on what he called ‘Porkgate’. Includes Smithfield.

          Liked by 1 person

    • I think that Xi is smarter than his communist administrators. He also plays things close to his chest. He, like Trump, may have a dangerous position among his own government.

      I am deciding to give him the benefit of the doubt…with the provision that I could be mistakenly generous. But Trump likes him and that gives me pause.

      Liked by 1 person

  15. Donna in Oregon says:

    Celebrating Inauguration Day…for the past two years!!!!!

    American Revival: 70 Ways President Trump Has Changed the Nation Over the Past Two Years

    Favorite Chinese changes here:

    Trade War with China
    Ending TPP

    Liked by 9 people

  16. Mncpo(ret) says:

    The dance is wonderful. It’s astonishing what VSGPDT has accomplished in such a short time! Xi is “President/Chairman” for life. He’s got to be seriously thinking exactly how long that will be if he crashes their economy. This is, literally, a life or death situation for him. Very interesting. Thank you Sundance for the further understanding of the dance.

    Liked by 7 people

  17. chojun says:

    There’s an aspect to this –

    Central banks throughout Europe have invested in China’s Belt/Road initiative, hoping to be the beneficiaries of a massive logistics network that delivers Chinese finished goods throughout most of the world.

    If these finished goods never materialize, or are delayed, then these European banks are going to be left holding notes that are, if not junk-rated, then next to it.

    I don’t think that people yet realize how President Trump, by re-balancing trade and re-establishing a manufacturing/production base here in the United States, has single-handedly foiled a worldwide economic depression that likely would’ve rivaled or even surpassed the ’08 Great Recession.

    China, in it’s fever-pitched quest for Superpower status, almost was allowed to establish itself as the worlds premier manufacturing economy which was propped up by Communist central planning/central banking shenanigans.

    Trump will *NEVER* get the credit he deserves for rescuing everyone from this.

    I suspect he will curry favor with Xi and the Communist Party by allowing the Chinese economy to gracefully deflate and normalize in a somewhat controlled manner.

    Liked by 8 people

  18. JohnCarlson says:

    “The baseline when reviewing economic data from China is to remember the entire economy is controlled by the communist central government. If they say the economy is “less strong” than previously expected, generally we can anticipate the truth is much worse.”

    Rather like the MSM/DEMS ‘reporting’ on RBG’s health or lack of same.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. Charlie says:

    Will companies who moved business’ to China pay the piper too?
    Many return but aren’t they complicit in trying to destroy America?
    They were comfortable leaving America unprotected, stripped of sources.

    Liked by 3 people

  20. emet says:

    We have an interesting situation with President Trump wanting stronger relations with Taiwan, which is somewhat governed by the ambiguous Taiwan Relations Act, and POTUS pointing out the illogic of NATO protecting Germany, while German purchases of Russian energy strengthen Russia. In fact, the powerful and troubling PRC could not have developed without help from Taiwan. They created the monster, in great part, and they continue to feed the monster with heavy investment and tech assistance.
    Of course Taiwan has been fooling the US for decades in order to get billions of dollars in aid, which the wealthy elite invested in the PRC. Their strategy is called “playing the red face” (唱紅臉). Red face are goodguys, white face bad. So, the US has protected Toaiwan against the villianous whiteface PRC for decades, while heavy Taiwan investment and assistance in the PRC has resulted in a powerful enemy to the US, and a threat to many other nations. The whole scam actually started in WW2, with Chiang Kai Shek’s extended family stealing everything they could, including massive US aid which was supposed to help defeat Japan. At the end of the War, the Chiang/Soong family were the richest in the world. Those connected to the KMT also did well, and all the wealth went to Taiwan or was invested or hidden. After the Cultural Revolution, China approached wealthy Mainland Chinese families living on Taiwan (外 省人), and invited investment and asked for technical help. So when do we finally wise up? And do we really want to fight the PRC over Taiwan?

    Liked by 4 people

  21. Shop says:

    If anyone wants to know the reality of Chairman for Life Xi, then they should read this by Australian John Garnaut. Xi’s China is the successor of Stalin’s Soviet Union & Mao’s China. They are the opposing force to western constitutional liberalism.

    “Now, sixty years on, we’re seeing Xi making his claim to be the true Revolutionary Successor of Mao.

    Xi’s language of “party purity”; “criticism and self-criticism”; “the mass line”; his obsession with “unity”; his attacks on elements of “hostile Western liberalism”, “constitutionalism” and other variants of ideological “subversion” – this is all Marxism-Leninism as interpreted by Stalin as interpreted by Mao.

    This is the language that the Deep Red princelings spoke when they got together and occasionally when I interviewed them and crashed their gatherings in the lead up to the 18th Party Congress.

    And this was how Xi spoke after the 18th Party Congress:

    ‘‘To dismiss the history of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Communist Party, to dismiss Lenin and Stalin, and to dismiss everything else is to engage in historic nihilism, and it confuses our thoughts and undermines the party’s organizations on all levels.’’

    Today, the utopian destination has to be maintained, however absurd it seems, in order to justify the brutal means of getting there. Xi has inserted a couple of interim goals – for those who lack revolutionary patience – but the underlying Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist logic remains the same.

    This is the logic of his ever-deepening purge of peers who keep getting in the way.

    The purge of the princeling challenger Bo Xilai; the security chief Zhou Yongkang; the two vice chairs of the PLA Central Military Commission Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong; the Youth League fixer Ling Jihua; the potential successor Sun Zhengcai just a fortnight ago.

    None of this is personal. It’s dialectical. And inevitable.

    It’s pushing and accelerating China’s journey along the inexorable corkscrew-shaped course of history.

    “History needs to pushed along its dialectical course,” said Xi, in his speech to mark the party’s 95th birthday in 2015. “History always moves forward and it never waits for all those who hesitate.”

    The same logic applies outside the party as within.

    “The decadent culture of the capitalist class and feudalistic society must be opposed,” said the authoritative Guangming Daily, expanding on another of Xi’s speeches.

    The essence of Maoism and Stalinism is perpetual struggle. This is the antidote to the calcification and putrefaction that has destroyed every previous dynasty, dictatorship and empire. This is why Xi and his Red Successor peers believe that Maoism and Stalinism is still highly relevant today. Not just relevant, but existential.

    Xi has set in motion a purification project – a war against the forces of counter-revolution – that has no end point because the notional utopian destination of perfect communism will always be kicked a little further down the road.

    Liked by 4 people

  22. Monticello says:

    It’s hell to become aware that we, the USA, funded Communism and helped create our own worst for in the world today.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Monticello says:



    • Shop says:

      The UniParty and their allies in Wall St & multi-national corporations in pursuit of their own greed and with the symbiotic relationship between big government and big business, have created not only a major economic competitor but also an ideological & military adversary antithetical to our values of constitutional liberalism.

      China is the real enemy of the west. Yet, instead of working with Putin’s Russia we vilify them.

      Liked by 2 people

  23. Latina says:

    China is losing it’s dominate.

    A new global alliance is forming. Nationalist countries, US, Brazil, Israel, Poland, Chile, Colombia, Hungary and others against Russia, Iran, China, Cuba, Venezuela and others

    Liked by 1 person

  24. nuke9101 says:

    What is that I buy from china and can only buy from China? Oh, and I need to buy it now. once you answer that truthfully …you will understand it aint a lot and it aint necessary …in other words its deferrable or discretionary in nature…or can be made elsewhere.

    name a single brand or trademarked product you admire from china? name a product that manufactured in china that was also designed or developed there (besides a land mine) ? not a lot..and there lies their problem….them mostly make for us, what we want them to make for us …not the other way around….its not like the Chinese innovate and have the pulse of the US consumer under their thumb like Madison avenue….its just that they have slave labor, they pollute a lot…make their products cheap to make there….that’s it.

    Liked by 2 people

  25. Latina says:

    The fact that sellers in China can ship packages to my doorstep for less than an American company can ship across town is something that should also be considered when we talk about free trade. Currently, the Post Office charges China less to deliver a package from China into the U.S. than it charges a U.S. business or customer to deliver a similar size package within the 48 states. This means our post office is losing money on every package it delivers from China and passes the cost on to its American customers and U.S. taxpayers. More on this subject search for article below.

    “Postal Rate Break” Feeds Into Fair Trade Issue!

    Liked by 8 people

  26. Doug Amos says:

    The major Canadian papers ran editorials on the weekend about how Trudeau misread Xi; how China had Canada in its grip and there was no way it could wriggle out. Just 2 short years and 2 short months ago Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton had the United States of America in exactly the same position as their northern neighbors. We all know why they do not.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. Realist says:

    Currency manipulating, Dissidents killing, Minorities Persecuting, Technology stealing, African assets stripping, Militaristically Expansionist, Electronically embedded in consumer and Electronics Networks spying China is the worlds biggest threat,

    Liked by 2 people

  28. Latina says:

    Democracy: Two wolves and a lamb vote on what’s for dinner.

    Liberty: Well-armed lamb contesting the vote.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. RJones says:

    The actual numbers are a little puzzling to me. The trade deficit looks to be about $300-500bn of a $12.5t GDP. No idea whether the call it $400b deficit is before or after they buy our treasuries or other investments. But a few questions:

    1/ Does a trade deficit of ~3% of GDP really drive overall GDP growth in some outsized way? I take it by China’s actions there is a big impact, but the numbers suggest they should be able to make it up over time somewhere else. Ideally at least.

    2/ Do they have cards to play with their stash of treasuries? They don’t have to dump them en-masse. They just have to sell enough that demand for new treasuries is affected sufficiently to drive up interest rates. As we’ve seen with the Fed moves, small changes in these rates inflict substantial pain in terms of deficit increases.

    3/ The most critical question is about strategic engagement with the Chinese. The Chinese have been asking if Trump can accept yes for an answer on a trade deal. Do we really want a deal if they continue to bully neighbors, militarize the S China Sea, and inflict economic colonialism on the 3rd world? Do we really want to feed that growing dragon, or would we be smarter to accept some pain to stunt its growth?

    Liked by 1 person

    • WSB says:

      I cannot make any sense out of their numbers, plus their banks throwing money at various sectors to prop them up. All Kabuki.

      I would just stay away from any investment linked to China. Even retail. I realized that the numbers looked good for retail this last Cnristmas until we all realized that retailers bought a LOT more inventory from China prior to the tariff impact. Lesson well learned and sold prior to the Christmas announcements.

      But no one can ever rely on Chinese accounting. Oxymoron.

      Liked by 1 person

      • WSB says:

        Oh grrrrrr…Christmas! Tablet tar.


      • lemmus1 says:

        They have entire cities the size of Denver, newly built over the last decade, with less than 2% occupancy – all carried on the books of state-owned corporations as assets. Talk about a real estate bubble!

        Liked by 3 people

        • WSB says:

          lemmus, I have battle scars of working on the first joint venture between the CITS and the US back in 1982. Huge resort in Beijing. Long story.

          Just suffice it to say that the project became a mess and eventually needed a global hotel companiy to save the Chinese from ruining a billion dollar development they trashed.

          Liked by 2 people

    • Dutchman says:

      On 2;
      I should think that since the US economy is on FIRE, while every other is in doldrums, any US treasuries sold would be scooped up, short of dumping, athough I am unfamiliar with how treasuries are sold.


    • Esperanza says:

      To me their problem, plus ça change, is that they have nothing we want. Since they’re selling crap, no-one will miss it.

      Remember back in the day China didn’t want our goods and wouldn’t sell silk. Seems very similar.


  30. david says:

    China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018. If one has any comprehension skills, the economy is not declining because there is still economic growth, even if it slowed down. Growing is growing.

    Liked by 3 people

    • abdiesus says:

      But did it in fact grow? Some who have evaluated the data think that it actually shrunk (negative growth) in 2018. Of course it depends upon who you believe, but I personally would take any official Chinese statement with a huge grain of salt.

      Liked by 1 person

      • cripto says:

        Figures out: China’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, slowest in 28 years. The fourth quarter shows 6.4% (level not seen since the 2009 during the global financial crisis).

        Yes it grew, but see my comment above about fudging the statistics.

        What is interesting is it seems a central party meeting is scheduled before Liu He and the vice ministers of finance and commerce are scheduled to arrive in D.C. on 30-31 January for trade negotiations. Don’t know yet what it is about, but we all have guesses.

        As for His Porcine Majesty, he just came back from his shopping trip in Beijing and made an unpublicized stop at Dandong with a meet and greet with China Officials who govern the border areas and the China-NK autonomous region. As you may know the flow of sanctioned goods has increased between China and NK.

        Kim3 wants economic development, highlighted in his New Year’s speech and spent most of his time in Beijing visiting factories and commercial premises. In my opinion he is shopping for the best ‘deal’ or investments. That entails the lifting of sanctions, get an armistice (for both he needs the US and UN to go along) so he can ramp up his united front with SK (juche strategy) and keep his nukes as a guarantor of his continued rule. He needs the US and UN for part of this deal and needs China (and Russia) as leverage.

        It has also been rumored that if Trump meets Kim in Hanoi or Danang, the President may also meet up with Xi.

        We shall see.

        Liked by 1 person

    • WSB says:

      If they are reporting the truth…


    • LafnH20 says:

      In the 1990s, continued “most favoured nation” status for the People’s Republic of China by the United States created controversy because of its sales of sensitive military technology and China’s serious and continuous persecution of human rights. China’s MFN status was made permanent on December 27, 2001

      The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an intergovernmental organization that regulates international trade. The WTO officially commenced on 1 January 1995 under the Marrakesh Agreement, signed by 124 nations on 15 April 1994, replacing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which commenced in 1948. It is the largest international economic organization in the world.[5][6]

      The developments in China sparked negative reactions in the United States, and members of Congress began to question whether they should continue extending certain trading rights to China. The United States first granted China most-favored-nation (MFN) status in 1980, which made trading with China more attractive by lowering tariffs on goods imported to the United States. The status was subject to annual renewal. After Tiananmen, negotiating MFN status became a “political football,” Brecher says. The issue surfaced most notably during the 1992 presidential election campaign. Then-candidate Bill Clinton said President George H.W. Bush “coddled” the Chinese government, which Clinton also referred to as the “butchers of Beijing.”

      Once he took office, President Clinton backed off his campaign trail rhetoric. Clinton signed the trade bill into law, which paved the way for China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.


  31. Latina says:

    Pay attention to the new Global alliance shift happening.

    China Panics over Bolsonaro: ‘Unthinkable’ for Brazil to Align with U.S. and Taiwan

    Liked by 8 people

    • piper567 says:

      Latina…which means of course USA-Brasilian ties should increase rapidly.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Latina says:

        China depends on the US for consumption and Brazil for the raw materials.
        US and Brazil are not happy with the way China is doing business and Brazil is about to review their trade deals with China.

        China must be panicking.

        China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009, due to China’s “rapidly rising demand for raw materials and agricultural produce,” according to the German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

        According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China exports mechanical equipment, computing and communication equipment, instrumentation, textiles, steel, and transportation tools to Brazil, while it imports iron ore, soybeans, crude oil, pulp, and soybean oil.

        Bilateral trade between China and Brazil grew from $6.7 billion in 2003 to $368.5 billion in 2017, of which China has imported $150.8 billion and exported $217.7 billion.

        In the first half of 2018, China invested $1.54 billion in Brazil, including investments into two hydroelectric power stations, power transmission and transformation service projects, water supply projects, and other enterprises, the Chinese Communist Party-controlled Xinhua reported.

        Compared with 2017’s $589 million, Chinese investment increased 161 percent in 2018.

        Bolsonaro agrees with Trump when it comes to China.

        Liked by 3 people

        • piper567 says:

          Latina, I betcha Bolsonaro has read the criminal Contracts his forerunners signed with the Chinese vermin!
          Its China’s habit to fleece anyone they wish to dominate.
          Its Very Serious with Brasil, bc its such a large prosperous Country, its not just some sh!thole Country!!!


  32. LafnH20 says:

    From the article…

    A boost in exports by Smithfield could put upward pressure on U.S. pork prices, Graves said.

    Smacks of SD’s “Exfiltration of Wealth” discussions.


  33. Pale rider says:

    Makes sense to me now why we are importing labor by the millions at such a fast pace. We are destroying all competition world wide, china number one on the hit list.


  34. Mayo says:

    POTUS is reorganizing the World. China better get on the Trump Train.


    • Daniel says:

      No, Trump is reorganizing US government policy which has for a long time represented “welfare for the rich people of the world” benefiting global elites at the expense of pretty much everyone else, especially those who work for a living.

      The rest of the world will have to adjust or simply fail.


  35. Mike in a Truck says:

    My greatest desire is to collapse the Red Chinese economy to the point the Chicoms are reduced to civil war.They are not our friends. They have never been our friends. The Bushs/Clintons/Obamas, created the Economic Red Dragon.May they and their Globalist Bankster Fraudsters rot in hell.


    • Jenny R. says:

      Ever seen the Chinese stage a revolt?
      I’m kinda hoping they shape up and avoid that — I’ve got no wish to see a bunch of people die.
      Mind you, I do think it’s very likely that this is what will happen. But I don’t know if the resulting vacuum would make us any safer long term — we’ll likely just trade one enemy for another.

      Liked by 1 person

  36. Pyrthroes says:

    Aropos Hsi’s Dragon-ology: Hey-hey, ho-ho: ChiComs’ mess has gotta go! When your glass registers half-full or half-empty, get a smaller glass.


  37. railer says:

    Remember, China is the symptom, not the disease. The disease is globalism as manipulated by multinational corporate greed and big finance. This means that many of our enemies live among us, and they and their foreign allies buy the Uniparty government they need to exercise their desire, to strip our liberty and wealth, and put it into their pockets, and control us.

    China is simply playing that system in the same way as the globalists and finance thieves are, by buying our Uniparty politicians and extorting as much as they can by using multinational corporate greed to their advantage.

    We can reverse this, and we must. The enemy is the CoC and especially their Uniparty running buddies, who buy the politicians who execute this theft of our liberty and wealth. China is just a symptom. The disease is among us.

    Our diseased enemies don’t want us to treat the symptom, because they profit from the disease. They don’t want us to open all segments of China’s market to our exports. They don’t want us to use reciprocity as the touchstone of our trade relationship with China. If we alleviate these symptoms, we retain more liberty and wealth, which is exactly what our enemies wish to steal from us. They pay big for what they wish, too.

    Trump seeks bilateral trade agreements for exactly this reason. It treats the symptoms in a one on one fashion, apart from the bought off Uniparty. Multilateral agreements are the globalist’s tool of choice to enact their piratical aims, using that bought off Uniparty. This is the fight, with the diseased, bought off Uniparty, not China. Cut the Uniparty out and we win.

    China’s moving now. They’re not stupid. They’ll adapt, and they really shouldn’t be thought of as our enemy either. Our deadliest enemy lives among us, maybe right next door to us. Trump calls Xi his good friend, and I believe it’s more than just an act. He does actually empathize with the guy at some level, because treating the Chinese symptom involves a bit of pain for the patient. He even absorbs some of the blame, saying stupidity on our side has been the historical problem (it’s not stupidity though, it’s planned). But confronting these issues directly will cure China’s disease and ours as well, so bilateral it is. The disease is globalism and the Uniparty’s greedy push for it.

    Fairness and reciprocity treats the symptoms and will eventually cure the disease, if it’s consistently applied with bilateral trade deals. Everything else will flow from there.

    Liked by 1 person

  38. Zippy says:

    by Wolf Richter • Jan 20, 2019 • 14 Comments
    And This Isn’t Even a Global Recession Yet.

    Auto sales plunged in China over the past four months. What was particularly disconcerting was the sharp deterioration at the end of the year in other markets, not just China. Each market has its own problems, but they’re sure coming together at an awkward moment (13 minutes video)

    A few comments related to that column/video:

    Jan 21, 2019 at 1:41 am
    The average Chinese citizen saves a third of his income for the future. If a Chinese household suffered a 33% cut in income, they could just refrain from saving and not change their lifestyle one bit. If they cut back on dining out and entertainment, they could weather a 50% slash in pay easily. A single digit slowdown in the economy is not going to change things much for the average person.
    Not so for the typical debt-ridden American family living on the ragged edge of bankruptcy.

    Jan 21, 2019 at 1:59 am
    This assumes the saving is in cash. If in hard assets like apartments for example then not so easy. So called ‘wealth funds’ have come to a bad end taking savers with them.

    Jan 21, 2019 at 3:55 am
    They save money in cash first. Second and third homes are later. Everybody has cash. The “wealth funds” in the Shadow Banking is almost all “casino money”, coming after cash and a paid off home. Of course there are imprudent gamblers who put it all on one roll of the dice, but they are not the norm. Most Americans can’t understand or accept the fact that Chinese have savings and almost no debt.


    • swampratterrier says:

      Leading indicator.

      Auto sales are leading indicators of economic activity.
      So Communist China is already in a Great Depression.


  39. namberak says:

    “The media are oblivious to this aspect of the negotiations.” The last six words of this sentence are unnecessary.


  40. Pegon Zellschmidt says:

    Look for Yuge money from China to the Democrat nominee. At this point it may even come with no strings attached,


  41. TradeBait says:

    Checkmate coming soon. Then on to the next game/opponent.


  42. lftrn97 says:

    No sympathy. Been robbing other countries with slave labor since Mao.


  43. Well, nobody can grow forever at the rate China did.


  44. Mike says:

    The US needs to get back to more self-reliance. The US consumers can help by demanding USA Made when they shop.


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