NAFTA Watch – President Trump Phone Call With Enrique Peña Nieto…

Consider this a kick-off to my official NAFTA watch.  Readers will note my earlier spidey-sense prediction of NAFTA withdrawal announcement in/around the end of February through March.   I cannot see a delay in an announcement extending beyond March 2018.  Ergo, CTH is fine-tuning the radar to watch closely.

The fatal flaw within NAFTA has not been addressed.  Neither Canada nor Mexico has even slightly indicated a willingness to engage talks over the fatal flaw.

Exactly the opposite happened earlier this month when Canada signed up to the TPP deal.

The agreement has yet to be ratified by Canadian Parliament, and many are nervous, but it will likely get done.

The NAFTA decision will be the biggest political and economic decision in the Trump administration so far, and the corporate GOPe response is anticipated to be beyond ugly.  Additionally, it would be intellectually dishonest not to accept there are very specific interests watching these pages as part of their proactive strategy. (Hi, Tom)

That said, if you were Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and you noted the specificity of the current trade-policy planetary positions; and you were overlaying the preparatory action taken by Justin from Canada; and you understand there are factually hundreds of billions in play; you would be a fool not to go past past Economy Minister Ildefonso Guarjardo and directly engage the ultimate decision-maker, U.S. President Donald Trump, out of an urgent need to evaluate the survivability of your economic surroundings.  It would be imprudent not to prepare yourself:

(White House) President Donald J. Trump spoke today with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico to offer condolences to the families of the victims of the helicopter accident in Oaxaca. President Peña Nieto returned the sentiment and expressed Mexico’s solidarity with the United States following the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida. President Trump underscored his commitment to expanding cooperation between the United States and Mexico on security, trade, and immigration.

The basic issue is a simple one – for the United States NAFTA has a fatal flaw.  Canada and Mexico are used by China, Europe and Asian nations as a way to work-around direct trade with the U.S. and those nations use NAFTA as a backdoor into the U.S. market. It works out great for Canada and Mexico, but terrible for the U.S.

It is a structural issue and no amount of negotiation is going to remove the fatal flaw unless Canada and Mexico agreed to terms that are directly against their prior financial interests.  Absolutely ZERO action has been taken to address this issue through six rounds of prior NAFTA discussion.  Round six ended with VERY terse words from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer specifically over this issue.

Justin from Canada recently signed up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership.  With that decision the fatal flaw -from a U.S. perspective- just became the final straw to end the U.S. participation in NAFTA.

The U.S. cannot make any bilateral trade deals with TPP nations while those same TPP nations have an alternative access route to the U.S. market through Canada via NAFTA.

Therefore the only way for President Trump to finish a trade agreement with South Korea (current tense negotiations – see Samsung etc.) is to first remove their NAFTA alternative. Anticipating this reality S-Korea also filed a WTO trade challenge earlier today.

Absent of massive last-minute economic concessions (I’m talking full-blown acquiescence) by Canada and Mexico there is no alternative other than for President Trump to withdraw.

Understandably, South Korea is currently hosting the U.S. Olympics and it would have been extremely poor form, very impolite, and economically very destabilizing for Moon Jae-in if POTUS Trump had made the NAFTA announcement in the months/weeks leading up to their international spotlight event.  [It’s not only CTH who follow the global tentacles of multinational trade decisions.]

However, with the Olympics ending next week that diplomatic hurdle is removed… the countdown clock now officially begins.

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This entry was posted in Canada, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2018, Election 2020, media bias, Mexico, NAFTA, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

360 Responses to NAFTA Watch – President Trump Phone Call With Enrique Peña Nieto…

  1. Bob Thoms says:

    P Trump will kill NAFTA; the GOP will launch it’s attacks; the November mid-terms will ramp up; P Trump will use the power of the presidency to bludgeon the GOP for their pro-NAFTA / Anti MAGA position……….the electorate will stand with P Trump. What happens to the GOP control of Congress? How this all plays out will be interesting.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Texian says:

    “The NAFTA decision will be the biggest political and economic decision in the Trump administration so far, and the corporate GOPe response is anticipated to be beyond ugly.”

    “25 Globalst Republicans in the Senate decided to send our President a letter today asking him to get back into TPP. Republicans are absolutely disgusting when it comes to the CoC and their agenda.” [Flep comment.. and Sundance replied with the list of the 25 Traitors, on comment page 1].

    https://m.newstimes.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Republican-senators-are-begging-Trump-to-reverse-12628394.php

    The Swamp Generals have openly entered the battlefield and are pleading their terms in order to avert a ‘big ugly’ war..

    We are at the moment of the final ‘parlay’ in “The Big Ugly..”

    Well ‘Deplorables’.. “just be yourselves.. we didn’t get dressed up for nothin’..”

    Nothing has changed in thousands of years.. only the the theater and methods are different..

    Liked by 3 people

  3. ginaswo says:

    We are with you all the way Mister President!!!!!!! #AmericaFirst

    Liked by 3 people

  4. Blacksmith8 says:

    “You will never take our FREEDOM!”

    Liked by 2 people

  5. USTerminator says:

    If I were PDJT, here is what I layout for global trade and tariff for US
    1. US will levy 35% on all imports globally into US unless there is separate trade agreement with US
    2. Any trade deals will be 5 years sunset provision with must be renewed by both parties explicitly.
    3. Trade deal tariff will be based on local content. Any content less than 100% will be imposed 35% tariff on non-local content (if $10 product have 80% local content will have ($10×20%X35%=$0.70 tariff). This will eliminate the third country sell thru loophole.
    4. All trade deals must be “all or nothing”. This include agriculture, materials, financial, products and services… No exception for selective market protection. Trade will be dictated by marketplace and not government. Any regulation must be applied uniformly both import and domestic.
    5. No mandatory technology transfer as condition for market access, no mandatory local partnership for market access. Intellectual properties protection and penalty will be assessed annually. Strong anti dumping provision that will result in blocking market access for 1/5/10 years.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. CaptainNonno says:

    Hey, Sundance. If Canada and Mexico don’t agree to close the back door trade path, how will binary agreements be achieved? Same limits/country of origin rules will have to be agreed to. Don’t get the game here.

    Like

    • Rhoda R says:

      If we don’t have NAFTA the the Mexican and Canadian products are treated the same way as any other country’s products. Other nations can no longer use C and M to slip their products into the US under the very favorable trade conditions that C and M have.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. old farta says:

    The fact the these unfair trade deals have existed thru 4 presidents says something about the corruption of American politics, on behalf of both parties..

    Like

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