The Modified GOPe Strategy (Road Map) – The Full Monte…

Now that Donald Trump has thrown a monkey wrench into the GOPe Splitter Strategy, we are able to look at their modified objectives.   Keeping in mind the overall Road Map, and the commitment of all the interested parties therein, we can now see the goal:

…If you remove Donald Trump from the current equation – Ben Carson becomes Herman Cain 2012, Ted Cruz becomes Newt Gingrich and Jeb Bush slips right back into the role of Mitt Romney, exactly as planned..

Forrest Bush

….Toward that end an understanding of a few things are needed:

  1. An understanding of the National and State RNC rule changes
  2. An understanding of how the primary delegate distributions fit within the plan.
  3. An understanding of how the architects always planned to eliminate Cruz

All current key state polling, including the releases yesterday from Florida, showcase and confirm the viability of the GOPe Road Map “splitter strategy” as it was designed in 2014.

So lets begin first with the rule changes.

In 2014 the RNC/GOPe apparatus made modifications to the 2016 presidential primary specifically because the chosen candidate, Jeb Bush, would need more structural support in 2015/2016 than Mitt Romney 2012.

Whereas Romney’s Road Map garnered 25-30% electoral support, internal polling (2014) showed Jeb around 15-20% support.  As a consequence of Jeb’s weakness the RNC rules needed to compensate.

Reince-PriebusGOP candidates mashup

Change #1 – The RNC apparatus made calendar date modifications where primary elections held prior to March 15th 2016 would be proportionally assigned. (link)  This helps well funded candidates (establishment)  –in it for the longer term– and is a hindrance to less funded (grass roots) candidates who need wins and momentum to garner money and support.

[…]  In 2014, the RNC approved selection rules that govern how each state’s delegates are portioned out from the primaries. Under one of the changes, states holding their primaries between March 1 and March 14 will have their delegates doled out proportionately with election results, a change that will likely stymie a movement candidate.

States that have primaries on or after March 15 will be winner-take-all states. (link)

This change also makes it very hard to win a majority 50% of any of the early states primary contests.  With multiple candidates in the field, and apportioned delegates, the race is extended in favor of the lower margin candidate who has a lot of money.

Change #2 – With rule #1 in mind.  The RNC changed the required number of state overall delegate wins to be eligible for convention nomination.  RNC RULE #40 changed the mandatory delegate total from FIVE state wins to EIGHT state wins.  (link)

With proportional delegates in all races from March 1st to 15th (15 States), this makes winning states outright more difficult.

Fifteen state primary races are held under the mandatory proportional rules.  It is entirely possible that most, if not all, of those 15 states will not be won by anyone with a margin of 50%+   You can win these states and yet they don’t carry toward the convention (rule #40).

This rule change also extends the race, again favorable to a well-financed long-haul campaign with strong national infrastructure.

Officially, it’s Rule 40 in the RNC handbook and it states that any candidate for president “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states” before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention. (article March 2014)

Change #3 – All state primary races on/after March 15th would be “Winner Take All”.  Meaning whoever won the most district delegates wins all the delegates.   This is where Florida (3/15/16 – 99 delegates) and Ohio (3/15/16 – 66 delegates) and Illinois (3/15/16 – 69 delegates) become more valuable.

These rule changes also made Florida GOPe Road Map lynchpin:

Tampa Bay Times –  That’s why, after Bush signaled he was likely to run, Republican legislative leaders set the 2016 Florida primary for March 15 — and made the primary winner-take-all, rather than a primary in which several candidates could divide the state’s 100 or so delegates proportionally. It was a gift to Bush, to ensure he could count on winning a big pile of delegates in case he did not dominate earlier contests. (link)

However, none of these rule changes anticipated a dominant base-broadening non-Jeb candidate like Donald Trump.

The rules, like the primary road-map underneath them, were designed with two or three potentially favorable candidates all vying for the non-Jeb vote.  Anticipated adversaries were Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and possibly Scott Walker or similar.  However, the primary opponent was always going to be a non-establishment candidate (ie. Ted Cruz type).

Jeb’s splitter team strategy was created with these rules and opponents in mind.  Donald Trump was NEVER anticipated – hence the urgency: Trump simply must be destroyed.

Republicans-ArtOfWar

Now lets look at how the rules and primary states play out.  For this exercise we again need to look at the original GOPe construct, putting yourself in the mind of the 2014 planners, and removing any consideration of Donald Trump.

Iowa (2/1/16), New Hampshire (2/9/16), South Carolina (2/20/16) and Nevada (2/23/16) are the four February primaries (Iowa and Nevada are caucuses).

The Jeb plan doesn’t lend to Iowa (republican establishment candidates always do poorly and there’s only bragging rights to benefit 30 delegates).  Jeb’s plan begins in New Hampshire (Feb 9th) and expands into South Carolina (Feb 20th) – then rolls into Super Tuesday March 1st where the proportional assignments begin:

  • Texas: 155 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Alabama: 50 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Tennessee: 58 Delegates (Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Vermont: 16 Delegates (Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Arkansas: 40 Delegates (proportional) / Open Primary
  • Georgia: 76 Delegates (Proportional) / Modified Primary (Indy and Republicans)
  • Massachusetts: 42 Delegates (Proportional) / Modified Primary (Indy and Republicans
  • North Carolina: 72 Delegates (Proportional) / Modified Primary (Indy and Republicans)
  • Oklahoma: 43 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Virginia: 49 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Open Primary

Let’s look at two states, South Carolina (Feb) and North Carolina (March), to explain how the RNC rule changes (described above) impact the race, benefit Jeb, and begin to eliminate any non-member of his splitter team (ie. a Cruz, Walker or “other”):

SOUTH CAROLINA – [50 Total Delegates] SC has 7 congressional districts, each district has 3 delegates for a total of 21 delegates available by popular vote.   Whoever has the highest vote in each district wins the 3 delegates.

Example District:
Candidate One 40%
Candidate Two 30%
Jeb Bush 25%

In this result Candidate One gets three delegates.  This identical process carries out over 7 districts, and whoever carries the highest total vote in any district wins those three delegates.

In addition South Carolina has TEN delegates “At Large” distributed based on the overall state vote.  (same process as district level, only roll up the district votes to a state total), and 16 “Bonus Delegates” apportioned by the party rules in the State of SC (generally to the overall winner of the highest total vote).  That’s a total of 47 delegates. (21 district + 10 state + 16 bonus).

In addition there’s 3 “super delegates” or “party delegates” one each given to the National Committeeman, Committeewoman and Chair of SC Republican Party.  These are carried to the national convention they are PARTY DELEGATES (meaning Jeb’s in the bag).

Then Comes March 1st – Mandatory Proportional Distribution:

NORTH CAROLINA – [72 Delegates] 69 delegates apportioned based on voting.  NC has 13 congressional districts each worth 3 delegates, each proportionally assigned based on vote totals for candidates within each district.

Whoever has the highest vote in each district wins the 3 delegates.  However, they must win 50% +1 to get them.  If no-one achieves 50% then the top three over 20% each get one delegate.

Example District:
Candidate One 40%
Candidate Two 30%
Jeb Bush 25%

In this result each candidate gets one delegate from the district.  It doesn’t matter that Candidate One has far more support than candidate Jeb.   From races between March 1st until March 15th they are get the same level of proportional delegate benefit.   (It doesn’t matter if Ted Cruz is 40% he’s still only getting one delegate the same as Jeb at 25% – hence the value of splitting when you suck)

The State Chairman shall allocate Delegate positions between the Candidates accurately reflecting the division of votes in the statewide primary.  In addition there are TEN delegates “At Large” distributed based on rolled up district vote totals and 20 “Bonus Delegates” apportioned again by the State Chairman according to the individual percentage of overall vote.

That’s 69 delegates: 10 base at-large + 13 congressional districts (39) + 20 bonus.

In addition there’s 3 “super delegates” or “Party delegates”.  “The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the North Carolina’s Republican Party, will attend the convention as unbound delegates by virtue of their position”.

Now lets take a look at Texas another Super Tuesday Primary only this time the apportioning rules are a little different.   A candidate can win two delegates in a district with only 20% of the vote, if the remaining candidates receive less.  Again, apportional distribution is Jeb’s friend thanks to the RNC.

♦ TEXAS – [155 Delegates]  144 of Texas’s 155 delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on the Texas Presidential Primary.

  • 108 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 36 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
    • If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), or only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district’s delegates. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Section 8.a. and 8.b.]
    • If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes (plurality) receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes receives 1 delegate. [Rule 38. Section 8.b.]
    • If no candidate receives 20% of the vote then the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate. [Rule 38. Section 8.c.]
  • 44 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 34 bonus delegates) are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
    • If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%) that candidate is allocated all 44 at-large delegates. [Rule 38. Section 9.a. and 9.b.]
    • If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 2 candidates receive 20% or more of the vote, the 44 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Rule 38. Section 9.b.]
    • If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the 44 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally between the candidate receiving 20% or more of the vote and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Rule 38. Section 9.b.]
    • If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, allocate the 44 at-large delegates proportionally. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Rule 38. Section 9.c.]

In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Texas’s Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

GOP primary 2

Are you seeing the plan?  This is entirely why the RNC rule changes were made to assist the GOPe Road Map and the polling supports the construct.

#1 – Iowa Caucus/Convention, Monday February 1st 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only)

#2 – New Hampshire Primary, Tuesday February 9th 2016: 23 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)

#3 – South Carolina Primary, Saturday February 20th 2016: 50 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Open Primary (Anyone Can Vote)

#4 – Nevada Caucus/Convention, Tuesday February 23rd 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only)

NOW MANDATORY PROPORTIONAL DIVISION BEGINS

#5 – SUPER TUESDAY: Tuesday March 1st  – 601 Total Delegates

  • Texas: 155 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Alabama: 50 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Tennessee: 58 Delegates (Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Vermont: 16 Delegates (Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Arkansas: 40 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Georgia: 76 Delegates (Proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Massachusetts: 42 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans
  • North Carolina: 72 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Oklahoma: 43 Delegates (proportional) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Virginia: 49 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Open Primary

#6 – Louisiana Primary, Saturday March 5th 2016 : 46 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Closed Primary  (Republican Only)

#7 – Mini Tuesday: Tuesday March 8th – 130 Delegates

  • Michigan Primary: 59 Delegates (Proportional) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Idaho: 32 Delegates (Caucus/Convention) / Closed
  • Mississippi: 39 Delegates (Proportional) / Open Primary

#8 – Puerto Rico, Sunday March 13th 2016: 23 Delegates (Proportional) / Open Primary

ALL 15 STATES BEFORE THIS DATE AND AFTER MARCH 1ST ARE PROPORTIONAL – EVERYTHING AFTER MARCH 15TH IS WINNER TAKE ALL 

#9 – GAME DAY: Tuesday March 15th – 234 Total Delegates

  • Florida: 99 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Closed Primary
  • Ohio: 66 Delegates (WTA, or if less than 50% Proportional) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Illinois: 69 Delegates (Proportional w/ Beauty Contest) / Open Primary

SUMMARY SO FAR:  So we’ve shown two parts of the Elect Jeb trilogy.  The rule changes and the impact on the primary race and delegate distributions. The third part is how Karl Rove always planned to attack Ted Cruz in the last two weeks of February.

Ted cruz and rand paul

We’ve run the numbers within the splitter road map hundreds of ways, the structure just simply doesn’t support Ted Cruz.  You can do all the math yourself, we’ve explained how to do it, check for yourself.  Go district by district, use polling data (sans Trump) and add, it’s math; and a pathway for Cruz is simply not there.

The RNC/GOPe plan has 10 candidates in synchronicity; each gobbling up little bits to put in an establishment bucket (endorsement) at structured places along the way.

The plan was specifically designed by the RNC/GOPe to remove any benefit of grass roots coalition, and destroy a momentum candidate.  In a very specific way, the opposition within every angle of the plan’s design was a Ted Cruz type candidate.

It’s a solid strategy they put together.  It really is remarkably sharp in total construct.  It appears the only way to defeat their scheme, as we’ve said before, is by adding unanticipated voters, ie. broaden the candidate vote and overwhelm the splitter strategy.

♦ In addition after we posted the information for the Cruz supporters the Ted Cruz campaign contacted us and said they did have a viable plan ♦

Brian Phillips from the “Cruz for President” campaign said he would provide the “pathway to victory” outline – he never did.  Nor did he respond to our follow-up inquiry; and remember they sought us out we did not contact them.  It’s been more than a week.

Karl RoveKarl Rove is the master at carrying opposition research.  Right now he doesn’t need to do much toward any other candidate because all efforts are being exhausted to bring down Trump.

Using Carly as the sharp angle of attack (part of Jeb’s splitter team), and Ben Carson as an unwitting divide and contrast character presented as a soft alternative to the Vulgarian Trump, the plan is well underway.

But Rove had and has a plan for Cruz if he needs to use it.   Essentially the narrative to plant is to remind the media of Cruz’s “extremism”, and “polarizing” nature – the same thing the media did during the 2013 government shutdown which defined Cruz as a self-serving antagonist.

Using Cruz’s affiliation with Frank Gaffney – HERE and HERE Rove would essentially paint Cruz as “a birther” of sorts.  Along with Cruz’s affiliations with anti-gay activist David Lane HERE and then using Ted Cruz’s father Rafael Cruz as a negative –HERE– turning him into a religious fanatic and zealot – HERE.

Karl Rove is the master of using loose information to define a candidate  – we know him well – you can easily see how the media would gobble up these narratives; the production scripts almost write themselves.

This will play into the mind of the GOP primary voter who is swayed by the “we-must-have-a-candidate-who-can-win-the-general-election” crowd.  Rove only needs to affirm to the media what the media already wants to sell.

Karl would probably drop this meme into the media bloodstream just after New Hampshire, and then keep dripping “extremist/polarizing” chum in the water until after the South Carolina election, leading up to Super Tuesday.  It’s what he does best.

All of these predictable challenges (considered and well accepted) is most likely why Ted Cruz went toward Donald Trump early on.   Candidate Ted Cruz knows the entire deck is stacked against him, and, well, math is math.

trump cruz 2

These rules were made/affirmed in 2014 – Who or what exactly was the GOP concerned about blocking in 2016 that would necessitate such rules? When combined with other rule changes you can clearly identify a consolidation of power within the RNC apparatus intentionally constructed to stop the candidate of the GRASSROOTS from achieving victory.

It’s all part of their GOPe Roadmap.

update-1 Reference and Resources – (links to internal MSM references are contained within prior outlines):

RNC Rule Changes

RNC Rule Battles

  1. Following The Money
  2. The GOPe Roadmap
  3. ♦ The Roles of The Players – “The Splitters
  4. ♦ How each candidate is aligned in the Roadmap
  5. ♦ Arrow #1 Trump Hits The Super-PACs – The GOPe Achilles Heel
  6. ♦ Arrow #2 Trump Hits Bush – Inside The Wall Street Fortress
  7. ♦ Arrow #3 Trump Cuts Off Rubio/Bush switch – The GOPe Switch
  8. ♦ The Rick Perry Tripwire Exposed – DC Super-Pac
  9. ♦ Jeb Bush Super-Pac Will immediately spend $10 Million
  10. ♦ Proving there is only one political party in Washington DC
  11. ♦ Why Support Trump – Part One (The GOPe Ruse)
  12. ♦ Why Support Trump – Part Two (Stop being played)
  13. ♦ Why Support Trump – Part Three (Intellectual Details)
  14. ♦ How To Defeat the GOPe Road Map
  15. ♦ Current Polling Exposes – the Ohio, Florida, Texas, Virginia, New York Splitters
  16. ♦ Rush Limbaugh Discusses/AffirmsThe “splitter strategy”
  17. ♦ The Biden Paradox – Trump Winning Means Clinton Must Be Removed
  18. ♦ Salem Media Communications (GOPe Media Arm) Launches Attack
  19. ♦ Open Letter To GOPe – The Conservative Frustration
  20. ♦ Why The GOPe Will Never Stop Attacking Donald Trump
This entry was posted in Carly Fiorina, Decepticons, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Jeb Bush, media bias, Professional Idiots, propaganda, Tea Party, Ted Cruz, Tripwires, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

206 Responses to The Modified GOPe Strategy (Road Map) – The Full Monte…

  1. davidfarrar says:

    Sundance: have you checked out Bloomberg View, and article by Ramesh Ponnuru entitled: “Trump Is a Nuisance, Not a Nightmare”. It looks for all the world to be a road-map of your road map. This point was also mirrored over at The New Republic, under the title of “What’s at Stake in the Second Republican Debate: Full Panic in the GOP”

    “If you imagine a scenario in which Donald Trump vanishes from the Republican presidential race, and isn’t replaced by an equally brash panderer—that is, where his supporters scatter to a variety of other second-choice candidates—then you can make the case that behind all the dirt Trump has kicked up, the Republican presidential field is basically healthy.

    “Conservative Bloomberg View columnist Ramesh Ponnuru flirted with that argument at the end of August, by listing all the reasons Trump is unlikely to win the primaries, including the fact that “Republican elected officials would consolidate behind a consensus choice if Trump started winning delegates.”

    Like

  2. Pingback: SMASHING THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT: Trump, Bush, Cruz and Me | NoisyRoom.net

  3. Pingback: Trevor Loudon's New Zeal Blog » SMASHING THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT: Trump, Bush, Cruz And Me

  4. dajjal says:

    Reblogged this on Freedom Ain’t Free & Take Our Country Back and commented:

    The game is rigged. We knew that already. Senator Cruz needs to nationalize the election by early nomination of VP, Cabinet and downstream slates. He would not be able to do anything without a super majority in the Senate. He needs a united, unified slate down stream.

    Like

  5. dajjal says:

    Trump says what we want to hear, but I do not trust him. He tried to appease Clinton, Reid and schumer with $$$. But he scares the establishment witless, which is a good thing. Its time for the one percenters to drop out.

    Like

  6. Pingback: ‘Trump Laps the Field’: Up Big in Two Polls…‘This Movement is Only Growing’ – RNC Rigged Rules Against Trump – Est Push Carly | Reclaim Our Republic

  7. James McComb says:

    I am seriously starting to hate living in a “democracy” where corporations can “donate” however much money they want through the anonymity of “Super PACs” and their presumed “personhood” after the “Citizens United” decision. What a farce. Go Trump!

    Like

  8. Pingback: Presidential Primary Vanity’s End Game | The Quiet Towers

  9. Pingback: 538 "Discovers" The Obvious - Daily Pundit

  10. Spencer's Mom says:

    Here are my questions:

    Normal “winning” a state by a “PLURALITY” doesn’t cut it – a candidate could only “WIN A STATE” by achieving a simple MAJORITY – i.e., one vote over half. Of course, in the case of the early states, (election held on or before 03/14/2016), the candidates get to “keep” any votes they earn – but they can’t claim a WIN unless they attain a MAJORITY. They could take these votes to a convention however – but do they OWN them? Or can the delegates be coerced to vote a different way?

    I understand, then, why it would be hard to “WIN” 8 states by a MAJORITY. If no candidate does that, then — what results – a brokered convention? Is that the situation in which 3-unpledged candidates per state – 3×150 total 150 delegates – also get to cast a vote – and the problem is that they will be coerced/bribed into voting for the Party Favorite – Jeb Bush?

    Also – i know that Trump is busy with his Early Ground Game – getting on the ballot in each state. Do we think that he can get on all 50 states – and SURELY be able to win 8 of them with a MAJORITY? And are all the other candidates doing this? Jeb probably is – but are Cruz and Rubio doing this in all 50 states? Appreciate hearing what you think about this….and please correct me if i am getting some of this wrong – thanks!

    Like

  11. Frank Norman says:

    This is what happened in Mississippi,
    We need to get it rectified before the national election. Tell us what we can do.

    Like

  12. Fej says:

    I just really don’t understand why any state would have an open primary. Why would we as republicans want democrats voting in our primary? Who is behind this decision? Is it state level? National?

    Like

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