GOPe 2016 Road Map To Victory – Tree House Challenge…

Most of you are familiar with our earlier prediction.  In essence, based on historical and current GOPe events and action, we predicted the GOPe leadership, along with Wall Street and Tom Donohue, would devise a roadmap for Jeb Bush to win the 2016 Presidential nomination.

Tom donohue 5In December of 2013 we found clues to the GOPe roadmap and began watching carefully.

In a very general sense the broad construct begins around a very specific premise: The GOPe knew they would need to devise a strategy to elect Jeb Bush with around 15 – 25% of the primary vote, depending on the state – through the first nine calendar primary races.  [Dixie states at the low end, and New England states at higher thresholds.]

If we were accurate in our hypothesis, which was actually based on their previous 2012 strategy to elect Mitt Romney, the 2014 mid-term visible GOP primary spending on incumbents, and alignments within the hierarchy of the Republican establishment – then we assume there would be two essential candidates:

Jeb Bush being candidate one, and Not-Jeb-Bush being the other.

This approach makes winning a matter of math, not ideology.  The Sum of the Jeb Bush vote must be greater than any individual part within the Not-Jeb vote.  That approach guarantee’s Jeb victory with far less than majority voter support.

It seemed a little, well, “out there”; so in the Spring of 2014 we quietly established tripwires which would confirm if the roadmap was accurate.

One of those overall primary tripwires (about the 4th one) we established in 2014 was the sheer number of candidates that would be needed if Jeb was going to survive the lower support-margin, more conservative, states.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets a supporter following her address at the 18th Annual David N. Dinkins Leadership and Public Policy Forum at Columbia University in New York

Each voting sub-set or ideology within the Republican base, within a specific state, would need multiple options in order for the ‘Not-Jeb’ vote to be kept in check below the “risk margin” allowing Jeb’s small vote count to be victorious.  We called this “fracturing the block“.

If a single part of Not-Jeb (remember he/she’s a group) began polling higher than Jeb, then add another similar candidate and split Not-Jeb again.  Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul seemed to be the biggest risk to Jeb.

[Example: Tea Party conservative type voters would need multiple candidate options to fracture their voting block: (Walker, Cruz, Jindal, Rubio etc.)]

Obviously with 17 candidates, it goes without saying the key and essential tripwire was easily triggered.  However, if it had not been – we would have stopped tracking.

Specifically because the number of candidate’s tripwire was triggered we began reviewing media notes for primary calendars, Super-PAC financing, inter-party alignment, money and state establishment party support.

In order for this GOPe roadmap to succeed, each faction within Not-Jeb needs multiple options for voters.  Evangelicals (Santorum, Huckabee), Tea Partiers, Fiscal folks, Moderates, along with voters who might vote based on race (Carson),  and/or gender (Fiorina) preferences. These can all be smaller fractures inside Non-Jeb.

I’ll be honest, originally (back in 2014) it sounded nuts, but no matter how much we tried to ignore it, the tripwires kept being triggered exactly as it would be if our hypothesis was accurate.

Some of those next tripwires in 2015 were specific candidates from high electoral count states that would be needed to act as vote-splitters.

Those candidates would need to appear from states holding two specific traits:  #1) Early chronological primary states -AND- #2) Large Electoral Count states (especially if “winner-take-all” delegate rules were present).

Again, the goal is to keep Jeb afloat by introducing a candidate into the larger “Not-Jeb” group who can remove support from any other larger growing bit of the “non-Jeb” candidate.   Hence, South Carolina (Graham), Ohio (Kasich), Texas (Perry), and Florida (Rubio) – with further insurance policies in Virginia (Gilmore) and New York (Pataki).

We have now watched 14 tripwires triggered and not a single one missed, including the GOP mid-term primary constructs of 2014, the methods deployed to keep incumbents remaining in their positions, and the state party assemblies which led to Florida, Jeb’s home state, switching to 99 “winner take all” delegates.

Just like the number of candidates trigger, the Florida switch to ‘winner-take-all’ was a big trigger.  Another huge trigger was Marco Rubio.  We said early on the lynchpin would be Florida and the 99 delegates – but there was a risk if Walker, Cruz, Perry and Paul all survived into Florida.  (Although I believe the plan works best if Perry drop’s out after Texas “super Tuesday” 3/1/16,  or immediately after Louisiana 3/8/16, before Florida 3/15/16)

If Rubio had not entered the race the roadmap falls apart.  Because without Rubio the Florida strategy for Bush just doesn’t work.  The Rubio trip-wire was essential.  He did enter, and that triggered the continuance.

This GOPe Jeb Bush roadmap also explains the timing of Kasich (Ohio), Pataki (New York) and Gilmore (Virginia) – although Fiorina is also registered homestead in VA.

These candidates are like Pac-Man gobbling up delegate votes from more conservative candidates, and planning to drop them back off in the bucket of Jeb Bush after endorsement at specific dates.

The plan obviously gets less flexible as the year goes on, and with polling against known “Non-Jeb” pieces they would have had to adjust the candidate splitter options quickly.  It would appear they did just that.

Candidate Jeb Bush attends Chamber of Commerce dinner with Fox's Rupert Murdoch and Valerie Jarrett (December 2014)

Candidate Jeb Bush attends Chamber of Commerce dinner with Fox’s Rupert Murdoch and Valerie Jarrett (December 2014)

I WANT TO BE WRONG – Because if we are correct, the next 15 months are just about an exercise in futility. 

Here are the primary dates, types, and delegate counts for the first Nine Event Election Days of GOP Primary voting.  Can you disprove the thesis?

Take your favorite candidate, keep in mind all the variables, make some reasonable assumptions based on regional ideology, and can you identify a pathway to victory?

#1 – Iowa Caucus/Convention, Monday February 1st 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only)

#2 – New Hampshire Primary, Tuesday February 9th 2016: 23 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)

#3 – South Carolina Primary, Saturday February 20th 2016: 50 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Open Primary (Anyone Can Vote)

#4 – Nevada Caucus/Convention, Tuesday February 23rd 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only)

#5 – SUPER TUESDAY: Tuesday March 1st  – 601 Total Delegates

  • Texas: 155 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Alabama: 50 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Tennessee: 58 Delegates (Winner Take All *If 50% of vote achieved, if not Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Vermont: 16 Delegates (Winner Take All *If 50% of vote achieved, if not Proportional) / Open Primary
  • Arkansas: 40 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Open Primary
  • Georgia: 76 Delegates (Proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Massachusetts: 42 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans
  • North Carolina72 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Oklahoma: 43 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Virginia: 49 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Open Primary

#6 – Louisiana Primary, Saturday March 5th 2016 : 46 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Closed Primary  (Republican Only)

#7 – Mini Tuesday: Tuesday March 8th – 130 Delegates

  • Michigan Primary: 59 Delegates (Proportional) / Closed Primary (Republicans Only)
  • Idaho: 32 Delegates (Caucus/Convention) / Closed
  • Mississippi: 39 Delegates (WTA, if Less than 50% Proportional) / Open Primary

#8 – Puerto Rico, Sunday March 13th 2016: 23 Delegates (WTA, if less than 50% Proportional) / Open Primary

#9 – GAME DAY: Tuesday March 15th234 Total Delegates

  • Florida: 99 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Closed Primary
  • Ohio: 66 Delegates (WTA, or if less than 50% Proportional) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans)
  • Illinois: 69 Delegates (Proportional w/ Beauty Contest) / Open Primary

trump cant be bought

Green Paper Resource Tool for information on state by state primaries and delegate distribution specifics.

This entry was posted in Election 2016, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

396 Responses to GOPe 2016 Road Map To Victory – Tree House Challenge…

  1. kinthenorthwest says:

    Have you voted in this NEWSMAX poll: Currently TRUMP 12%, CARSON 13%, CRUZ 15%

    http://www.newsmax.com/surveys/2016GOP/GOP-s-2016-Nominee/id/113/kw/default/

    Liked by 1 person

    • Cameraman says:

      Click to vote polls are amusing but all they tell you is the political bias of that particular website. I think if this site ran a similar poll then Trump would get 85%, Very nice but equally meaningless.

      Better to wait for the next real polls. If September is the month when the anti-Trump campaign goes into overdrive then the end of month polls will be important signposts. If Trump still holds a 30%+ share then that will confirm (IMO) that Trump can and will go to the first primary in an almost unassailable lead.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. crazy says:

    I know I’m in the minority here but the Trump effect thus far has been to allow Bush to sit back and stay alive in the race not to push him out. Regardless of how tough some may think the GOPe has been on Trump they haven’t really lifted a finger – not one push poll – not one robo call – not one oppo dump has been launched by the GOPe against him. What the race is missing is the natural jockeying for position among the more conservative and more moderate bunches of candidates. FNC’s debate coverage is a disgrace not because they picked on Trump but because their job was to bring out the policy positions of the candidates not challenge them on petty nonsense, but I’m sure they’re pleased at the accolades they’re receiving from the MSM. We’re not hearing any serious discussion or debate about domestic or foreign policy, central planning and control vs state and local control, etc because we’re arguing about Trump’s latest put down.

    Trump is succeeding with republicans exactly the same way Obama did with the democrats by presenting himself as the embodiment of their hopes and dreams that have been crushed by the worthless and untrustworthy politicians in Washington. We still have no idea what he would do as President beyond brash platitudes and we never will as long as the campaign is all about what did Trump say today and what does everybody else think about it. We already have that guy as President and he plays a lot of golf too.

    Like

    • joshua says:

      THE FIX IS IN…only Bush can win…until Trump came along…now, only Trump OR Bush can win…and Trump has the elites REALLY worried, he has thrown a monkey wrench into their well organized plan….and Trump just MIGHT win after all….if Rubio tanks in Florida and Trumps gets a big piece of Florida, Jeb’s small margin might get “trumped” and he is a gone goose.

      Liked by 2 people

      • crazy says:

        Everything that’s been said about how one or more of the other 15 enable Bush to slither to victory can also be said about Trump with one difference. Trump’s non-traditional approach and appeal has made every news cycle a Rorschach test on his latest putdown and subsequent refusal to apologize. That’s fine, but instead of exposing Bush’s big-government cronyism it’s enabling him to keep running out of the spotlight that would normally have been on him.

        None of us are old enough to have experienced this a century ago when the corruption in both parties led to the same turmoil but many of us are old enough to have experienced the boiling frustration give rise to the charismatic populist savior riding that wave of anger and resentment more than once in the last 40 yrs. Most have failed but the one who succeeded has continued to tear us apart for two terms of office.

        What I believe we agree on is we don’t need a savior we need a return to constitutional and lawful behavior. As the campaign unfolds I’m as eager as anyone to see where Trump stands and how he would do that.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Bluff Bunny says:

        Trump needs to announce that he is planning to build another mega-hotel/resort IN FLORIDA….. that would mean $$$$ and jobs for the local economy.

        Like

    • Empress says:

      Trump is no cipher candidate, as was junior Senator Obama who had his way into that seat and then onto the Dem ticket paved for him by powers that be and their media.

      Trump is his own man. He has written books and seems to have evolved in his politics, after seeing in the news and no doubt behind the scenes the tremendous corruption, evil, and uncertain future we face. He’s no saint or savior, but he’s personally putting a lot on the line to make this bid.

      You sound as if you’re concern trolling for the establishment. Hope that’s not too blunt🙂

      Liked by 1 person

    • Dottie says:

      You are so wrong about Trump..maybe that is why they call you crazy. Why do you think Trump and Cruz are joining forces..because those are the two they want out of the picture..they aren’t establishment. I know your mentality..you think because the man is wealthy he has to be part of the establishment..he is not.. He was a business man..did what he needed to do to build that business, now he is a politician. He is nothing at all even similar to Obama..a community organizer.. you need to get some rest I think you have gone off the deep end.

      Like

    • sha44ss says:

      Do you think he would be WORSE than BO? Trump has an EGO that wants everyone to KNOW he is GREAT! He is a ‘negotiator’> has worked and given to most of the people in Congress>>> I think he would be someone that could finally get something DONE in DC!

      Like

    • Elspeth says:

      Crazy,

      You’re not crazy. The net effect of Trump so far has been to get Walker and Perry (two actual GOPe threats) out of the race far earlier than planned. Of the other two “strong” candidates, Rand Paul is barely holding on and Cruz is being denied the top position he would have were Trump not in the race.

      One wonders if Trump was a Rovian strategy after all: to knock out the strong candidates before a single primary was held. The others, as Sundance has pointed out, are splitters, party game-players, and they can be taken out just as Herman Cain was. As strong as Fiorina is polling now, I don’t see her as a serious candidate without Hillary maintaining her campaign and DNC support. I don’t know if that will happen: the Biden chatter has been strong lately. If Hillary goes, so does Fiorina.

      It’s my opinion that Jarrett/Obama are trying to push Hillary out with the email scandal. There has been bad blood all along between these sides of the Democrat party, which might be described as Soros vs Rockefeller.

      The GOPe seeing the unexpected takedown of Hillary by her own party, decided to leave nothing to chance in the primary process since, without Hillary, Jeb is the preferred Wall Street candidate. I think Trump was brought in to absolutely insure that all other strong GOP candidates would have to leave before any primary occurred. This would leave the base no one to vote for but Jeb and the splitters, who could be taken out if and when needed.

      I see the NC decision as reinforcing the idea that Jeb is in a stronger position now, not a weaker one. They can afford to make NC another “winner-take-all” state, since a movement candidate is now less likely.

      That’s if Rove can keep control of Trump. Trump is always a bit of a wild card. However, I’m betting Rove has a plan for that too.

      All the same, I agree with Sundance in that we should ALL vote for Trump. Make the GOPe have to lie, cheat, and give away delegates to get the infernal Jeb on the ballot. Make the inside game completely and utterly transparent.

      Like

      • Virginia11775 says:

        Walker and Perry both directed their donors to Cruz, though some went to Rubio, who courted them aggressively. Perry staff, notably Henry Barbour, went to Jeb. But Cruz co-chaired the NRSC when these rules were drafted. He’s a CFR member and knows what’s up.

        Rubio isn’t a splitter. The Bushes know their name is mud, so Rubio is how the establishment hedges their bets. If it looks like Jeb is up to the task, then Cruz takes out Rubio as the “grassroots” favorite. But they are all for open borders and free trade except Trump.

        Like

  3. angie says:

    Just blocked Fox News and Fox Business channels on my att box. Don’t know for sure but maybe blocked channels are tracked. As much as I hate that Big Brother is watching almost everywhere, at least in this way, I can use it to my advantage.

    Like

  4. Empress says:

    Intriguing analysis… and disheartening! Can you explain how Rubio is essential to the FL strategy?

    Go, Trump! May he be the real deal and even tougher than he seems to survive the brutally rigged game.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Emperor says:

    Empress- without Rubio the GOP risks someone taking too large of a chunk of the Florida vote count and Jeb losing FL- which with 99 delegates would be huge. Instead, keeping Rubio around for Florida (especially with him already too far behind to realistically win at that point) will both keep the “non-Jeb” candidate block split to numerous people so Jeb still needs a lower % while simultaneously garner Rubio a chunk of voters from his home state. Hypothetically, this chunk of voters would be taken from the other candidate’s pools moreso than Jeb’s, as it is ALSO Jeb’s home state.

    Both these things together ensure he takes Florida.

    Liked by 1 person

    • 1kerriburns1@gmail.com says:

      The Koch Bros. said they will spend most of the doner money on the nominee… over 100 million. I don’t see them spending it on Trump, so how is this gonna work? Is it possible the people’s voice will be heard, or is it just too rigged?

      Don’t know if you know about this, here is a GOP traitor list:
      http://www.alipac.us/f8/cantor-list-321399/

      Like

    • Empress says:

      That makes sense (sadly!), and thanks for the explanation! And, good to know there are other empires out there ruled by sane, just, and inspired people, if you will allow the presumption.

      Any thoughts as to who is being groomed for the VP slot? Had been thinking Walker or Fiorina, as a sop to conservatives and women, though they be, to me, inauthentic “outsiders” who are softer on immigration and more progressive than their current political personae. Recently, though, and especially after his TPA “confusion”, Cruz has been burnishing his conservative cred with machine guns, bacon, and ExIm-McConnell posturing. Is he actually running for the nomination, or is he playing the part of anti-establishment vote splitter and also being considered for the VP slot on a ticket with JB to bring along reluctant Texas conservatives?

      Like

  6. three by one says:

    Thought-provoking theory. If we still had John Nash, one wonders what he might make of it.

    If indeed Trump is the Black Swan, and his numbers continue to outdistance Jeb, just how far would TPTB go to get him out of the race? Presuming the numbers suddenly start looking wrong, vote-splitters get knocked out of the running, etc.

    I find it a little odd that a month after Trump announces, Chapo Guzman escapes a supposedly maximum-security prison and announces he is going after… Trump?

    Wouldn’t you think a guy who just busted out if the slammer would go after those he believed led to his incarceration? No. A political candidate from another country? Odd.

    In any case, there is now a convenient notorious bad guy allegedly after the only guy with a legitimate shot at upsetting arguably the largest entrenched bureaucracy in history.

    Not that our government would ever consider arming a drug cartel, nah, that would never happen.

    Hopefully Mr. Trump has his own best in the business security in addition to any protection he might receive from the establishment that clearly fears and loathes him.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. joshua says:

    read this revelation on Hilliary44 blog site: wow
    There are a few other things we want to make everyone aware of. Did you know that Fox News had a plan to evict Trump from the debates physically? It’s likely that Fox News wanted to provoke Trump into an explosion so that they could have armed guards come in and remove him:

    They reviewed not just the questions they would ask, but the structure of every query, keeping in mind the constraints of time and the need to avoid repeating topics. As they sorted and re-sorted questions, the unpredictability of real estate tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump was never far from their minds.
    
    Baier even had a “nuclear option” at the ready for Trump if he ignored all protocol.
    
    The script — which he didn’t have to use — took a page from Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” TV show. It went like this: “Mr. Trump in your business you have rules. You follow rules. We have rules on this stage. We don’t want to have to escort you to the elevator outside this boardroom.”
    
    “We’re hoping we don’t have to use it,” Baier said later. “We’re locked and loaded.”
    

    They baited Trump on purpose to then try to evict him.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. kinthenorthwest says:

    This is why I am doubly, triplely, way way more than 100% sure that what Megyn did to Trump she did on purpose to take Trump down. Just Minutes after the debate was over, even before she knew what the back lash against her would be.
    @DWStweets: “I’m more confident than ever that the Democratic nominee will eventually become president.” #KellyFile
    https://mobile.twitter.com/megynkelly/status/629504785797001216

    Liked by 1 person

    • waltherppk says:

      What MK did at the faux debate was Breaking News from the Daily Beast, Donald Trump hatchet job and baseless personal attack … Phase 2, a followup to the false spousal rape allegation for which she interrupted her Kelly File Show as if it was some breaking news event requiring the spotlight, when all it really was is tabloid dirt dug up by Fox researchers to use to try to derail Donald Trump using tabloid garbage and gossip to personally attack the man. Fox News then and there became fully engaged as a yellow journalism tabloid scandal mongerer targeting Donald Trump with sensational false accusations. And all the denials of what Fox did that have been the “follow up” discussion are damn lies by the same caliber of persons who would make the argument that such reporting amounts to professional journalism instead of the tabloid trade where made up crap is king.

      Liked by 2 people

    • I knew she AT LEAST was too PC, but more likely a lib with the way she kept being so wrong on race issues

      Liked by 2 people

      • waltherppk says:

        There is a surreal quality about that preened and groomed manufactured “aristocratic” image we see presented as the work of the “image makers” 99% of which would be washed away after a week in the outdoors wilderness and absent the attention of an entourage of groomers, the constant attention of which has gone to the woman’s head as if she imagines herself to be some royalty of “television broadcasting and journalism” who is really just another cosmopolitan queen bee and high maintenance diva peddling her manufactured wares for who is buying. She is no Barbara Walters. I’m not buying any of it. The fancy painted lady from the “big apple” can now go sell her world view commentaries somewhere else to fellow travelers sharing the same kind of world view as she has, because that sure isn’t me and it sure isn’t millions of others who live outside the bubble that is the world of that walking talking glamour shot.

        What I see there is a female counter part of Brian Williams, a talking head who tells lies and got caught. Many of her colleagues are trying to cover for what she has done and it isn’t working. .Instead what her loyal supporter colleagues are accomplishing is discrediting themselves as cut from the same cloth, of being spin doctors and propagandists and opinion commentators and not honest objective journalists at all. These peoples’ egos are too big for any objectivity their job requires. It isn’t really the evening news any more that people get but is instead much more of what is only pure show business and where the overlap occurs is such a smooth transition it goes right past people what a projection of thought control and audience manipulation and deception is occurring. It is all a really slick production of deceit what news broadcasting has become.

        Liked by 2 people

    • angie says:

      Does anyone know if Megyn ever apologize or backtrack for breaking into her show to announce that Donald raped Ivana ?

      Liked by 1 person

  9. jetstream says:

    Looks like Megyn just got her chain yanked:

    Like

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  11. iratenate says:

    Jeb, aka “Shemp Bush” will never be president. period. If Jeb is foisted upon us, conservative voter turnout will be even less than it was for McCain and Romney’s failed bids. Perhaps the Roadmap needs to be revised to see how the GOPe is working to put Hillary in the White House…

    Like

  12. Dave Stearns says:

    It’s about time the process changes from the corrupt to the less corrupt. On another note I think all GOP candidates should boycotton ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC,CNN and PBS. The Dems never go on Fox. Why legitimize the corrupt mainstream media liars.

    Like

  13. peachteachr says:

    TY sundance. Blows my mind. Wolverines!

    Like

  14. Dave says:

    Jindal is not bought. Nor is Carson, Cruz, Paul or Fiorina.
    Or Trump

    Like

    • Dottie says:

      Sorry..Fiorina.. is part of the establishment …for the dream act..worst business person ever..outsourced a ton of jobs overseas..she would be a total disaster.

      Like

  15. Boudica says:

    I am reading this article for the first time. The strategy/numbers in positioning make my brain go into spasms, but with Trump taking that 25% lead and maintaining it, is he basically in the position they hoped Jeb would be? And if others drop out of the race, aren’t many of their supporters likely to support Trump?

    Like

  16. Charlotte says:

    Because of her speech 2 wks after 9/11 praising Islam, Fiorina should NOT be supported

    Carly Fiorinas actual speech to HP after 9/11.There was once a civilization that was the greatest in the world.ISLAM

    http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/execteam/speeches/fiorina/minnesota01.html

    Like

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  19. Fran says:

    This is exactly why conservatives in NH are holding the first ever “Caucus” in NH to narrow the field on October 17. One by one the candidates will be eliminated when the lowest vote getter and people will be asked to stay when their “guy or gal” is gone, and go with their second, third or fourth next in line. The 603 Alliance (www.603alliance.org) will then encourage voters to unify behind the candidate winning the Caucus. While all Republican and Undeclared voters on the official NH voter’s list can vote with picture ID, the turnout is likely to be a more conservative one. The intent is to unify behind a constitutional conservative candidate so as to level the playing field against the establishment push for their moderate pick to win the important first in the nation New Hampshire Primary in early February.

    Like

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  25. Joe the service guy says:

    Surprise, Surprise………..How does ‘President’ Donald Trump sound?? get used to it, and GET OVER IT!!

    Like

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