President Trump, together with Team USA, attend the 31st summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) today.  Paying close attention to who Trump is meeting with, along with the specific length of time allocated to each of the bilateral exchanges, helps to measure the value of each participant in the larger economic strategy.

In the morning (Manilla local time – 8pm U.S. Eastern), President Donald J. Trump will participate in a photo opportunity with President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines. The President will then participate in a welcome ceremony for the 31st ASEAN Summit.
Later in the morning, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull of Australia, followed by a bilateral meeting with President Duterte. In the afternoon, the President will attend the 5th U.S.-ASEAN Summit which commemorates the 40th anniversary of U.S.-ASEAN relations.
Later in the afternoon, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India followed by an embassy meet and greet.
Schedule below:
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Those who have walked in the deep weeds of geopolitical strategy know the emphasis the Trump administration has placed on ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) as a counter-balance (control leverage) to the Chinese trade and military expansion.
The ongoing trade and security relationship between the U.S. and India, as well as other regional partners, is a large part of the overarching dynamic.  The ASEAN Summit in Manilla Philippines is an opportunity for President Trump to expand the conversations; enter into deeper discussions surrounding the terms of partnership; and deepen commitments toward larger U.S. international objectives.

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The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region including India, comprises a combined population of 1.85 billion people, one-fourth of the global population. From the perspective of India – “Prime Minister Modi is likely to reassert India’s push to create a global approach to deal with terrorism. He will also pitch steps to boost regional trade. One of the more significant meetings will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with US President Donald Trump.”
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The headline says -2.6%, but that’s the median.  The actual 2019 economic predictive modeling for Mexico is up to a 4% contraction if the U.S. cancels NAFTA.  The next round of NAFTA negotiations is scheduled for November 17th.

Additionally, these models are based on current trade economics and do not factor in the ramifications of Mexico joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and signing up to manufacturing sector agreements with Asian nations who can easily undercut even the low wage rates in Mexico based on average wealth.
The predictive models are run by various analysts paid by multinational business interests (corporations) to give advanced forecasting.  The results of the forecasts are used by multinational financial systems to determine the inherent value of future investment within Mexico.
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Apologies in advance to our conservative Canadian friends; but the explainer here is regarding America-First trade and economics against the backdrop of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Canada and Mexico’s alignment therein, the APEC Summit and rainbow socks.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Justin from Canada

Here’s why Canada and Mexico signing up to TPP is great news for the U.S., and couldn’t come at a better time for NAFTA round #5 on November 17th.  We don’t want TPP to collapse, because TPP ties the hands of Canada and Mexico to elements of trade that are based on collective interests. Their joining TPP provides the U.S. leverage in NAFTA.
Remember, Vietnam is exactly 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone.  At 7:450pm last evening in Vietnam (local time), at the last minute, Rainbow Socks backed out of the signing the TPP framework (explained here).  Twelve hours later, at 7:20am (local), the AP reported the agreement was “back on” with “a compromise”:

DANANG, Vietnam (AP) — The Latest on the summit of 21 Pacific Rim economies in Vietnam (all times local): 7:20 a.m. – Trade ministers say they have reached a basic agreement on a Pacific Rim trade pact without the United States.

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This has to be,.. scratch that,… ‘THIS IS’ one of the biggest multinational trade embarrassments in the past decade.

President Trump and team U.S.A. have already said  the United States is not engaging in the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal (TPP). We’re out, and have been out since the 2016 election. [The U.S. is focusing on direct, one-one-one, bilateral trade agreements.]
However, for the backdrop of this latest TPP development, you might also remember USTR Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the NAFTA plans were at loggerheads, and cancelled the October round of NAFA discussion, because of the ridiculous positions of the Canadians led by Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s far-left Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Well, for several months the eleven nations within the TPP have been negotiating among themselves for the details of the agreement without the United States. The member nations in the TPP-11 group are: Australia, Japan, Brunei, Mexico, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and Canada.
All eleven trade ministers from the TPP-11 countries had finally agreed on a “substantial conclusion” to the deal. The framework was built over almost two years and it was to be signed off by leaders on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Vietnam today.
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President Donald Trump delivered an defiant opening speech at the 2017 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Da Nag, Vietnam earlier today. Speaking to an Asia-Pacific audience consisting of over 400 top corporate CEO’s, international leaders, and key heads-of-state from the region, President Trump outlined his expectation for trade relationships with ALL member states.
Trump began by walking through a list of the primary regional nations, praising each for their history and culture and then highlighting their modern success and advancement in economics and trade.  Then President Trump shifted to economics and national security; delivering a strong and deliberate message that the era of unfair trade practices, and one-sided trade deals, with the U.S. was over.

…”We can no longer tolerate these chronic trade abuses, and we will not tolerate them. […] that is why I am here today. […] The current trade imbalance is not acceptable. […] From this day forward, we will compete on a fair and equal basis. We are not going to let the United States be taken advantage of anymore.”…

As noted by a tuned-in observer of the tone in delivery.  President Trump’s delivery to the audience was as bold and defiant as his presentation at the Al Smith dinner in 2016.  No punches were pulled, no ambiguity in motive. Trump dropped the atomic sledgehammer of economic truth upon the increasingly nervous audience. It was spectacular.  WATCH:

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[TRANSCRIPT] PRESIDENT TRUMP: What an honor it is to be here in Vietnam — in the very heart of the Indo-Pacific — to address the people and business leaders of this region.
This has already been a remarkable week for the United States in this wonderful part of the world. Starting from Hawaii, Melania and I traveled to Japan, South Korea, and China, and now to Vietnam, to be here with all of you today.
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If you haven’t followed the entirety of how the “Freedom Alliance” was assembled in the very early months shortly after the election of President Donald Trump, it’s hard to understand the scope of what is taking place in the middle-east.
The nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), led by Saudi Arabia, are on the cusp of transforming themselves into a modern and engaged era. The goals of the GCC allies, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) are to remove the influence agents who have supported extremism, the Muslim Brotherhood, and stimulated and/or enabled crisis for personal and ideological gains.
Because of the financial reach within the parties involved, the downstream consequences are being felt within the political bodies of most nations including our own. Specifically within Washington DC’s deep-state institutions, career politicians on foreign affairs committees, and within the upper and lower tiers of the aggregate U.S. State Dept.  A great realignment is taking place.

Caption: There will come a time when you will need to choose a side. Think wisely…

French President Emmanuel Macron said today he will make an unexpected trip to Saudi Arabia after leaving the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to see Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and discuss crises in Lebanon, Yemen and the wider region.  This happens simultaneous to the UAE announcing they too are examining bank accounts for their own officials, officers and leaders within their nation.

DUBAI (Reuters) – French President Emmanuel Macron is making a previously unscheduled trip to Saudi Arabia on Thursday to see Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman amid rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, notably over Lebanon and Yemen.

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President Trump and President Xi Jinping will be holding a joint press announcement from the Grand Hall in Beijing China tonight at approximately 11:30pm (U.S. Eastern time zone). There will be two statements delivered, one from President Trump and one from President Xi.
Because all Chinese broadcasts are controlled by the communist regime, the White House will not host a live stream. However, the joint statement as delivered should be carried on cable TV and possibly included in the Live Stream Options Below:
UPDATE: Video Added

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After an hour of scheduled “closed-door” one-on-one “private” discussion between President Trump and President Xi, the leaders of both nations reassemble with their delegations for discussions between the larger groups.
Beijing Schedule: At 10:40am (local) / 9:40pm (U.S. Eastern) President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping lead an expanded bilateral meeting with their respective emissaries of trade, finance and national security.  (Video of initial remarks)

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(Pool Report) The meeting took place in an elaborately adorned room in the Great Hall of the People.  The US and Chinese delegations faced each other at a pair of long tables. Trump and Xi sat in the middle of the table. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and US ambassador to China Terry Branstad stay on either side of Trump. Trump and Xi both spoke for a few minutes.
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President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet complete with marching band and joyful children for the arrival of President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump.
However, there will be strict controls on U.S. and Western media, so don’t expect too much unchecked communication; as well as expansive control over the optics of the general Chinese population. Beijing’s old guard will not want the optic of too warm a welcome from the uncontrolled population toward their primary geopolitical adversary.

Schedule:
2:40pm (Local) / 1:40am (U.S. Easern) THE PRESIDENT and THE FIRST LADY arrive at Beijing Airport, Beijing, Peoples Republic of China
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