Latest Reuters National Poll

In my humble opinion – now that we are approaching the THIRD GOP debate, there should be a cutoff at 5% for Top Tier candidates.  Drop the remaining candidates into alternate debate formats – No-One under 5% should be present in prime-time.

Trump, Carson, Bush, Cruz, Rubio in “Prime-Time”, all others alternate debate venue.

Lots of disclaimers in the methodology of this poll (pdf below). Consider accordingly:

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Multiple political stories breaking today (consider this an open discussion thread):

♦  Dr. Ben Carson is taking a 2 week break from campaigning to focus on his book tour –  […] According to ABC News, the next time Carson will publicly campaign will be Oct. 28, the day of the GOP debate, which will take place in Colorado. The last time Carson did a public campaign event was Oct. 2.

Carson will also catch up on fundraising events over the next two weeks. He has 20 events scheduled. In the third quarter of this year, Carson raised $20 million.

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“Polarizing” is a descriptive term used by a pontificating media to disparage various elements they find antithetical to their own worldview.  Generally, when the term is used it is wrongly assigned. However, in the case of Ted Cruz it’s unfortunately accurate.

When Jason Johnson sits down to discuss his pathway to the nomination with George Will, it says more about Jason Johnson than it does about those who read Will’s opinion of the aforementioned pathway.  What it essentially says is there’s a need to affirm something that isn’t factually supported by any measure of quantifiable empirical evidence.

However, when you look at the recent CBS survey result (discussed here) what you’ll identify is half of the Ted Cruz supporters themselves state they don’t think he is electable.  Hence, you find the motive for Cruz Campaign Strategist Mr. Jason Johnson to give the outline; fraught with intellectual dishonesty though it may be.

Yes, 10% of the Republican Primary Voters hold ‘most-favorable-status’ opinion of Ted Cruz, yet the number evaporates to 5% when asked “can he win”?  Ergo the Cruz dilemma.

The expressed “Cruz pathway” carries numerous contingencies requiring an electorate to travel with the Cruz team on faith alone.  And yes, that’s an intended double entendre, because faith is the underlying element of the entire campaign.  (Insert first alarm bell here). (more…)

George Will had a column yesterday in the Washington Post about a conversation with Ted Cruz’s election strategist.  Within the article Jason Johnson shares how the Cruz campaign feels they can win the GOP nomination.

The pathway, as described, is so far beyond possible, it leaves the reader wondering what exactly is the real goal of this campaign.  We’ve looked at this “plan” in detail, and will outline later today.  However, for those who fully understand the state-by-state primary races, you might first want to read the full plan as outlined by the Cruz team.  (Here’s An Internal Tool to cross reference the states mentioned)

(Via George Will WaPo)  If America’s 58th presidential election validates Ted Cruz’s audacious “base plus” strategy, he will have refuted assumptions about the importance of independent “swing” voters and the inertia of many missing voters.

Critics say his plan for pursuing the Republican nomination precludes winning the presidency. Jason Johnson, Cruz’s chief strategist, responds: “I’m working backward from Election Day,” because Cruz’s plan for winning the necessary 1,236 convention delegates is an extrapolation from his strategy for winning 270 electoral votes.

All presidential campaigns aspire to favorably change the composition of the electorate. Cruz aims to substantially reconfigure the electorate as it has recently been. (more…)

Asked by WABC Radio’s Rita Cosby whether he believed that “eventually, you could beat him, based on your principles,” Cruz said he could.

(Cruz discussing Trump supporters is around 12:00 min point)

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“I think that’s right. I think that, in time, I don’t believe Donald is going to be the nominee and I think, in time, the lion’s share of his supporters end up with us,” Cruz said in an interview taped Thursday that will air in full on Sunday. (more…)

• Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz TOTAL = 49%
• Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie TOTAL = 31%

Morning Consult Poll – […] Trump takes 31 percent of the vote in the new Morning Consult poll, easily outpacing retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson’s 13 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) finishes in third place, at 10 percent, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), at 7 percent.

[…] The Morning Consult tracking poll surveyed 1,983 registered voters between October 2-5, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. A subsample of 807 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.45 percentage points. (link)

Wall Street wants the TPP deal.  The Obama administration wants the TPP deal.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce wants the TPP deal.  Rupert Murdoch wants the TPP deal.  Fox News wants the TPP deal.  Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rick Perry all approve the TPP deal.  Candidates Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio supported fast track trade authority for the TPP deal.
The TPP deal is exceptionally bad for U.S. manufacturing and jobs.

(Via Reuters)  The United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries have reached a sweeping deal to set up a free-trade zone for 40 percent of the world’s economy, but the accord on Monday faced initial skepticism in the U.S. Congress.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the most ambitious trade pact in a generation and could reshape industries and influence the cost of products from cheese to cancer treatments, presenting key issues also for drug companies and automakers.
Tired negotiators worked round the clock over the weekend to settle tough issues such as monopoly rights for new biotech drugs. A demand by New Zealand for greater access for its dairy exports was only settled at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT) on Monday. (more…)

The TPP Trade Deal is looming closer to becoming a finalized reality.  Current negotiations center around Auto Manufacturing, and Japanese negotiators have constructed an outline that would devastate what remains of the U.S. Auto industry.
Unfortunately the K-Street lobbyists, funded by Wall Street through the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have already greased the legislative skids to all but guarantee the elimination of thousands of jobs. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue gave Senators $18 million in bribe money to insure passage.
The TPP deal encompasses approximately 40% of total global manufacturing.  Trillions of dollars are at stake.

TPP is fully supported by the Obama Administration and the legislative passage of a deal was essentially finalized, through manipulation, by changing the senatorial approvals to a mere 51 votes (Fast Track Trade Authority).
Backstabbing Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and many others joined with Mitch McConnell and his merry band of usurpers to change the statutory approval threshold in this regard.  The bill passed 60-38
Current TPP negotiations underway in Atlanta, specifically around auto-manufacturing, showcase just how devastating this Trade deal is going to be: (more…)