IOWA – Not long ago, Iowa’s Terry Branstad gained distinction as the longest-serving governor in U.S. history, pushing past the 20-year, 11-month mark with two years still remaining in his record-setting sixth term.

To call him an Iowa institution is a bit like saying they grow a lot of corn in the countryside, or that it gets cold in the winter.

Part of Branstad’s appeal is a studious anti-charisma. He is a dull speaker, conservative in a mainstream Republican manner and, while personally gracious, not the least bit dynamic. Think pressed turkey and mayonnaise on white bread. (more…)

Two simultaneously conducted polls within Iowa show candidate Donald Trump back on top with Ted Cruz running a close second.

Quinnipiac polling (full pdf below) shows Trump leading 31 to 29. The American Research Group (poll here) shows Trump leading Cruz 29 to 25. Both polls show both candidates closely spaced within the polling margin of error.  The only other candidate with a reasonable chance appears to be Marco Rubio who holds 15% (Q-Pac) and 10% (ARG).

It is safe to say that Iowa is a two-man race between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, with Marco Rubio holding a solid, but distant, third place position.  Jeb Bush and the rest of the candidates are down in low single digits in both polls. (more…)

PART I – The professional political class continue to say candidate Donald J Trump is not conservative enough on his positions.  Various voices proclaim ownership of some arbitrary defining litmus test – that apparently moves depending on the definition of the person making the proclamation.

… so let’s cut through the BS and take a look at the issues.

♦ On Immigration – Donald Trump is the originator of the entire immigration debate platform.  His position is outlined HERE, and is the ONLY candidate who proposed to build a wall, deport those who are here illegally, and use existing law to ensure enforcement mechanisms are deployed to stop illegal influx.

Including a critical proposal to use federal banking and money services regulations (wire transfer rules to Mexico) to aid in creating an incentive to become compliant with immigration law.

Trump has proposed removing executive restrictions on deportation through ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) officers, allowing immediate deportation for undocumented illegal aliens.   The media call this “the deportation force”. (more…)

A very interesting New Hampshire poll conducted by Reach Communications (full pdf and graph analysis below) for NH1 News, shows Donald Trump with a commanding lead overall 31.7%, and a MASSIVE lead among women voters, 40%.

The Poll is a strong sample size of 1,000 Republicans and Independents, and shows second place belongs to Jeb Bush (11.9%), who is slightly ahead of third place Kasich (11.8%) and followed by Chris Christie (11%):

Looking at the internals below you can see how Donald Trump leads with all sub-categories of voter: Republican and Independents, Men and Women.  However, Trump really extends his overall lead margins with women.

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Since 2013 we have specifically documented the legislative agenda of Tom Donohue, Wall Street, and their lobbying arm the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  The CoC legislative agenda includes:

• Passage of the Trans-Pacific Trade Deal
• Retention of ObamaCare – Without repeal or modification
• Implementation of Federal Common Core Education Standards
• Comprehensive Immigration Reform to include Amnesty

All of the presidential candidates actively support this chamber agenda (some more openly than others), which is also supported by Club4Growth, Koch Brothers, Robert Mercer, and Wall Street.

ALL of the GOP Presidential candidates have taken tens of millions in lobbyist money to assist their campaigns.

All, except Donald J Trump.

Julia Hahn […]  Conservative populist thought-leader Jeff Sessions has explained that supporting amnesty and citizenship for illegal immigrants should be inherently disqualifying for any GOP nominee. Sessions said previously, “Supporting citizenship for illegal immigrants should be disqualifying. (more…)

When there is a lack of publicly presented MSM polling, generally it’s because the results within their polling is not fitting with the preferred narrative. Such is the case with the absence of polls from December 10th to January 8th.

With that in mind, and accepting that time was of the essence for GOP debate formatting for next week, it was certain that some form of MSM polling, from the major networks, was soon to surface. However, the batch of polls released today might fit for the purpose of MSM debate stage formatting, but beyond that – these are totally useless “agenda polls”.

The full polling results, and their accompanying pdf’s are below. After the data presentation we’ll show how and why the Fox polling can be completely disregarded. The agenda polling has an unintended consequence of being specifically adversarial for Marco Rubio supporters, and is transparently flawed.

Here’s the National Result:

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A poll from Florida Overtime Politics (pdf below) shows a snapshot of Florida in January.  Donald Trump leads with 32%, Cruz 21% and Rubio 18%:

FLORIDA – Donald Trump sports a comfortable 11 point lead in the Sunshine State, besting Ted Cruz 32-21%. Marco Rubio, who is from Florida, picks up 18% of the vote.

While most states, especially the ones that vote before March 15th, are competitive for Cruz and Rubio in the sense that they can at least win some delegates, Florida issues all of theirs to the person with the most votes. Finishing 2nd or beyond gets you 0 delegates, while 1st place gets 99. Right now, in order for either of them to win anything in Florida, they would have to un-seat Trump from the driver’s chair. (more…)

Senator Ted Cruz entire campaign is built around his projection as “the most consistent conservative”.  This video does not show consistency.  The topic is “birthright citizenship”:

Apparently the U.S. Constitution became much more flexible between 2011 and 2015.

The latest PPP poll (full pdf below) from New Hampshire reflects a considerable shakeup behind Trump.  Candidate Donald Trump remains at the top holding a significant lead more than double the next competitor, Rubio.

The various wings inside the Deathstar GOPe are now left with factional fighting among themselves – Trump has split the splitters. Rubio attacks Bush who attacks Christie who attacks Kasich who attacks Rubio who attacks Kasich who attacks Christie who attacks Bush etc…

However, with that: Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Jeb Bush have now surpassed a falling Ted Cruz (dropped 3 points from prior PPP poll), and Ben Carson is down in the Fiorina bracket of irrelevance:

(Via PPP Polling) […]  The candidates with the biggest gains since our last poll in early December are Bush (up 5 points from 5% to 10%), Rubio (up 4 points from 11% to 15), and Kasich (up 3 points from 8% to 11%). Bush and Kasich have also had notable gains in their favorability ratings.

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In what can only be noted as “typically Cruzian” the Senator who sponsored the “Renewable Fuel Standard Repeal Act”, which would have immediately repealed the ethanol mandate, has now reversed course and claims to support continued Iowa Corn Subsidies.

The pandering flip-flop becomes “brutally Cruzian” when the campaign for Ted Cruz denies the current change in position by pointing to a prior change in position;  saying, in effect: when Senator Ted Cruz decided to run for President he changed his position, and in 2014 supported a five year phase out of the Renewable Fuel Standard.

So candidate Cruz was against Iowa corn subsidy, 2013; then became for Iowa corn subsidy (with phase out), 2014, and now advocates on behalf of corn subsidy in 2016.

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