During the Maine GOP caucus on March 5, candidate Ted Cruz came out on top with about 46 percent of the vote.  Based on the caucus result Cruz was allocated 12 delegates, leaving nine for Trump and two for John Kasich.

Maine’s Governor Paul LePage coordinated with the Cruz camp, the Trump camp and the Kasich camp to insure the state convention would provide equitable distribution of the delegates based on the caucus result.
This is called a “unity ticket”, with delegates assigned based on the results of the caucus.
However, during the state’s convention this weekend the Cruz campaign reneged on the agreement and stabbed the caucus voters in the back.  As they have in other state contests, Team Cruz manipulated the delegate selection to gain 19 of the 2o delegates.   CNN has more on the events:
(Via CNN) […] Cruz collected 19 of the 20 spots up for grabs, with the 20th spot going to Maine Gov. Paul LePage, who’s supporting GOP front-runner Donald Trump. (more…)

Requested Distribution from the Mail Room:

(ARIZONA Op-Ed) If you are in Arizona, mark April 30th on your calendar and plan to attend because Arizona GOP elite says Trump voters don’t matter.
This is why the Arizona Cruz supporters and the GOP establishment elite have entered into an unholy alliance to “stack the deck to steal the national delegates” from Mr. Trump at the Arizona GOP State Convention scheduled for April 30 in Mesa.
A delegation of 1,251 state delegates elected from 40 Arizona Legislative and County Caucuses will descend on Mesa on April 30. Unfortunately, many of these state delegates are Cruz supporters led by Constantin Querard and “anyone but Trump” supporters led by Robert Graham and the RINO establishment. (more…)

As the Trump campaign has navigated the minefield of opposition, many have inquired (mostly via email) about the ‘next steps’, the horizon per se’ – as it relates to the tripwire series.
Much of the Donald Trump campaign is correctly framed by the media as impossible to predict, uncharted, or completely new; and to a large extent that outlook is correct.
However, for those who really understand how we found the GOPe road-map, and predicted the multi-candidate splitter strategy in 2014 even before the 2016 campaign began, there is a part of the journey that -if successful- leads to predictable outcomes.

When looking forward, to predict behaviors based on motive, you must always ground yourself on the motives behind how the race advanced to where it is today.   All future perspectives must coincide with the more broad historical agenda of the group being discussed.
There are four basic groups in the Republican “NeverTrump” coalition. In essence these are Team Trump enemies writ large: (more…)

Below are the pdf’s of the raw poll data.  Essentially the Fox polls of Indiana and California mirror other recent polls of the same states.  The electorate is set, almost no-one is undecided….. tick-tock, tick-tock.  The critical aspect is:

..EVERYONE MUST VOTE !

[scribd id=310140656 key=key-WhEjhtfnovaE3eT2e2xw mode=scroll]
(more…)

Um, yeah, good luck with that.
According to the latest Reuters Polling snapshot Senator Cruz has dropped another 5 points this week –LINK .   This comes on the heels of several weeks of polling data outlining how Ted Cruz has a significant problem with “authenticity”.
Readers will note we have discussed this several times.   The more the general electorate get to see and know Ted Cruz, the more his support drops.  There is a direct correlation.

The Associated Press now reports the Cruz Camp is making an effort to train Senator Cruz to become more likable: (more…)

The only public poll released so far in the 2016 presidential primary race of Indiana voters reflects essentially what has previously been shared via ground reports.  Candidate Donald Trump is holding a lead and there is a remarkable increase in voter enthusiasm.
♦ Indiana votes on May 3rd. ♦ It is an open primary, Democrats, Republicans and Independents are allowed to participate. ♦ There are 57 delegates available. ♦ The primary is “Winner-Take-All” by district and state-wide. ♦ 9 districts x 3 delegates per (27 total), and 30 delegates to the overall state winner:

(Via Howey Politics) The poll was conducted by pollster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies from April 18-21, with a 500 base sample and both Democratic and Republican over samples. The margin of error in the Republican race was 4.3%, while on the Democratc side, it is 4.47%. (more…)

Pennsylvania is a rather odd primary system.  There are 71 total delegates available, however only 17 of those are bound to the winner of the overall state primary vote.  The remaining 54 delegates are voted for on the ballot itself, and are considered ‘unbound’ delegates able to vote for their preferred candidate.
18 congressional districts x 3 delegates per district = 54 delegates.

(Poll Data Link)

That said, many of the unbound delegates have committed to either vote for the winner of their congressional district, or stated they will vote for the state winner.  All of the delegates had to submit their name for candidacy prior to February 16th, 2016.
According to a spreadsheet put together by Phil Kerpen, there are also 26 (electable) self-proclaimed Cruz delegates and 34 (electable) self-proclaimed Trump delegates.
There are 27 delegates who are not committed to any specific candidate, 59 who expressed their commitment to the district winner, and 5 who say they’ll support the state winner. (more…)

A very interesting and exceptionally in depth poll from Sextant Strategies (two pdf’s below) of California voters shows candidate Donald Trump is in a commanding position within the state.
Interestingly, the poll highlights two overall categories voter: 1. Registered Republicans who have voted frequently in all recent elections; and 2. New voters who are registering in astonishing numbers in order to vote in this year’s primary.
Donald Trump is leading with traditional republican voters (41%), and is crushing the field with those holding new registration (53%).  The internals and crosstabs of the poll are a very interesting read.  Here’s the topline result:

Candidate Donald Trump is winning with all demographics (men, women, age, race, income level, education etc.) within the cross tabs of the poll.
However, Trump’s lead expands significantly when you review the “new voters” who are registering by the thousands.
(more…)

Indiana has some of the most ardent laws forbidding unsolicited voter contact which eliminates most polling organizations from conducting organized polling.  As a direct result there have been almost no polls conducted in the state, leaving a great deal of speculation about the state of the race.

Additionally, there’s a transparency of motive within the political media to jump over the April 26th primary states and focus attention on Indiana (May 3rd) to frame a narrative of larger political interest.
Indiana has clearly become the best hope for candidate Ted Cruz sell his position that he can stop Donald Trump from achieving the 1,237 delegates needed for an outright nomination victory.   Ergo Politico delivers an article showing some “private polling” information that helps maintain interest in the storyline: (more…)

Pat Buchanan was interviewed by Sean Hannity last night and raises some good fundamental points regarding the ridiculous positions espoused by professional punditry and political elites.  Lots of plain common sense:

Buchanan points out:
1. Trump is holding rallies of 20,000 – 30,000+ IN A PRIMARY. This is a historic point that most seemingly overlook.  No-one ever before has gathered such crowd sizes in “primary races“.  Supportive crowds the size of Trump (and yes, Sanders) have only before been witnessed in “general elections”, and only one candidate on the republican side is capable of generating this much enthusiasm.
2. The talking point of a “contested convention” when the clear frontrunner is millions of votes ahead of the field is ridiculous. Prior 19th century “contested”, “open”  or “brokered” conventions never involved the sheer scope of the 2016 primary vote lead (currently 2.4 million ahead with well over 8 million votes).
3. This is not forty years ago. With instantaneous communication, instantaneous individual video recordings, and instantaneous video transmission of convention events to the phones, computers and TV screens of the larger U.S. electorate, the visible damage to the party apparatus attempting to defy the will of the voter will be irreparable if the RNC attempts or allows it.
(more…)