In August of 2015, against considerable backlash, we stood firm on a fundamental position that Senator Ted Cruz did not have a pathway, a roadmap, to victory in the 2016 GOP presidential primary.

Despite the fundamentally sound reasoning for our prediction, which was entirely based on congressional district by district analytics, our position drew an immense amount of criticism and even a quick response from the Cruz campaign itself (Brian Phillips).

Unfortunately, tonight’s South Carolina results vindicate a massive amount of historical research.  There simply is no pathway to victory when you rely almost exclusively on “proselytizing as an electoral strategy“:

(link)

Not one county, and not a single delegate

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Polls Close in South Carolina at 7:00pm.  Sometime around 5:00pm most media will begin reporting “preliminary exit poll” information.   However, it is important for South Carolinians to IGNORE ALL EXIT POLLING INFORMATION. The media are notorious for using “exit polls” to influence the last few hours of voting.

POLLS CLOSED !

Donald Trump Declared WINNER

See the moment the Trump HQ heard the Donald projected to win SC primary pic.twitter.com/UDg9A9NWxa

— John Santucci (@Santucci) February 21, 2016

Meet At The Old Mill, We Ride West At Midnight !!

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Unless something rather drastic comes out that needs to be deconstructed or analyzed, this will be the last presentation of a poll in South Carolina.  Why?  Well, quite simply, all of these latest polls are being too manipulated to be of any real value – Including this one.

The latest Fox News Poll (full pdf below) is data driven by Anderson Robbins Research (Democrat firm) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican firm), and not by Fox Media itself.  The sub-contracts have vested financial interests/stakes in the race – hence the under and over samples evident to present an outcome that cannot be assured as objective:

The results, while following a similar path to prior polls, are too fraught with assumptions and specific weighted demos, leading to high margins of error for certain demographics.

Here’s the snapshot showing the demos, including some of the higher MOE categories as noted. (more…)

“Reports of Donald Trump’s imminent demise as a candidate are clearly and greatly exaggerated. Like a freight train barreling through signals with his horn on full blast, Trump heads down the track towards a possible nomination,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The insufferable agenda poll pushed by NBC/WSJ (constructed by a political PR firm) is rightly dispatched into the land of outlier irrelevance by a much larger sample (four times larger) Quinnipiac poll (full pdf below) released last night – showing a much different result.  The Quinnipiac poll is in alignment with all other recent national polling.

The top-line figures provide further evidence of a continuing trend.  As the field is reducing, Trump and Rubio are gaining support while Ted Cruz continues slipping backward.

These results are in line with other national and South Carolina polling and ground reports which reflect the top three race as #1 Trump, #2 Rubio, and #3 Cruz.  As a direct result the exasperation of Team Cruz will increase exponentially. (more…)

RIGHT NOW:  Donald Trump is on MSNBC – Live Link

Dr. Ben Carson, Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio are on CNN – Live Link

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The team of NBC and Wall Street Journal (Rupert Murdoch owned) has struck again with their latest highly coordinated and heavily manufactured latest “Agenda Poll”.  We have previously revealed NBC/WSJ’s prior two constructs HERE and HERE….

[AND now you know why we proactively do so.]

NBC’s Chief Pollster Propagandist, Mark Murray et al, is out with yet another ridiculous poll (exceptionally high Brian Williams as a verb factor).  This time showing Donald Trump trailing Ted Cruz in an “explosive new development“…. Oh my.

However, this time it appears Murray has learned to insert an exit strategy to avoid the egg-face/embarrassing-sunlight factor of prior exhibitions.   In a not-so-subtle veiled attempt to save face, they have written an excuse directly in the heart of their own polled results.

It really is funny to read:

[…] “So, one poll post-Saturday debate can only reflect there may have been a ‘pause’ as Republican voters take another look at Trump. This happened earlier this summer and he bounced back stronger. We will have to wait this time and see what voters decide.”  (link)

Yes, that little disclaimer is more than a little humorous when you know the backstory.

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Today is one of those days when political junkies realize why CTH is such a desperate threat to the professional political class because tripwires are being triggered in all directions exactly as predicted.  HERE – HERE – HERE

We will get to the NBC nonsense in another discussion thread.

Today, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is endorsing GOPe Marco Rubio, oh, now there’s a shock fail… and the narratives the apoplectic political class are using to accompany the endorsement are so transparent all we can do is laugh at their effort.

Earlier […]  ♦  Now to the endorsements.  Again, go back to the original road-map and cut through the media fog surrounding South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

Haley has done the bidding of the GOPe DC Machine (Ryan, McConnell, etc.) with the SOU response to knock down Donald Trump.   Republican party leadership approved the script.  Governor Haley also spoke highly of Marco Rubio in the 36 hours that followed the controversy.

Absent of GOPe intervention, a Rubio endorsement from her was/is all but certain. (link)

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Virginia is one of those sneakily important states that doesn’t get enough attention unless something dramatic is going on (example: Cantor’s rebuke).  One of the reasons it holds additional merit, is because most of the DC insiders live there.

Virginia is truly unique, because it’s one of those places where the national anxiety between the GOP grassroots and the pontitificting establishment class can be witnessed in the local supermarket.  Seeing a key Mitch McConnell staffer in the same vicinity as an easily accessed dozen eggs, is the stuff vulgarian dreams are made of.  I digress…

The latest poll from Virginia (full pdf below) reflects an increasingly obvious reality – The more Senator Ted Cruz has to rely on bible-thumping, the behinder he gets.

The fight between the professional political class and the ordinary common sense patriots has been happening in Virginia for more than six years now.  Some victories and some defeats on both sides as the political war rages on.

Donald Trump has increased his lead in Virginia to 33%.  Marco Rubio comes in second with 19%, and John Kasich arrives third with 14%. (more…)

The latest CNN/ORC Poll (full pdf below) of South Carolina voters has been released.  Donald Trump remains at the front of the group with a significant lead (38% support), followed by Senator Ted Cruz (22%) and Senator Marco Rubio (14%).

In addition to the top-line results, candidate Trump leads on all the key current event issues amid the South Carolina electorate – with dominating leads in: • the economy, • ISIS, • Immigration and • the best chance to win the general election.

(Via CNN) Donald Trump holds a broad 16-point lead among those likely to vote in South Carolina’s Republican primary this Saturday, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton tops Bernie Sanders by 18 points in the state’s Democratic primary, which will be held a week later. (more…)

Tip from Captain Obvious: In an election year when voters identify all the “go-along-to-get-along” politicians as part of the problem, chasing their endorsements is just, well, silly… but feel free to carry on.

The latest post-debate poll from South Carolina, conducted by PPPolling, shows Ted Cruz slipping backward to catch Marco Rubio; and a candidate field, behind Trump, mired in the mud.

Put another way –  The same inept politicians who ran for three election cycles promising change, yet did nothing except make things worse, are now standing next to even more inept presidential candidates and touting them as the solution for their own ineptitude.

The political gaslighting is no longer effective against an engaged electorate.

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