Last night was a Donald Trump win, period.  A YUGE win.  For context: Donald Trump beat second place, John Kasich, by more votes (currently 51,000) than Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton (currently 50,000).

A resounding victory for the vulgarian rebel alliance. Today, rejoice, dance well, be of good cheer and enjoy.

However, come sunrise we meet at the old mill, and ride south.

What does last night mean for the GOPe road map?  That’s where it gets interesting.

Forget John Kasich;  he is irrelevant as an individual candidate.  Kasich has no organization, no structural pathway, no ballot access and is not a national candidate.  However, his future endorsement of the GOPe candidate (Rubio or Bush) does bring with it his NH delegates…. but that is all.

The biggest loser is also one of our biggest loses, Governor Chris Christie.   By coming in sixth, Christie has failed to make the cut for the upcoming CBS debate.

Debate Qualifications: Top three finish in Iowa, or Top five finish in New Hampshire, or top five polling nationally or in South Carolina.  (link)

In addition to the debate issues and a financial hurdle, the sixth place finish essentially eliminates any path for Chris Christie.   [Team Marco Rubio collectively breathe a sigh of relief.]  However, with Christie gone – Jeb Bush also loses a key strategic partner for his own electoral pathway forward. (more…)

The polls close in New Hampshire at 8:00pm – Results will be coming in throughout the night/evening.  We will keep this thread at the top of the page for discussion as the results come in: WMUR Local Media Results

The Race Has Been Called !!  Trump Wins !!

With 81% of the precincts reporting

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Before watching this video we would humbly request everyone to go back and revisit the previous explanations of what Chris Christie’s role is in this 2016 election cycle.  SEE HERE

Back in the spring of 2014, based entirely on the events of late 2013 and the RNC meetings in February of 2014, we shared the initial set-up for the 2016 GOPe presidential road-map.

At the time we stated in order for the RNC to achieve their objectives, both Chris Christie and Marco Rubio would enter the race for very specific purposes. (more…)

The ABC News debate starts at 8:00pm EST on ABC Broadcast Channels. You can watch on-line at ABC News HERE.  The pre-debate discussion began at 7:00pm

ABC News has partnered with affiliate WMUR, Independent Journal Review, the Republican National Committee and Saint Anselm College.  The audience will be filled with Republican Party insiders.  Progressive favorites David Muir and Martha Raddatz will moderate the debate.

LIVE STREAM HERE

If you are watching – join in with your comments, thoughts and opinions below.

Candidate Donald Trump must have a massive amount of confidence in his New Hampshire operation. Another day passes without any Donald Trump event in/around New Hampshire in the lead-up to the 8pm Saturday ABC Debate at Saint Anslem College.

“A third of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire said they could change their minds before Tuesday, according to a Suffolk University-Boston Globe poll released Friday, which had Trump leading at 29 percent followed by Rubio at 19 percent and Kasich at 13 percent.” (link)

For the Saturday night debate ABC News is partnered with affiliate WMUR, Independent Journal Review, the Republican National Committee and Saint Anselm College.

Progressive favorites David Muir and Martha Raddatz will moderate the debate, and position the narrative to expose the Republican party to as much ridicule and marginalization as possible. (more…)

This is NOT about Carly Fiorina, this is entirely about how blazingly stupid the professional republican party is. Well, actually, “Willfully blind” is perhaps more apropos.

There are essentially eight candidates left in the GOP race: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie, Carson, Kasich, and Fiorina.  ABC announces their debate and SEVEN are going to be on the New Hampshire debate stage.

Who is missing?  Carly Fiorina.

Now before everyone jumps into the ‘she-doesn’t-deserve-it’ argument, or any variant therein, let me repeat – THIS IS NOT ABOUT CARLY FIORINA.  This is entirely about the preferred narrative of ABC and democrat activist, debate moderator, and Clinton foundation leadership member, George Stephanopoulos. (more…)

Watching the media talking about why Chris Christie has such a harsh tone toward Marco Rubio is actually quite funny.  The role of Christie in the GOPe larger political scheme has ALWAYS been to use him as the junk yard dog.

It is, quite simply, his job.

Do you need to go back to Christies’ time as head of the Republican Governors Association and remind yourself when the DC based GOPe apparatus was furious at Scott Walker?… Walker was facing a recall, Christie was given instructions to let him hang, and the RGA sat by doing next to nothing.   This was DC-based punishment for the Tea Party kicking out the chosen GOPe candidates.  Destroying their internal adversaries is what the Old Guard does best.

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A very interesting New Hampshire poll conducted by Reach Communications (full pdf and graph analysis below) for NH1 News, shows Donald Trump with a commanding lead overall 31.7%, and a MASSIVE lead among women voters, 40%.

The Poll is a strong sample size of 1,000 Republicans and Independents, and shows second place belongs to Jeb Bush (11.9%), who is slightly ahead of third place Kasich (11.8%) and followed by Chris Christie (11%):

Looking at the internals below you can see how Donald Trump leads with all sub-categories of voter: Republican and Independents, Men and Women.  However, Trump really extends his overall lead margins with women.

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The latest PPP poll (full pdf below) from New Hampshire reflects a considerable shakeup behind Trump.  Candidate Donald Trump remains at the top holding a significant lead more than double the next competitor, Rubio.

The various wings inside the Deathstar GOPe are now left with factional fighting among themselves – Trump has split the splitters. Rubio attacks Bush who attacks Christie who attacks Kasich who attacks Rubio who attacks Kasich who attacks Christie who attacks Bush etc…

However, with that: Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Jeb Bush have now surpassed a falling Ted Cruz (dropped 3 points from prior PPP poll), and Ben Carson is down in the Fiorina bracket of irrelevance:

(Via PPP Polling) […]  The candidates with the biggest gains since our last poll in early December are Bush (up 5 points from 5% to 10%), Rubio (up 4 points from 11% to 15), and Kasich (up 3 points from 8% to 11%). Bush and Kasich have also had notable gains in their favorability ratings.

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A national poll from Emerson College (full pdf below) shows essentially the same results from recent polling organizations.  Donald Trump with a significant lead at 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 21% and Marco Rubio in third at 13%.

The sample sizes are small, but the results are consistent with larger poll samples (field narrowed to top nine polled results – and graphic adjusted accordingly):

(Methodology Extracted) The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted from Thursday, December 17 through Sunday, December 20, 2015. (more…)