Take heart, we only need to wait approximately 60-days until we see a major price decline in diesel and gasoline prices in the USA. Once the midterm election is over, prices will begin their retreat with the finished collapse mid-January.
The non-pretending reality exists within a generally non-western perspective that current “market prices” are not driven by oil supplies, refining capacity or the other various justifications used by the speculators, traders and various regional spot-market control systems. The prices are being controlled in order to influence political outcomes.
Once those political influence operations are concluded, the stakeholders in the market price approach will moderate their justifications accordingly, and prices will plummet. Sound nuts? Well, let me explain who agrees.
On my side of the argument is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, who does happen to operate the world’s largest gasoline station – at least, according to the professional republicans. Others on my side include Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon, Qatari Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Venezuelan interim President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez.
Others who accept the reality of this position, albeit with various political limits to their ability to speak openly about such matters, include President Donald J Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Unfortunately for this aligned group they are stuck inside the largest western political system who controls global finance and world economic outcomes.
What all of these aforementioned names understand is that “market prices” are entirely detached from the archaic terminology behind supply and demand; a quaint concept that stopped applying years ago – but pretenses must be maintained or else the masses may find their pitchforks, see: DSA pitchfork suppliers.
A second subset of allies who unintentionally support this perspective, includes those who use the terms “sold at a discount” where “sold at a discount” in reality means sold outside the western market pricing approach.
How many times have you seen the term “sold at a discount” repeated when you are reading about former Venezuela oil being sold to China, or current Russian oil being sold to India?
It’s such a common term it is accepted without anyone ever asking, ‘what is this discount you speak of, and how is it applied’? No-one seems to ask that part.
We accept this terminology created by “western market pricing” advocates just as we accepted the term “service driven economy” in the era before Donald Trump.
The reality is that ‘western market prices’ are not an outcome of supply, demand or even availability or production capacity. Western market prices are determined by speculators, traders and regional benchmarks created by “independent agencies.”
Remember those pesky housing loan bond rating agencies, Standard and Poor’s and/or Moody’s during the lead-in to the 2008 financial crisis. That type of rating ‘independence’ is akin to the benchmarks of these regional independent agencies within the energy markets; which is to say, they are not independent at all – they are part of the manipulated western financial system that determines ‘market pricing’.
Behind that curtain are the traders, speculators, ideological banks and financial systems who create the finance system for the energy market. Want to stop oil exploitation, change the lending requirements to favor windmills and solar panels etc. Not coincidentally changing these lending rules and regulations was Mark Carney’s former job. Does that sound like an open market approach?
Thus, when you really understand how this pricing is structured you begin to realize the price of diesel has nothing to do with the supply of it and the price is more controlled by those who wish to generate financial -or political- outcomes from it.
You don’t have to take my word for it, review the words of the world’s largest oil/gas producer about this rigged game. {SEE HERE} Wouldn’t Vladimir Putin be the subject matter expert?
“How, in fact, is the price of gas formed on the European exchanges? It is not determined by producers, but by exchange traders.”
In essence, right now “the west”, specifically Americans, are paying fuel costs based on market commodity prices. The most recent examples are oil, LNG and now the headline leading, diesel fuel. However, the actual supply of diesel fuel is not driving the price. The price is being driven by speculation and trading, which is based on arbitrary price formulas created by western multinational corporations and financial markets.
Right now, Russia is overproducing diesel fuel, and shipping it out of the country to allies. Yet diesel prices in the west are determined by commodity traders, and the pricing mechanism is disconnected from the supply. {SEE HERE}
This is why Secretary Bessent essentially said yesterday, he was “evaluating” calls for a U.S. export ban on diesel. Bessent knows it makes no sense to halt U.S. exports of diesel fuel, because (a) the US has no ability to store it, and (b) if we produce more than we can store, that doesn’t lower the USA price.
Our US diesel supply doesn’t lower the US diesel price because the price is set by market traders, by the western financial markets, not by production or supply. There is a disconnect. It’s the same reason why Oranges grown in Florida cost the same as Oranges shipped into Minnesota. Local supply does not determine local price; the rigged commodity market does.
The USA could be swimming in diesel fuel and yet the price at the pump remains $6/gal.
Ironically, or not, Sylvain Charlebois, a Canadian describing the potash issue, exposed the western price manipulation in this article {SEE HERE} when ultimately, he asks, ‘how can Belarus sell potash so cheap’, and ‘Belarus could put pressure on Canadian potash prices’.
If Potash pricing is determined by western market commodity prices, then how can America get a cheaper fertilizer product for their farmers by buying from Belarus? The answer is in the part of the conversation they don’t want us to have.
Belarus can ship the product far cheaper to the USA because Belarus doesn’t need to participate in the “western commodity” pricing structure. Belarus can increase production and sell at a price they determine, exactly like Russia.
Apply this level of potash thinking to oil, gas or diesel fuel, and you realize what BRICS have been arguing about western price manipulation. Suddenly the price is not attached to supply, demand or production capacity, but is really connected to an elite rigged game of market price controls.
The price of USA gasoline and diesel will drop as soon as the event behind the price control is concluded.
That event is the USA midterm election.
I’m sorry but I did not understand this analysis.
Speculators and traders are PART of the market. Always have been.
Market price is the level that reflects what ALL market participants are willing to pay at any given instant in time. This includes the traders and speculators, as well as the consumers, middlemen, and investors.
I don’t understand how any single participant can “control” the commodity price in this context.
You first have to stop or erase your historic contexts and start over. It’s not an individual trader issue. AI now has algorithmic bots to act as thousands of traders simultaneously speculating. Those thousands are actually one person.
Anyone know
WHO is / are
the “one person” (s)?
🤔
It is not “1-individual” but a few hundred very rich individuals who can hide their names under the FINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANIES that compose the Hedge Funds and larger FINANCIAL Holding Companies used as the sources of cash by the speculators.
The Speculators are the agents (much like the Financial STOCK Market Players; Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, …) of the HOLDING COMPANIES and HEDGE FUNDS doing the buying, mainly via the Commodity Futures Markets.
The other BIG DIFFERENCE TODAY is the urgent need to stop President Trump, who was one of them and knows what Speculators are doing … and who is threatening to collapse their hold over the financial power of the Global Corporation, which operate counter to national interests f the US.
Thanks. Makes sense. Especially if making a profit is not the end goal.
The profit in this scenario is the political outcome, and if it is achieved.
Makes a great talking point for Democrats. They are behind everything EVIL, going on in this Country.
Do not worry, they make/use to make, tons of money when they control the price of say oil and can stop/start oil shipments via Iran when they want to. If you can control a markets direction, you then know how to paper trade; therefore, you can make tons of money when they lever up 100X say on a derivative. Like thedoc said, Trump and Bessent are trying to end the rigging.
A click of a mouse ..
Good opportunity to make a few bucks. These are the kinds of things ordinary people can see without fancy spreadsheets and talk about fibonatti crap. 99% of people should just do index funds (15-20%yoy) but if you’re going to step out of that safe zone these kinds of things are good spots to do that. Everything is rigged yes but it’s managable. There are still opportunities.
Fibonacci is real math, not crap. It is used to describe real life problems and help solve them.
In my opine
It all boils down to who controls the money to manipulate the commodity markets.
Same as silver price manipulation?
Banks too big to fail with an agenda?
Idealogues who want to destoy our Republic?
I have been hearing for decades ” the reason .Gov controls food prices, is so us plebes can afford consumer goods”
Thanks Sundance now I get it I never considered the affect of AI in all this makes sense now
And the market volatility is induced by…..drum roll……LONDON.
Ignoring the US deep state is dangerous. They are helping drive the anti-Trump unaffordability train.
@ sundance
> 30 years
O&G, International Asset Management,
Infrastructure Projects
This is much needed Discourse
Your above reply has the best result when REAL meditation on what its implications are
@the doc00 above
excellent reply
ive spent years watching from an international perspective and and genuinely grieved at how many
“informed” individuals
chase the gold back currency etc etc
international finance and commodities trading are the control levers
and
politics is an illusion
it will never be a solution
unless it gets people looking at mainstreet and the supply chain
the $ is backed by oil
the % is controlled centrally
data. . .
is a new oil
and
the data centers are for banking
not web surfing
the only solution is to follow the money
and that cant be done in the digital age
with websters dictionary and the constitution
the new currency will be asset backed tokens
gold, oil, timber, rice, silver, soy etc
held as collateralized assets
dispensed through credit lines
and the public writ large will be fully controlled at point of sale
if people dont wake up to whats coming
and
educate themselves
on
trusts
LLCs
Equity
securities
and
financial regulations
blacks law
GAAP manual
Insurance Regulations
etc etc
it will be nearly impossible for them to be free
When supply vs demand is not the price driver GREED becomes the price driver as is this issue.
A few very select people are making these decisions, compare it to the federal reserve. If you understand fiat money compared to inflation this makes a lot of sense.
Would a fuel card (much like a gift card) that could hold gallons of fuel for the consumer be an answer to trading? Because then an entire population is working to purchase at a low price and have delivery at an higher price. I could choose, at a price I desire, to pre purchase fuel at type and grade. I can see a need for limits and perhaps a small storage fee, but could this be a way to stabilize and lower prices? I am guessing too that the fuel companies would have varying levels of reciprocity.
CFTC commitment of Traders report bears you out. I posted the numbers below , on the NY diesel futures
I won’t try to even help you to understand it, because some of it is very idiotic, too me. This explains how it works. If you do read it, do it slowly and think about it.
Crude Oil Pricing: A Guide to How the Market Actually Works
I might be wrong, but I would think that this hasn’t helped.
Obama, O’Biden, Newsom, perhaps others.
according to this analysis, there is no shortage – just speculation: so the closed refineries are not relevant right now.
Which I understood, Muley..
As Sundance says, complicated business.
The closures are fuel to speculate high prices.
Correct. They’ve been closed even before the Iran war but diesel prices has never been this much out of sync with gasoline. It’s other reasons.
No, that it did not, helping! Call it corruption.
I did post on this on this article. Wrote manipulation and corruption has a big effect on price do to overwhelming greed.
Amen Betsy 🇺🇸🤠🇺🇸
Thanks for that. Combined with SD’s response, I understand how the mechanics work.
Still….somebody is happy to potentially lose a lot of money to do this manipulation.
When you bet that the price will be high, you win twice if the price goes high. you win buying low and selling high and you win the bet.
WHO ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? I don’t know anyone who has a gas station in their back yard. If prices are low all you can do is fill up a few gas cans.
Do you know anyone who bets money on the price and stores the gas/oil at home?
Yes. Speculators. It’s all “on paper”, not the physical product.
I did that once, and won.
Except it wasn’t against people manipulating the price of oil, it was against a hurricane. Hurricanes in the Gulf shut down production, price rises, hurricane goes away, oil rigs restart, price drops. It takes about a month.
I’d had my diesel car for a year. I bought 20 gal of diesel, the price went up, I drove at 50 mph, a month later I’d used up the 20 gal, the price had gone back down. 1050 miles on 20 gallons. It’s the best financial decision I’ve ever made. (I am definitely not a financial wizard, I’d get hosed if I tried anything else.)
I did that too for years. But the cans got too big for me to lift and I missed the destabilizer application so two full ones in the garage need to go.
In the futures markets, you can also sell what you don’t own, hoping to buy it to close your position at a price lower the you sold “it” for. A good trader or AI (SI) program makes money in both up AND down markets, A classic explanation of this can be found in the movie, Trading Places”, an enjoyable film to relieve you of the stresses of today’s living.
The price to remove MAGA.
Perhaps it is better to remove every cheating, stealing democrat who never works just takes, takes,takes and never says thank you only what else have you done for me.
Get a job and take care of yourself.
If you make yourself a middle person in the sale of an item that is bought and sold daily and you receive a .02% commission on a product such as crude oil, you are making a fortune, yet the daily sales would continue with or without you. Yet by your own creation you have made yourself very important to the sale of this product.
(no U2 jokes wordman)
“Belarus/BRICS” are not playing within the system you are describing.
They are playing on an alternate, but parallel system.
Russia is *not* overproducing diesel compared to recent years (2025 and prior). It is producing less diesel overall than prior years. This is due to the targeting of refineries that has knocked down Russian diesel production significantly. They have recovered some capacity since June and the exports in the article Sundance references are specifically to those countries Russia has not put under the export ban (former SSRs; i.e. countries ending in “stan”). Other countries have had to bid on world market (Turkey, Brazil) and are driving up demand for non-Russian diesel. Presumably, if the war in over Ukraine ends, Russian supply will ramp up and we will have a surplus. But if attacks continue to suppress Russian refinery production, that happy end will not come about. There is still a strong fundamental supply and demand market dynamic here. The proximal cause of the non-market influence is Putin’s restriction on the sale of diesel to only a limited set of bordering countries once in the Soviet orbit.
What I don’t understand is why any professional commodity trader, oil and natural gas trader, financial brokers, Wall Street firms, shipping industry, oil and gas company or anyone who makes a living in the shark invested world of Capitalism would be working overtime to replace President Trump with the Communist, Woke, Climate Change lunatics in the Democrat Party who are filling multiple lawsuits via Lawfare against oil companies like seeking trillions in climate damags like:
ExxonMobil
Chevron
British Petroleum
Royal Dutch Shell
…as well as regulations to ban gasoline powered cars and trucks while forcing the use of solar and wind. Why would an industry commit economic suicide when President Trump has protected them as well as cut taxes for them?
Because their leaders are Freemasons first, Global Citizens second and Americans LAST.
With Trump out of the way they can make EVEN more money.
Green agenda returns. Covid vaccines return. Hunan trafficking returns. Use your imagination. It’s not just about petroleum companies. That’s just one aspect of the portfolio.
And corporations NEVER “pay” taxes. Never. That cost is passed on to the consumer inside the price of the goods. They don’t absorb that expense.
Ok and in 60 days Nevada will lose the only Republican in the house and maybe our governor.
PDJT has made a major mistake giving Iran any benefit of the doubt.
Thia has nothing to do with Iran, aside from a narrative that has been built by MSM and the International Media, that somehow the doubling of fuel cost in America has to do with the 5-7% of oil we get through the Hormuz.
Yeah, but we have millions of voters who don’t understand that.
So you expect our president to not do what is in the best interest of the country because millions of voters are just too stupid? Well, bless your heart.
We expected no new wars. BECAUSE HE SAID NO NEW WARS.
You people have completely lost the plot. You care way more about Trump than you do God and country.
How is Iran, since 1979, openly demanding the destruction of the USA all of a sudden President Trump’s war?
You okay with the insanity of the Iranian regime having nukes just so’s you gots your
$1.00 cheaper fuel?
Many people will say “yes”, because Iran isn’t a threat to the United States. They talk big, but that’s about it.
Lower gas prices + midterms won = worth skipping that war.
Trump took a risk on Iran and will have to take an “L” on it and the midterms.
After the freaks and other low value humans win the midterms in a blowout, we’ll look back on this ONE BIG MISTAKE and wish it had never come to pass.
But, Trump tends to trump predictions. Maybe he’ll do it again in November.
YOU FORGOT the President. Say a prayer for him so he can do things like a deal with Denmark to keep the Chinese Communists and the Russians out of Greenland and the Artic Circle out of becoming another war zone
Do you really think that Denmark a member of NATO since it’s inception and who has given the United States unlimited military access to Greenland since 1940 allowing the U.S. to have multiple military bases and thousands of American troops in Greenland is going to give Russia or China permission to put military bases there?
By the way, Russia already has a thousand mile border along with Arctic Circle.
And what if he had access to intelligence that there was a threat in the foreseeable future, perhaps near future, that would have gotten us into an even bigger and more costly war?
Would you take steps to try and head it off at the pass, even if it meant you’d be seen as breaking a promise, or would you ‘stand on your principles’ and allow it to transpire?
Which one would be closer to caring about God and country?
‘You people.’
Got it.
That was a peculiar choice of words, wasn’t it?
A troll’s vocabulary
It’s not a NEW war, it’s him finishing a War that started in 1979. You’ve been suffering because of that war, and the acquiescence you demand from your presidential candidates, for the last 50 years and you finally have a man ending it, while you throw rocks and hide behind your glass curtain.
💩 happens. Do you honesty believe Trump wanted to go to war with Iran? Of course not. But in the real world, responsible leaders have to make hard, unpopular choices.
Don’t be that kid at the grocery store whining because his mother decided not to buy him a candy bar. Get over it.
You’d rather some lunatic theocracy have a few nukes right now?
God raised up Trump to save our Country. We don’t worship Trump. But if you think he dodged that bullet within milliseconds and two other assassination attempts because he’s lucky, you are the lost one.
I identify MY COUNTRY and MY PRESIDENT As MY HERO.
The millions of people who hate Trump and everything he says and does, just because, are most definitely just too stupid.
TDS (a democrat-controlled mass media induced mental illness) is a creation of deceitful government insiders using gossipy, inuendo propaganda pushing newsrooms all around the country to sow division. Those who suffer from TDS are not stable people and people who are not stable make really bad choices.
Perhaps you are just short sighted while the people understand it (excluding democrats who understand nothing in the first place
THE PROBLEM Paul is Nevada and the crooked Mormons running Nevada.
Last time I checked they ran Utah.
Paul if only you had been President, think how much better off we would be. The Hubris of random internet forum posters never ceases to amaze me. Imagine you, sitting on your couch, calling out the President’s ‘mistakes’ when he’s out there taking a bullet trying to save the country and you are sitting criticizing in hindsight. Disgusting.
Laughable actually.
It is sad to see so many who have no idea how the market works.
It’s not taught unless that’s your major.
This is the same angle that Promethean Action has been pushing. The price is set by the commodities brokers in “the city of London” such that speculators can maximize their profits. I don’t doubt that, but it kind of skips over the entire reason such exchanges were created – to provide “price discovery”. If the price were just a matter of production cost plus desired profit then what is the incentive for lower production cost or more production volume? And without the commodities market producers would have no way to hedge, putting their existence at risk. And if it’s just production cost that sets the price then by definition that says that nothing else matters. Not transportation risk, war, weather, politics, technology, etc. I don’t think I can subscribe to that.
So there is some truth to what they are saying. Third party market makers aren’t performing that function out of altruism. And sure, they are absolutely in a position to rig the game for political reasons. The commodity is just the vehicle to derive profit from, is doesn’t matter what it is, corn, oil, political influence. But when you are taking your economic advice from communists like Putin I think you have to take a step back and ask if that makes sense.
I will assure you to the best of my understanding that your understanding surpasses that of the Promethean Action group. Numbers are methodically reported, and they do not bear out Susan.
As with all things Globalist, it has been politicized for decades. And that IS the point. The notion that “free” market is controlling the price through supply and demand signals is illusionary. It isn’t. And what was more difficult to manipulate in real time 50 years ago, can now be done instantaneously on regional and global market scales. Want to change the leadership of a nation? Manipulate it’s costs for commodity goods domestically or anywhere participants are linked to the system.
It is as Sundance noted: a manipulative tool to change the outcome of the midterm elections. The regular person only sees that he/she may have new, well paying job, but it is being swallowed by the artificially inflated cost of energy. The cost of getting it out of the ground hasn’t changed. The cost of refining it hasn’t changed. In fact, none of the underlying structures from production to pump have had costs altered significantly at all. Even the Iran War is not the 800 pound gorilla that the media and globalists want you to think it is.
That just leaves the globalist cabal that controls the Western market prices for its participants.
Is it the commodities exchange that is manipulating the price or is the exchange being manipulated by the politicized press’ manipulation of the facts and perceived risks involved with the commodity? The traders on the exchange supposedly act on information. Who finds and disseminates the information? Who interpretes and shapes gathered information before distributing it?
As I said, I have no doubt market makers are acting to maximize their profits, but they have to have justifications the their actions and the “news” is it whether that news is fact or fiction.
“Is it the commodities exchange that is manipulating the price or is the exchange being manipulated by the politicized press’ manipulation of the facts and perceived risks involved with the commodity?”
M, it’s that nobody is manipulating the market.
The markets are reported on, analyzed, by intelligent people of differing and even opposed positions. Price is the sum total agreement of all those positions. There are factual reports on the positions sizing of all classes of participants issued regularly by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the US regulator of record. There has never been even a whiff of suspicion about those numbers. These are called the Commitment of Traders Reports, and are public domain.
Please understand that I know no one is going to be my friend by my saying any of this. I’m addressing this to your comment because I see sincerity there. I will state outright that the current US diesel markets show zero signs of manipulation, and I am going to explain why. I am going to use the New York exchange data. First, a word about Brent.
The Brent futures generally run a bit higher than WTI because of local production and delivery cost. Never mind details, it is the net effect that the various exchanges can not get their prices out of a normal differential or arbitrage will come into play and rebalance prices between markets. That is to say that participants will buy on the lower price exchange and sell on the higher if they can see profit in so doing. So, it really doesn’t matter in macro which exchange you discuss, I just don’t want to have to deal with all the exchanges individually. So,
“And that IS the point. The notion that “free” market is controlling the price through supply and demand signals is illusionary. It isn’t.” – This from my neighbor in ET.
A manipulated market will show high volume with lots of churn. That means the total number of contracts of all expirations traded will be very high. This is called open interest. Also, the volume traded per unit time should peak. Both can be seen on a price chart in real time. I am currently looking at the chart on the Schwab Think or Swim Platform. I will screen shot the chart and attempt to upload it onto this comment from the simulation chart. It may not work, so please, excuse it.
Well, I did the chart wrong. But I am trying to show and explain that the market data, the volume, the open interest, who is long and short, shows that there is no manipulation.
The truth is I am not surprised that Susan Kokinda would make claims without showing proof, particularly because there is no proof.
I am beyond disappointed that Sundance would make the same claims. Show us your numbers, sir. I know these markets. There is zero evidence of bots trading up prices, manipulation of any sort. The markets are actually rather quiet now, surprisingly so.
I appreciate what you’re saying. I guess my main point would be better phrased by saying IF there is any “manipulation” going on, and that’s a loaded, inaccurate term in any case, the commodities brokers and exchanges aren’t doing the manipulation and more than the Internet is guilty of stealing someone’s money when a hacker uses the Internet to do so.
I think that the price can be indirectly biased (although to what degree I don’t know) but it gets done in a chain. Manipulators give biased information to the press; the press “reports” that information, sometimes to excess (hype); collective viewpoints are formed by the public (including people who need to buy or hedge commodities); which affects the price of the commodity. The exchange price is only going to reflect the price that people put on the commodity, no matter how they came to that price.
yes, and I apologize for my inability to insert a chart that would make this much more clear. I have chastised others for not showing there numbers when I failed to do so. I need a tutoring session from Betsy.
Sundance, I’m scratching my head a bit. Are you saying that the drastic drop in supply of fuel and fertilizer due to the Iran war didn’t cause drastically higher prices for the same?
Or that Trump was mistaken for asking Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, out of concern for less supply?
My own work overlaps with energy markets and, yes, it’s true that speculation plays a part in pricing but in my 30 years of experience, the core factors are truly grounded in supply, production issues.
They’re just filling the void until they get wrecked in midterms and their new improved Orange Jesus gets himself impeached.
You must be new here. Best to sit still and read for awhile before speaking up.
My money is he/ she/ it has been here before…🤔
Yes. Just a new name on old idiocy.
Who is they?
Open racism shouldn’t be tolerated on this board.
Thank goodness, someone else who actually understands real world economics!
Trust me, my head was spinning too. Hahahaha.
I can barley stand up. I think I need a longer vacation.
It’s less of a ploy to actually influence the election outcomes (it doesn’t really make moderates think that the DSA is a good idea) – it’s more of a ploy to use the narrative as rationalization after the fact, when seemingly the Uniparty has just enough votes/wins to achieve their desired outcome. This is why the media is heavily involved, before and after the event.
“Suddenly the price is not attached to supply, demand or production capacity, but is really connected to an elite rigged game of market price controls.”
The Promethean folks have been saying this for some time, that the controls are centered in the old City of London and its affiliated banks, insurances, funds, speculators, etc., etc. They say President Trump is upsetting this whole system, but so far it seems that he is still a prisoner of it.
Maybe it’s time for a dramatic re-alignment: Knock the old system back on its heels; create a new US/Russia/Arab Gulf (USRA) energy alliance, and take control of the prices!
Next week, President Trump will announce: “As of today, USRA oil will be $40 a barrel! The store is open!”
The Promethean folks have been making a string of incorrect predictions.
The accents seem to fool some people. They’re about as reliable as Q.
Yes, it’s someone down in the basement of the London Bridge, I’m sure.
Maybe this short video (23 minute) will help people understand how markets can be controlled:
Here’s a summary:
“This video examines how Britain used trade deficits, shipping, insurance, financial clearing, and colonial intermediaries to redirect silver flows through its own economic system. By controlling trade routes, settlement mechanisms, and credit access, Britain shaped the global silver economy without formal ownership or direct extraction.”
Just substitute silver currency for oil, food, … by controlling shipping, insurance, futures markets, …. When people talk about “City of London” this is referring to how the old british colonial system learned to control things from afar…
Whatever happened to Lloyd’s of London after Trump said the US would cover shippers if Lloyd’s were to cancel thir insurance. Was that just Trump rattling Londons chain?
They slapped back with the threat of cancelling insurance (indefinitely, aka. for good) for any shipping company who took him up on his offer.
Yep, same old city of london trick with taking a cut of the action.
Open interest is a bit under 300,000 contracts now. A few years ago, it was 400000. Commercial interest are net short and have been all year. The only group substantially long is the speculators and retail traders, who on most recent reports are net long 12000 plus contracts. That won’t move the market. All basis NY, I did not look up others. Brent’s always highest, it’s cost basis not manipulation, except that involved in skewing the cost basis.
It is interesting that the big money has been so short during tight supply. Reserves globally are truly thin, well below average. That suggest, as the article here does, continued expectations of a reversal, and possibly, forward selling because prices are elevated. That’s not that hard to see, I should have looked at that while at my desk.
Hope it helps.
Sundance is right, this is algorithm driven but the AI algorithm is predicting reversion to the mean. You are actually seeing historic models drive prices down rather than up.
Goldman Sacs doesn’t care who wins in the mid terms – they own both parties.
Oil will be higher in January than it is now. Demand increases in winter and there is no new supply coming online. Most signs point to even less supply in the near term.
Please understand that I am not bickering and want no disagreement with you or any one else here.
There is vast information readily available to anyone who is conversant in the markets.
Activity on the futures market can not be hidden. Please find data that shows algorithmic trading affecting the normal flow of this market. You can’t, it isn’t there.
“this is algorithm driven but the AI algorithm is predicting reversion to the mean” I don’t know what you are trying to say. Everything from the temperature, rainfall, and our own weight reverts to the mean.
And by the way, the petroleum futures markets lead the retail price by a few weeks. I have no idea whether oil in general will be higher in January, but I can tell you the seasonal low is in the winter, not the summer.
“The prices are being controlled in order to influence political outcomes.”
With price relief projected in 60 days, the mission of the influencers has succeeded. Unfortunately, delayed gratification will not likely win voters who are fixated on fuel prices and lack an understanding of the associated politics.
They shouldn’t have to have an understanding. That’s the same argument Liberals make when they lose. “The people are too stupid to understand” “They’re uneducated” ETC
We should not be like them.
It appears Trump is hoping the weirdo socialists + Democrats lack of any offering other than “Orange Man Bad” + loyal MAGA will win.
Hope it works.
Insightful
This makes me ill, not sure why as I have apent my professional career in AgriBussiness and Caegill,ADM,Bungee and a couple of other have been hurting American farmers for decades using the same market strategies put forth in this article.
ABC Grain Cartel.
It’s remarkable how some “farmers” out here in Dogpatch seem to be able to simultaneously afford expensive land rental cost and a constant supply of fancy new machinery when most are scraping by with old stuff and duct tape. The high roller’s output isn’t superior and it’s most often inferior by comparison, and I’ve done plenty of recon.
I’m just a guy who pays attention to such matters and am speculating that perhaps the Cartel is making the land payments to control acres. Occam’s Razor…..
money laundering?
Too bad that Trump didn’t time his swimming in diesel much earlier so he could FAVORABLY influence the election.
Lol, of course it is 60 days. The cabal plans on counting almost to the end of November until they get the number they want to take H, S and ir both.
so, if there is no actual shortage and supply/demand is a quaint outmoded way to think of things, the admin will not need to implement diesel export bans. in fact, it greatly benefits american companies to profit by selling something for such a premium that is NOT in short supply.
Indeed.
If there’s no accurate price discovery the average Joe will never know how much they were ripped off.
Goes double for everything downrange of that fuel price.
Doesn’t the GDP # come out just before the midterm? Should be a hum dinger of a number! From AI so take it for what’s its worth:
“The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 5.1% as of September 17, 2026″
I am Trump 110% and hope for the absolute best for November (no thanks to Traitor Thune and the rest). We do have to realize that if he/we don’t get the midterms…….a good many team members…….and some fairly high up (inside the top 4-5, not VP of course), potentially may start to jump ship.
Once you realize the FUTURE PRICE of a commodity like oil is manipulated so that the Buyers will make a profit, it is not hard to realize they can/will manipulate the prices for political purposes also.
Then we ramp up our own production, refining and storage of all energy sources and disconnect ourselves from that game.
See Venezuela, reductions in regulation in the U.S. energy markets, Greenland, building stronger relationships with M.E. partners through business without setting them up to fail over ideological differences in the Israel/Palestine conflict.
We need to win A.I., and that will require immense energy and low costs. We can’t depend on our EU “green” “allies” at this time.
we dont need to ramp up production if there is no shrotage.
I said “and storage”. We need to insulate ourselves from their game.
just in time for the next round of impeachment hearings after the Dems take / are given the House.
It’s all rinse & repeat.
I don’t know about supply and demand being archaic. When you look at a chart showing price movement over 25 years, you see those price swings one being 2008, china demand and low-capacity output pushed oil to over 140 a barrel. Then financial collapse demand slowed, oil 40 a barrel.
Supply/Demand, with equilibrium would create stability for the average guy as far as commodities go and with their targeted 2% inflation built in, you have a profit margin. But what fun would that be, where would you find the opportunity to be greedy.
Would not say archaic, more like manipulated and corrupted to benefit the few.
Money changers cast out, where there will be weeping and knashing of teeth.
The war turned the extortionists loose. It could be over by now if planned and executed properly. DJT’s narcissism has interfered with his better judgment. The R’s will be very lucky to survive the midterms in the majority!
As long as it drops and stays there. Like everyone else, I’m getting sick of these .50, .60 and .75 cent overnight price swings and sometimes it goes up that much during the day. When I left my house Friday morning, the closest station was $3.53, by mid-afternoon, it was $3.99. Currently it’s $3.93. Gas in my area was sitting right at $2 a gallon this January with some stations even in the low $1.90 range. Once the Iran BS started, it immediately spiked to over $3 and I have not seen gas below $3.20 ever since.
Let’s not forget price manipulation by entities such as Lloyds of London. If the City of London wants higher gas, diesel or heating oil prices, all of a sudden the premiums on oil tanker cargo gets way more expensive. They recently tried this in the Persian Gulf, before the US began insuring and escorting shipping in that region.
Name these demons.
Sundance, thanks for such a sobering analysis of the totally rigged game, as painful as it is to accept. Are you able to say how long it has been this way?
If only the demented one you voted for was still in office.
Roughly 60 days? Then that could be 40 days when we begin to see a substantial decline in gas and desiel prices or a consistent drop in price.
People keep looking for “names” and the WHO??
The real money and culprits are not the Speculators … they are the Purchasing Agents … akin to the major Stocks and Bonds Trading entities … i.e like Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard.
In the case of Commodities and Commodity Futures it’s Hedge Funds and Financial Holding Companies doing the buying. The actual “people” can spread and hide their involvement across layers of Holding Companies and Hedge Funds. The protection of the names, tax treatment and rules governing Hedge funds and Holding Companies was (still is) the RED LINE that nearly derailed the 2017 “Trump Tax cuts”, which included major changes to rules and treatment of hedge funds and Holding Companies. It was the REPUBLICAN FREEDOM CAUCUS, who were threatening the Trump Tax Cuts over this issue.
While it is true hedge funds and Holding companies have always played in the commodity pricing markets … the reason they have become so blatantly and publicly obvious is that a person with INSIDE KNOWLEDGE as to how they work, President Trump, is threatening their power and control over the Global Corporation which operates counter to as well as independently of the benefit of the US and US Citizens.
I think Epstein helped setup the shell companies to hide who was involved …
Nice post. I recently tried to explain to someone that there was in fact no scarcity of potash, rather that the market was controlled, and it benefits some to have people meekly swallow the notion that 1. there was a potash shortage; 2. it was scarce; 3. that was the reason why it was so expensive/unavailable.
There are some things, like beef, where we do have a shortage — that’s because our cattle herds are very depleted and it will take time to build them back up again. But even in the realm of food proteins production, much of the reason for the pricing is due to markets being cornered (mainly through the processers). Something, by the way this administration has addressed.
Nothing like creating artifical shortages, the new and improved supply and demand.
I think the reason the Trump administration is discussing halting diesel exports is for optics later in the game. Its not that they believe it will have a meaningful impact. They too are probably expecting massive decease in prices once the political value of driving them upwards has vanished. By saying this now, he can boomerang their political stunt and take credit for the drop.
Going to say this again Trump needs to
! Order to stop exporting Diesel, gasoline and crude oil, Maybe Oil companies would stop ripping USA Off so they can control midterms, They The oil companies are not YOUR Friends! Mr President!
The United States exports roughly 5.2 to 5.8 million barrels of crude oil and about 900,000 barrels of motor gasoline per day.https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f4ca.svg Daily U.S. Energy ExportsCrude Oil: ~5.2–5.8 million barrels per day (surging due to global supply disruptions).Motor Gasoline: ~900,000 barrels per day (about 10% of domestic production).Total Petroleum Products: ~10.7 million barrels per day (including diesel, jet fuel, and other liquids).https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f4a1.svg Why Exports Matter LocallyGlobal Pricing: Even though the U.S. produces significant crude, prices at local gas stations in Texas and nationwide follow international markets.Supply Balances: High overseas demand pulls domestic supply abroad, which can keep local fuel prices elevated despite high domestic production.
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Global physical commodity markets are linked by the cost of transportation between different locations. Since the US is often the top world exporter of diesel, there is going to be a price linkage between the US market and the destination market, in this case EU, which needs more diesel supply. In effect, the US consumer ends up paying more for diesel because US producers are shipping excess supply out of the country. Price is absolutely linked to supply/demand in the different locations, and the ability to ship product between the locations links their prices as well. How to solve the US price problem while still helping the EU who needs diesel? Export tariffs.
How does President Trump and company break this?
The issue is not so much trading and speculating. Commodity producers and consumers have to hedge their investments against undesired outcomes outside of their control. Hence a large petroleum consumer (think UPS size) may buy options to better control budgets around future fuel costs. Corn farmers hedge the sale of their crops to ensure against a loss caused by ideal weather conditions that increase supply above normal levels.
The problem is the manipulation of supply and demand in order to create artificial conditions in which to control both spot pricing and futures. Hence the lack of enthusiasm around securing the Hormuz Strait – it has been useful for manipulating supply.
“potash”
Fortunately on our side we have one Very Stable Genius.
“I might do it.
I might not do it.
I might have already done it.
Nobody knows.”
– Trump Tzu
https://t.ly/EHUpW
I live my best life daily and loving my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ is the easiest and truest thing in my life… But WOW just when you think that you can’t hate these people anymore 💥 they just keep breathing 😂👀🙌🏼
❤️🇺🇸🙏🏼🇺🇸❤️
Reports Sec of Energy Wright is not in agreement with a 90 day ban….
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/definitely-doesnt-work-us-energy-sec-rejects-diesel-export-ban-risks-creating-bigger-supply
Just returned today visiting relatives in Chile. Price of gasoline there was ~5.90 USD per gallon, while diesel was ~6.40 USD per gallon. I confess I do not know the tax situation there on motor fuels, but these fuels have the Chile VAT of 19%, at minimum taxes. Almost of their petroleum and petroleum product come from within South America.
I do know the octane rating of gasoline there for “regular” is 92. In addition, keep in mind that the energy content for diesel is significantly greater than for gasoline due to its density being greater and that it has no added ethanol. (Not to complicate the comparison further, gasoline can have more water content due to the ethanol, than diesel – note that even vegetable oils can have moisture contents up to 2%!).
Yes, the price for diesel here is very fishy, and no doubt a major factor is the upcoming mid-terms. The underlying price of petroleum does not justify diesel prices of $6.50!
Gas prices will come down because we are entering the Christmas shopping season and the banks want people to feel good enough about things that they will max out their credit cards. It’s psychological manipulation and it works.
Think about the jump of the price of gold (a commodity) immediately after the hostages were taken from the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The spot price jumped from about 95$ to 800$ overnight. This price was aided and abetted by commodity traders exploiting a reaction to fear. The supply and demand for gold hadn’t changed. Only the traders making market changed because of this windfall of geopolitical opportunity.
Looking at what President Trump has done since retake the office, interesting.
He has shifted the center of the supply of oil natural gas market to the USA or better the western hemisphere away from the middle east. He has taken those choak points and made them irrelevant. He has stopped the illicit trading outside of the market, no more cheating or navy is patrolling the oceans/seas rounding up the shadow ships and much more than this. It is just Brillant.
More stability no more supply shock, like in the 70’s and all the rest that has happened over the years. It comes down to the USA will control the life’s blood of the world and insure stability. Find the equilibrium.
The democrats will shut all this down. Do we want that?
Just in time to reward at Demonrat victory in November.
Too late for the midterms.
World oil production is down because of the stalemate in the Persian Gulf. The Persian Gulf oil shortage is being met in large part by a price induced decrease in oil demand, increased production from the rest of the global oil suppliers, and releases from the world’s strategic reserves. If the stalemate in the Persian Gulf continues the world’s strategic reserves are eventually going to run out. The clock is ticking and by January the strategic reserves will be perilously closer to being at the bottom of the barrel. Oil and diesel prices are only bound to increase unless oil starts flowing from the Persian Gulf again.
What is missing from your argument is 40% of the diesel generated in America comes from imported oil.
Roughly 40% of the crude oil processed in American refineries is imported, meaning that approximately 40% of U.S.-refined diesel is generated from imported oil shipments. [1]
Come January American refiners will have to pay the world oil price to obtain 40% of the oil they use to produce diesel fuel in a market where the oil supply is insufficient to meet the world’s demand. Time is running out for American dithering and withering. The Persian Gulf oil crisis must be resolved as quickly as possible.
Martin Armstrong provides a counterpoint to Sundance’s expectation for a decline of diesel prices in January. I’ll let google AI summarize Martin’s prognostication.
martin armstrong’s current thoughts on the on diesel supply and prices
Martin Armstrong’s current outlook warns of a severe, structural global diesel crisis that could spark an explosive energy panic cycle in 2027 and depress the global economy through 2028. Rather than tracking a temporary price spike, his proprietary computer models indicate that the world is facing a deep “cost-push” inflationary shock that traditional central bank policies are completely powerless to stop.[1, 2, 3]
Armstrong’s core perspective on the diesel supply and price landscape breaks down into several key themes:
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f6a8.svg The “Real Economic Break” (2027–2028)
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f310.svg A Multilateral Supply Squeeze
According to an analysis on Armstrong Economics, the diesel shortage is systemic and stems from a convergence of global geopolitical pressures rather than a single isolated event: [1]
https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f69c.svg Systemic Traps & Central Bank Failure
World oil market is low, but USA isn’t. oil companies keeping USA prices up till after mid terms, they are not our friends!
The United States exports roughly 5.2 to 5.8 million barrels of crude oil and about 900,000 barrels of motor gasoline per day
Daily U.S. Energy ExportsCrude Oil: ~5.2–5.8 million barrels per day (surging due to global supply disruptions).Motor Gasoline: ~900,000 barrels per day (about 10% of domestic production).Total Petroleum Products: ~10.7 million barrels per day (including diesel, jet fuel, and other liquids).https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f4a1.svg Why Exports Matter LocallyGlobal Pricing: Even though the U.S. produces significant crude, prices at local gas stations in Texas and nationwide follow international markets.Supply Balances: High overseas demand pulls domestic supply abroad, which can keep local fuel prices elevated despite high domestic production.
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Funny how the dem bots come in at the end of threads.
Still getting paid per post?
So, let’s say the pollsters are right and the globalists get a Democrat majority in the house- and this would have nothing to do with the fuel prices and everything to do with a stubborn ineptitude of the republicans to maintain an unwillingness to do what their voters want. Now what? Anyhow, I’d take the low inflation and low fuel prices. The Repubs are worthless anyway and if we maintain even a thin senate majority the house will have its shampeachments and nothing much else. They will maybe lose again in 2028. The whole political class is becoming irrelevant
Still don’t see why Trump can’t just explain this to the public.
He just did about a week ago. He said it was Ukraine bombing Russian refineries making diesel so expensive. Just like China was responsible for the 2020 Steal. No idea who writes his stuff…..
This all sounds like a bunch of double-speak gobbledy-gook. If fuel prices can be reduced immediately after the mid-terms, why can’t the powers-that-be who can lower fuel prices in 60 days just go ahead and do it now. It sure would help the Republican candidates in the election wouldn’t it?