Take heart, we only need to wait approximately 60-days until we see a major price decline in diesel and gasoline prices in the USA. Once the midterm election is over, prices will begin their retreat with the finished collapse mid-January.
The non-pretending reality exists within a generally non-western perspective that current “market prices” are not driven by oil supplies, refining capacity or the other various justifications used by the speculators, traders and various regional spot-market control systems. The prices are being controlled in order to influence political outcomes.
Once those political influence operations are concluded, the stakeholders in the market price approach will moderate their justifications accordingly, and prices will plummet. Sound nuts? Well, let me explain who agrees.
On my side of the argument is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, who does happen to operate the world’s largest gasoline station – at least, according to the professional republicans. Others on my side include Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon, Qatari Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Venezuelan interim President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez.
Others who accept the reality of this position, albeit with various political limits to their ability to speak openly about such matters, include President Donald J Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Unfortunately for this aligned group they are stuck inside the largest western political system who controls global finance and world economic outcomes.
What all of these aforementioned names understand is that “market prices” are entirely detached from the archaic terminology behind supply and demand; a quaint concept that stopped applying years ago – but pretenses must be maintained or else the masses may find their pitchforks, see: DSA pitchfork suppliers.
A second subset of allies who unintentionally support this perspective, includes those who use the terms “sold at a discount” where “sold at a discount” in reality means sold outside the western market pricing approach.
How many times have you seen the term “sold at a discount” repeated when you are reading about former Venezuela oil being sold to China, or current Russian oil being sold to India?
It’s such a common term it is accepted without anyone ever asking, ‘what is this discount you speak of, and how is it applied’? No-one seems to ask that part.
We accept this terminology created by “western market pricing” advocates just as we accepted the term “service driven economy” in the era before Donald Trump.
The reality is that ‘western market prices’ are not an outcome of supply, demand or even availability or production capacity. Western market prices are determined by speculators, traders and regional benchmarks created by “independent agencies.”
Remember those pesky housing loan bond rating agencies, Standard and Poor’s and/or Moody’s during the lead-in to the 2008 financial crisis. That type of rating ‘independence’ is akin to the benchmarks of these regional independent agencies within the energy markets; which is to say, they are not independent at all – they are part of the manipulated western financial system that determines ‘market pricing’.
Behind that curtain are the traders, speculators, ideological banks and financial systems who create the finance system for the energy market. Want to stop oil exploitation, change the lending requirements to favor windmills and solar panels etc. Not coincidentally changing these lending rules and regulations was Mark Carney’s former job. Does that sound like an open market approach?
Thus, when you really understand how this pricing is structured you begin to realize the price of diesel has nothing to do with the supply of it and the price is more controlled by those who wish to generate financial -or political- outcomes from it.
You don’t have to take my word for it, review the words of the world’s largest oil/gas producer about this rigged game. {SEE HERE} Wouldn’t Vladimir Putin be the subject matter expert?
“How, in fact, is the price of gas formed on the European exchanges? It is not determined by producers, but by exchange traders.”
In essence, right now “the west”, specifically Americans, are paying fuel costs based on market commodity prices. The most recent examples are oil, LNG and now the headline leading, diesel fuel. However, the actual supply of diesel fuel is not driving the price. The price is being driven by speculation and trading, which is based on arbitrary price formulas created by western multinational corporations and financial markets.
Right now, Russia is overproducing diesel fuel, and shipping it out of the country to allies. Yet diesel prices in the west are determined by commodity traders, and the pricing mechanism is disconnected from the supply. {SEE HERE}
This is why Secretary Bessent essentially said yesterday, he was “evaluating” calls for a U.S. export ban on diesel. Bessent knows it makes no sense to halt U.S. exports of diesel fuel, because (a) the US has no ability to store it, and (b) if we produce more than we can store, that doesn’t lower the USA price.
Our US diesel supply doesn’t lower the US diesel price because the price is set by market traders, by the western financial markets, not by production or supply. There is a disconnect. It’s the same reason why Oranges grown in Florida cost the same as Oranges shipped into Minnesota. Local supply does not determine local price; the rigged commodity market does.
The USA could be swimming in diesel fuel and yet the price at the pump remains $6/gal.
Ironically, or not, Sylvain Charlebois, a Canadian describing the potash issue, exposed the western price manipulation in this article {SEE HERE} when ultimately, he asks, ‘how can Belarus sell potash so cheap’, and ‘Belarus could put pressure on Canadian potash prices’.
If Potash pricing is determined by western market commodity prices, then how can America get a cheaper fertilizer product for their farmers by buying from Belarus? The answer is in the part of the conversation they don’t want us to have.
Belarus can ship the product far cheaper to the USA because Belarus doesn’t need to participate in the “western commodity” pricing structure. Belarus can increase production and sell at a price they determine, exactly like Russia.
Apply this level of potash thinking to oil, gas or diesel fuel, and you realize what BRICS have been arguing about western price manipulation. Suddenly the price is not attached to supply, demand or production capacity, but is really connected to an elite rigged game of market price controls.
The price of USA gasoline and diesel will drop as soon as the event behind the price control is concluded.
That event is the USA midterm election.
So it’s not a free market. It’s highly manipulated and we are at their mercy. So hip hip hurrah prices will come down at their will in 60 days. So we can expect our grocery and other goods prices to follow. Thank you so much!
Grocery prices are manipulated also. Other than fresh food I can almost guarantee no other food items will go down. That’s more in the gouging line though. Meat has its own mafia pricing when only a few foreign owned processes plants control prices, not the many farmers producing the meat in the USA. Time to break free of the manipulation for greedy globalists!
I’m not normally one to go against SD’s views on things, but as a significant % of my portfolio is oil and gas, all streams, I see things differently. Worldwide demand for oil and specifically diesel has been artificially manipulated by China’s recent oil purchases restarting, and Brazil’s export tax on diesel, respectively. I will also concede the fake news about Russian production destruction is a perfect example of a price control SD is referring to.
We get Canadian sour crude(WCS) at a discount to WTI market prices due to higher transportation costs, sulpher content, and a more expensive refining process. The recent VZ deal, gives us that oil “at cost”, which you could also call a discount.
$100 oil is not driving today’s pump prices. Avg $65 crack spreads are. A crack of 3-2-1 means 3 barrels get refined into 2 of gasoline and 1 of fuels like diesel and jet fuel. The long term average for USA crack spreads in $25. And remember those are averages – it was $19-20 in December. Some refine with a crack of 2-1-1, like CVR energy. Their crack spreads should be significantly higher.
The EU and USA get oil at or below market rates (plus transportation costs). But not everyone does. Was is SD who wrote the article about SRI Lanka paying nearly $300/barrel? I digress.
The diesel prices you speak of are futures prices. Small companies hedge nearly all their supply in the futures markets to avoid large and fast price drops. They need those traders and exchanges or they’d never last more than one cycle.
My prediction is that on the Russia angle, SD is correct. Prices are inflated because of lies. But they’re also inflated due to shrinking refinery capacity in California and the ME (war); increased demand (China); and export controls (Brazil); and Russian sanctions.
Before the election, Q3 results will have been announced. EU/UK/Canada will be in full recession = demand destruction. Export controls may disappear. Iran and Ukraine wars may end. There are too many other variables to claim that the boogy man manipulating markets is the main cause of USA diesel price appreciation.
I’ve been on the Treehouse branch for over 8 years…CTH has been “wrong” One Time Only – saying Brett Kavanaugh wouldn’t be confirmed until a new Congress came in. That’s it…one time in Eight Years. 99.9% correct is plenty good enough for me to believe what Sundance says is True. Gas prices Will come down dramatically after the S/election!
“Diesel and Gasoline Prices Set to Collapse in Roughly 60-Days” is “pie in the sky” thinking…
Gasoline, Diesel prices have never “collapsed” since oil was discovered at SpindleTop…
Yes, the major oil companies may reduce the price per gallon by a few cents, but they will NEVER again be as low as before the recent Iran war…
Wrong.
Gas spiked to over $4 amid financial meltdown era (2007-08). They collapsed to under $2 within months.
During Obama era regulations, gas retail was regularly in the $3-4 range.
During Trump 4 year term of deregulation, they averaged around $2.25 range.
In 2022, amid Biden’s regulation era and Russia Ukraine war, gas spiked to around $5.00 but fell back to little over $3 by 2024 election.
It’s all manipulated by political speculators.
Okay 😂 😂 Kev gave some examples. There are plenty of others.
Look up the futures price on April 20, 2020 crude oil (CL/K20) was trading at -$37.63 at 1:33 pm cst. I have a picture but can’t attach it. Yes, the price was NEGATIVE.
I think that’s because all the tankers were full and parked somewhere because of some hiccup in distribution and one or more countries in the Opec cartel ignored their limits.
Not true, I was buying gas at 2.50 a gallon under Obama, then it started moving to 3.50 a gallon. Trump brought it back to 2.50 a gallon. Now, it’s been spiking since Jan/Feb because of Hormuz. It is cyclic. In 1979, it was rationed. Odd tags could buy one day, even tags the next and nobody could buy both days.
Except in California.
So after the mid terms?
So the dems can take credit?
I have planned my exit for next fall. Not this fall.
But, hell.
Me too, Truli…
I’m gonna hold my nose and vote for republicans in the upcoming mid-term elections in attempt to help President Trump, but after this upcoming mid term “election” I will never again vote for a candidate calling themselves “republican”…
The REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DEAD…
Let’s have a funeral and move on to a party that actually represents the wishes of we, the people instead of supporting a Party that continues to stab us and the President in the back at every opportunity.
The businesses involved are still much more afraid of the Deep State, and their show business branch, the Democrat Party and the media, than they are of Three branches of official government held narrowly by Republicans. The smart money has always been on the Deep State outlasting Trump and the desire for reform.
Prove them wrong or slouch into the dustbin of history with the European failures. Trump is confident. So am I, but we need to make sure to flex with everything we have this November. It is as vital as when our ancestors starved in the bloody snow at Valley Forge and stayed there until spring saw tem march out a stronger and better army than they had been when the limped into that place. During the winter, a Prussian officer named Von Stueben had taught them how to load their muskets faster and move quickly in formation to put force suddenly where force suddenly needed to be, and a volunteer of the Pennsylvania militia, Pvt Thomas Paine, serving unknow in the camp, was recognized and called out by General Washington and made to read from his newest pamphlet, one entitled, ‘The American Crisis’, to the assembled Army,
Our enemies today would take far more freedoms from us than the British would ever have thought to do. Defeat them.
‘Our enemies today would take far more freedoms from us than the British would ever have thought to do.’
But who are those enemies?
The overall pattern appears to show that there is something deeper still than “the Deep State”, controlling (or nudging) all of the other elements and entities in bold:
‘The businesses involved are still much more afraid of the Deep State, and their show business branch, the Democrat Party and the media, than they are of Three branches of official government held narrowly by Republicans. The smart money has always been on the Deep State outlasting Trump and the desire for reform.‘
As part of a global pattern which appears to show veiled collusion between the main powers, steering the long-term tectonic shift of the West declining as the East strengthens.
Which raises the question: Who would be behind the veil pulling the strings?
The answer: Cui Bono.
‘Defeat them.‘
This isn’t December 1776.
If the patriots then were in today’s panopticon woven of smartphones and everything else comprising networked society, with complete controls capable of isolating and shutting them down remotely, they would have been stopped cold before the first shot was fired.
Remember the Canadian Truckers protests of shot mandates? Shut down by locking them out of their bank accounts.
Remember this?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pakistan-covid-vaccine-punjab-threat-cell-phone-cut-off-no-vaccination/
The plandemic shot mandates revealed that we are all fully surveilled and controlled. Most are living hand-to-mouth paying their debt, few can survive more than a couple months without a paycheck, and even less if they are cut off from their bank account, phone, and everything else.
And we don’t even know who to “defeat”. The system distributes agency executing the overall Plan while sidestepping accountability – EVERYONE is executing the Plan, yet the Controllers are veiled.
But thanks anyway for the stirring quote from Thomas Paine. It serves its purpose: Keeping would-be troublemakers focused on the idealized history of American independence while the panopticon becomes ever more complete in the former Republic becoming a part of the NWO panopticon.
Invest in ammunition…
When the government starts shutting down our bank accounts, (and they will, as evidenced by recent banking rule changes) ammunition will be worth it’s weight in gold…
Winter is coming fast. The UK just had sign-ups for the few very low income elderly who qualify for limited financial aid to pay for winter fuel.
The UK had hundreds freeze to death in their homes last winter. But their elites pay for great accomodations and give good benefits to illegal invaders who have been freely assaulting the native populace. The native-born can go to jail for complaining.
The UK is running short on fuel. So is the EU. Canada is about to face shortages of many things. None of these countries have the per-capita income of the lowest US states. They lose the ability to supply Ukraine when they can’t supply themselves.
Trump knows how to run a business, and he knows how to treat an adversary. Iran and Ukraine would be solved years ago if the EU nations’ leadership feared their subjects and respected the US. I wager Trump can, with Bessent’s assistance, come up with a workaround in the next few days. He seems to have planned out timing for many other items on his agenda.
Black Marketeers wear suits and ‘fix’ the market.
to Gerard Michael Burns Jr.
Yes! Prove the Demoncrats and their ilk Wrong! President Trump is Right! Pray and Vote!
Excellent quote from Thomas Paine!
Concise, to the point, and easy enough for us average Joe’s to understand! This is exactly the article I’ll show fellow co-workers when I’m trying to explain how gas prices can be so high, yet we have Venezuelan oil now…and how soon, prices will plummet. Thanks again, Sundance, this is the article I’ve been waiting on!
Sounds like a good time to shut down that gambling… people are hurting because e of this bs.
If the globalists can manipulate gas and diesel prices for political ends, why can’t we. We could shut down the Ukraine war by embargoing energy exports to Europe, especially in conjunction with Russia. We could enforce it by seizing tankers. Remember when we were grabbing tankers from Venezuela. We could also blockade the St. Lawrence if Canada ever figures out a way to get Alberta oil to the East Coast. (There are some roundabout ways to do this but some of that goes through the US.) We could sanction all the future traders, banks and speculators involved. Something similar to what we did to Russia. Wouldn’t stop them but it would disrupt and move more energy trade outside the current pricing system.
Amazing. And here I thought the price could drop if the US brings its unused refineries on line.
Thank you Sundance for explaining what is really going on.
When I saw an MSM poll asking about POTUS Trump’s approval in condom with diesel fuel prices i knew the prices were rigged!
I know many people who are connecting the diesel prices with the war on Iran and the attack on Saudi Arabia and consider it a necessary short term inconvenience because they agree with the Iran problem’s solution.
Their strategy will ultimately backfire when they have to explain the sudden drop in price.
How about getting the pitchforks ready to force these banksters to retire or die.
So the outcome will be the Dems take the House and Senate and impeach Trump?