An interesting article in Japan Times reinforces several insider trade discussions that have been taking place over the past eighteen months.  Essentially, all trade deals with Canada are contingent upon their access to the USA market.  Lose the USMCA trade deal, and any trade terms between Asian and Canadian counterparts are null and void.

This is not the first time this background from key trade nations has been shared with Canada.  Japan told Canada last year that most sector trade, specifically the auto industry, was contingent upon tariff-free access to the U.S. market.  If Canada loses the USMCA, the terms of trade change completely.

This reality is now surfacing in comments directly from the Canadian trade teams and business insiders within Canada.  They are now admitting without the USMCA their leverage for trade with other countries disappears.  This is a considerable admission from within Canada government that has not yet become part of the average Canadian understanding.

If Canada loses their trade agreement with the USA, all other countries will modify their trade agreements with Canada.  Think about the leverage within that reality, overlay the Canadian government’s severe anti-Trump mindset, and you quickly realize just how dangerous Mark Carney is for Canada.

JAPAN TIMES – […] Carney’s push to lessen dependence on the U.S. is colliding with a stubborn reality: access to American markets remains a crucial part of Canada’s appeal to prospective trading partners, according to interviews with a dozen government officials and business leaders.

[…] Canadian officials acknowledge that the main draw for many potential trading partners is the prospect of gaining tariff-free access to the world’s largest market through Canada’s participation in ‌the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade ‌agreement.

Carney regularly touts Canada’s preferential access to the U.S. market, noting that more than 85% of bilateral trade remains tariff-free.

“That (USMCA deal) has been kind ​of a baseline of our investment attraction message,” said a top Canadian government official who requested anonymity to speak frankly.

[…] The auto sector — ⁠dominated by Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda — is a prime example. […] Together the two companies account for over 75% of vehicles made in Canada.

[…] “For many of the Japanese companies investing here, one of the reasons for their investment is definitely the special access Canada has enjoyed ​over the long years,” said ‌Ishii Hideaki, minister and deputy head of mission at the Japanese Embassy in Ottawa.

[…] Goldy Hyder, CEO of the Business Council of Canada, which represents large companies, praised the government’s efforts to attract investment into critical minerals and energy. But he also ⁠sounded a note of caution.

“For large investors from Asia or Europe looking at Canada, any decision to deploy capital would necessarily take into account not only our national investment climate but also our connections to the North American continental economy as a whole.” (read more)

Last year we noted an insider trade report from Toyota warning that if the U.S. cancelled the USMCA, Toyota would move all production out of Canada. The U.S. market is the majority reason Toyota operates in Canada.

As noted in the Japan Times article, this is the first time the Canadian trade and business community have openly stated their trade strategy is contingent upon selling access to the U.S. market.  If Canada loses that access, everything within the economy of Canada will dramatically change.

There are trillions at stake.

Yesterday, yet again, President Trump affirmed he has no intention of continuing the USMCA and will instead prefer two separate bilateral trade agreements, one with Mexico and one with Canada.

Things are going to get spicy very quickly.

Most Canadians have no idea just how consequential that shift will be.

This is a recap video highlighting the damage Mark Carney has done.

Share