In recent developments President Trump’s ‘project freedom’ operation to open the Strait of Hormuz for captured shipping interests has been paused following Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal of support and their revocation of Saudi air bases for U.S. operations.
The issue behind the Saudi decision is not that complicated if you understand the longer-term background. However, the issue behind the Saudi decision also highlights a key ¹flaw in the Promethean analysis of the relationship (and the reason I caution everyone to sip slowly from this information source).
The cliff notes version is that Saudi Arabia and many of the Gulf States look at the negotiations between President Trump and Iranian interests with skepticism. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) wants a complete and final elimination of the threat Iran represents. They do not believe Iran can be negotiated out of that threat. The GCC view negotiations as an Iranian delay tactic.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon, the main voice in the GCC position, has clear eyes and a long historic view on the threat Iran represents. They accept the people in control of the Iran regime will do and say anything to pause or remove the military confrontation; but they will never stop building the arsenal for war. There is zero, absolutely zero trust in anything the Iranians say on this matter.
As a consequence, Saudi Arabia understands the intent of President Trump’s request to support ‘project freedom’, however Saudi Arabia is not going to accept continued missile attacks from Iran during this ‘humanitarian’ effort to reopen the Strait. [Remember, this is also a Muslim Brotherhood issue. The Brotherhood is the political network behind extremist Islam.]
President Trump is asking Saudi Arabia and the GCC states to view the continued Iranian attacks as small slights, small provocations, while he diplomatically tries to negotiate with the Iranian regime. MbS and the GCC are unwilling to take this position, to accept these continued attacks against their nations, simply to give President Trump the political benefit of his policy.
Again, the Saudi’s and GCC have been dealing with this extremist threat for decades. They are unwilling to compromise in order to give space for negotiations they view as futile. The U.S. can use all Saudi support venues to confront Iran militarily, but they are not going to support the political and diplomatic effort behind ‘project freedom’ while they are simultaneously expected to accept continued attacks from Iran.
NBC News reported that Saudi Arabia revoked U.S. access to its bases for Project Freedom, a mission to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian threats. A call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to resolve the dispute, forcing the administration to pause the operation. Political commentators described the move as a significant strategic loss for the U.S. in the Gulf region. (source)
Essentially, the U.S. cannot say to the GCC: “Please open your skies and bases,” thereby exposing their energy infrastructure, only for everyone to discover afterwards the actual American policy was apparently: “Oh by the way, if Iran attacks you with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones in several waves, we won’t retaliate because we are chasing a negotiated deal. And this is exactly what shocked the Saudis.
It was not the issue of the Iranian attack; after all, the UAE/GCC expect retaliation – this is Iran; no one in the Gulf is naïve about that. The shock came from the American reaction after the attacks against the GCC. Attacks against Emirati infrastructure, Fujairah was targeted, multiple waves involving drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles. And from their perspective Washington’s response was basically: “Meh. Minor incident. Let’s not escalate.” Minor incident?! From the perspective of the GCC this is madness. Thus, they withdraw support.
¹This is where it becomes critical to understand the position of the GCC as it relates to well over a decade of this Muslim Brotherhood/Iran extremist activity. It is not President Trump who triggered the GCC assembly to fight this radical Islamic extremism, a bastardized view of authentic Islam, it was Egypt and the GCC who have been confronting this stuff since President Obama triggered the “Arab Spring”.
Long before President Trump took office in 2017, Egyptian President Fattah al-Sisi had confronted the Muslim Brotherhood and assembled a coalition of mid-east partners to address this Islamist threat. Sisi went to see King Salmon (MbS dad) first, to get his support. Egypt then assembled Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan to confront Qatar, who was the bankers for the Muslim Brotherhood.
The GCC with all stable Arab state support then economically and diplomatically boycotted and isolated Qatar. The Qataris finally acquiesced to the pressure and in September 2014 the exiled leaders from the Muslim Brotherhood who were living in Qatar were sent to Turkey.
Egypt and the GCC have been confronting all of the tentacles from the Muslim Brotherhood for more than thirteen years now. All of these factions of radical Islam, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS and more, come from this political apparatus represented by the Brotherhood, which is ideologically and structurally aligned in common cause with the extremism represented by the Iranian regime.
This is the background context for Saudi and GCC support for President Trump to finish the “drive them out of power” approach that Trump himself spoke of in 2017 during the Arab assembly. From the position of the GCC, they have done everything they can to destroy radical Islamic elements, now they need the power of the USA to eliminate what remains of it in Iran.
Saudi Arabia and the GCC view Iran as an existential threat that cannot be dealt with diplomatically and they do not trust any negotiation.
The most positive data points in all the U.S. activity against Iran have been two facets. First, the complete support of the Gulf Arab states for President Trump’s military confrontation of Iran. Second, Qatar joining in strong alignment with the gulf states against both Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Qatar always sat on the fence with one foot supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, and the other foot supporting moderate Gulf Arab states. The difference between Qatar in 2015 and Qatar in 2026 is, quite frankly, remarkable – IF IT IS TRUE (I’m not convinced).
The GCC started their long battle against the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011, and frustratingly, they’re still standing on that same platform 15 years later. That’s why they’re not about to let Iran attack them while President Trump pursues a peace deal they see as worthless.
Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the GCC and even Qatar now holds the position that all political power structures within Iran must be destroyed.
It’s not just Israel urging President Trump to take action against Iran. In fact, history shows that support from Israel is actually less than the backing he’s getting from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC for ongoing military strikes against Iran.
Last point, that reality is also what makes the Tucker Carlson viewpoint look ridiculous and indicates he has some alternative motive behind his position.
Hope that helps.
Know Regime Change is a bad word but imo the only way out. The mullahs have to go. Need to have a secular gov running Iran.
Agree with the Saudis this is only a delay tactic. Current regime just trying to run down the clock.
You took the words right off my keyboard! Great post! 💁🏻♀️
So here is the problem with “Regime Change” in Iran. It’s really simple math.
If you supported this endeavor from the beginning, then it was because you think that the Mullah’s are crazy radicals that would actually use a Nuke if they got one. Iran has ~90 million people. Even if just 10% of the population support the Mullahs (low ball estimate) that’s 9MM crazy radicals that need to be eliminated. And because they are “crazy radicals” they will fight to the last one by definition of being a crazy radical.
So, tell me again how we are going to go door to door to eliminate that many people?
WE aren’t. the 90% that do NOT support the mullahs, whom the mullahs have been murdering and torturing, are the ones who will go door to door. They actually know who the crazies are.
So Iranian Civil War? Ours lasted 4 years. And this would turn into another proxy war even if WE aren’t on the ground. Sorry, Trapper, been there, done that too many times. See Ukraine as just latest example.
You didn’t have a civil war. 1861 – 1865 was a war of secession.
The problem is that brings us to boots on the ground and Iraq style home to home combat ie rooting out the Bathists in Iraq. Plus it’s a long term operation with little to zero help from our so called allies. Unless we let the Israelis do it.
When a country starts a war with us, it MUST end with their complete surrender and regime change. Ask the Japanese. Or the Germans. Or the Italians. Iran has been attacking us and chanting “death to America” for 47 years. Enough. It ends now with the end of the mullah regime.
That’s right. Time to stop blaming the Joos.
smoke and mirrors
they want the US to spend our money to obliterate Iran
while I agree with the concept that Iran should be decimated
as to their power, corrupt government and nuclear weapons
I say put your money where your mouth is
in other words, the middle east should pay for it
How much did they agree to invest just few months ago? Wasn’t in the trillions?
…and maybe do it themselves…we’ll support the efforts…
“…a bastardized version of authentic Islam”???
What is authentic Islam? As defined by whom? As practiced by whom?
It may be that the GCC hates the Iranian Shia violence that is destabilizing to their countries, but that is a political power calculation, not an interpretation of Islam.
Trump’s attempts at alliances with these countries are done in good faith and are consistent with his worldview, but any such alliance is likely to be fickle and brittle and short lived.
Prayerful help needed.
They are referring to, for instance, the “12th Imam.”
“All wars are banker’s wars”
Xi is the Mullahs banker. Have been wondering if the stall was due to President Trump wanting to have direct conversations with Xi about ending the Iranian regime when they are together.
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
JUST IN: President Trump is now considering RESTARTING Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, to ensure freedom of navigation, after pausing it this week — WSJ
This comes as both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have “LIFTED RESTRICTIONS” on the US using their bases and airspace
Cont and video…
10 mins ago…WSJ reports, but Reuters can’t verify….
+++
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait lift restrictions on US military access to bases and airspace, WSJ says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-kuwait-lift-restrictions-us-military-access-bases-airspace-wsj-says-2026-05-07/
Trump: You have an unpleasant military job to … finish.
There can be no “deal making.” Listen to the people who know. People who have thousands of years of experience.
None of this is what you nor anyone would want. You have started to end this 47-year reign of terror, however, and you must finish.
Yes, for example: You’re going to have to bomb the oil delivery infrastructure and docks on Kharg Island into oblivion. (I said: “oblivion.”)
Inescapably, this means Iran won’t be able to export oil, even after the Mullahs are gone. This cannot be helped.
It NEVER made sense to pause it. At all.
Sundance, thank you for your always awesome analysis of the situation at hand. It is much appreciated.
The problem is this makes the current situation more confusing. For those of us who don’t play 4d chess it is difficult to digest.
We want the SOH opened and Iran to give up current nuke material and future nuke ambitions.
It makes more sense if you look at it like tic tac toe. At the outset, Trump said this would take no more than 4-6 weeks. That has proven false. Trump was unable to anticipate our regional allies response to missile attacks as a result of Project Freedom. Why didn’t Trump know Saudi Arabia would react the way they did? Why did Trump spend the day telling everyone he paused Project Freedom because Iran was close to signing a deal, when the reality is our regional allies forced him to pause. There is no 4d chess or grand strategy.
Never thought I would agree with the Saudi’s but this time I do. Iran is playing Trump.
I agree with all of them, we need to finish the job
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the US military’s use of their bases and airspace imposed after the start of the American operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: WSJ
I see it a whole lot differently.
One could make the same commentary about Israel – in terms of dealing with the long-term threat. But Israelis fight and die. Gulf states are feckless and effete. As allies they are worse than Europe – which at least has the excuse of being poor. These monarchies know nothing but inherited wealth that they will do anything to preserve. I was hopeful that this would not become so apparent for Trump’s sake.
It is their neighborhood WHY does somebody else need to clean it up?
Trump Mulls Restart Of ‘Project Freedom’ As Gulf States Lift Military Curbs, Iran Reiterates Nuclear Enrichment Red Line
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the U.S. military’s use of their bases and airspace…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/first-chinese-tanker-attacked-near-hormuz-beijing-urges-waterway-reopened
Why doesn’t Saudi Arabia retaliate if it’s such a problem for them? Why do we have to do it for them? They are exponentially wealthier than Iran and we’ve been selling them weapons for decades. The gulf states clearly don’t support this confrontation or else they would join. I’m supposed to believe they secretly support it, while simultaneously withdrawing support of escorting ships through the straight.
And just like that, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lift the restrictions. Operation Freedom is back on. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2052444524295659886?s=20
Maybe Trump told them, hey, if you want to remove the Mullah regime, you’ll have to send YOUR troops in.
Bases are an easy way to prove you’re an ally. Sending your troops into a groundwar is a whole nuther animal
I’m a strong Trump supporter. In part because he usually gets things right and has common sense. However, in this case, the GCC and MbS are right.
You have to be a special kind of stupid to believe that Iran is somehow going to keep their word. All one has to do is look at their track record to realize that they will say anything to get out of a bind but have no intention to keep their promise. I understand that Trump is trying to save the mid-terms but negotiating with the Mullahs is about as effective as putting a screen door on a submarine. We started this job…. and now we need to finish it regardless of political costs. Its the right thing to do.
So, the beast is wounded. The gulf states have no standing militaries. Join in on the cause, offensively.
Why not?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/05/deep-state-leaks-cia-iran-war-dossier-wapo/
Worms and snakes still doing what they do.
Gulf States Lift Restrictions That Blocked ‘Project Freedom’ in Strait of Hormuz (WSJ)
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-kuwait-lift-restrictions-on-u-s-military-access-to-bases-airspace-8504c830?st=MiP7i6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
AND ISRAEL BTW!
After Oct 7, they will accept NOTHING besides total eradication of Iran, Hamas, Houthi, hezballa threats.
That’s been my issue from the beginning with this Promethium group.
(Not understanding how Israel understands this as a fight for survival)
Trump: “I’m trying to pull OUT, after giving the other guy a trashing, and beat down, … I don’t want to continue to keep hitting a guy on the ground, and keep pounding him”
The fighter getting the beat down: You are beating me pretty good, I raise my hands to pause, and collect myself, …
Trump says: Do you unconditionally surrender?
Figher getting the beat down: I am hurting bad, … I got a few super fast tiny boats, and only a couple of missles, let me save some “face” by tapping on the other countries … just to keep my dignity.
Saudi’s say: Hell no, the guy knocked down is sending missles, and drones to us, and you say “put up with that”. screw that.
‘It is not President Trump who triggered the GCC assembly to fight this radical Islamic extremism, a bastardized view of authentic Islam, it was Egypt and the GCC who have been confronting this stuff since President Obama triggered the “Arab Spring”.’
Sundance, you been smoking the crazy weed? “Authentic Islam” is very radical and violent. In fact, the more authentic it is, the more radical violence it expresses.
Tey have had 20 years to do something they expected President Trump to accomplish in 20 days.
And just like that the Marketing & PR department is trying to act like the CIA is acting like the “Deep State” is the managing partner, at the firm. Worse what the WP is printing has nothing to do with them. LOL
UnFingBelievable
An article like this is useful to mirror the fairly regular and cynical swipes at Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu for allegedly manipulating the United States into its military initiative. Obviously there is a whole region and beyond that is handicapped by Iran’s malign actions and nihilistic exporting of terrorism as a political strategy.
I take issue with Sundance referring to Iran as a “bastardized version of Islam.” It’s not, really. It is Islam, just as Muslim Brotherhood is Islam. It’s just theocratic Islamism that promotes exporting itself to be the dominant ideology near and far. That reflects the political motives of the IRGC, Muslim Brotherhood, and all of the leaders in that group.
The collaborations between Israel and UAE in particular, Israel and other countries and in fact, Israel and the successes of its own Muslims demonstrate that Islam can co-exist with other countries that have different religious beliefs. It’s not whether that version of Islam is “bastardized (which is a globalist (Bush-esque) talking point that keeps the Sadiq Khans and Mamdanis from taking ownership of the stealth insinuation that they advance),” it’s that the Iranian version has proven itself to desire to spread beyond its borders by any means necessary, and exploiting Western weakness for money and (social influencer/academia/lawmaker) bribery (“campaign contributions”), as well as the vehicle of social media for disinformation.
Attempting to cure this problem, rather than continuing to contain it, was a severe miscalculation. While Iran has suffered great damage, the regime still stands. Meanwhile, the side effects are politically toxic in the U. S. Although the polled responders acknowledge that the U. S. has “won” the war, it remains unpopular (about 60% against) because of the blowback of energy price hikes.
IMO Americans aren’t buying the rationale that Iran was about to launch waves of nukes at their country. They see this as a regional mess involving Shia vs. Sunni, Israel’s gradual expansionism, and the Gaza/Palestinian situation … and done using only conventional weaponry.
The war polls aren’t the only ones getting uglier. Today Rasmussen has PDJT at his second-term low for the third consecutive day … 41% approval. Before late last week, the previous low at 43% was touched a few times before rebounding higher. Just last October, POTUS was getting 50% and above for awhile. I trust Rasmussen because it polls every week day and uses the same honest uncomplicated, and unskewed questions about approval/disapproval. Unlike the fake media polls that cherry pick results and gaslight with loaded questions. Bottom line, the midterms are looking as shaky as can be, just because of hubris of attempting to be a successful world cop in a region that is a ghetto. ICE would have more success in Seattle or Portland by comparison.