Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, CTH did not expect the BEA to admit the U.S. economy was in recession. CTH originally predicted the BEA would use lower import data as the primary tool to modify the GDP result.
Factually, in this report, import data -in combination with lower consumer spending- was the primary sector that led to the result. However, even with drops in the valuation of imports which lift GDP calculations, the economy still contracted.
Things must be much worse than officially admitted (details below), if the BEA is going to admit things are bad.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the economy, minus the dollar value of goods and services we import. The percentages discussed are percentages of change over time.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of the second quarter GDP [Data Here] reflecting a 0.9% drop in U.S. economic activity. The second quarter contraction follows a 1.6% drop in the first quarter, which means we now have two consecutive quarters of declining economic activity, the technical definition of a recession.
The two primary data points which show the economic contraction are: (1) Lowered consumer spending; and (2) much lower imports as a result of lower consumer spending on durable goods and non-essential items. High Q1 inventories of goods were also flushed out by companies and not replaced. Starting with the consumer spending, here’s the data [Table-2, BEA report]:
Consumer spending, also called “personal consumption expenditures” declined 1.08% for goods overall in the second quarter.
Consumer spending represents two-thirds of all GDP in the United States. Americans buy lots of stuff, and when Americans stop spending on goods the economy stalls. As you can see in Table-2, consumer spending on goods dropped 1.08% and spending on services increased 1.78%. The net difference is 0.70%, a massive drop in consumer spending compared to prior quarters/years.
The next component with major impact is the result of the drop in spending.
As you can see in the imports/exports section the net dynamic is positive 1.43%. That is very unusual. Imports are a deduction to GDP because the imports reflect the value of goods that are not made inside the U.S. economy. Exports are a positive to the GDP because the exports reflect the value of goods and services we make in the U.S. that are shipped overseas.
In the second quarter, according to the BEA data, the percentage change in the value of our exports (+1.92%) was higher than the percentage change in the value of our imports (-0.49%). The net result is a positive percentage of change of 1.43%.
The second quarter net import percentage of change at +1.43%, means in this quarter we were exporting at a higher rate than we were importing. We were selling more food and energy products to other nations at a higher rate (+1.19) than normal, AND we were importing durable goods at a much lower rate than normal. The positive net result is an unusual dynamic.
If you put lower consumer spending together with the lowered import of goods, you can easily see how they are cause and effect. When Americans buy less, overseas manufacturers send less stuff. There is a lag of around 90 days (+/-) in this process from when consumers stop buying, to when manufacturers stop shipping. Inside the lag is when inventories build up in U.S. wholesale and retail warehouses. With that lag in mind, does the high inventory in Q4 2021 make more sense?
Q4 of 2021 was unusually high GDP of +6.9% because imported durable goods inventories from Q3 (June, July August 2021) were filling warehouses in preparation for Christmas sales that never came. Despite the claims to the contrary (which CTH has shown in the declining port container data), we exited the 2021 holiday season with lots of extra finished durable goods that Americans were not purchasing (financial inflation squeeze).
This multi-quarter dynamic (the lag in the trans-pacific shipping and purchasing) led to a Q1 2022 GDP result of -1.6%. The sale of durable goods dropped 0.07%, and the imported replacement goods were still coming (-2.69), which led to a significant reduction in the GDP (-3.23). Simply put, low U.S. sales and high imports arriving, equals negative GDP.
We exit the first quarter with this dynamic rolling forward. Inflation on essential items (food, fuel, energy) continues crushing U.S. consumers, as a result spending on non-essential items continues dropping. Warehouses are full of unsold goods, and replacement orders are cancelled. The arrival of new goods slows, imports drop, and combined with the continued drop in sales, we have a second negative quarter.
That’s the big picture as it relates to the largest two factors, retail sales and imported goods.
The big picture shows the demand side of the justification for inflation is false. However, the central banks and politicians cannot admit the demand side inflation doesn’t exist because they are continuing to raise interest rates to support the Green New Deal energy policy.
The Federal Reserve cannot admit that economic demand has dropped; it is against their legislative mandate to raise interest rates into a recessionary economy. Therefore they must pretend demand is still a part of the inflation dynamic. As you can see from all of the data, that claim is demonstrably false.
The Biden administration and all of the monetary and regulatory policy makers must pretend that consumer demand is strong in order to provide cover for monetary policy that is against the legislative mandate of the Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept.
‘Pretending’ is how they can justify the raising of interest rates into a recession.
This is why the administration must deny a recession exists. Please understand this.
The politicians are protecting the bankers.
By claiming there is not a recession, the Federal Reserve can continue taking action that lowers economic activity. The lowering of economic activity drops the use of energy inside the economy. They are managing the economic transition inside the Build Back Better or Green New Deal agenda. They are managing a purposeful decline in economic activity in order to support the energy transition.
The only way the Federal Reserve and central banks can raise interest rates into a recession, is if they deny a recession exists.
That is why they are denying a recession exists.
LyingPedoJoe46……
will get the BEA to revise……
their inflation number or revise…..
their definition of recession…..
“1984” or “Idiocracy”…..take your pick.
I’ve been saying all along that Biden was selling oil from the reserve to make the Q2 numbers better. Without this massive number, it would have been a total wipeout, which Q3 will surely be. Hang on folks, plenty of pain to come.
He’s doing it to manipulate the price, and plans to keep doing it. He thinks he’s got it all figured out.
Well, our military will run on evs, but I think the Air Force & Navy fighter jets are screwed. I’m assuming much of the naval fleet runs on nuclear .
Air Force will be on flying fairy dust.
Not Q3. The pain will come after the election. We won’t see any big increase in gasoline prices until December.
I think you have it right Sir.
How about another choice: the BEA and the FED (US commercial banks) have broken with the globalist junta and are working together to take them down.
Lovely to think about, anyway.
Tell that to the stock market
Stock market up big today. Wall Street betting the Fed will reverse course sooner than later.
What I noticed mostly, what would be today’s ‘widow and orphans’ stocks are way up. Con Ed of NY is up by about 2.50 per share.
Lockheed Martin, not a widows etc….up 6.69 per share (450+ per share).
Market is overpriced before inflation.
when the layoffs start, no body will be contributing to 401k or IRA’s. Then what, who knows.
Everything goes on, Aggiegirl…until it doesn’t. An immutable rule that not even Wall Street or the Fed can alter.
War stock.
Consider these things
1) Traders are hoping for the results to force the FED Put
2) Global Traders are allocating funds in the US markets (see dollar strength vs. other currencies) as they are the cleanest shirt in the dirty hamper
That’s because it’s much worse than -0.9%.
There is only so much lipstick they can apply.
Oil is used in the production of said lipstick. Pretty soon there will be none of it to apply to any of the pigs that this administration has let loose.
You are so right! We will finally get to see what AOC looks like without make up!!!
Ugh…Bad enough with.
She looks just like the New Zealand mare Jacinda, and like her can eat apples through a wire fence.
Apparently, G, Ardern is in political trouble in NZ. Much as Draghi, Johnson, Macron…plus inklings that Castro Jr may be as well.
I hope we are seeing the fault lines widening.
She is young. But. No makeup covers up sneers [well maybe KISS’s makeup].
Correct. A short clip by Maria Bartiromo on Rumble this AM says it will be revised downwards even more. They don’t want you to have a heart attack on the 1st go round.
They use the same moves as The Kenyan. He was always constantly potting out better numbers than actual and then later they would slip in a revised, much worse, number when no one was looking, with no fanfare. Klain knows the game well. They all do. It is the DIMs stock in trade.
I read earlier that this first quarter GDP was revised from -1.6% to -2.1%.
They guesstimate is when they revise Q2 in three month is will be down double digits.
“Biden” says everything is just great.
And that sound you hear is ever American collectively rolling their eyes so far back into their heads, they’ll never right themselves.
That 74% number that don’t want FJB to run again is going to tank further.
“We were selling more food and energy products to other nations at a higher rate (+1.19) than normal”
Could that energy possibly be from the strategic reserves?
Absolutely. And they’re selling off the grain stores at a time when we’re set for poor harvests worldwide. They need the cash.
Advanced Economics 201 and Common Sense: Two educational dissertations the Deep State does not want disseminated to the masses.
Thank you Sundance for keeping us informed!
Actual Inflation is twice as bad as the Official Number(tm).
This GDP Number must be twice as bad also.
All economists agree these were caused by multiplying Biden’s 40.5 million votes times 2.
It’s SCIENCE! Don’t question it.
Oh. But what if science says it takes a biological male and biological female to procreate?
A: Let me ask Bill Nye the Science Guy. She’ll know!
Samanna: Is gum recession still OK?
It should apply to Lisa Page. Otherwise, be prepared for the Gums of August.
😁🤗🤔👌👍
The media is saying that the minus 0.9% GDP change signals a recession MAY be looming in the future.
This is media redefining “recession” right in front of your face. Just like the vaccine.
Or defining mail/fe-mail.
(spelling sensitive – no hate speech!)
Uh-uh…B-B-B-Biden says.
The swamp rats are rubbing their little grubby rat paws together in joy for the pain they are causing the American people and the world as a whole.
Is raising interest rates in a recession Powell’s idea of a soft landing?
Please sir, may I have more bugs? ( gruel )
We ought to all get together and send boxes of crickets, to Congress…with a few live ones chirping to be annoying….
So did selling strategic oil reserves to other counties help US export numbers? Would that be why they did it?
One supposes so, at least given Sundance’s discussion up above. I see it more as an effort to deplete fossil fuel supplies in the U.S. so the supply side dwindles off & people are forced to put solar panels on their house & buy evs or take Buttegieg’s excellent public transportation system & risk their lives. Our grocery shelves will get stocked with bugs & artificial plant protein food made from Bill Gates’ farms. Too bad if you need milk. That’s also why they have to confiscate all the guns ASAP.
For those who do not know what FUBAR is, it is F***ed Up Beyond All Recognition. It is a term that I frequently heard in the Army.
I was taught “repair” instead of “recognition.” But I am in industrial maintenance so still makes sense.
First time I ever heard that term was in the movie “Tango & Cash” with Sly Stallone and Kurt Russel. Great 80’s flick about two good cops going up against a group of corrupt cops, pols, and drug dealers.
This was back when we used to root for the good guys. Now and Days, Tango & Cash would be villainized for police brutality. Amazing what has happened to this country and world in such a short period of time.
Tango is a former Canadian airline. Today TANGO AND CASH would be a conversation about cargo and a direct flight from Washington to Kiev.
After a while of FUBAR you morph into SNAFU.
Situation Normal: All F**** Up
I do believe we are in SNAFU territory.
SNAFU is usurper Biden’s calling card.
“As you can see in the imports/exports section the net dynamic is positive 1.43%. That is very unusual. Imports are a deduction to GDP because the imports reflect the value of goods that are not made inside the U.S. economy. Exports are a positive to the GDP because the exports reflect the value of goods and services we make in the U.S. that are shipped overseas.” – Sundance
Perhaps the increasing value of the US Dollar internationally ‘relative’ (as measured by the DXY) to other currencies could explain this?
That’s surely part of it.
Total FUBAR!😠😠😠
So, if the politicians are protecting the bankers, what can we do to weaponize this information and dynamic to overcome that protection and destroy them?
I ask because their existence depends on us. We work, we employ, we spend, we save, we pay taxes, we invest, we borrow, we are peaceful, we follow the law. All can be used as weapons. All it takes is choice and the willingness to do what needs to be done to win.
We pledge our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor to uphold and defend these precepts of freedom and liberty. I made my choices back during the Carter administration but am interested in other’s viewpoints and solutions. Sundance is a master at outlining the challenges. Clarity is a wonderful tool.
What will history say of us?
“ The politicians are protecting the bankers.”
And visa versa.
The decision was made to dump Josef Stolen Skeletor. They will only provide minimal cover now.
Oh, and I bet we see a downward revision that shows contraction exceeded the drop from the prior quarter.
We are having sharper contractions. They are working to abort our economy.
Whose buying bonds today? Is the stock market having a good day
Bonds have had a big rally, recession is here and the bond market is betting on the FED resuming bond purchases and cutting rates. The stock markets is anticipating loads of free money from the FED printing press. It’ll work for the traders but it is not a healthy sign.
As New Coke and FDS demonstrated, their are very real limits to what modern marketing can accomplish; Market research can yield innaccurate results, and all the slick, expensive advertising in the World can not motivate repeat sales.
The methods of modern marketing have been eagerly embraced up by Politics, and are now, painfully learning these same lessons.
THEY have an inherently flawed product, and a flawed marketing campaign to try to sell that flawed product.
And, unlike the CEO etc. of Coca-Cola, they will never admit to themselves that the product they are trying to shove down our throats tastes like sh*t, and we will NEVER ‘buy’ it, let alone consume it.
Instead, they keep trying to “tweak” the ad campaign, as if the RIGHT commercial, the right slogan can somehow get these dumb consumers to like, buy and consume the crap they are pushing.
The five stage of a product: development, introduction, growth, maturity and DECLINE!
At warp speed!
It is that season where parents start buying the back to school supplies, clothes, shoes, etc. We will see how bad it is when the retailers start crying foul.
I am thankful I am past all that.
Wally world had the school supplies out on July 5th. But they always do that. But yes. And some states are already advertising their ‘tax’ holiday for school supplies., usually bigger ticket items like calculators and computers.
As long as the goal is to end the use of fossil fuel and transition to basically little to no energy provided only by acceptable green solar and wind energy the recession can’t end can it? If us We The People have no discretionary funds to spend because higher costs for gasoline, diesel, food, mortgage, taxes and energy eats up all or more of monthly disposable income how will the recession come to an end? Will Democrats and the corrupt leftist msm just declare/dictate it’s over before the 2024 election??? Just wondering???
How to end it? Trump 2024
Oh that’s pretty simple. They expect you to forget (with lots of propaganda shoved down your throat) what “before” was like. I expect some grade a propaganda aiming at reshaping perception if they can’t get a war kicked off with Russia to offset the recession (soon to become depression).
Well, add inflation and we are taxed on what we buy. We pay higher taxes due to the higher prices on food and fuel.
We have no discretionary money…but the gov still getting tax $$$
Is win win for big government.
I’m 80 years old. May I have a triple FUBAR with my grocery bill for a snack…
You may have it with a side of SNAFU
These experts are either totally deficient in logic or simply deceiving the public.
I suspect it is the latter but they have to be hypocrites and lie despite knowing their words are not true.
Why are journalists not asking them simple questions and demanding straight and simple answers?
Is it because they are too heavily invested in the lie?
Pothead Dullard and his “magic wand” comment re GDP –
are you happy, Pothead Dullard? Do think this means YOU are now vindicated to see the GDP back down after everything done by the Biden Admin to undo the achievements of Trump?
No, it actually proves the point that you are stupid!
Actually, the Democrats and the Biden Administration are putting on an Economics 101 demonstration as to how you can mess up the national economy just for the hell of it and why we need Donald Trump and MAGA to turn things around again!
By the grace of dear God!
The auto industry standing down. Making way for massive Chinese takeover. Who sold us out?
Pretty much 99% of DC, why do you ask?
Didn’t Pompeo say he had a list?
Just get a loan at a reduced rate from those Savings and Loan people featured in Vogue.
Why is Kevin McCarthy now raising his voice when he should have been pushing both the house and senate Republicans to be loudly raising their voices, in unison, from the day of Biden’s inauguration. If he cannot give the dynamic leadership that inspires zeal among principled politicians, he should resign immediately – and the same applies to McConnell.
The problem they have is they can claim whatever they want try
to paint a rosy picture, tell us what we see, and feel is not what we
see and feel. But that is the problem for them. EVERYONE can
see it and feel in , at the gas pump, at the grocery store,
going out to eat. at any store.. what they are claiming is
not the reality of everyday life..
You’ll be amazed at how many they will be able to brainwash with propaganda saying just the opposite. How bad it WAS, compared to now.
Ronald Reagan once said that when your neighbor loses his job, its a recession and when you lose yours, its a depression.
I think we have hard times coming with this crowd.
Old boy has been in the swamp too long to not know what he is doing to us…and it hits us all, Demo Karens as well.
I think that several of the administration have posed on television today telling why this is really not a recession, as if we can’t feel recession every time we go to the store.
Less imports, less jobs in China. Remind me how the Chinese economy is doing. Raising rates going into a recession in cruel, and China will also get hammered. They are gonna get creamed in the next election. They are gonna cheat. What happens when 60% vote for the wrong guy, and with the cheat 121% vote In total? Watch for tons of irregularities- the machines will be cutting votes. There will be stops and starts, restatements.
China is already getting hammered. Their real estate is failing. There are runs on their banks. Things are bad there. That’s why it’s doubly awful that the elites decided to pick a fight with Russia. China and Russia are making plans to gang up on us via BRICS and we will all be feeling the pain sooner rather than later.
One of my own gauges of economic health is Home Depot because I may go 20 times a week. Lately as in the last two weeks I have seen a decline in the pro section of parking. I imagine in another two weeks the regular parking will thin as well. Over half the spots open means a severe contraction in building activity in general.
Interesting!
My next door neighbor has been trying to get a new heating and AC system installed for more than a year. They just showed up today. My husband put in our hot water heater himself when we moved in here 25 years ago and we figure it’s time to replace the thing before it starts leaking. This time we wanted to pay someone to do it for us because he just didn’t feel like crawling around down there (we’re not as young as we used to be) and we’ve been trying for 8 months to get someone. Yesterday we got word that the guy is coming tomorrow.
“The US economy is officially in Recession.”
Not officially correct.
Question: “What is a recession and who decides?”
Answer: National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee
“That would be a group of eight people known as Officially, however, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee makes the actual call on a recession, which NBER defines as “the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.”
IOW, until they say it is so, it ain’t so
https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/what-is-recession-definition-51658962409
The eight committee members look to me like a bunch of liberals. Ergo, I don’t expect them to come out with anything that will hurt democrats.
Lol. If they are waiting on the “lowest point” we certainly might have a while to wait before they declare it. This is merely the beginning. We are in for a ride.
It doesn’t make any sense for recession to be defined that way in order to recognize when we are in one. The lowest point is the end of the recession. Seems like that is a definition of the period of a recession.
I don’t see the point of the lying. They seem quite willing to be blatant about destroying America. Do they think we believe anything they say?
There are people that once they start playacting find it hard to give it up. They enjoy the attention and imagine themselves to be much more well regarded than they are.
Remember when Chernobyl melted down and the US offered help and the Soviet government turned around and sent us blankets for the homeless in NYC? I think that’s what’s going on here. These clowns can’t admit that anything is bad on their watch.
The denial that we’re in a recession is just the oddest thing. What’s the point of doing that? We are still in an inflationary environment for the things that matter most (i.e. food and energy) so it would be understandable that the Fed would raise rates.
I thought the elites believed we preferred teary eyed Bill Clinton telling us that he feels our pain. How is denying the actual pain Americans are feeling going to win them any friends/votes? All I can think is that we’re turning into the USSR and the party in power doesn’t want any record of anything bad ever occurring under its watch and so Pravda dutifully complies.
they no longer need to win votes, they have machines and mules that cheat them to victory
Whats really eye opening is declining imports during a period of extraordinary dollar strength.
This further validates SD’s discussion on the decline in “UNITS” being purchased vs the “Value/Cost” of the units.
I am waiting another 6 months to make any significant discretionary purchases when everything will be 50% off.
Bucknutguy, “extraordinary dollar strength”. The dollar is worthless, backed by what, the U.S.of A.’s good name? It’s mere monopoly money anymore and it won’t even be that if the “dollar” is not the world currency for oil trading. JMHO!
it’s already happening…watch for it soon.
walmart is announcing it will be having a fire sale to offload the incredibly large inventory.
it won’t work…the economy is in the tank …consumers are not interested in buying old inventory…consumers are interested in hunkering down and counting pennies and tucking them away.
I give it about 4 more months before three major commercial banks and several insurance giants go under…spectacularly
and of course good old joe malarkey and the corrupt radical embeciles in congress will be more than happy to prop them up.
that won’t work either.
you cannot spend your way our of a depression.
and yes, this is a depression.
not a recession.
and it’s global.
reset, ready or not.
just as they planned.
Stay frosty..the pain is coming soon.
God Bless America
What’s the official definition of a “depression“? Let’s get that understood and known before ChiCom Joe, Democrats and the deep state redefine it!!! My guess is a depression is where you own nothing and are miserable!!!
Well as a Treeper upthread quoted President Ronald Reagan, ” A Recession is when your neighbors lose their jobs, It’s a Depression when you lose your job”. A matter of perspective as to whose ox is gored.
RecessionDepressionWhether or not we are in an official recession may not be important. Almost everyone will soon realize we are in a super-sized handbasket on a trip to the economic equivalent of Dante’s Inferno with no brakes or reverse gear. When the panic starts, it won’t matter what we call it and everyone will know what it is and who to blame for it.
Even though it is official by historical standards, the Biden administration is denying that the US is in a recession. But then, they lie about other things, too!
Long time equipment OEM in PA, that is a leader in its segments, reported sales up 33% but income declined 38% due to material costs and supply chain!!! Can’t stay in biz too long doing this.
So, they want renewables. So, they purposely make the demand for “”Fossil”” energy go down to ‘zero’ because its to expensive to buy.
Renewables provide 10/12% for our energy consumption? 86% plus provided by oil natural gas coal (nuclear 8% of that 86%)!
It makes me wonder what do they expect is going to happen. My personnel belief, we are headed back to the early 19th century, with a 21st century population. That is my prediction for these fricken morons.
The next 3 months will tell the tale. Brandon & Co can spin all they want to but as mass layoffs pick up and prices continue to go up there will be no way to convince consumers that the economy is ok. Even CNN viewers will know the truth, but I’m sure they will still find some way to blame Trump.
President Biden’s speech today sounded monotonic, rehearsed and poorly delivered, and the script he read was insulting to anyone who understands economice and finance. He’s terrible. I am beginning to think he didn’t have Covid; after his failed Saudia Arabia trip, they conceales him, drugged him up to prepare for this terrible speech today.
The Administration continues to spin bad economic news. Biden’s statement on today’s negative GDP report avoided any reference to recession, or even to the fact that these GDP numbers were negative.
What transition is this fool talking about? The Americam people are pissed with the direction the country is going in. Does he mean the transition from economic growth to economic decline?
The Stock Market futures Bear rally hit its resistance level of 32,500. With all the bad economic news why is the Stock Market going up? It has to be very aggressive manipulations…. Unless there is something big brewing, we the public don’t know about it yet.
There is only one person put in power who has the experience and competence to right the sinking ship and that is Trump. Could it be Trump is back in the Oval Office sooner than later?
What is going on now in terms of Biden lying, using manipulative, sarcastic language, and pretending the economy and state of affairs are just great is straight out of George Orwell’s 1984.
The similarities between that novel and what is currently going on are astounding. A great quote from that book:
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” -George Orwell, 1984 Book 1, Chapter 7
Joe Biden has done nothing but damage to the economy. Who does he think he is fooling? He started day one of his administration by signaling he was the Anti-Trump and all but destroyed our domestic energy production.
My prediction to Sundance:
We know historically that recessions always lead to layoffs and layoffs are already started. Soon job loss will replace inflation as the number one concern, but only after the midterms.
The Democrats will do everything they can do now to spend causing increased inflation and layoffs that will hit after the midterms. They will use that scenario to try and make Republicans look bad post-election 2022.
Summary: The Dems will hurt the everyday American people by implementing their New Green Deal policies now, to make the Republicans look bad for the next two years, leading into the 2024 General Election.
I read an article to that effect in the past week. They never let a crisis go got waste! And if there isn’t a crisis, they create one!
🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
Lousy, lying weasels!
The word “inflation” appears in this screed four times. Odd that, given the fact that Powell started doing battle with inflation in November of last year. So, I find myself in agreement with Tom Luongo, who sees the Fed in a battle royal with the Davos crowd, and by extension with the DC spendaholic establishment. This explains why so many Democrats are on the warpath, looking for Powell’s scalp. He is following the same play book that the Fed used to snuff out inflation in the early eighties. when this approach also occasioned a recession. Take a look at the congressional results in ’82 to get a glimpse of what Elizabeth Warren and crew fear.
Another point not to be missed here is the decline in imports, which in practical terms means a decline in the import of finished goods from China. Xi is currently trying to convince the Politburo that the Chinese economy will have to tread water for the foreseeable future– a catastrophic turn of events for a ruling class that needs 6-9% growth per annum just to sustain the social costs of its aging population, never mind the modernization of its military. Bank runs, a collapsed real estate market, massive municipal corruption and cooking of the books … our recession is hurting the Chinese where it really hurts.
Is this the new face of warfare?