Mohamed El-Erian is generally more correct than most, but the insufferable coded language he is required to use makes it difficult for the ordinary person to see exactly what he is saying. For this CBS segment, we will apply the decipher. [Transcript Here]
Notice this key phrase in the beginning of his discussion of inflation. “Of course, we know about the Ukraine war, we know about the energy transition, also the Federal Reserve mischaracterize inflation and fell behind.” No, Mohamed, most Americans do not know about the forced energy transition and how that has created this unavoidable inflation spiral. How about dropping the code and saying it directly? Joe Biden initiating the Green New Deal means much higher prices are permanent.
El-Erian speaks about supply side inflation, but doesn’t want to talk about the next phase, demand and service side inflation. The three month inflation data is higher than the year-over-year inflation data. That means inflation is growing. There is no way for inflation to drop when the most recent price increases are significantly higher than the previous price increases. Inflation is now detached from any intervention. WATCH:
Consumer demand for non critical goods are contracting at the same time prices continue rising (that’s stagflation). Demand side contraction, what El Erian calls “demand destruction,” means lost jobs (that’s recession). Food, fuel and energy prices all continue rising. The field costs are higher than current fork costs, and that (30%+) wave of inflation coming in from over the horizon is going to blow the doors off any economic growth. The process is unavoidable now.
The credit markets will feel the impact before the end of the year as consumers will no longer be able to make payments for loans, and still eat. Mortgage defaults will increase, vehicle repossessions will increase, credit card debt and bankruptcies will increase. The credit markets will get drowned in a tsunami of default. That’s the direct language El Erian will not use, but it is present inside the coded-language he does use.
If you did not purchase a house this year, you are ahead financially. Equity and values are plummeting.
I purchased my house in 2016 and paid it off in 2019. I went through a lot of austere living but am now out of debt. Whew!
Been debt free for 10 years.
1995 for us. Other than political freedom, almost nothing is as free as debt free.
“Amen” brother. After marrying my wife, BEST decision I have made was going debt free.
Changes we have made, to live within our means, have invariably resulted in a “quality of life” IMPROVEMENT.
So, contrary to the perceptions of many (and frankly US before we started) eschewing credit, and living within your means, does NOT mean ‘sacrifice’, quite the contrary.
Our lifestyle has steadily improved, since making the move to debt free!
Could you talk to my wife? sigh
Lol. Mine to…Major Sigh.
There is no talking to some. I had to divorce one of those. Best decision I ever made. Now debt free, and money saved.
I am a couple stops behind working on becoming debt-free
I do consider that now and again.
Heck of it is if we lived really tight on my income and applied hers to debt we would be debt free in 18 mos… 18 mos living simply for financial freedom but she cannot see it.
Sigh…..my sincere sympathies… truly. B
(Just looking above, there seem to be a lot of us sighing)
ya I’m amazed at some people. So far this year my friend, who has been married and divided 5 times ,now single, spent $4500 at Disneyland. $7000 to have her backyard landscaped, $1900 to have her garage floor refinished, are these good investments at this time ?! NO. Been camping twice where you pay $70 a night to camp, driving quite a distance to camp at Santa Cruz in her truck that gets 14 mph…smh. This is in California, she isn’t wealthy, she’s still working at 66, still has a mortgage on her house . Even though I’m her best friend I say nothing to her, because she thinks she’s the smartest one in the room..
Addison: Hold on to your wallet, friend!
I can easily visualize it: “married five times” means she’s quite a looker; “divorced five times” means the ‘cost-benefit’ analysis is a loser. “She’s the smartest one in the room” means: she’s happiest when she’s on her own, and so is everyone else.
That’s the funniest post I’ve read in a long time. Thank for the laugh.
Will you take her in and feed her when the floor falls away and she has nothing but debt?
That is a question we all should ask ourselves and decide now, while we are not in a crisis situation.
I suppose her plan is to stay ahead of the debt until she dies?
AAAAAAAAAAAAMEN!!!
Sadly there’s still property taxes and insurance
Yes, and the housing bubble increased the cost of both.
My insurance went up 25% due to the replacement cost.
The house’s assessed value went up 28% in 2022. The previous assessment had an increase of 25%. This is the first year as a Georgia resident and I applied and received a Homestead Exemption, which freezes the assessed value to the last assessment until I sell it. The exemption doesn’t keep them from raising the millage rate, but it certainly helps.
Not all debt is bad. People who leveraged sub 3% equity and used it wisely say to purchase a home are actually in pretty good shape. Blackrock continues to artificially inflate home values and the commies make it almost impossible to build new homes. Of course all real estate markets are local but in general I respectfully disagree with the last part. Time will tell. If you’re fairly young you can ride out a downturn anyway.
Bought my house in ’15. Current actual yield paid is just less then 2.75% (2.5% APR). I’m in flyover country on acreage with natural water sources and food sources. Homestead tax exemption to limit any possible increases in property taxes. Lastly, even at almost 6% people are buying completely empty 10 acre lots (no trees, well, creek/ponds, house, etc) around me for what I got all my land and housing for (2 ponds w/ one almost 3 acres, 2 seasonal creeks, fruiting vines and trees, 60×40 barn, 12×16 loafing shed). I’ll gladly let the bank pay me to live here. Now, other then our house/land we are debt free. Even if property values halve from here I would still be able to sell for a profit over purchase price. Truthfully, though, they may go lower then that, but I’m not worried about it. We bought a home, not a house.
Anyways, I agree not all debt is bad if good choices are made. Like not spending more then the equivalent of 100% of your annual income on the purchase price of a home. Today, I believe a majority are about 4x their annual income…meaning the household income is $100k/year and they’re spending $400k on a home.
“IF GOOD CHOICES ARE MADE”….
Builders on Fl must not have gotten that message they are still new starts around here everyday.
Southern Oregon as well….Judging by Construction traffic, (Contractor Rigs and Lumber and Mud Trucks) Hard to tell if anything is slowing…
For sure. A contractor friend says he has a two year waiting list for farms
If you are caught owing on a secured loan or mortgage when this economy crashes, you will lose it all. Pretty good shape, my a$$.
Why? won’t the amount of the loan to pay lost their value?
My investments pay only 6% but my mortgage is 2.7% so I’m letting passive income do the work for me–and allowing inflation monetize the debt in the process. In ten years I’ll pay my house off with a single paycheck of funny money! 😁
If you are paying your 2.75% mortgage (Or 2.5 like me on primary, this is like free money considering our first home was 10% and that was considered a good deal at the time) with inflated dollars you are ahead of the game. I consider owning RE as a hedge against inflation. It will never be worth zero, especially if someone else is paying it off and you’re collecting income. Our accountant taught us that it is sometimes better to leverage investment property a little for tax reasons. He even said that it will sound bass akwards but work to our benefit.
I bought two new vehicles in the last 6 months. The trade in value they offered for my truck with 85,000 miles was $7K less than I paid for it originally in 2018. I didn’t have to, but I just couldn’t turn down the 0% terms on a 36 month loan for the small amount borrowed for the new smaller truck and a 2.9% for a 60 month on the car. I don’t mind paying them of in devalued dollars.
Great job Emil! We paid ours off by the end of Jimmy’s misadministration.
No debt here either. We are very frugal! The only money we have to find each year is property tax, and I will wager they are going to hike that. They don’t like you owning property
When we moved back from the UK, the bank we selected told us how great it would be if we took out a mortgage because we could deduct the interest from our taxes. We were 56 at the time.
We said we’d pay cash. Credit cards paid of monthly. They hated that.
No debt. If we can’t afford it we don’t buy it.
“My riches consist not to the extent of my possessions, but in the fewness of my wants.”
~~Joseph Brotherton, 19th century English pastor and Member of Parliament~~
You lost value because your money that you used to buy the house could have been growing at 20-30% under Trump and 10% under Obama.
But the peace of mind gained from having no debt is priceless!
Boom!! Correct. A precious commodity on which no price can be put. The market is a casino that fines is badly twice.
Edit: failed us badly twice…autocorrect…ugh.
Yes, autocorrect…
I’m getting tired of that shirt 🙂
No kidding WM. I’ve sent it to the corner more times than I can tell you. Presumptuous and ignorant. The number of perfectly good words I’ve typed it doesn’t recognize…
Here ya go…
Doctor: I’m afraid you’re suffering from Autocorrect Syndrome.
Patient: I didn’t even know I was I’ll.
(yes, posted before but so worth a repeat.)
Oh and WM…good one!
Absolutely! I was advised not to pay off my home but I did. It really lowers the level of anxiety.
True…there are some who simply don’t understand how much money they are paying in the end with a mortgage. A pencil and paper and a good figures person could show them in about 5-10 minutes..
Anybody who advised to not pay off your home was giving you unconscionably bad advice.
As an older woman once told me, you would be surprised how little you can live on when you don’t have debt.
Hindsight is 20/20, and not a tool available when decisions must be made.
We don’t make decisions on speculation. When we bought, Trump was nowhere near coming into the picture. We’ve lived with debt before as a matter of necessity. It is not a nice place to be. Not nice at all.
I heard some money guy once ask someone if their home was paid for would they then refi it, take the equity out, and use that money in the stock market. Of course they wouldn’t. A completely paid for home means peace of mind. Even if it is worth ZERO you still have a roof over your head. If it is worth ZERO you can still rent it out for income. Playing in the stock market still carries RISK OF LOSS. Just look at what FJB has done.
Dave Ramsey said that. He influenced us hugely. We are debt free with good investments. His Total Money Makeover changed our lives.
Maybe my wife would listen to another woman… see comment up thread.
Checking now, Mycroft.
Here’s the thing…none of us has a crystal ball. When bad things happen, I’ve found they happen in a relative split second. We’d been in a terrible place before and not because of anything we’d done or hadn’t.
One valuable lesson was the recognition that the good times that may be rolling won’t last forever. As best as we could we started looking around corners for times we knew would eventually come. If we all are making sure our pantries are full, why aren’t we applying that same preparedness to the state of our monetary/financial resources?
“When you hear hoofs, think horse, not zebra.”
Right now I can hear the thunder very clearly. Why cannot she?
I think you need to sit down with her, pencil and paper and show her what your mortgage is costing in total by the time you pay it off, Mycroft. She might possibly not understand you’re not paying off $xxx,xxx…but are paying off that amount plus interest. It’s a thing to see the total amount on paper.
We jus did an exercise of $240,000 mortgage fixed at 6% over 30 years. The final amount paid if taken over the whole 30 years was, of course, eye popping of huge.
Try that and see what reaction you get. And truly, my friend, the best of luck. I can feel your distress. Bet
Who’s the head of the household?
Second marriage for both of us so we manage money our ours, yours, mine.
She is a breakaway Mennonite and no man will ever again tell her what to do.
So I do the best I can or I divorce her.
Jury is still out on that question.
🙏
I suggest watching The Minimalists documentary Less is Now on Netflix. That and read Dave Ramsey’s Total Money Makeover.
““My riches consist not to the extent of my possessions, but in the fewness of my wants.”
~~Joseph Brotherton, 19th century English pastor and Member of Parliament~~”
Thanks for posting that, I saved it to the phone.
Not just an excellent quote, an excellent attitude.
It is Greg, and I’m so glad you found it saveable. It really is a state of mind, or as you say, attitude.
Congratulations!
We, too, are totally debt free. It’s a great feeling.
Good for you! Congratulations! My wife and I have paid things off as well. Hard times are coming.
A real estate mortgage wherein there is any positive equity is not considered debt by the credit industry. I learned that awhile back.
Thus, if you owe only a balance on your mortgage, with no other outstanding debt, you are “debt free.”
Actually loading up on debt now buying valuable assets and paying it off later with worthless dollars is not only a good idea it’s exactly what Biden and the Federal Reserve are planning to do with $70 trillion in national debt!
Absolutely correct, but, the timing can kill you.
This.
We bought our house in 2000 and had it paid for in 2005. We didn’t eat out, go to movies or anything. We figured a few years of austerity was worth it to not pay interest for 25 years. And it was.
Nice work!! I bought my home in 2009 and debt free since 2018. I was only 32 years old and blue-collar worker. It is a great feeling being comfortable and knowing that my young family will be financially stable even if something happens to me. I hate debt and the way our peoples labor has been stolen with this fractional reserve banking/usury. I have to play in this broken system for now but try to give them as little of my hard earned money as possible.
Debt free is the only way to be.
He’s saying it in code to avoid saying it outright.
What he’s saying is lying without lying in an effort to misdirect the public.
He’s as good as a liar.
The democrats redefine everything to suit their needs. As Rep Cortez said “gender and language are fluid”.
The democrats change meanings of words to suit their dishonest needs.
i.e. vaccine
He knows if he speaks directly, he will never be back on any network and will be doxed. He cannot risk that. In his position, can’t blame him.
It will be interesting to see how people cope when they realize that its not going away for a very long time, if not forever. A green economy is a slave economy.
A not insignificant portion of them supported it. Not just with their votes but they really believed the climate change propaganda. Our population is so dumbed-down they will believe any fairytale they are told by the TeeVee or at school.
Did a significant support it? We don’t know given the fraud. I strongly believe we outnumber them.
It could not have been done without a treasonous fraudulent election.
Americans need to stop being dumb and stupid.
And FAST!!!!!!
I believe in climate change. I call it Winter ,Spring ,Summer ,and Fall.
WEATHER!!
Selling our home. Gonna downsize further outside of town. Hoping to catch something on the down slide by being patient.
If we can get enough votes tallied to get a different party in charge, I do not have a lot of confidence that they will do as needed to stop the bleeding.
If by “party” you mean POLITICAL party, a Repub majority will only provide cover for the worst of the many “Biden admin scandals”.
And if by “party” you mean PDJT, without AmericaFirst MAGA people in local, State and Federal offices, I fear a 2nd PDJT term will be a repeat of the first.
However, the desperation with which the Insane Idiots In Charge are trying to block A1 candidates at all levels, and are desperate to prevent PDJT from running again, gives me some optimism.
There is only one ‘party’…the uniparty..and they do not give two hoots about The People
There is only one solution… Military intervention.
No. Absolutely no. You think Milley and the current woke crowd of gender fluid soldiers will help?
Pretty sure the military and the IC have opposing factions. Lots of evidence of that. Most of it is out of sight, but like a swimmer under water, ocassionally bubbles surface.
Those in the military who are not “woke” will shoot the ones in the military who are “woke”. I am not worried about it in the least.
I had ten houses but sold three in the last few months. The rest are max 25% loan to equity, and rents and cash flow are by far the best I’ve ever had.
In 2005 I had 14 homes purchased in the mid to late 90’s, after the late 80’s crash, and sold six. Bought a few more for cash back in 2012-14. Real estate is not that complicated.
The NAR is one of the largest lobbyist (2021 – $44,000,000+) and strive to make it as difficult as possible. Stay away from agents. I have for 40 years. Sold all my property over the past three years. It is not at all difficult, otherwise my dumbass would never have been involved in it.
It is not at all difficult, otherwise my dumbass would never have been involved in it.
What you tell yourself becomes you operating code. You certainly aren’t a dumbass.
Yep, I’ve almost always bought and sold for myself. Also a dumbass 😉
My wife is a licensed agent. I’m glad your transactions worked out for you (BTW how many did you do last year?) There’s a million ways a transaction can go bad, and that’s not counting getting less for your property than you could have with an agent.
“Real estate is not that complicated.” Maybe it isn’t complicated, but it can be tough to know what the best thing to do is right now. I am renting a condo, but the owner is going to sell it before the full force of the economic storm hits. So should I:
a) Buy the condo I am living in?
b) Rent another place until home prices drop?
c) Purchase another home with the cash I have?
d) Finance another home while the rates are still relatively low?
e) ?
B)
And throw that cash you have into something inflation-protected. Series I-Bonds are at like 9.6% right now. Drop $10,000 in there. Form a trust and drop another $10,000 in if you have it. Or if you have a spouse or kids, $10,000 each. Form an LLC for another. It’s better than cash at .1% in your money market, and far less risky than the stock market right now.
Unless you run a business where you are super confident you could invest that money with a 9%+ return. The high rent will suck for a while but being backwards in a home with a loan is far worse. Buy low, sell high. I’m considering selling my $1.5 million home and renting for a while. Just need to convince the wife and kids lol.
Thanks for the advice! I was leaning towards b).
Good luck convincing the wife and kids!
What does this idiot mean we IMPORTED the problem? Josef Stolen “FJB” Biden’s* energy policy is ENTIRELY an internal problem.
—
*I REALIZE he is not in charge, but rather it is the people behind him running the show, but his name is on the signature line.
My point is, even WITHOUT runaway spending (another problem we did not “import”) energy prices would have fueled inflation because we cut off supply.
Inflation will cause anyone of fixed income to reduce their consumption and limit all discretionary spending.
Expect the vacation/travel/hotel industry to tank. It used to be that entertainment bucked recessions but I’m not sure that will continue so things like sports and movies may also suffer more this time.
Restaurants never recovered from COVID and now they get a second whack.
The left is going scorched Earth.
And right after 2022 (assuming Dominion is ordered to stand down), the GOP will be to blame for all of it. That will be the common, non stop theme of all media coverage assuming the GOP is allowed to take charge of the disaster zone.
I’m old and on a fixed income and you can bet your bippy I’m pulling in my horns. I’m not living on Social Security and not going to be hurting but I’m not going to be wasting anything either.
Also retired and on a pension and Social Security.
Retirement hasn’t been as carefree as it was under Mr. Trump, but I have cut back on trips to town, from 2-3/ week to 1/week to 10 days, dropped my gym membership, enlarged my garden, bake my own bread, added some laying hens, dropped cable tv, eat out very seldom, dropped some magazine subscriptions and made some other adjustments.
I think I’ll be okay.
My main concerns are property taxes, home and auto insurance and utilities.
I will be looking at doing some sort of work on-line, so I won’t have to drive.
I am grateful to have no debt at all, and to live on enough ground to raise a good part of my own food.
My point is that I feel more peace of mind now, than I would if I had to live in town and had debt.
My advice to anyone who can swing it, is to leave the big city, even if you need to change jobs to do so. Get a small house on a fair sized piece of land where you can raise food. Pay cash for an old, but dependable vehicle.
And young people, unless you are going to be a doctor or engineer or something where you must attend college, don’t go to college!
Learn a trade! Lots of businesses are looking for plumbers, electricians, mechanics, carpenters. And they make very good money! Many of those employers will pay for you to go to trade school.
Going into debt to get a degree is volunteering to be a slave to government!
Spit yourself out of this failing system.
“… reduce their consumption and limit all discretionary spending.”
….bearing in mind that discretionary spending includes beef, ice cream, and all clothing items for anyone on fixed income. For years, I only have purchased clothing at Goodwill. A couple of weeks ago I made an investment in two cuts of beef for the first time in months, and am preparing it carefully for maximum # of meals.
I’m not going hungry and I will not go hungry for several good reasons: beef and ice cream are not necessary to a nutritious diet. And I have family who stand by in constant practical ways. And I know how to work on limited provisions….
Hugely expanded the raised garden area this year so we could (jointly) raise most of our own vegetables. Family did all the work for the new expansion and laid out the cash: I’m doing the watering and the weeding and the preserving. Although—watering is sort of unnecessary here in central Oregon this year.
Since April, we have set one all-time record after another with regard to low temps and high rainfall. Right now at mid-day, it’s 53 degrees and it’s been raining almost nonstop for about three days in this latest bit.
The doomsday people who loved the 115 (F) heat we had last June now have a big sad.
I dunno…
I can do without beef, but ice cream is a necessity!
That’s what I was thinking!
Milk and ice cream!
I have cut out all the other non necessity items. But still hanging on to my ice cream and milk!
That is why the scoundrels call it “Climate Change”, not “Global Warming” anymore.
So it includes below average cold.
Nope!! A lot of well to do people on earth. It may tank in Amerika. But not in Mexico! 🌴
FMX for funneling millions through their sick cartel-run nation to land in mine with their grubby hand out for my bread.
I hope volcanoes and a million earthquakes level that fleabag sh!thole of an enemy state!
I have come to terms it really is a great, and permanent, reset. Maybe call it a rollback. We will all take a 35% pay cut and give up 35% of our net worth. That’s simply the new starting point going forward.
35% of 0 is still 0.
35 seems light. I’m thinking 50-60…
Are the billionaires and DC traitors going to give up their money, caviar, champagne, jets, multiple mansions, limos? I think we know the answer. They had better hide in their underground lairs in NZ when people start going hungry.
They (The commies) are aiming for 90+ % reduction in personal wealth.
If only it was that. Eventually, you will not be allowed to own private property and will have to be in compliance with the government in all things to be allowed to buy food.
Oh, but the Klaus WEF people will own everything and live high on the hog.
Mark of the Beast.
In Amerika!
Now might be a good time to acquire some precious metals.
I know the people running the regime aren’t too bright and, being the closed-minded ideologues they are, probably don’t realize they’re killing their chances for future electoral success, but that’s what worries me – to what length will these 0bamatons go to cling to power this time?
We’ve already seen blatant political witch hunts, leftist induced mob violence, the utter destruction of the Democrat held House of Representatives and a blatantly stolen election. . . . of course the answer is more stolen elections, but I really don’t think they can ‘quietly’ pull it off on such a scale again with the whole country watching . . . . . and that’s what worries me.
Growing up as a young boy/man, I learned first hand the devastating effectiveness of “the sucker punch”.
However, its like the Trojan horse, it only works once, as in “fool me once”.
THEY may think they can use ballot fraud in 2022, “just like we did in 2020, and have been doing for YEARS before”.
This election, far too many of the electorate are watching, and are not going to be “caught by surprise” by the ‘sucker punch’, nor going to waste valuable time, energy and $ attempting to challenge election results in Court, or protesting in the Court of Public opinion, as we did in 2020.
“Revolts are like avalanches, they occur very slowly, and then all at once.”
THEY will surely “try it again”, as they have already “jumped the shark” and can NOT back off, or even try to maintain position, but MUST move forward.
At SOME point, in every revolt, there is a “triggering event”; the straw that breaks the camels back.
Often, the regime has previously committed more outrageous, blatant acts, that have NOT triggered any significant responce.
This is what history shows.
I think we are VERY close to the moment (and moving closer each day).
The sheeple HAVE looked up from their grazing, they have woken up and red pilled.
Election theft in 2022, may well be the triggering moment, but whether it is or not, the moment IS coming.
When they say “by any means necessary”, they mean every word of it. Problem is they have no real opposition, at least in the political realm.
it’s why they are targeting conservative Supremes. Antifa’s chief videographer is in front of Kavanaugh’s house as we speak. (per the latest news footage. He’s the one on the bike with the nice camera.)
but our government says antifa is only an ‘idea’….
so there is no-one to prosecute for the threats, shootings and other violence.
You are missing the point. There will be no more elections. WEF toads will be appointed.
What worries me is the country NOT watching.
If Hunty Biden is the smartest person who Sleepy Joe knows, that doesn’t speak well for Sleepy’s economic advisors. The economic conditions tend to confirm that.
but hunter makes million$, so he must be a smart economic advisor.
My prediction. The Un-humble, transitory Biden Administration will do everything they can to make things worse.
Prepare accordingly.
You are correct, and that crucial point is what was completely omitted in El-Erian’s always- vain exercise of addressing the current state of the economy.
Now, I do find him interesting because he knows perfectly well what’s going on in the world (also pointed out on many occasions by Sundance!), but he’s trapped by his own ambitions to offer his professional services to the wealthy woke class, and he would be disposed of faster than you can flush a toilet if he were to entertain the thought that Biden was somehow culpable.
And on that point, no coded language would ever be risked by El-Erian whose woke pose is the price of fabulous wealth, as he surely reckons.
His only comment in the direction of the Big Biden Flop was the annoying suggestion that you could throw money at inflation by “doing something for the lower income groups (a paraphrase)” and by increasing childcare subsidies to allow mothers to return to work. He has to know that would be inflationary (but, hey, that’s what a woke freek would say, right?). AND HE ALSO KNOWS that another disastrous fiscal policy choice must also accompany the idiotic throwing of money at an inflationary spiral, i.e., higher levels of taxation on those that create the ever- dwindling supply of ever-more expensive merchandise so that large amounts of their discretionary income end up in the US Treasury and not in their private bank accounts to be spent or invested.
And, as the song goes, ‘that’s why the lady is a tramp!’
I am sure that Mitch and the 12 RINOs will be prepared to co-sign the next stimulus check for whatever amount FJB wants.
See, they have no worries, they padded their bank accounts while in office from bribes, cut out payments and they will be soon leaving the Senate and drinking from a sippy cup in old age homes not knowing their names, what day it is and what they have done to kill the country.
“we need more workers entering the labor force”. open border supplies them.
But the illegal aliens are not entering the regular labor force. They are expecting paychecks from US tax payers or they are living on cash transactions for labor, so they will never pay taxes.
SEND THE BASTARDS BACK………………… problem solved. In my dreams – sorry!
For what – chopping weeds or other sweat labor? Do you really think there are trained people in that mess? I think maybe trained to haul drugs or shoot people like with the cartel. Bet there are no plumbers, carpenters, IT people, etc.
Someone is getting richer off all this misery.
The same families that have for centuries, and their minions.
I know folks who did purchase houses recently and got caught up in the bidding and paid 10% above asking price. They paid cash, but I would never have done it.
I was going to purchase a new luxury SUV this year, but most models were not available and were $5000 plus over sticker price.
I have our normal Summer vacation booked, and am debating canceling as I may just want to save the cash for what’s coming.
I’m torn though because I’m wondering will this be the last year a vacation is even an option for the non-elite?
Lulu: Our annual family get-together is upcoming. We’ll be doing a lot of driving to get there. Family and time to decompress are much more important than saving a few dollars. Don’t change your plans. Take the vacation. Don’t let JoeBama alter your plans.
Why not scale it back to exploring the area around you?
Even if you drive only 50 miles from home, you’ll be getting away and having a chance to decompress.
I am also in the market for a home this year and prices have basically tripled since 2019, at least for the segment I am looking at. I finally decided to shelve it until this mess shows me some clarity. Last thing I would want is a big note / underwater house, OR to put big $ into the sellers pocket and watch equity disappear.
Here in Palm Beach County the market has gone nutz, with sellers buying six months ago and listing today for $1m more. We are starting to see prices back off just a bit. I wish we moved out here in 2019. instead of end of last year.
I did this very thing in order to park some of my money in property vs stocks. I imagine both of them will plummet, but at the end of the day I will have a rental income producing property vs a gutted stock portfolio. Could be wrong but that’s the way I see it.
Question. How do we stop the green new deal transition and lower energy prices? Do we need to accept and suffer until Trump gets back in
How?
Start by taking control of Congress away from the green-crazed Democrats!
Can’t wait to hear congresswoman Palin lecture the new minority leader Pelosi in 2023.
It’s the GOP that destroyed Trump in the first two years of his administration, they then quit en mass and threw the midterm election to the Dems, and then did nothing to protect Trump the last two years.
I think the GOP is the problem.
As a Buchananite I agree wholeheartedly and came to the same conclusion after the 1996 primaries steal by the Democrats, Rinos, and China.
Right. The GOP are the only problem. It can’t possibly include any Dem.
I suggest you expand your list of culprits.
magatrump: Start within your own sphere of influence and control. Make necessary adjustments at home and with you family. Then, support allies in your neighborhood (favored small businesses, for example). Set a good example and live the life you want to live, the way you want to live it.
All I can say, is if they still vote Democrat, I hope the clot shot takes rapid effect upon them!
“Thousand Points Of Light” by Council On Foreign Relations and CIA Director Bush was “Twilight Language”. It was the thousands of pages of legislation of the America wrecking NAFTA Agreement he had to have his stepson (sarc) criminal CFR Bill Clinton pass
Colkitto: Agree. Twisted people. Twisted language. Every time the globalist controllers introduce some strange new term (“global reset”), slogan (“Build Back Better”), or phrase (“a thousand points of light”), it’s time to watch you back.
Same with gun control, e.g., “assault rifle,” “high capacity magazine,” and the latest eye-roller, “high caliber ammunition.”
Sundance likes using “Word salad” which works also. When Papa Bush said “A New World Order” he was telling us in their coded language that their treasonous & criminal “Free Trade” deals were meant to outsource our jobs, supply chain independence, economic base (the foundation for a solid good economy) to China. NWO was their planned rise of Chinese totalitarianism ( which they adore) and the decline of America. A NWO.
Treason of the highest order.
Regards bill.
This will not last. It will not be the end.
The whole green economy stuff is like a house of cards, to quote a master of words:
Vinny: Look, maybe I could have handled the preliminary a little better, okay? I admit it. But what’s most important is winning the case. I could do it. I really could. Let me tell you how, okay? The D.A.’s got to build a case. Building a case is like building a house. Each piece of evidence is just another building block. He wants to make a brick bunker of a building. He wants to use serious, solid-looking bricks, like, like these, right?
[puts his hand on the wall]
Bill: Right.
Vinny: Let me show you something.
[he holds up a playing card, with the face toward Billy]
Vinny: He’s going to show you the bricks. He’ll show you they got straight sides. He’ll show you how they got the right shape. He’ll show them to you in a very special way, so that they appear to have everything a brick should have. But there’s one thing he’s not gonna show you.
[turns the card, so that its edge is toward Billy]
Vinny: When you look at the bricks from the right angle, they’re as thin as this playing card. His whole case is an illusion, a magic trick. It has to be an illusion, ’cause you’re innocent. Nobody – I mean nobody – pulls the wool over the eyes of a Gambini, especially this one. Give me a chance, one chance. Let me question the first witness. If after that point, you don’t think that I’m the best man for the job, fire me then and there. I’ll leave quietly, no grudges. All I ask is for that one chance. I think you should give it to me.
I feel hopeful when I remember how swiftly our President Trump was able to turn things around. He can do it again. And if not him, DeSantis or the next true Patriot with God’s blessings.
You have to live somewhere. If your mortgage is less than your next best alternative, then you are in a great place whether you have a mortgage or not.
My mortgage payment right now, refinanced 20 months ago at 2.875, is 30% of what a rental would be in these parts.
,,,and about a quarter of what a new house payment, almost anywhere, would be!!
My property taxes, much as I hate them, are one tenth of what I’d pay for a rental.
I’ve been debt free since 1994 and it’s been liberating.
When you are highly leveraged with loans, but at long term fixed rates, and your income is not fixed (especially income directly related to this fixed loans), you LOVE inflationary periods. The inflated income at rates higher than you are paying on fixed debt service makes your debt to income ratio shrink massively.
I’m in investment real estate. My largest expense on each month’s balance sheet are my mortgages. All are fixed at rates in the 3-4% range. While I do have expense line items that do increase proportional to inflation (repairs and remodels, property taxes, appliances, etc) my principle and interest on my mortgages remain the same. On the other side of the balance sheet, my assets have grown 30% in a year, and rents (and resultant cash flows) have sky-rocketed as well.
Lets say I had $10 million in debt at 4% in June 2021, on $20 million in total property owned. My debt is 50% of assets. Even putting aside the massive cash flow improvement of higher rents (let’s say I pay myself all that extra cash instead of paying down loans), in one year of this 30% AZ inflationary real estate market, my loans have decreased around $300,000 as tenants paid my P/I, and my real estate values have increased to $26,000,000. So now I have $9,700,000 debt to $26,000,000 in assets. I now have a 37% debt to asset ratio, in just one year! I’m also $6,300,000 richer simply in principle paid plus appreciation, PLUS my additional cash flow.
This is what our governments are doing. They have massive debt taken over the last many decades. They sell bonds…fixed contracts to pay you back a guaranteed return. Our citizens and corporations buy them, financial investment firms buy them on behalf of investors, China and others buy them. They are like little mortgages our government takes from us, at very low rates. As the Fed lowered rates, they borrowed tons more and even “refinanced” at the lower rates, just as I refinanced loans I took at 8% back in the late 90’s down to 3-4%.
Now…inflation. We have trillions in debt, and spend trillions. Our federal debt is mostly fixed at low rates. The federal income is mostly taxes on income (which is inflating) and asset sales (also inflated). State tax income is based mostly on things like property taxes and sales taxes (also inflated). But the debt is mostly fixed.
They are doing this intentionally, to decrease their debt to asset ratios and debt to income ratios. And it’s being done off our backs. We pay the higher prices and associated taxes. They will take in record after record in taxes, but their bond repayment interest costs will be fixed for 10, 20, 30 years.
Our debt ratios will look better temporarily, and the politicians will say “See, we made progress on the federal debt! We can raise spending and print more money, things are fine!”. Rinse and repeat, all on the backs of us, the lowly citizens.
Excellent comment!!
MostlyRight: Excellent explanation. Yet, the sitation is made worse for most invididual taxpayers, because their gross pay is not increasing with inflation. Inflation, taxes, regulatory fees, etc. are sucking a larger portion of income out of peoples’ pockets (especially, small business owners, who get hit with employer taxes and fees, on top of personal taxes).
This won’t last 10 years. It won’t even last 2. The defaults and bankruptcies will put an end to people’s tolerance of the massive inflation.
Also as our dollar loses value you are still paying your mortgage in the same amount of dollars, hence hedge against inflation.
Exactly!
Interesting analysis, I get it and will benefit in similar ways as you.
Below is for the grunts carrying this burden:
Inflation has increased your annual expenses by the equivalent of one full month. Simply put, you now have 13 months of bills with the same 12 months of income.
Anyone not believing this is all by design is a fool and danger to the Republic.
Correct. The middle and lower classes are hurt the most. Inflation is the “invisible tax” on the lower to middle classes the politicians don’t have to pass, bailing themselves out of decades of debt spending and printing money. And our retired folks who are savers are crushed. This is the federal government intentionally making a wealth transfer from the Baby Boomer and older generations and middle classes. Why? That’s where the money is.
Elections have consequences and stolen elections have catastrophic consequences. Republican “leadership” better be thinking of what can be done to castrate this administration when it takes control of House and Senate in November.
All they have to do is repeat what they did to Trump.
What makes you think the Republican leadership wants to castrate the Biden administration?
They seem to be in cahoots with them.
Coded language = Energy transition taqiya
Sooooooo.we are not in a recession?…Maybe when he said no, it is true, because we are really in the beginning of a depression…
I purchased a home in 2019. Luckily, I’m on a 30 yr fixed loan at the super low rates that we had in 2019. Have no other debt besides the home. My home has also increased in value a ton. (Not that I’m selling) lol.
As much as I dreamed of being, Lisa Douglas, I was always just Ma Kettle.
Pa and I had our first fight over money, some weeks ago when I asked to be, all cash.
It wasn’t going well, for Ma, because Pa thinks he’s the brains, by hiding our nest egg from me all these years. That was payback, for Ma, dragging Pa up the ladder, professionally and financially, for 33 years. Darn, I had mouths to feed !!!
But a funny thing happened in those 5 sad days of fighting. Ma won because we lost $65,000. I got Pa’s attention and begged his trust.
We are living simply. No debt, since 2008. But Pa likes to scramble my brain, as to why we don’t pay off the mortgage. My rate is 2.6, blah blah, money is more valuable now, than down the road. Pa is a Bentley Graduate, bless him. But we are 2.6 away from being teenagers, in our golden years. Thus all cash. How can we not remember, that we had to wait 8 years, for four Trump years, to recover our losses from 2008. We don’t have that luxury.
The taxes were mind bending. I never realized I wasn’t living in a monogamous relationship. Uncle Sam has been an interloper and will be with us, until we die and beyond that. F them all, both sides. I liked the way Neil says” banging, on and on about this”. I could also go banging on and on about that.
Everyone here has been so valuable. I have grown up enough to be wrong. I don’t think we are, but taking the steps to secure us through the storm, came from the courage I have gathered here. Trust is NOT my strong suit, so being wrong was the end of the world, all my life.
I feel ok. Pa too. I feel like an adult, finally. Able to have real conviction and strength. And I was nudged by coming here.
Priceless. Thank you.
Funny, as we grow older I think I have grown smarter only to find out it is only true sometimes. How come one mainly learns by their mistakes. Downsized 15 months ago , so was able to put away some $ . No mortgages for last 25 years. Just recently went back to work, 20 to 30 hours per week @15 an hour. One positive thing on higher interest rates will be an additional $ on fairly secure t notes and cds. Maybe break even due to huge escalation on food and fuel and everything else. Even in sw fl. , anticipate leveling or falling RE prices. One thing I did learn 15 years ago is it is not how much u make . More important is how much you spend . Pray and pray more.
I have 2 sayings, I have banged on about all my life to my kids, “The truth always finds it’s way home”, and “If I am right, then the worst possible scenario has unfolded”.
Either way, courage is always the solution to the problem. We are only graced with courage, though prayer.
So, like many you have decided to go minimal saving & checking and converted mostly to precious metals like platinum, gold, silver, brass and lead? Good move there OK’d by granny Clampett.
Granny sold out to the man and regretted it. Looks like it probably killed her early even. LOL.
I sold my home in Portland in November – I had to get out of there. Thought about renting it out but the laws in Portland are really punitive for landlords…I heard horror stories. Now I’m renting in the Seattle area…waiting for prices to come down. Luckily I have a beautiful home at a very reasonable rate. I bought a hybrid car last year…almost 30 MPG and that’s it for my debt. I’m sort of ready for the hurricane….I think.
Are all of htese jerks in on the plan or paid to lie or just gullible! r/ Amazes me the coordination and no, not naive I realize the check is waved, the fake news hands him a semi script and pays for him to play??? I don’t know.
Been reading article about large increase in the rate Credit Card debt is being amassed by consumers.
25% interest payment is 75% less than the debt balance being the operative concept. Credit Card statements have even been listing LONG TERM repayment terms, for quite some time.
People know via their Credit Card Statements that they are being burned over time by adopting this concept. Yet, near term subsistence needs have a way of making people very near term, day to day, oriented.
During the Carter Regime, this same situation saw the rise of Credit Card Schemes … take out new cards to pay for old cards as well as generate short term cash flow. Look for this one to begin again and be more sophisticated making it harder to for card companies to detect.
I cannot get my Adult children to understand, exactly what you are saying.
It’s like they see everyone else jumping off the bridge and so they do.
The transponders run strong with my youngins.
They know, I will only give them butter sandwiches, when they crash and burn.
They don’t see anything on the horizon.
I am a crazy lunatic, to them. They even call me “Debbie Downer”, amongst themselves, idiots.
Some people only learn through experience.
I am sure you did the best you could. Just pray for them.
That’s all I can do for my relatives. I’ve been preaching for 40 some years. But they just kept drinking the kool-aid.
I like the ‘cash back’ credit cards. That has to be a scam.
We have a Costco executive membership with a Costco credit card. We pay for EVERYTHING with it, pay it in full every month, and earn over $1000 a year. It’s a good deal for us.
Don’t think that credit card scheme ever went away. 🙄
Going to be great when we use unstable, inefficient, and not really renewable energy, while the rest of the world and enemies use gas…
What could possibly go wrong!!!
The states could ban new EV sales on the basis of child labor, toxic pollution, etc. Will FL do it?
Paid our house off many years ago and are debt free! We will stay that way. Debt is nothing more than serfdom. So far, here in socal, real estate prices are not dropping. We live west of the I-5. Don’t know how people can afford these million plus dollar shacks. It’s crazy.
I’m in the Valley and houses in my neighborhood are selling for more than I paid for mine in 2019, even though those houses are less sq.ft. No pool, no view. You are correct- the prices are not going down and the homes don’t last more than 2 weeks on the market before being sold. Wild West out here
Same here….west of the I-5, and nary a for sale sign anywhere in the neighborhood. Usually anything within reason gets snapped up by a developer…bulldozed and flipped.
California’s trying its hardest to bring high density to the burbs….they will soon be allowing 4 houses on what used to be a single lot. Insanity…..
If China even hints at making a real move on Taiwan the house prices in Southern California will double! Same for Vancouver. The craziness in San Francisco, Portland and Seattle will still keep the buyers away.
Yup…
Retired Magistrate here: The real estate market here in Delaware County, Ohio was good until about three weeks ago and then everything just stopped. Houses that would have been in contract within several days are now just sitting. Nothing is moving. More realtors are having open houses and I am starting to see people drop prices. There are still some realtors that haven’t gotten the message yet and have priced their listings over what they are worth; those houses will sit for a long time.
A lot of houses in this area sold from $50,000 to $100,000 over their true value. In a short time those buyers will be upside down if they already aren’t. The same thing happened in 2007-2008. I expect this time it will be a lot worse.
On a more positive note, people are still out and about enjoying the Summer: boating, going to the Columbus Zoo and their water park, bicycling, walking dogs and just living life.
Our house is 65 years old and we have not remodeled nor do we intend to. People ask us when are you going to update; we answer, we aren’t; we like it just the way it is. It is paid for and we do the necessary repairs to keep it in good shape.
Remember, freedom starts in your mind, then in your home, then in your community, your township, county and state. Do what you can in your area to live the life that you want. Keep company with like minded people who have positive outlooks and don’t depend on the government to survive.
We will get through this.
Same in SW Ohio. The occasional houses being offered in our neighborhood were selling in 24 hrs I kid you not.
One offered across the street is getting very little interest and it is move in ready.
I think those kids are going to be in trouble.
I have been reading your post often and like what you say and how you explain things.
Blessing yo you.
If you are in debt now, you are in trouble.
companies will start laying off people to save their souls on the exchanges.
good thing we got a couple million fresh arrivals showing up from everywhere this year!
Glad to read about so many “good for you” Treeper stories. It is the Libtard “Useful Idiots” who are going to suffer most. Which they deserve in spades.
Maybe it is just me, but everyone is going to lose this time.
One can even make the argument that those with CASH and no debt will lose more as their CASH will become worthless.
Whenever there is uncontrollable inflation, people spend whatever money they make EACH day as FAST as they can, because tomorrow it will purchase LESS!
The top 0.01% will be the only winners this time!
You can not have a serious conversation about the root cause of inflation without first acknowledging the importance of currency debasement. Inflation is ALWAYS first and foremost, a monetary policy issue. Prices are just an extension of monetary policy that includes market supply and demand influence. If you don’t accept that the root cause of inflation is central bank dilution of the intrinsic value of money, than you are either ignorant or a liar. And I don’t believe El Erian is ignorant.
There is no stopping the Cat-5 sideways shit-storm that is going to hit and overwhelm this country.
Thank you Sundance for keeping us informed with the truth during these very troubled times.
There’s a saying ‘worse is better’ in order to stir the masses out of their slumber.
The great awakening is upon us.
Where I live in Western NC real estate is still booming. My neighbor sells real estate and is getting rich. Housing prices just keep skyrocketing. Everyone wants to live here…people from New York and California with big bucks are grossly inflating the value of property.
For me and my normal neighbors a crash in the real estate market would be a blessing. I have always done better in economic bad times because I live a very basic lifestyle by choice…former back-to -the-land hippie. No debt to speak off..well just bought a tablet for fun not work, highly unusual, so I put it on a credit care, $400, I can pay it off right now if I want.
I am a bit concerned about food costs though, but I can afford to cut back on some things in that area if needs be. My car, 14 years old, in great condition gets 30 mph, right now I use 5 or 6 gallons per week, I work from home, I use it primarily to food shop and go hiking, which is free except for gas but I can stay closer to home to hike if necessary.
I am a survivor.
Real estate is still booming, but I predict it’s going to be 2008 all over again. In 2008 people were kicked out of their homes because the banks had no business loaning to them in the first place. But now, once the value of their inflated homes begins to fall, they will just walk away from those mortgages in masses. I’m selling homes now for $350, that just last year were only bringing $250. Even though the banks are supposedly loaning to more responsible people now, it won’t matter once they see that their investment has reversed drastically. They will all walk away.
Incredibly, the news media will actually tell people to walk away from their home if it’s fmv falls below the mortgage. They don’t say that about new car loans!
Can you imagine what this would all be if Trump was still in the White House?
Impeachment # 3 ? But then again, that’s a hypothetical that couldn’t be possible.
El Erian is the closest we have, to an “expert” speaking the truth, even if coded language, demonstrates just how f*cked we are.
“Mostly will effect the poor”, lol.
From an elite in his position, he means US.
He is not only ceo of his company, but is ALSO pulling in 6 figure income as head of a University.
So, by “poor” he means anyone who pumps their own fuel, does their own grocery shopping, changes their kids diapers, cooks their own meals, or landscapes their own yards…he means US.
This inherent bias in both the “experts” and the talking heads asking the questions,…epitomises the problem.
The elites really have NO CLUE what “Average Americans think, feel or pervcieve. Truly CLUELESS.
“Oh”, we need to encourage workplace participation, by getting the Govt MORE involved in peoples lives, by regulating childcare, and subsidising it.” (yeah, cause its worked out so well for k-12 and University!)
And get the government more active in retraining/retooling.
Like teaching coal miners to code, and pipeline workers to make solar panels.
And these elites ACTUALLY BELIEVE what they are saying, and that THEY are the compassionate ones!
Bring on the guiotines, its TIME.
I set my mortgage debt at a fixed rate about a year ago. If the dollar continues to decline, I will be paying it off with less valuable money. I lived through the Carter stagflation and it was not pretty. This Biden stagflation is already making the Carter years look like a honeymoon by comparison. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we end up in a decade long depression. By the way, this destructive bidenite activity is intentional.
I retired and my wife and i paid off our hour house, sold it, and moved the hell out of Commie California. Doesn’t get better than that
Debt free for 13 years, all except the mortgage, which I refinanced a couple years ago with monthly $825 mortgage–well within my means.
But in Boise, Idaho, home alues are definitely NOT DECREASING. Just got a letter from. The state treasurer preparing us for yet another prop tax increase because hpising values are thru the roof. (Bought my home 2018 for $300k, have had offers from complete strangers for $485k–even with less than 1400 square feet and no fireplace! Yep, it’s overvalued; but 2/3 of the mortgage is paid for, so once the shock hits, I should be ok initially.
Trusting more in God everyday to see His people thru this. It won’t be easy for anyone, but this day of reckoning has been incoming for a while now.
Godspeed, Treepers…..
Got the yearly letter from the mortgage company yesterday, escrow is short, gone up $360.00 a month, between taxes and homeowners increase.
Just bend over. Up 100% from 2020 on taxes and $100 on insurance.
Ya know how it improves you incompetent jagoffs? Restart ALL of Trumps fiscal policies. These iceholes are not trying. Don’t want to try and refuse to admit Trump did good
They’re admitting to treason: hiding under a pretense to impose an extremist environmental agenda on Americans. They deserve what Goering got.
Libya oil shut down……
In Canada…
Canadians could expect 30% higher mortgage payments by 2026: Bank of Canada
https://tnc.news/2022/06/10/canadians-could-expect-30-higher-mortgage-payments-by-2026-bank-of-canada/
There is hope Mohamed is replaced by a qualified and honest person,
There is hope Biden will leave office tomorrow,
There is hope that the CIA will be broken up into a million peaces.
There is hope…
But not for us …