A Gallup news survey [DATA HERE] indicates that eight out of ten Americans expect higher prices and continued rising inflation, as the working class can see the through the smoke and mirrors of the Biden economy.
Overall, there are multiple datapoints that show the economic quagmire that is taking place right now. Gasoline continues to rise in price, as oil costs continue to skyrocket as an outcome of Biden energy policy. Food store prices have only just begun to show the higher prices that are built into the replenishment process.
Newly arriving goods overall are at a much higher price that previous inventory. The 30, 60 and 90-day terms of purchase order fulfillment are now reflecting the cumulative cost increases at every stage in the supply chain. Inbound prices to retail are still climbing. This is an economic quagmire created by inflation that cannot be avoided.
Fuel, food, home energy and home prices overall are rising. As a result, durable good spending has contracted. CTH has pointed out this dynamic for almost five months; however, the actual data is difficult to extract, because the scale of government spending in 2021 has clouded all of the economic indicators.
The official government inflation statistics at 7 to 9% do not accurately reflect the real inflation being felt by consumers, which is in the 25 to 40 percent range for highly consumable products. If you look around your local community, it is not difficult to see that working class Americans have modified all of their spending priorities to deal with the food, energy and housing inflation that cannot be avoided.
Inventories are climbing. [Article] The pundits claim inventories are building as supply chain issues are resolving. However, that’s not the real story. Inventories are climbing, productivity is dropping, and the Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI) is showing deceleration in manufacturing outputs.
An interesting backward looking graphic from Zero Hedge identified something CTH readers may remember discussing last year. We observed a significant skew inside the machinery of the economy that was created by the massive covid spending bill in early 2021.
The scale of appreciation in the value of homes in the real estate sector seemed to peak in the last two weeks of May and first two weeks of June 2021. From that point appreciation continued, but the rate of appreciation was dropping. Something shifted.
This declining rate of appreciation coincided with the shift in massive investor driven purchases in real estate.
The big hedge funds and financial portfolios started buying homes, and this dynamic created an artificial appreciation rate outside the Main Street worker home-buying dynamic.
Home value increases were not driven by working class families buying homes or moving up. Instead -on a macro level- home values effective mid-2021 were driven by institutional investors shifting to holding real estate assets instead of tenuously more risky paper.
The bottom line is this. Despite the indicators, which have been made useless by massive amounts of money pumped into the economy, we have been in a contracting economic position since mid-2021.
This is a very important aspect to accept when you are thinking about your current financial position, and/or what you may need to do going forward.
If you recognize the absence of real economic activity surfaced mid-2021; and if you accept that absence was hidden by economic activity generated by the spending of government funds injected into the economy; then you can better predict the depth of the hole that was covered up by government intervention.
Accepting that reality then the irreconcilable data starts to make things make sense:
♦ November 2021 retail employment hiring was down. Why? This should have been the pre-holiday hiring spree. However, retailers saw something in their brick and mortar sales that stopped them from hiring.
♦ The third quarter U.S. productivity (June, July, August) was down 5%. Why? If everyone was spending their COVID stimulus, why wasn’t manufacturing making more stuff? The reality was that wholesalers were clearing out product inventories as they knew inbound replacements would cost more…. so, they replaced less.
♦ Inflation wasn’t “transitory”? Why? Because the inflation was driven by the perfect storm of energy policy, monetary policy and government spending.
♦ December 2021, retail sales were lower than December 2020. Why? Because people bought less stuff, because people had less disposable income, because food, fuel, energy, home heating and home living costs were chewing up our paychecks and savings.
♦ The U.S. savings rate started rapidly declining. Why? Inflation.
♦ In the third and fourth quarter 2021, U.S. workers started quitting more (JOLT’s report). Why? A combination of vaccine mandate (minor cause) and people jumping jobs to get higher wages because inflation was crushing them (major cause).
The people predicting more inflation all the way through 2022 are correct. We have only just recently seen the first wave of 2022 product inflation hitting the supermarket in the past two weeks. There will be more waves as the prices embedded inside the cumulative supply chain have yet to surface.
However, stop and think about this overall economic situation, a real quagmire, as identified by the simple datapoints above. The professional political class and financial pundits will never admit the Main Street economy started contracting in the middle of 2021. From their perspective, the money pumped into the system was real. It wasn’t. It was all artificial economic stimulus.
Now, into this very specific -and never before experienced- economic quagmire, where we are supposed to pretend not to know things, the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it will “soon” be time to start raising interest rates, a key step in reversing pandemic-era policies that have fueled hiring and growth but also high inflation.
The Fed is expected to lift its benchmark short-term rate from zero as soon as March, when it also plans to phase out monthly bond purchases that have been intended to anchor longer-term rates.
Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that these actions will help prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched and that the central bank can manage the process in a way that prolongs economic growth and keeps unemployment low. (more)
As I have just outlined above, the “economic growth” they cite is not real. The ‘economic growth‘ was created by government spending.
The government spending has stopped. The cover over the hole is being removed, and the Fed is raising interest rates.
What do you think is about to happen?
FUBAR.
When I am wrong, stop listening to me. In the interim, prepare your family accordingly.
35lb chlorine tabs for pool $199. Everywhere I turn up, up and away. These price increases are going to suck money out of discretionary spending. The pool store clerk said people look at him like he’s evil, complained his paycheck isn’t going up. It’s bad, talk to anyone.
Thanks for the reminder to buy some tabs!
I’d be looking to convert that pool into a root cellar….
Grow fish; eat them, sell them or barter them. This time next year a good size fish may trade for a gallon of gas or dozen of eggs or a RATION CARD for meat! Not possible? Read about 1932 Dust Bowl Days.
And a few chickens. Eggs and meat from scraps.
Gas tank.
If Biden has any chance of replacing Carter as the worst president, the inflation rate calculation used in the Carter era should be used for a clear apples to apples comparison.
The general public needs help understanding just how unprecedented this sh-t storm is in modern times.
I really like the Canadian truckers plan to ring the capital and let the politicians stay there until the food runs out. Hope they have a plan for the planes, trains, and boats, so there is no possibility for escape.
Come on man, apples to apples? Jimah doesn’t have time to wait. The family is estactic with the possibility of Biden moving into the top spot on the “worst” list.
Switch to a salt water pool. Really nice pool swimming water.
Reading thru the comments and noticed that there is no mention of Obama……he and his deep state crooks have the resources to implement a plan like this to destroy the economy. They have been doing this since Biden was elected. They have been doing this slowly, given the sell off of the market and the prices for everything. Now they are going for gold ring. All the media speaks to the next election…..these yahoos are planning so that there won’t be an election….just like the Nazis back in the day.
I paid $10.00 for 50 rounds of .22 rimfire ammunition recently. 20 cents apiece is what I paid for 5.56 NATO as recently as ten years ago!
So yeah, prices are out of control and the FED will be forced to reduce its balance sheet in the very near term or things will get much worse.
I tend to view ammo more as a precious metals investment these days. Better appreciation than silver.
I’ve been retired on a very limited income for almost 14 years. It looks like I’ll be forced back into the labor market.
If you’re double vaxxed and boosted, should not be a problem finding work…
Just sayin’
That is NOT the point.
If you’re double vaxxed and boosted you also may not be in the job market much longer… unless you count pushing up daisies as work.
Just sayin’
Unless you’re being sarcastic, you have totally misunderstood the ENTIRE objective/point of the article…….just sayin’.
No clot shots.
If not backed there are several websites for jobs that do not require you to be vaxxed
And you won’t be the only one.
Don’t bet on anyone raising the amount of non-taxable social security benefits any time soon.
My hubby will be 76 on February 1, and he went back to work in December. Just to keep up…
Taxes went up, gas and electric went up, groceries…well, you know how that’s going!
Dog groomer, once a month, went from $75 to $95.
Gasoline, medicines….it’s brutal.
Sundance
I have been reading your articles for years now.
In the beginning I used to think ” that can’t possibly happen”
Now…
I believe everything you say
Thank you for ripping the blinders from my eyes.
God Bless You.
Yep. Sundance has a track record that can’t be beat.
We bought a car last spring because of Sundance and his prediction that new ones would be scarce. My friends have now said….Why didn’t you tell us? They wouldn’t have listened. Now they are starting to ask questions.
Central Banks are developing their own TRACEABLE / Trackable ” Digital Currency ”
I’ll bet a ‘cyber-pandemic’ event will provide them just the ‘opportunity’ they want to roll it out.
What was ” Cyber-Polygon Exercise ” ????
A Canary Cry … In the Morning!
The Great Reset!
The massive money supply increases over at least three administrations meant inflation was inevitable, first in assets then in services and consumer goods.
It was just about “when”, the immediate trigger didn’t matter much.
Just like in geology, when the pressure builds up enough the point of release can be quite shocking but necessary because it can only get worse at the pressure continues to build.
Intentional damage to the United States.
When the govt slows down spending, layoffs and massive spiral downward. We’re in for a world of hurt.
MaObama-nomics
SNAFU.
Retail and commercial real estate is going to collapse outside of a few metro areas and possibly FL.
Brings memories of the late ’70s / early ’80s…when most or all of the rentable spaces in many office buildings in some metro areas were empty.
In Philadelphia, huge skyscrapers are already half empty. There are a lot of long term leases where the majority of employees are now working from home. The Philadelphia real estate market will crash slowly as the pain will come over the next few years as companies renew their leases for a third of the space.
Initially, my husband was angry that he wasn’t allowed into his office but he soon began to prefer working from home. And we’ve been putting the money we used to spend on his monthly gas and parking to good use. No way he’ll ever go back to commuting downtown every day.
Yep. A lot of employers learned how productive or unproductive their employees were when working from home. Curiously I haven’t seen any headlines about any studies of that. But I have heard and read los many employers who are doing just what you described – downsizing their office space permanently.
The internet along with internet telephone technology and video conferencing technology has made this possible.
I have always thought the internet would eventually make the traditional “going to the office” obsolete.
Until they run out of chips and minerals…
The problem is “Who owns the internet?”. Who can turn it off at will? Who can monitor it? Who can hack it at will? I wouldn’t want to give that kind of control of my company to anyone.
It’s only a problem if the company has employees outside of commuting range. If the internet is taken down, the employees can be phone-called and summoned into the office. Any company that cannot make temporary arrangements to seat visiting normally-telecommuting employees with their laptops for a short while is not thinking strategically. They ought to be able to stand up their internal network with either wi-fi or ethernet.
Another option is to equip all telecommuters with cellular-capable laptops that can transmit and receive data over the cellular networks. A third option is to have dialup modems also available if the cellular networks are down.
Then again, if the internet is taken down, can the company even operate? Many companies have become 100% dependent on WANs that connect their various segments or to other companies (B2B) to function.
The company from which I am retired had such a “Disaster Control Plan” that each department designed and maintained annually. It was a set of procedures that would be followed if facilities were destroyed, internet was taken down, grid power was taken down, etc. It was a real exercise in “what if” that we had to think through and figure out how to maintain continuing operations if at all possible.
Ayn Rand described something like this 75 years ago:
“In the second week of February, for the purpose of conserving copper wire and electric power, a directive forbade the running of elevators above the twenty-fifth floor. The upper floors of the buildings had to be vacated, and partitions of unpainted boards went up to cut off the stairways. By special permit, exceptions were granted—on the grounds of “essential need”—to a few of the larger business enterprises and the more fashionable hotels. The tops of the cities were cut down.”
I was fascinated by her books and the woman herself. Cheers for the reminder of Ayn Rand.
Alvin Toffler predicted in “Future Shock” that the day would come when people would work from home; he referred to the concept as the “cottage industry”. (Written in the late 1960’s or early 1970’s as I recall.) Then came his book “The Third Wave”. He was no George Orwell but ran a close third.
Same in CA as the state, which usually rents a lot of commercial space for its ever increasing Rock Chrissie bureaucracy has recently been shutting offices down and requiring more and more in state employees work from home.
Sorry, I could not find how to edit out “rock chrissie”.. please ignore those two words.
So is the residential market, I’m sorry to say.
Unbeknown to many, I am finding out that several of the homes in my area were bought with “stimulus monies” by people who no way could afford them, but due to “equity programs” received loans anyway. These homes are now going into foreclosure and they have had them less than 1 year!
Happens every time the market is twisted so that people can buy things that they truly can’t afford. It’s unfortunate, but it will lead to opportunities for those in a better cash position to scoop up these properties as they are foreclosed on. My fear, though, is that the larger purchasers will first go begging for a government bailout to prevent foreclosure. We, the little people, will again pay for the follies of the reckless.
Think Blackrock.
Is this part of the World Economic Forum’s theme, “You will own nothing, but you will be happy”?
As one rents the house they once owned from Blackrock?
I can never think Blackrock, because then I need to spit on the floor.
Yep.
You need to read what global banks are instigating! You are no longer a saver, but a shareholder. When the bank bleeds money from bad investment, they will just take your bank account!
They taking lessons from John Corzine and his MF Global fiasco?
Watch this and look at what Bank of America did to their bank
Evil bas turds.
This is where Biden’s White House buddy Blackrock moves in to snap them all up, and then rent them out! Rents paid via benefits using Taxpayer money!
Here I am just having finished my engineering degree and I wonder if this had any sizable factor on me trying to find gainful employment of late.
Damn all of you collectivist scum to hell.
I got my engineering degree during the recession of ’86, had to take a low paying engineering job for a few years as there wasn’t much to choose from for a n00b electrical engineer back then. Still did OK and then switched careers in the 90’s and never regretted it for a second. Turns out I’m pretty good at writing code.
Possibly, but this sure as HELL will –
“Joe Biden Invites More Foreign Workers to Take Americans’ White-Collar Careers”
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/01/22/biden-invites-more-foreign-workers-take-americans-white-collar-careers/amp/
My folks are True Believers and blindly vote for those who want to destroy the country despite my warnings backed with objective data and information.
I PLEADED with them to no avail to not vote for the Crimson Kenyan or the CCP’s willing socket-puppet.
My son is a senior in HS with a heavily loaded STEM course-load, all honors and GHP classes and earned a 4.39 in MP1. He works his ass off to get those grades.
I sent this article to them and outright put it on them for any diminished future and opportunities that their grandson will be denied.
I also reminded them that because he just turned 18 any war that President Shithead starts could put him at some sort of draft risk if it comes to that.
I am DONE having polite and respectful political or policy discussions, with any fkg Progressive!
IDGAF!!
“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”
H. L. Mencken
Push come to shove, I will raise that black flag myself.
I have tried so very hard to work within the rules, do my duty, and fulfill my responsibilities.
They are apparently dead set against allowing me any sizable measure of success in life as I do not check off any of the right intersectional oppression boxes or whatever critical (fill-in-blank) theory is teaching now.
You are a minority. One of the few that works within the rules.
Wonder if something is going on at Amazon. I ordered several boxes of rice. When it arrived, it was packaged in a Sam’s Club box. Shipped from Sam’s Club. Don’t tell me Amazon is running out of products. Anyone have an idea why this happened?
I remember placing an order from Amazon and the package came from Walmart last fall. There must be an agreement between the two companies.
There is, and between Ebay and Amazon on new products as well.
Remember back in the 70s when one would buy a Pontiac and it came with a Buick motor?
I just got an email “Your order from Sam’s Club has arrived.” I don’t belong to Sam’s Club but I did place an order with Amazon (don’t shoot me).
Sellers who are members of Sam’s club are making use of the current offers. Check the Sam’s club price and what you paid on Amazon. They do it all the time on Ebay. Charge $50 for something that they got for $20 at Sams club
Or perhaps Amazon bought Sams Inc.
Amazon ships through third party suppliers
They have deals set up with various vendors that they sell the hell out of their products and pay the vendor pennies on the dollar for their efforts
Just guessing, I don’t know for sure, but I understand that’s how Amazon rolls
That’s why we go to Costco.. screw Amazon
I’m starting to think you may be right.
I ditched Amazon over a year ago now. Doing just fine without. The only thing I haven’t worked out is a solution to is transferring all of my purchased ebooks to other formats. But then again, maybe physical media for what you really want is best.
I have the same problem with my “purchased movies” on there.
It turns out that nothing digital is ever really “purchased” on The Bezos Bazaar. At best it is “leased.” You get to watch the movie you paid for until/unless you decide to quit Prime (I’m guessing), or certainly gone if you stop using amazon entirely somehow… A yuuuge scam…
I am trying hard to watch, and in some cases replace on DVD when I can find bargains, the library of movies I had built up until this realization. But I did cease practically all other purchases on that platform, costing them plenty over the last 18 or so months.
Thrift stores – 2.99 each:) Less if it’s a Monday coupon day…
A lot of sellers (of virtually anything) use Amazon.com as a way to reach people who, for any reason, can’t or won’t go to stores. Amazon charges the seller a commission and sellers increase their sales. So, many people check the Amazon web site before getting into their cars and driving to stores. No masks needed, no vaxx pasport requested, saving on gas, and purchase prices. Not bad!
The problem is that Amazon is one of the primary tools of the Globalarchs.
Their sins against America First are too numerous to attempt to list…
I’ve sacrificed that convenience and figured out ways to get much the same stuff from other sellers – sometimes the very small companies that they are using, directly.
One example: I am in the habit of using K-cups, so I order from a site called perfectsamplers.com. And in this case I’ve done better. I do now pay for shipping, but the direct customer service is good, and I can search all the options more easily. Also, amazon screwed up two large orders (sent regular instead of decaf) before I dumped them, and the coffee was not returnable.
(And yes, I do know that the odious Jeff Bezos is no longer there, but the stink of him remains…)
I have ordered several things through eBay sellers, thinking that I was avoiding Amazon and helping some small seller. I bought from a seller with a low price, but someone who hadn’t sold a zillion of the item. Items came in Amazon boxes or Amazon packaging. I was soooooooooo irritated.
So, now, before buying, I am going to contact the seller and ask if they are a drop shipper for Amazon. Bet they won’t answer.
I think Amazon must have started this about the time that a number of people stopped buying from Amazon.
I’ve gone several times to order “direct” from a company to avoid Amazon and then I find that Amazon fulfills anyway for them. I’ve concluded that you can’t avoid them 100% no matter how hard you try. You just do the best you can.
Yes! And the item comes with a gift receipt. The irritating thing to me is I’ve paid a premium not to purchase from Amazon and all I’ve done is pay someone to click on Amazon for me. Unless I need it right away I return the item at kohl’s letting them know exactly why.
I have seen that before, shipments from Amazon in boxes from Sam’s, Walmart, bestbuy, etc.
I also had that happen to me. It was hair spray shipped in a Walmart box but ordered from Amazon. The Walmart in my small town did not have the brand I wanted.
Yep, and especially Best Buy. You purchased from someone who got it cheaper at Best Buy and then shipped it to you. Its another example of people making money, but building, or producing nothing!
Dropshipper….you ordered on Amazon but from a private seller.
The Stock Market can be a reflection of what is happening as to the mood of People. Although highly manipulated, there come a point whereby manipulation reaches its limits. Reality can no longer be ignored.
There is no one who is not going to feel some sort of pain. It is then People pay attention to the point of doing something about it. Do you think the people will start to wonder if a fraudulent election in 2020 may have something to do with it?
I want to buy my first house with my wife. Inventory disappears fast and prices are rising. Should I buy now or should we wait?
Market is too frothy right now, you could end up buying at the peak – but, it’s impossible to be sure if this is true.
If you’re waiting for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates you will need to wait until we have a Republican President. The Federal Reserve never raises rates on a Democrat especially a Democrat like Biden who has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel! The Federal Reserve is now a department of the Democrat Party like the FBI, DOJ and FDA. They are not going to sabotage Biden before the mid-term election in November at a minimum!
Didn’t the Fed say today that rates would be rising in March?
Yes.
But, could they be lying?
🧐
They will raise rates a trifling 25 basis points in March.
The more important consideration is what they will do with their balance sheet. If they start selling assets, the monetary base will shrink and this will likely affect demand for durable goods.
Wait.
Hunker down, if interest rates go up some more should drop prices and if the economy takes a hit should lower prices . This is the 2nd housing bubble the other burst around 2007. This bubble seems larger. Just one man’s opinion.
I agree with you..
Higher interest and lower price is better for your federal income taxes as well.
Wait
Save your $$, keep it in ajar in the back yard or a hole in the floor, wait for the investor crash.. Most of the investors are foreign nationalist and unless they are part of the Glowbull criminal enterprise their investments will go belly up soon..
Wait, says this retired builder and real estate agent.
if a you plan to stay for a bit and buying a home will give you and your wife peace of mind, buy one. Real estate creates quite the range of emotions.
Wait. Good things come to those with patience.
There is no way I would buy a house now with all this house buying exuberance.
If you believe we will fall into a recession, (stock market down 20% or more) then do not buy a home until market levels off and stabilizes. Why? Market tanks when manufacturing and businesses tank. Unemployment goes up, houses go into foreclosure, prices come down, volume goes up. In my area, as I posted above, many homes were bought by people using “stimulus monies” and were given loans they could not afford under “economic equity” programs. These homes are now going into foreclosure. Less than a year, and they are behind in their mortgages.
P.S. Market down over 10% already. Feds post the first primary interest rate hike & look out!
I am waiting to sell and buy another when foreclosures come roaring up.
Ditto. My advice is to wait as well. And that is advice taken from some far wiser people than myself. One is a 45 year veteran surveyor and the other an assessor of equal duration.
They’ve both seen many crashes and bubbles and while they both admit they’ve never seen stupidity on display as it is today, they say things are unfolding in the same fashion.
It’s the risk takers, greedy, trend followers and a lot of fearful purchasers on the market today. Anyone who says, “if I don’t by now, I’ll be priced out!” Is speaking out of fear and fails to comprehend just how much of the US is undeveloped land. We have only scratched the surface of this nation’s usable land, sure it will take engineering feats and lots of work, but there will always be more land to buy. I grew up in Chicago sprawl, I’ve seen unusable land become the happening place in town.
The patient are those like us sitting back and watching. Not that inaction can’t be a wrong action. Certainly being too cautious would prevent one from ever buying. But we just lived through a stolen election, the mass printing of money, a hoax pandemic and society accepting people who want to chop their parts off as anything more than crazy.
Anyone who says they know where this is going is fooling themselves. This in uncharted territory. And yet, all the same, nothing is any different than ever before. Fear enslaves all who don’t recognize it. I’m scared of losing my job, having to rent forever and going back to lonely man dinners.
And who knows, maybe that is exactly what needs to happen. Maybe, exactly what this world needs is men like you and I, patient, wisdom seeking, hard working and God fearing men to get utterly screwed by corruption. I don’t wish for it, but maybe exactly what I need to take the action I’m supposed to is to find myself broke and begging for scraps. I don’t think God’s plan is that any of us should suffer, bit maybe I’m not fighting in some way today because I’m too comfortable…. renting waiting for the right house.
Where we’re going money doesn’t matter. I mean that both because the Fed’s are idiots and because I’ve never seen a U-Haul behind a herse.(thank you Denzel Washington for that image)
In other times I would have said that’s a better investment than renting, but at this moment in time, renting might not be a bad thing. If you can find a reasonable place for a reasonable price, and if you aren’t setting down roots where you are at.
There is a HUGE housing shortage for rentals. Renting has gone off the charts. You have to have 3 times the rent in income before they will even show the property, pay a finders fee, pay 3 months up front, no pets, or if you have pets they charge outrageous fees per month per animal, most don’t accept multiple animals, or will do dogs or cats, but not both, and some are even requiring you be vaxx’d to rent.
What used to rent for $850-900 now goes for $2,000+ per month and that is for the small shacks. Apartments are out of control as well. I have a friend that lives in an apartment and they are jacking up her rent by $300 a month. She can’t afford that, and there is no where else cheaper to move.
Even the people that have the job of housing illegals are complaining how there is a shortage of rentals and the prices. Local paper did a story of 51 evictions for court hearings, the highest they have ever seen. 51 more families out looking for a place to live they can’t afford. It is a mess.
I waited until I have a 20% downpayment so I didn’t get robbed with PMI. That meant a few more years of saving and renting than I liked, but it was worth it. (I bought in 2018.)
I don’t know if this still holds true anymore, but I’m sure others on this thread can give you more insight….
Forgot to add: I waited until I had 30% down ($100K, with $50K coming from the sale of my home a few years earlier). It was just something I had to do for my own peace of mind.
It was just single me doing the saving, so I presume with two people saving it may go quicker if both are committed to sacrifice….
I did that too to avoid BMI – way back in 1989, for my first house.
I also paid off a 30-yr mortgage in 19 years by that simple trick of paying an extra chunk to the principal at every single payment.
My current house was bought close to the bottom of a market instead of the top, so it was low price. The first house I was selling, however, was so much larger (this is my retirement house) that with saving over all the intervening years, I managed to buy this one for cash.
The blue area is starting to kill me with real estate taxes, though. Always somethin!
Buy foreclosures from those who used their stimulus check to buy a house they could not afford.
As the economy continues to struggle under higher prices and supply chain issues, won’t that provide an excuse to not raise rates come March (don’t want to raise rates into a visibly slowing economy)?
It seems like the Fed has been doing a lot of thinking about what to do, and a lot of talking about what they are going to do, but not a lot of actual doing. And if they do raise rates once or twice, won’t that cause such a poor reaction in the markets that the Fed will be forced to stop and/or pull back?
We’re overdue for a good correction / recession. When this happens, the Fed Reserve wants to be able to lower interest rates and flood the banks with cheap monies to loan out to companies. Companies will grab this money and invest it into their businesses to increase products or to build up company locations to provide a service to more areas. This causes the economy (main street) to roar forward and start growing once again. Wall Street (the market) takes off once again.
If we don’t increase the interest rate while having a hot economy (inflation starts to grow) then we are not at a level to lower it when the economy cools off. Fed Reserve is in a hell of a quandary. The economy has cooled off and we are around zero interest rate already. How do we kick start the economy then? The Dems want to print more money and hand it out under their Build Back Broke Program. This will flood the economy with more cash but will not increase the GDP for real growth. Why? Because their programs are either social welfare programs or new programs built on creative ideas for sustainable living, like wind mills for energy, which currently has no infrastructure so it would take years to get any economic growth out of them.
FYI. California invested $500 million dollars into a wind mill project and the company folded without ever producing any productive wind mills. Did we get our money back? Nah….
Been beekeeping for two years now. It’s a lot of work but worth the effort. Still haven’t broke even but if I split my colonies this year and they all do well honey wise then I should break even in Year 3. If you’re serious about beekeeping then I would suggest the first thing you do is join your local beekeeping club.
Thank you for such a worthwhile endeavor.
Beware of robber bees – they can strip you clean before you even realize what’s going on.
Their hives can often be found in the alley behind your local Democratic Party headquarters.
Lol!!
In AR the UofA has an agricultural extension service that teaches a 9 hour course in beekeeping; I would think most states have something along those lines. Take the course. Also join the local beekeepers club, learn from those with decades of experience. We started about 10 years ago with 4 colonies, got up to 7 down to zero and back to 4 now.
A friend showed me this link on beekeeping just recently and I thought it was pretty interesting.
There is one in Texas but I don’t have any info on it, just heard about it from a friend.
http://www.texasbeekeepers.org
💪✝️💪
can someone please catch me up.
if inflation is UP and consumerism is DOWN.
why would the fed be raising interest rates…
This is what I do not understand. (did not go to ivy league school, but did stay at a cheap hotel last night.)
God Bless America
Traditionally, the cure for inflation is raising rates. Money is too cheap now. It’s practically free to borrow. We recently refi’d at 2.6%. Once money gets more expensive, it’s harder to get, which in theory should lower inflation.
but IS THE CAUSE of inflation, cheap money?
or is it from a real goods supply issue? (scarcity)
I told you, I don’t know nothing.
I’m just asking questions. I really have a hard time understanding how raising interest rates will help americans afford goods and services that are in low supply.
beg your pardon in advance. please continue. I really want to know.
In this case, it’s both. I think. I’m no expert. The theory is that if money is harder to get, each dollar will be worth more. Raising the interest rate makes it harder to get money. The more you have to pay back, the less likely you are to be approved for a loan.
We would have had inflation even if we hadn’t had supply issues due to all the cheap money that was floating around. The supply issues are exacerbating inflation.
agreed, I think it IS both.
but increasing prime rates will have a profound effect in borrowing…
so we can live a little easier with more “affordable” goods and services (maybe, I have doubts that will be the reality due to the supply crisis)..
but we end up in a situation where borrowing (credit) will become increasingly more unaffordable.
In sum, the main street is going to get hammered.
Last time it happened was in the Carter years. Stagflation they called it.
remember it very well.
living in germany at the time…little fellar…gas prices were astonomical..
but if you had US DOLLARS..boy howdy, you could really work some deals.
as I recall, it was verboten to drive on Sundays.
Broke my arm on a sunday and my dad actually pulled a gun on the politzei, who tried to stop him from getting me to the hospital. Fortunately my Dad was wearing his uniform, and at the time, that actually meant something…
It was one of those moments, and many that followed, when I realized who my Dad really was.
My hero..and inspiration.
Glad to hear you stayed out of the elements last night by crashing in a cheap hotel.
You stated the problem brilliantly, ivy league school or not.
Normally, when the economy heats up (inflation starts rising) consumerism is up and this incessant spending of money on goods and services is what causes the inflation to rise. More demand than the available goods or services.
But wait a minute! You said inflation is up and consumerism is down? Oh, oh….
What is causing inflation? The Dems dumping money into the economy via welfare programs and NGO’s supporting the non-working, so items being bought and used are not consumer goods but welfare support goods, such as: higher payouts on food stamps (implemented 2021) and more health care services.
When inflation rises the solution has always been to raise prime interest rates, this stops companies from borrowing money to produce more consumer goods and stops service companies from offering additional services so overall the prices increase for the consumer, which stops the consumer from buying and using and voila! the demand lowers and the costs become more competitive. The economy shows down. The Feds start to lower rates once again. 1/4 percent at a time.
Sooo, inflation is here, time to raise the prime interest rates, but there is no heated economy. Matter of fact, jobs are vacant, people are not working, raising interest rates will only increase food, utility, and rent costs above what people can pay. What to do?
Dems – why spend more money on welfare programs and on going green! Welfare programs to not add to the GDP to raise the economy and new job sectors need years of infrastructure building before they can provide consumer goods and add to our GDP. GDP = Gross Domestic Products = Consumer Goods.
Out on the road, it is obvious that the economy is in free fall. Since 01 December, we have been on the road for 31 nights, more than 10,000 miles, in all 4 continental time zones. The hotels are like tombs; business and contractor traffic is way off, and leisure travel (not unexpected at this time of the year) is close to non-existent. Restaurants continue to beg for help, and at peak hours (12-1, 6-7), seating has not been a problem. We would really like to see the quarterly balance sheets for Perkins and similar restaurant chains. Keep an eye out for reduced hours– this is the camel’s nose under the tent of the restaurant industry.
More people who habitually go to their restaurant are about to change their habit. Talked to a guy yesterday with 4-kids. He said, they are cooking more at home now.
This is us. A few years ago, we began eating out twice on weekends – Friday was date night with just my husband and me and the next night we’d bring any kids who wanted to come with us. To make up the increased cost of food, a few months ago we switched to once a week.
We have fast food restaurants in Central VA closing at 7 and 8 o’clock. Not all we still have 24 hour McDonalds and Starbucks but there are definitely some restaurants suffering.
We also have sit down restaurants that have cut Brunch and jus have lunch and dinner on the weekends.
I’m in Kansas and our local (non-chain) restaurants have closed for dinner. I’m guessing they can’t find people to work nights?
Anyone who thinks the FED will stop printing is delusional. They “create” dollars and loan them out and collect interest. By summer the masses will be crying for another round of stimmy checks. Midterms + pending collapse of market = Printnado
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-about-drain-trillions-cash-heres-how-it-will-do-it
Check out this article, it has an interesting take. Though I’m no economist or banking expert.
Fubar, snafu, quagmire all created courtesy of our government. Can’t wait to see what they do to fix it, wait I meant make it worse.
Power company informed me that natural gas prices have doubled and that’s why my utility bill was astronomical. I had sticker shock when I opened that envelope. FUBAR is right, Sundance.
I am anxiously awaiting my electric bill for January, we are living with heater temp around 65 average, bundled up with thermal and blankets trying to keep cost down any way we can.
I plan on buying my neighborhood in 3 years. Then, putting up a surrounding wall with really nice watch towers.
Don’t skimp on the spotlights. People always skimp on the spotlights.
Alligators too.
With lasers?
Si!
They’re doing to us what they did to Venezuela and a large chunk of the population is too stupid to see it.
The mainstream media and financial pundits are under the illusion that the economic contraction (which has already started) will bring down inflation. They are in for a surprise.
Renegotiation of contracts will give inflation momentum. Employees who have been seeing the buying power of their wages go down will demand higher wages in their new contracts. Sellers who have been stuck supplying at prices fixed by contracts despite higher prices in the spot markets will demand higher prices in their new contracts.
The higher wages and higher prices in the new contracts will continue to raise business costs. So businesses will sell less at higher prices. The misery index (unemployment rate plus inflation rate) will climb. Once started, inflation gets momentum which keeps it going. It is easy to get it started, but not so easy end it.
Watch the Chamber of Commerce and other groups clamor to double down for more immigration to suppress wage growth.
This is true, but it only goes so far. I think we are seeing a real net loss in highly skilled positions that a 3rd worlder just cant replace. Even my job, which isn’t intellectually demanding, struggles to get people that just have basic Office/Windows proficiency. I can forgive older workers that never quite made the leap, but the mid-career folks don’t have much of an excuse.
I sometimes wonder if we aren’t all under a mass psychosis that the country is smarter than it really is, particularly the leadership.
I will say I went back to school as I saw the writing on the wall for IT.
Overworked and paid peanuts and can expect to permanently lose my job to a H1-b visa, if I were to be laid off with no future prospects of being rehired when was in my 40’s.
The failed illegitimate administration, is responsible for the equally failed economy. Every key position in this administration, has unqualified imbeciles, making believe they can run the country.
They are typical Libtards lacking; Rationale, Judgment, Commonsense. There is absolutely nothing good comes out of that.
If the cost of oil and gas go up because Biden has cut production and eliminated the pipelines that transport oil and gas the resulting higher prices food and other commodities is not the result of inflation. It’s the result of a supply and demand imbalance because the production of oil and gas was kneecapped!
Its not an “either/or” its both.
Reducing oil, while simultaneously dumping biden bucks is a double whammy, feeding inflation.
Currency follows the same rules of supply and demand as anything else; the more of it their is, the less each one is worth, whether its dollars or donuts.
True, but that doesn’t account for the shortages of food. People aren’t buying more food there’s less food items being produced and shipped!
Or in other words, inflation is only a monetary supply issue. I agree that the energy policy has created supply side price increases that are… fortifying?… the inflation. I really dislike that even some Conservative Inc. lump it all together. Energy is specifically Biden’s fault.
The destruction coming out of Imperial City DC has gotten even more peculiar this last year; it is so convincing, that when it strikes a thing it doesn’t leave enough of that thing left for you to tell … … well … … you would think it had once been something valuable and Joe Biden had been there.
Former Hot Air reader, after following Morrisey from Captain’s Quarters, came to have a peek five years ago after a link from Ace of Spades HQ. Told myself I’d keep looking in until the predictions proved wrong, still here everyday! My wife keeps on saying, ‘you know that thing you were talking about months ago, well blah, blah (insert any MSM outlet) is reporting it now. Or, ‘you were right, blah, blah’s (insert any political event in US) happened, I don’t take all the credit of course! She got very angry at a Daily Telegraph article, entitled
The truth about Joe Biden can no longer be ignored (telegraph.co.uk) Behind paywall but the title gives the spin away
Thanks to Sundance, she’s also had her eyes opened to the mockservatives in this country after hearing me talk about Rinos, (‘why are you talking about animals all the time!’)
Have recommended this site to a number of people Stateside and they all comment how prescient the analysis and commentary are. One family in particular now have their shed brimming with all sorts of food stuffs and a son active in the anti-vax mandate campaign. So, definitely pebble, ripples syndrome over the pond in this household.
The Telegraph used to be an outstanding newspaper. I read it every day when I lived overseas and couldn’t wait to get my hands on the Sunday edition, especially when it was under the auspices of Lord Black, who was imprisoned by and in this country under suspicious circumstances which, as we now know, seem to represent how we’ve operated for decades. President Trump pardoned him, and he now writes articles for American Greatness.
The Telegraph hates/hated President Trump and abandoned ethical journalism long ago. Their journalistic standards sank to unimaginable levels. So I hope that in seeing the corrupt thug who now squats in the WH they have regained their senses.
Here comes that tedious overused phrase… time will tell.
“I read ___on the Treehouse” and “Sundance posted ___” are phrases used daily in our house. I have so much love and respect for everyone involved with CTH. I can’t begin to tell you how much I’ve learned from reading here. I appreciate the insights, the comedy, the patriotism. Sometimes this is the only place I can vent and feel supported. The wealth of knowledge here boggles my mind. I give thanks every day for my little branch. My husband laughs his head off. He’s said “my wife mentioned that 2 wks ago” a thousand times. The truth lives here. CTH is a blessing.
hang on this is just the Build Back Better program.. break it till it’s shattered then build a new Glowbull society over the ruins…
Yes, it is difficult to get a grip what is happening is what they want to happen. What the normal person sees as disaster. They see as victory.
To ptevent a Global meltdown of the financial system in 2008, 14 YEARS ago, Central banks across the Globe initiated ‘quatitative easing’, essentially buying up debt.
FOURTEEN YEARS AGO….
And yet, as the economy “stabilised”, and stock prices went up, home prices went up, and jobs recovered, they have continued this “quantitative easing” AND measures to keep interest rates artificially low.
NOW, they are finally going to cautiously raise interest rates, AT THIS TIME!
WHY? Because the measures they took, on an emergency basis, only prevented a Global collapse of the financial system, but did not “cure” the underlieng ultimately fatal disease which is central bank control.
Its like putting a cast on a broken leg, where the bone is so shattered it can NEVER heal or again support body weight (function).
Eventually, you have to face reality, and take off the cast, and amputate the leg.
Except the Global Financial system is INTEGRAL to the functioning of civilisation, and the geniuses in Zurich who got us all into this mess, have no viable way to get us out.
Jimmy Carter popped into my mind for some reason. Perhaps because he also presided over economic stagflation like we are seeing and was also partial to leftist thinking in general and susceptible to a brain trust much like the one that destroyed the nation for a decade under another feeble minded leftist traveling down the same path as the Soviet Union at the time and the same path so many despotic rulers have taken their nations over the last century alone.
I remember when Jimmy Carter was elected. I was stationed at Andrews AFB, (as it was known then), assigned to a special Presidential Security Detail, in the USAF. I had been stationed there since returning from Viet Nam and was on a controlled tour. The Carter Administration was so much different than the Ford and Nixon Administrations were as far as my duties went as pertained to this detail. Not to mention the inflation aspect for an NCO in the military. Trying to get fuel for your car off base was a pain, with the odd/even registration plate mandate in effect.
We were there also. Bolling AFB. Presidential Honor Guard USAF. Remember the struggles well.
Omgosh that’s crazy! My dad did the very same thing, retired in ’72, having been stationed there after Nam.
We continued to live there till ’76 when we finally moved back home to Texas. Home prices were insane, as were MD/VA taxes. I don’t know how anyone survived there during the Carter years.
We watched an old document on the Iran hostage situation a few nights ago and the similarities were eye opening. I was in high school when it happened and know the history well, but the Jimmy Carter clips really showed them.
Sundance, someone in the UK must be lurking in the Treehouse!
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/beware-the-covid-turncoats-crawling-out-of-the-woodwork/
James Delingpole writes also for Breitbart. He’s an outstanding writer.
Been a Delingpole fan for years. He’s written some of the best-ever witty ridicule of the “climate change” nonsense.
And I agree with Deplorable & P – James sounds just as steamed as sundance did at the recent Bari W (Who? I had never heard of her before) appearance on Bill Maher’s show…
The Fed did not announce a March rate hike.
The FED gave a green light to higher inflation today. Powell the FED chairman sounded as unsteady as the installed puppet. Government has purposely failed across the board. No one could accidentally be this stupid.
It’s just the Fed talking tough!
Talking smack…
Kid Rock’s new song is driving the commie dems and media crazy. Crank it up!
WOW, GREAT.
The opening line makes it pretty clear there is a language warning, for those subject to flutters, hearing honest language.
“We the People reserve the right to say,……F*CK YOU!” and it just gets better, from there.
With a chorus of Lets go Brandon, what’s not to like 😉
My new fav song — no wait, my new fav song possibly EVER!!!
But FJB met with CEOs to discuss build back bolshevik so you know he’s got this being the smart compassionate lifelong unifying influence he is. Right?
Witches brew to destroy a country. Start with an accidentally leaked virus.
Our homeowner’s insurance went up 40% for our annual renewal.
But no mean tweets.
Mine went up just over 25%
My Eversource (electric) bill up 50%, here on CC, MA. Rates up 2022.
People are going to be shocked and cash strapped by mid Feb.
Not to mention that COVID, is only 1 of 4 variations of corona going around, as told to me by NP at Hospital clinic. It’s SLAMMING MA, hard.
Let’s pray for each other as we test positive.
There is a Biden Variant going around everywhere,
it will leave you with very Very EMPTY Pockets….. watch out.
Thanks PedoJoe46.
👊👊🙏🏻🙏🏻
What do I think is about to happen?
Sundance if I knew that I would know what to do. Could you please tell me straight out as I am not to smart. I honestly do not know what to do.
First practically, I am retired on social security with my largest asset my house, which I bought two years ago at a great price, worked on it and put money into it. Planned on selling it sometime after next summer (maybe 18 months) for a pretty good tax free gain. Even if possible, then what? Sure I would downsize but it almost seems as if the smaller cheaper homes are comparatively priced highest because of demand. Back of my mind is what goes up must come down so is deflation coming world wide after inflation?
Second spiritually and I do not mean that in terms of God, I mean being beaten into submission. I have not given up. At the local level I am fighting the good fight and occasionally winning a battle here and there. But the war? Evil has clearly showed itself and not a single institution stands in it’s way. From Government at all levels to religion at the highest levels (think the heretic Francis of the Roman Catholic Church) the war seems lost.
So what I am doing is living each day as best a day as I can, enjoying and savoring every single little pleasure as if it might be my last, as happy as I can, with kindness and forgiveness, a smile on my face hiding the tear in my eye and praying, but all the while knowing God does not directly intervene in the matters of man, even when his own son is being crucified. Hope, for this world is long gone. Any belief that this will ever get back to an acceptable normal no longer exists. I have decided that when the time comes I will be killed (NOT KILL) as a patriot because I will never get on my knees and as a faithful servant I will not turn my back on God.
How we got here really does not matter. There is no longer a win, at least not on this earth. I am not saying do not try or give up. We are still humans and that is what we do. But honestly the spirit can be broken. Each of us is alone, without a leader and without a plan. Yes evil has already won, there is not even any organized resistance. Even as people like you so heroically and accurately show us reality, our faces are being rubbed in it, resistance is futile. Maybe the masses have the answer. Perhaps ignorance is bliss.
Is there any way you can rent a room in your house to a retiree for the extra income?
Think I’ll go with option A on that whole kill or be killed thing MiN. May not reclaim the “Wonder Years” but will do a lot better than our rat bastard “Betters” have planned. Forgive the dead, the rest have consequences to face.
A friend of mine got into bees and joined the beekeeper’s association. He became friends with the president of the beekeeper’s association whose wife happened to be named Honey.
One day back in the days of landlines my friend called the president and his wife answered. Just as my friend’s wife entered the room he said into the phone, “Hi, Honey, is your husband home?”
True story.
😂😂😂 very good story. Thanks for a bright spot of information.
Simple things are costing ridiculous amounts of money. I went ahead and bit the bullet, purchasing 20lbs of food grade citric acid – I use it in a lot of home applications. I have a whole house water filtration system that relies on chlorine as part of its way of handling the well water. I’ve been searching out industrial grade chlorine that is cheaper than “Clorox” – hard to find. I’m not even going to bother trying to buy fertilizer for the garden and have contacted a local rancher who can provide aged manure and even plow it in for me. Every little thing I go to buy is up several dollars a piece and some things have doubled, tripled, quadrupled in price. So, I’ve been making a “make do” list, repurposing, recycling, and tightening the belt very tight, shopping the thrift stores, etc. I did not do my usual Christmas shopping this year because I realized that tightening the belt was a matter of survival. Most Americans can see the handwriting on the wall.
We really need to End the Fed. And while we’re at it, we need to end our government and start over from scratch.
2 weeks ago green cabbage at the store was $1.39 a pound and red was $.99. Today green cabbage was $1.59 a pound and red was $1.79
Powell sounded unsteady and weak and his prepared statement sounded like it came directly from the Regime. He does not “Talk the Talk” let alone “Walk the Walk.” Don’t be surprised when nothing happens at the March meeting.
2005- UNDP Resident Representative noted that Sri Lanka was in a critical stage of the transition and as relief operations decrease, the emphasis should shift to “BUILD BACK BETTER” which meant not just better houses than before, but communities better prepared to deal with vulnerabilities.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/05COLOMBO934_a.html
2010-Special Envoy Clinton agreed to assume a leadership role over international assistance efforts in addition to mobilizing the private sector, civil society and international donors to “BUILD BACK BETTER.” The UN and Special Envoy Clinton will hold an additional flash appeal on February 17.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/10USUNNEWYORK71_a.html
From: Hillary Clinton To: Lissa Muscatine Date: 2010-01-17 14:31 Subject: HAITI – CHILD TRAFFICKING
This is just the beginning of what will be a comprehensive five-year effort to BUILD BACK BETTER in Haiti.
https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/690
If you watch Part 2 on
plandemicseries.com
David E. Martin does a great little montage of all the times the left tried to sell that vapid and easy-to-ridicule piece of sloganeering – went back a few decades I think…
The rest of the documentary is great too.
(My favorite variation is Build Back Bankrupt.)
My home is gas heated, live in a frigid state.
My December bill, adjusted for therms, number of days, etc., was up 66% from last December.
November’s bill was 56% higher than last.
I’m retired, VERY fixed income; I’M DROWNING!
I’ve been keeping bees since I was 11,now 68! Yes honey has hit the roof. However, it is still worth every penny. Helps keep you healthy and is good for many other uses. I don’t keep bees to sell honey tho…..it’s more cause I like GOD’s little creatures. You SHOULD get your own bees….nothing grounds ya like Nature!
We have been into beekeeping for the last seven years. In addition to the honey, our rather large vegetable garden has been more productive since we brought in the bees. We keep between three and five active hive towers with three or sometimes four boxes in a tower. Candy boards and insulation covers are added during the winter.
My wife and I both have full body beekeeping coveralls and hoods which we use whenever the hives must be opened for maintenance. Mites are problem just like everywhere else. When we treat the hives with oxalic acid once or sometimes twice a year, I wear a full face chemical respirator underneath my hood. I have only one pair of lungs and I prefer to keep them in good shape.
The hives are kept in a shaded area next to my shop within thirty feet or so of where I do most of my outdoor project fabrication work. For whatever reason, bees and wasps don’t seem to have a taste for me. In the hottest part of the summer, some of them will land on my arms to take a drink of my sweat. I ignore them and soon enough they are on their way.
I’ve been stung only once in the last three years. That was when a bee landed on my arm to take a drink, I didn’t notice it was there, and it got squished unintentionally.
The FED is looking at increasing interest rates as well.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/inflation-fighting-fed-likely-flag-march-interest-rate-hike-2022-01-26/
I have been on quarterly webinar briefs by Schwab, Vanguard and Fidelity. The briefers are portfolio management VP’s and they all stated Markets have already baked in a 2-3% increase by the Fed over the next 12-18 months.
Looking like doesn’t matter what you make, it is looking like there are a lot of things you won’t be able to buy.
Worse part is, it will be all of the people that have already been getting screwed by all the screwy mandates in very liberal control states.
The US dollar is going to fail as a reserve currency, therefore, there will be an urgent need for centrally controlled digital currency. We will have martial law in time for the “election”.
This has to happen for the transition to the single global digital cyber currency by 2024-25.
The US Treasury and FED Banks are already adopting digital currency and major US Financial Investing Companies have company sponsored BITCOINS on foreign exchanges that trade in DOLLARS and Foreign Currencies. Those coins are not yet offered inside the US due to very murky statements by the US Government, which makes it still too high a risk FOR NOW.
It is a very big deal that Major Financial Investing Companies are using BITCOINs and have their own BITCOINS.
The top 6 Investing Companies (Scwab, Black Rock, Vanguard, Fidelity, State Street Global and JPMorgan) control the investments in GDP Generating assets equal to the combined NATIONAL GDP’s of the US, EU, China and Japan or the 75-80% of the world’s GDP.
Think how easy it would be to convert to BITCOIN-Cyber Currency as the “exchange currency”.