Things that seem disconnected but aren’t. The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins show signs of vulnerability. This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.
In the previous October, November and December warnings we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window. Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up and the larger public is starting to notice. [NOTE: We nailed the timeline almost to the week]
Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area. Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.
Initial food instability signs in the supply chain. Things to look for:
(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).
And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.
(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).
(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.
(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.
(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.
(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)
(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.
(8) Absence of large container products
(9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)
(10) Big brand shortage.
(11) Shortage of wet pet foods
(12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc)
(13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries.
These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain. Once these issues are consistently visible, we are going to descend into food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.
At first, each retail operation will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
♦ BACKGROUND – Do you remember, the dairy farmers in 2020 dumping their milk because the commercial side of milk demand (schools, restaurants, bag milk purchasers) was forcibly locked down? Plastic jugs were in short supply, and the processing side of the equation has a limited amount of operational capacity.
Potato farmers and fresh food suppliers were also told to dump, blade or plough-over their crops due to lack of commercial side demand. These issues have longer term consequences than many would understand. These are fresh crops, replenishment crops, which require time before harvest and production.
The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality. As Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted in 2020, “There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products.”
Here is a snapshot of the food we had in storage at the end of February 2020: over 302 million pounds of frozen butter; 1.36 billion pounds of frozen cheese; 925 million pounds of frozen chicken; over 1 billion pounds of frozen fruit; nearly 2.04 billion pounds of frozen vegetables; 491 million pounds of frozen beef; and nearly 662 million pounds of frozen pork.
This bulk food storage is how the total U.S. consumer food supply ensures consistent availability even with weather impacts. As a nation, we essentially stay one harvest ahead of demand by storing it and smoothing out any peak/valley shortfalls. There are a total of 175,642 commercial facilities involved in this supply chain across the country
The stored food supply is the originating resource for food manufacturers who process the ingredients into a variety of branded food products and distribute to your local supermarket. That bulk stored food, and the subsequent supply chain, is entirely separate from the fresh food supply chain used by restaurants, hotels, cafeterias etc.
Look carefully at the graphic. See the fork in the supply chain that separates “food at home (40%)” from “food away from home (60%)”?
Food ‘outside the home’ includes restaurants, fast food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more. Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 60 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.
The ‘food away from home‘ sector has its own supply chain. Very few restaurants and venues (cited above) purchase food products from retail grocery outlets. As a result of the coronavirus mitigation effort, the ‘food away from home’ sector was reduced by 75% of daily food delivery operations. However, people still needed to eat. That meant retail food outlets, grocers, saw sales increases of 25 to 50 percent, depending on the area.
Covid regulations destroyed this complex supply chain in 2020. It takes time to recover because the replenishment is based on harvest cycles. This stuff must be grown.
When the food at home sector was forced to take on the majority of food delivery, they immediately hit processing constraints. The processing side of the supply chain to funnel food into suppliers for the grocery store has “x” amount of capacity. That system cannot (not feasible) and did not expand to meet the 20 to 50% increase in demand.
Think about potatoes. A potato farmer sells into one of the two paths “food at home” (retail stores, or a processing supplier) or “food away from home” (commercial food or commercial food processors). Other than bulk raw potatoes, the harvest goes into: (1) processing or (2) storage.
(1a) processing for retail sales (40%), ex. Ore Ida frozen potatoes, canning, or any of the other thousand retail products that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
(1b) processing for commercial sales (60%), ex. McDonalds french fries, or any of the thousand restaurant, lunchroom and cafeteria needs that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
♦ Processing – When 1b was shut down in 2020, 1a quickly reached maximum retail processing capacity. Massive multi-million machines and food processing systems have a capacity. The supplies they use also have a capacity: plastic bags, cardboard, trays, bowls, etc. The 1a processing system can only generate “X” amount of retail product at maximum capacity.
The remaining 1b commercial product was shut down. A massive percentage of 1b (commercial) potatoes have nowhere to go, except waste.
♦ Storage – Each processor in 1a stores product (deep cold or frozen storage) for 365-day processing and distribution. Those storage facilities have a limited amount of capacity. The 1b customers need fresh product for the majority of their outlets. Ergo storing for 1b customers who might eventually be allowed to open later only works for a short period of time. The fresh potato sales missed by 1b outlets = the 1b discard by potato farmers.
When you restart 1b suddenly the 1b short-term (fresh) storage product is quickly depleted. Refilling that 2020 storage is dependent on a new 2021 harvest, which simultaneously has a greater immediate demand because the supply chain on the processing side was boxcar’d (over capacity) and then reset to a higher capacity playing catchup.
The amount missing from 2021 storage, because it was used instead of saved, is essentially equal to the amount that was wasted in 2020.
Now you end 2021 will less reserves because storage is depleted, because a greater percentage of the current harvest was immediately used. You enter into the beginning of 2022 (winter) in a race to try and spread out the stored potatoes as you cross your fingers and race against the clock for the next harvest before running out.
You probably noticed – but attached to this issue is yet another motive to keep people (employees) away from large industrial cafeterias and even students from school lunchrooms. The total food supply chain needs time, and harvests, to catch up.
In the example above you can replace *potato* with just about any row crop or retail/commercial food commodity like milk.
The reason I list the shortage of potatoes as the #1 precursor is because every food outlet sells a potato in some form. Every supermarket and every single restaurant (fancy, sit down or fast food) sells some form of potato. Potatoes are demanded by every single food outlet; therefore, a shortage of potatoes is the first noticeable issue.
The 2020 demand disruption problem now becomes a 2021/2022 supply chain problem on both the fresh and processing side (depleted inventories), with each vector now competing for the same raw material: wheat, soybeans, grains, beans and stored row crops.
Making matters worse, the protein suppliers also need grain as feed for cattle, pigs, cows, chickens, etc.
[Note: who gets the short straw? The pet food manufacturers]
That’s the nub of the background supply chain issue in the food sector. Additionally, recovery is not a single-issue problem.
The recovery price and shortages relate to everything from current oil and gas prices to diesel engine oil prices, to fertilizer and weed killer costs, to plastic costs and petroleum packing shortages (Styrofoam especially), to cardboard and sustainable packaging costs, to energy costs and transportation/delivery costs. All along this complex supply chain there’s also workers and higher payroll costs.
Thus, we get the double-edged sword of higher prices (inflation) and simultaneous shortages.
Here’s what you can do to offset grocery store shortages (while possible):
(1) Buy the generic or store brand equivalent (sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(2) Purchase the organic version (another sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(3) Purchase the powered/dehydrated version (potatoes, milk, etc) and experiment (jazz it up).
Each retail operation, or chain of stores, will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
This is where field to fork supplier relationships can make a big difference. However, every outlet regardless of their operational excellence, is going to have significant shortages in their inventory. It’s an unavoidable outcome of the previous chaos.
On average the retail shortages will last for about as long as one full harvest schedule (4 to 6 months) depending on the commodity. By September of 2022 the various sector should be relatively recovered.
However, government intervention could make the issues worse, or the recovery time take longer, depending on how they respond when people get seriously stressed in a few weeks. The densely populated urban areas are going to be making a lot of noise and demanding the government fix the crisis.
Final note on INFLATION – The short-term prices will go up again, another 10, 20 up to 50% should be expected depending on the item. Those prices will eventually level off, but it’s doubtful they will be able to come back down until supply and demand find some equilibrium again, if ever. Right now, predicting future retail prices is too far off to even fathom.
I hope this outline provides you with information to help you make decisions for your family.
Here we go!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/08/potato-shortage-french-fries-japan-kenya-south-africa-pandemic-supply-chains/
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2022/jan/09/potato-shortage-cutting-into-fries-chips/
Right on Cue! Amazing coordination / synchronization!!
Re organic and non organic prices nearly the same: We buy Costco’s regular frozen blue berries which are usually quite a bit less than the organic. Few weeks ago the price was just a couple of pennies different per lb..
Absolutely spot-on Sundance. Other conservative sites are starting to post some serious warnings about shortages…of course, all intentional.
Here is a site which contains many of the “prepper’ and survival sites all in one place… there is also important tips for OPSEC in quite a few of them.
https://www.topprepperwebsites.com/
In SE Penna., outside of Philthadelphia, many shelves are half-empty of basics (pasta, rice, beans, canned fruits and veggies). ANYTHING other than regular milk has been missing for awhile (cream, creamers)
Prices are climbing and will continue to do so…I don’t believe there is an end in sight. The 535 members of CONgress are allowing this to happen…I put the blame on them. They can do something about it if they want however…crickets.
WE can do something about it if we want however… crickets.
Evidently the suffering so far is mildly annoying, enough to complain but not enough to take serious action. No complaints here. Learned a lot from those who survived the Depression. We’ve yet to really suffer.
Nice to see Treepers coming together with ground reports, tricks and tips. Great resource 🙂
2nd Amendment…anyone?
The Epoch Times also has been publishing on food supply issues and prices over the last few months. Go to theepochtimes.com and search on “cream cheese shortage.” ET and Sundance both have been warning us.
Why would you want CONgress to do something? They already do too much and none of it is good. Let the supply chain have its time and work itself out. The less the pols do, the better.
“The 535 members of CONgress are allowing this to happen…I put the blame on them. They can do something about it if they want however…crickets.”
You sure you want the gubmint to “do something”? Has the gubmint ever done anything that helped? ANYTHING?
We avoid woke corporations.
Just had my daughter buy 3 months supply of food for her cat. She eats a prescription recipe that ran out last time.
Plus 3 months of regular food for in between Rx feeding
Thanks for heads up Sundance
Exactly what I just did.
Yeah, cat food is interesting. However, cats are natural hunters. I kinda chuckled reading, last time I ran short the cat ended up getting the meat out of canned raviolis as her wet food for a few days. Gotta sacrifice for the cat. She got some of my canned tuna supply as well. I survived. Life throws curves, we adapt.
My daughter’s cat ‘ran away’ last year. She was gone for 3 months. A “lost cat” sign inspired a neighbor 1/2 mile away to call my daughter. Yep. It was her cat — much skinnier but just fine after a few months in the “wilds” of suburbia.
I live in Canada and I’ve noticed a pattern. Certain products will go on sale
here several weeks before I read a new story about shortages of that same product in the states. About a month ago I bought Frozen potatoes for what I thought was a great price. Previously it was frozen chicken. It’s almost as if they’re creating these food shortages on purpose. Or they’re playing some currency arbitrage that’s causing the shortages.
It might be an issue with shipping. Also, the port flooding in BC cut off agricultural exports that usually go through that port complex.
I worked in the Natural/Organic/Specialty channel of grocery for almost 30 years. Both in retail and distribution. In the states sales and promotions are set up months in advance as to when the promotions are instituted at store level. One recent change has been a limit on the amount, per sku, that is allotted for promotional sale.
SWFL Publix. No cream cheese, almost no half and half, little Gatorade, very few ice cream bars. Meat supply better than a few weeks ago. Most prices climbing rapidly.
Haven’t seen these things in 4 different grocery stores in two states. Much better stock for Christmas cooking and baking than last year. Bins of potatoes, numerous milk variations in all places visited.
We are in central Tx(having fled this last year from SoCal.) Cost of living here is so much less than Ca that even with things increasing we are still better off budget wise. Have also been preppers for a decade so have all the paper goods/staples well stocked already. With that said, HEB is the main(only) supermarket in our area. Prices have been going up regularly the last couple of months. But now we are starting to see outages of various items and a lot of empty shelves. Talked to one of the workers and he told us the trucks just aren’t coming in like they should.
In Dripping Springs, already seeing bare shelves the last three weeks for meat, frozen potatoes, pasta and folks are driving into Austin proper to do their shopping for such things and finding a lot of those items are in short supply there too so many are shopping early in the mornings to improve their chances hoping that the shelves were stocked early that morning or the night before.
My HEB (SW Austin) has been out of bag salad the last few weeks. The stock guy told me that warehouse/prep folks are all out with Covid.
I’m on the north side of San Antonio. We shop at a small H-E-B, maybe about a tenth of the size the superstores. Yesterday, they were out of almost every brand of wet cat food. They had storages of several generic foods – flour, pasta, bread, and processed snack foods. They were almost out of toilet paper. The cheap wine that we drink increased from $5 to $7 a bottle. Fresh produce and meat were well stocked, but still at higher prices. The grocery bill is consistently about 1.5X-2X the bill two years ago.
I also noticed that tacos at one of the local chains had increased in price by about 25%.
I was surprised a couple of days ago when I walked out of the HEB without dropping a hundred bucks, but I bought just a few things.
Last week I stopped by Ali Baba’s in San Antonio. Normally, they have a wide variety of imported Feta cheese. For a first time ever the cheese refrigerators were empty.
Wow
Is Muriel Bowser going to request the National Guard.
Burning down businesses should help fill those shelves. /sarc
The same an hour to the east.
And to the west — Centreville, VA
Remember we just had a nasty ice/snow storm, many people in the Commonwealth and NOVA are still w/out power. Most stores had to throw out their milk, dairy, frozen due to the power being out. Every store I went into yesterday cold section looked like that. Lots of truckers were stuck for a day and a half on the highway. And people have been buying because of the snow. I do expect once stores are restocked prices will sky rocket again to make up for the loss this past week.
W/that said there is still a shortage of things in the stores pre-storm, some stores try to shift things around so they don’t look so empty, and other stores just let the shelves sit empty. I like the mini-street tacos, my Food Lion had a ton of them expired sitting on the shelf. It is a shame they weren’t paying closer attention to do a sale on them. Stuff like that drives me crazy, such a waste.
Eggs, milk are staying pretty much normal price, meat is the big one. On Tuesday my FL will reduce the meat to clear out for the new sale that starts on Wed. That is when I go in to buy meat, I have gotten some great deals. Thankfully I am not a picky eater and happy to buy whatever. I feel so blessed that I did not lose my freezer foods, just the stuff in the refrigerator, which was still a hit, I had just stocked up and now it is all gone, but I have my meat! I had just made a killer pot of vegetable beef soup, got to eat one bowl of it, and it had to go to the trash.
So many people lost all their cold food and will have to replenish everything, w/the current prices on many items it will hit the pocketbook deeply. The only good part about this storm is that Blackface is hearing from some angry people. I still think he did it on purpose as an F/U to Virginians.
The cities are going to be hurting very bad, very soon. Prayers for everyone!
Is that a result of the freezing rain warning that was posted?
I guess they have a true food desert there now.
Yikes.
They are being hit with Omicron. A lot of triple jabbed people are getting it and being pretty sick.
What is odd is that the unvaxed I know are actually less sick… duh.
Northeast, approximately 35 mi west of Cape Cod.
Went shopping this am.
Our local Market Basket appears to be well stocked,with the exception of chicken.
I was at the store early so it’s possible the coolers weren’t stocked yet.
Noticed a slight rise in wheat crackers, now $3.00,
last week $2.79.
I was able to score 2 whole chickens at .88lb at the stop n shop up the street.
It should be noted the Market basket I usually shop at is employed by approximately 70% Guatemalan.
This area a generation ago was predominantly Portuguese.
An increase from 2.79 to 3.00, while pennies, is still a 7.5% increase.
If you want to hook up with local farm products, try this website. They specialize in online stores for farmers.
https://www.barn2door.com/buy-food
Some thoughts;
We all know by now “Never let a crises go to waste” REALLY means:
CREATE a crises, or the PUBLIC PERCEPTION of a crises, in order to justify a public policy change (Govenment action) that you want to enact.
And, typically do nothing to truly address the crises you created, as to do so would eliminate the justification for the government action you wanted all along.
Creating this supply chain debacle, as a DIRECT result of Government actions, WILL result in a ‘public outcry”, a DEMAND from consumers, that the Government, the FEDERAL Government specifically, MUST “DO SOMETHING!!”
Just as the initial demands to “DO SOMETHING” resulted in Brandon ordering the ports in Cal. to operate with longer hours, and the container ships to station farther out so they couldn’t be seen, i.e. nothing to truly address the problem,…
The government responce to this Government created crises will INEVITABLY be rationing, such as we have not seen since WW2.
In addition, there will be condemnation and criminal penalties for “Hording”, which WILL have ‘public support’, as the grasshoppers who haven’t “prepped” will be resentful of their ant neighbors, who have.
And, being “Horders” will be another “tag” added to the long list of pejoratives being heaped on US; Rascist, Insurrectionist, Anti-vaxxing HORDERS.
In fact, there will be those who will generate the false narrative that the WHOLE problem with supply chains, is BECAUSE of these “horders”; we already saw some of this, in the toilet paper shortage awhile back.
And, of coarse once the Government institutes rationing, IT decides WHERE material goes, AND WHO GETS IT and equally important, WHO DOESN’T.
So, to get your one loaf of bread and gallon of milk per week, you will have to show your vax passport, for you and your household, or “No hamburger for YOU!”, courtesy the “soup kitchen nazi” from seinfeld.
My household are currently ‘insulated’ from the mandates, by luck and lifestyle choices, we have not YET experienced ANY pressure to get the jab.
And, I suspect some millions of those who haven’t been jabbed, are in the same situation.
THIS WOULD put us directly in the crosshairs of coercion, and being forced to “comply or die” both by having our stores of food confiscated (and criminally charged with ‘hording’) AND by denying us the opportunity to purchase food, unless we comply.
I (and others here) have been pointing out that, once you have “stocked up”, the next equally vital task is to recognise you can ONLY stock up so much, and need to move towards SUSTAINABLE alternatives, i.e. ‘growing your own”.
It is hard to imagine (but ANYTHING IS possible) that in times if food shortages “victory gardens” as were common in WW2 America, will be outlawed.
As they have already stated, numerous times, in numerous ways, their strategy and intention is to “make ant-jabbers UNCOMFORTABLE, by degrees, knowing that as they continue to SQUEEZE, many will relent without the “need” to resort to overt police powers, like incarceration for refusing the jab.
Hence, I THINK the supply chain disruptions are a deliberately created crises, in order to justify increased Federal government POWER, in order to push the Covid passport, which is really a “Social credit score” system.
Its a rapid accelleration to totalitarian tyrranny, on a Global level, breathtaking to watch, with potentially devastating stakes.
Watch your 6!
I still have my mom’s ration stamps from the war. Back then, for many folks, rationing wasn’t so bad since they’d just emerged from the Great Depression where pickins were very very slim. Also, diet was very different. I grew up on the Depression diet, augmented with a garden and home canned and smoked goods. No complaints. Back then going to the then new ‘McDonalds’ or similar was a real treat.
Owning a business in industry for decades, I’m awash in supplies and raw materials and I’ve long been ready to go to war with the government so all that stuff is covered. The last couple years have been great preparation, ratcheting up the suffering to prepare for what is to come. War is hell.
I saw some the stuff like the shortages post-Communism when spending time in the FSU in the early 90’s. Broken countries. They survived. We will too. It’ll suck for awhile though. Strap in.
I appreciate your “thoughts – thank you 🙂
1 – Bible/God
2- Husband
3- Sundance
4- Pastor
5- Dutchman’s thoughts
Austin, TX and surrounding areas, potatoes already in short supply, frozen and fresh. HEB our regional (but very well respected) grocer already having supply chain and stocking issues on many items, particularly for stores in bedroom communities outside of Austin proper.
Just to get off this number
The far northeast part of the communist state of Washington here. Canned pet food is thin to none. Been stocking up on dry and canned foods for quite a while. Yesterday, bought 20lbs of extra lean ground beef. $5.99 a lbs. We’ll split that up into 1/2 lbs bags for freezing. Bought some beautiful top sirloin for $7.99. We’ll cut this and freeze it also. We grow most of our vegetables. Just ordered and received 6 months worth of dry dog food. Sad, lost my big male Doberman last week. He was 10+ but where we live a great protector. Still have a younger Dobe so plenty of food for her. Today headed in for the last of the freezer stock. Cheese, 1/2&1/2 etc. We should be ok for 6 months or until our next garden crop arrives.
Sorry you lost your dog. They are family members!
To be fair, Perp. Biden and his Globo/homo/Commies haven’t totally screwed up the Supply Chain with Joe’s Belt and Pants Initiative.
Illegal Immigration is at an all-time high. Human Trafficking is holding steady. The Fentanyl Supply is plentiful and growing. Military and corporate secrets are selling like hot takes on hotcakes. And Chinese bribes are coming in ahead of time and under budget. The shelves in DC are fully stocked with them.
And Big Pharma is meeting its commitments to return half of the obscene blood-money profits to the crooked politicians who made them po$$ible.
“To be fair”.
Went shopping yesterday. I took the opportunity at places where the shelves were bare to look at whoever was next to me and say the following. “This looks like the f****** Soviet Union. Biden is killing the country, I hope you didn’t vote for him.”
I went to a new doctor, an older gentlemen. Long story short, when our time was up, he looked right at me and said remember to vote the right way, elections have consequences. Once I got over my shock, I laughed, and told him he didn’t have to worry, I am a seasoned voter.
It is everywhere, people are finally making the connection. I went to numerous stores yesterday and every single store was full of people complaining about prices and shortages. One woman said “This isn’t America!”
Bodegas.
Small mom and pop shops.
Stop in and have a look-see. Never know what they might have.
Let’s just say their distribution network is ‘different’. 😉
Parallel economy. See it a lot in subsistence areas like where I live in Oregon. Winters are tough. People are tougher.
In Michigan, bodegas are called “party stores.” Seriously — for 50+ years. Beer, wine, snacks, but now some more variance.
In NorCal this AM shopping at Trader Joes… No whipped cream cheese but regular, but the cost of pork was double from Dec. CA passed a law with “humane” hocus pocus for pork…
Glad hubby got 2 deer this year. Freezer full.
Orange county California where there is a grocery store every half mile. Ralphs had 4 cartons of eggs left. I took a picture and sent it to my family. I wish I knew how to post it here.
OC is a pretty upscale area and historically conservative though that’s changed. My wife grew up there. Good folks. Thanks for the report.
To post pictures, I shoot them with my camera, then place them on my laptop and upload to Imgur and the post the links to the images as appropriate. Imgur is free and easy to use, essentially drag and drop. Great place to store stuff. There are other places too.
Joe Biden on Rising Car Prices:
“You Reduce the Demand for Cars by Making Americans Poorer”
Yep, it was really like that, even post-Communism. The young men would drool over the pictures of my diesel pickup. To me it was a work truck.
We walked everywhere or took the trolley/train. Had a lot of fun on trains. The toilets opened onto the tracks and whoa in January that cold rush of air up one’s bum was pretty shocking. IDK, I don’t think we’ll get that bad, Communism hit the FSU at the beginning of the industrial revolution so it stalled things for regular people.
I’ve noticed a lot of frozen and fresh turkeys. What does it mean that they’re the last line of protein? Myself, I’ve always considered turkey to be dried out, less tasty chicken.
Chicken, pork and beef all sell out first AND show market price increases fastest.
Turkey is the last line of defense for people who want to eat meat for protein. When you see turkeys on the shelves in January and February, it means they are not going to storage (per norm), and instead are being sold to: (1) fill space, and (2) give customers an option for meat. [aka last line of protein]
Thank you Sundance!
Turkey tends to be processed and flash frozen far in advance of use, like months to a year, and historically is pretty stable as a protein source. Often what is sold as ‘fresh’ is ‘previously frozen’, that’s very common. Part of my business was repairing equipment at the processing plants and husbandry units.
The trucks from the husbandry units would roll past my place on the way to slaughter and the flotsam from processing would go the other way out to the rendering plant. Interesting world, living in the middle of one of the largest ag areas in the world for decades. Very complex business.
Prepared properly, farmed turkey can be quite tasty and moist. It’s a moving target though. I’ve missed plenty of times.
I hope the so called Republicans in Congress run out of toilet paper first……………..
How would they know the difference?
the smell
No, its the same either way
point well taken……
Despite all the political disadvantages of living in central New York, we are incredibly blessed by being surrounded with small farms. We buy much of our food directly from them and have personal relationships with several. The Rochester based grocery chain we use also gets much of its produce from local farmers. We have a freezer full of meat and a deep pantry, so I am not very concerned about food. But wet cat food is in short supply, and that we need to stock up on. If vegetables become scarce, cabbage should still be available, and we’ll make do with that.
I just ordered canned cat food from Chewy.com, mostly because I wanted to order their vitamins, rx essentials for cats, so that I can make my own cat food and add the vitamins. It doesn’t seem that difficult. There are lots of recipes online. Basically start with meat, add potatoes or rice, a vegetable like broccoli, some oil and the vitamins. Coo k it all and put it in a good processor. I haven’t done it yet but plan to.
Just got back from Publix in Vilano Beach, looks like there is a run on toilet paper again. The only frozen potatoes were sweet potato fries. I normally choose organic products and Sundance is right the price difference is minimal now which I am happy about because my husband won’t complain about me spending more on organic.
I will say that at least 75% were masked up, very sad. We were at the Nocatee Park yesterday watching grandsons play football and there are some masked there even outdoors.
Consider looking at critical vitamin use i.e. C, D, etc and make certain you have an adequate supply. C is especially vital if fruits are in short supply.
Yes. I was in a local Vitamin Shoppe store and they were out of a lot of items. The store clerk told me they didn’t get half of what they were expecting.
One crisis (pandemic) begts another crisis (food supply/inflation). Dems are experts at not letting crisis go to waste and will act by printing more money exacerbating and creating another crisis (recession/depression), and the world goes round and round.
Oddly, in my small town of two supermarkets the most noticeable shortage that I purchase is plain saltine crackers. Lots of other types of flavored crackers but no saltines. I suppose because resturaunts use a lot of saltines. and it goes back to the harvest process and storage issue.
I’ve also had trouble buying saltines. My local BJs and two local supermarkets are out. But just this morning I was able to order two boxes online from BJs.
W/M this morning in Port Angeles WA. Got the last 2 1/2 gallons of milk. No fresh salads.Still lots of fresh. Food aisles up to 60% empty. Eggs about 60%+ empty. A little chicken, maybe 1/3 filled shelves. Organic beef maybe 20% filled, feed lot beef about 1/2. Spotty dairy. Stand alone coolers empty or barely covering the screened bottoms.
Not looking good. I’ve been prepping for about a year and a lot but…
Bottled water seems to be more scarce than usual here in SoCal, especially the larger sizes. Local branded dairy stuff like half & half and milk seem scarce. Not so much cheese though, which seems odd. Probably pre-packaged a while ago on the cheese.
Forgot to add that the onion’s we got yesterday at Costco in Boise area are from PERU.
CZ: Same with blueberries, rasberries, etc., in California. It’s counter-seasonal. In the winter, we get fresh fruits and vegetables from Central and South America.
Linked is an Updated from ALDI Australia CEO, Tom Daunt’s 1.8.2022 Statement distributed to their mailing list. It’s embedded via the link.
Below is Ice Age Farmer’s response.
[ Photo ]
Aldi getting desperate in Australia
Aldi Australia CEO just sent this to everyone on the Aldi mailing list, desperately trying to tell people to “rest assured, there isn’t a food shortage, just complications and delays associated with less employees”, as Australians walk around empty shelves.
Functionally it is the same thing – people can’t get food. It hasn’t been sent to us, or processed and packaged, or stacked on the shelves, or picked and harvested, or fertalized due to ongoing Adblue shortages in Australia or…
Meanwhile abbatoirs are shutting down due as asymptomatic workers are required to stay at home. Meat IS running short already.
The shortest supply chain is the one that starts and ends right in your own home! Grow your own.
#SupplyChain #Australia #WarOnMeat #FoodShortage
https://t.me/iceagefarmer/2473
I make my detergent stretch by using Borax. I use half the recommended amount of detergent and a scant 1/4 cup of Borax.
I will have to say that Walmart here (eastern North Carolina) is doing a heroic job keeping the shelves stocked. I went last night to walk around and then went today after church to look. Last night they were out of butter and several other common items. Today, those areas were stocked. Most departments have SOME of most ordinary products and since people are used to missing items here or there, I didn’t see panic buying like during the toilet paper craze. Their stockers have pulled boxes, bags, and cans to the front of shelves so the thin stock doesn’t show as much. Crackers are going fast. Some produce is thin to very thin, but they normally have lower stock on Sunday. The candy aisle seemed to be fairly empty. I am realizing the job they are having to do because of Conservative Treehouse. It has made the desperation behind it visible.
thank you for the tip about borax and even though i have 3 gallon plus 9 ( 50 0z) containers i even bought 2 large hand liquid detergent for emergencies as do at least one load per day check out walgreens for sales on detergent
Here in Rhode Island, my better half went to the grocery store this morning- report back is that the shelves are emptier than the last trip, where they were pulling the goods forward to make it look like they were full.
Frozen foods sections are pretty empty, grabbed the last container of mustard, couldn’t find certain canned goods.
Previously had to go hunting at various stores to find coal tar shampoo. Bought up the last couple of bottles we could find.
We’ve given up on finding a new vehicle right now -the car lots are pretty empty.
I live in a small Mississippi Delta farming town. We only have Walmart and Dollar General for grocery shopping, so I go to Sam’s in Memphis twice a year to stock up on certain grocery staple items and cleaning supplies. I went in late November and spent about $500-usually it is only about $350. I went today to Walmart and was able to buy all the chicken and beef I wanted. I also was able to get all the fresh fruits and vegetables (except asparagus) I needed. I could not get the certain canned dog food my rescue pups like but got three cases of the same brand. I was also able to get their favorite treats so I stocked up. I was able to get baking supplies, yogurt, and orange juice for my mom. I did notice frozen French fries were in stock but I stay away from French fries. Thankfully I have an extra refrigerator and an upright freezer in my garage. I will be working 7 days a week for the next few months and won’t have much time to grocery shop.
I went to CVS yesterday, I saw some deodorants that were $9.99 for the large size, normally they are around 5 or so. I was floored. On the way home I stopped in the Dollar General to see if they had milk, and their same size of deodorants were $2-$3.99. I find CVS expensive anyway and only go there for sale items, but jeez, 10 bucks for deodorant?
“Midwest Grocery Chain [Hy-Vee] Deploying Armed Guards At Each Store”
FTA: One of the largest grocery chains in the Midwest has announced that it will now have armed security guards at its stores during operating hours. Hy-Vee, which runs more than 240 locations across eight states, says its new security staff will be largely comprised of former law enforcement officers and will be equipped with pistols, tasers and bulletproof vests, with at least one guard at each location.
Hy-Vee’s executives have cited what they call a recent increase in retail crimes as the reasoning behind the decision.
https://www.simplemost.com/hy-vee-grocery-chain-deploying-armed-guards-stores/
The outlet strip mall when my Publix has just installed two really high poles stopped with large security cameras with blue lighting (light blue police color lighting] to cover the parking area in front of Publix, Walgreens, UPS area.
Been searching for a particular electronic device to pair with my tablet for weeks. Not available from the brand name website, nor from local Office Depot, Best Buy, Walmart, Target….half the slots on the shelves are empty in the small electronics department.
I have never been a big user of the out of home places. I live in NWA. The young crowd eats out a lot and at fast food places. I think it would be wise to educate people that eating out is about to get more complex and less accommodating. I really don’t see them as essential…vs feeding a family of 5. The grocery stores are the suppliers of the food on the kitchen tables, and that is where the damage is done. I am concerned about families not being able to have enough basic food for their meals. When times are rough, one must adjust his elaborate and oft times outrageous food fetishes. I do see some tough times coming where families learn to eat what they can find, and fix it in their kitchens and damn glad they have it. Perhaps we will stop wasting so much food. The rough times are for those who are ignorant about how things work. They have zero idea where a potato comes from or how the chicken is processed. And that will cause chaos. We have youngsters who want what they want when they want it and they have no intention of doing without. This is what I worry about.
Heh, we’d dig our own potatoes in the back yard and if we wanted to ‘glean’ a bit, walk down to the end of the street into the potato field and dig up a basket of them. There was no such thing as ‘eating out’, heck I had to earn my own money as a kid to go to the then new Taco Bell to get a 25 cent taco and 15 cent bucket of refried beans.
I don’t ever recall a shortage of food in the 50’s 60’s or 70’s. If there was I didn’t see it at the stores. Only time I ever saw empty shelves was when a store was going out of business and selling off their stock. Lines around the block when they rationed gas, sure. But food was plentiful, including all those bad for you snacks we young people enjoyed.
If people can’t adapt, yeah times will be tough for them. To me it’s nothing, part of being old I guess. It’s just food, sustinance, not the be all and end all of living. Figure out what one can find to sustain oneself, then go with that. Adapt and overcome. It all ends up in the septic tank anyway. Heh.
This could be a good lesson for these youngsters to learn.
Sounds like the 70’s.
In my area of central NC, the stores seem to be stocked well for the most part. Pet food being the worst. Dry cat and dog food ok, wet getting scarce. I’m hoping a new Publix distribution center being completed nearby will belp.
The thing that I find interesting right now is the difference in price and supply just between grocery stores a mile apart from each other. As an example, Wegman’s is consistently out of Body Armor sports drink, but Redner’s not only has lots of it in stock but also has it on sale!
Good for me that I’ll basically eat anything……thus my bear user name. 🐻
This message began two years ago with the pandemic, is still up on their web site and is still valid. This is the only kind of instant oriental noodles I love:
Maruchan YAKISOBA Noodles
https://www.maruchan.com/products/yakisoba/
Due to an unusually high spike in demand, many of your local stores may be out of stock of your favorite Maruchan items. We are working closely with our grocery store partners to ship as much product as possible but we ask for your patience during this time.
the shortages I’ve seen have been sporadic (seemingly random items). so I try and stock up on sale items when I can. we eat only meat so processed food shortages are not a concern. canned cat food has been consistently very low stock for a long time now. the other day one walmart had no heavy cream at all, but other stores and locations did.
Diversity (democrats)is going to be the worst thing for you personally and Heritage America in general, when a major crisis hits. Be as far away from it as possible
Please excuse a little off topic input – maybe with emphasis on “little”. It is an article about Covid being an instrument for handling a wider economical crisis than 2008. Very interesting (but maybe old news for most here :-/):
https://planetarianperspectives.substack.com/p/decoding-covid-pt-1
All the way over in Norway here, and we seem to be safe from the problems you are having over there (yet).
However, there are insane increases in prices of fertilizer and products neede in agriculture. We are less and less reliant on our own production for every year that passes by – and in case of an emergency, Norway would not be self reliant. Well, three things:
Considering this, I believe you may be painting a too rosy picture of what is to come. If every factor conspires to make a shortfall in food supplies this summer and autumn, we will see a situation far worse come winter 2022. Food shortage could be catastrophic late 2022, but then farmers would be even more stressed economically – and less likely to chance, or even have the economy to invest in a larger harvest in 2023.
Of course there are things that can be done – guarantees for loans from government etc., subsidies and so on – but the last thing I trust to handle something correctly is the government.
My wife made a pass through walmart last night. Reported no potatoes, chips, pasta, frozen orange juice and many other limited items.
Have not restocked from Christmas across the store. They possibly could be waiting on counting inventory for that.
A few years ago a man started making an item that was selling very well. I suggested he sell it to walmart. He said he had checked and they were happy with his product. He would have to increase production, they would be getting all of his product, he had to accept all returns but most importantly he would not get paid for one hundred twenty days. He declined.
I said all of that to say this. Any store that is slow to pay will fall into short supply as producers sell their products to stores that pay on delivery or within thirty days. As input cost go up producers cash will necessarily get tight and they will be forced to cash flow. Check smaller stores for the items you need.
No potatoes, or potato products at our store as well, for a week now. There is some serious funny business going on, we can thank the Biden Regime.
fyi – taters are pretty easy to grow.
I do grow potatoes, FYI that doesn’t help the current problem at hand with the stores.
Yes, but take time…..
Here in SW FL, I shop in 3-4 different stores. Publix, Walmart, Aldi’s, and Sprouts. Can honestly say, haven’t observed shortages of many items at all. Costco is a different story, however people over-buy there anyway.
Same thing on the Emerald Coast. No shortages or empty shelves at any of half a dozen Publix and Winn-Dixie stores we stop at on our commutes.
That’s something most people don’t know. Margins are low. Yet,Most everything in Wal-Mart is consigned. Walmart doesn’t buy anything up front.
I do make a product that sells. It will never sell in Walmart, their vendor relations are terrible, fines for this and that. Let them shrivel on the end of the China supply vine. Rebuild domestic manufacturing and retail.