Things that seem disconnected but aren’t. The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins show signs of vulnerability. This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.
In the previous October, November and December warnings we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window. Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up and the larger public is starting to notice. [NOTE: We nailed the timeline almost to the week]
Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area. Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.
Initial food instability signs in the supply chain. Things to look for:
(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).
And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.
(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).
(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.
(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.
(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.
(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)
(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.
(8) Absence of large container products
(9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)
(10) Big brand shortage.
(11) Shortage of wet pet foods
(12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc)
(13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries.
These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain. Once these issues are consistently visible, we are going to descend into food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.
At first, each retail operation will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
♦ BACKGROUND – Do you remember, the dairy farmers in 2020 dumping their milk because the commercial side of milk demand (schools, restaurants, bag milk purchasers) was forcibly locked down? Plastic jugs were in short supply, and the processing side of the equation has a limited amount of operational capacity.
Potato farmers and fresh food suppliers were also told to dump, blade or plough-over their crops due to lack of commercial side demand. These issues have longer term consequences than many would understand. These are fresh crops, replenishment crops, which require time before harvest and production.
The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality. As Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted in 2020, “There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products.”
Here is a snapshot of the food we had in storage at the end of February 2020: over 302 million pounds of frozen butter; 1.36 billion pounds of frozen cheese; 925 million pounds of frozen chicken; over 1 billion pounds of frozen fruit; nearly 2.04 billion pounds of frozen vegetables; 491 million pounds of frozen beef; and nearly 662 million pounds of frozen pork.
This bulk food storage is how the total U.S. consumer food supply ensures consistent availability even with weather impacts. As a nation, we essentially stay one harvest ahead of demand by storing it and smoothing out any peak/valley shortfalls. There are a total of 175,642 commercial facilities involved in this supply chain across the country
The stored food supply is the originating resource for food manufacturers who process the ingredients into a variety of branded food products and distribute to your local supermarket. That bulk stored food, and the subsequent supply chain, is entirely separate from the fresh food supply chain used by restaurants, hotels, cafeterias etc.
Look carefully at the graphic. See the fork in the supply chain that separates “food at home (40%)” from “food away from home (60%)”?
Food ‘outside the home’ includes restaurants, fast food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more. Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 60 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.
The ‘food away from home‘ sector has its own supply chain. Very few restaurants and venues (cited above) purchase food products from retail grocery outlets. As a result of the coronavirus mitigation effort, the ‘food away from home’ sector was reduced by 75% of daily food delivery operations. However, people still needed to eat. That meant retail food outlets, grocers, saw sales increases of 25 to 50 percent, depending on the area.
Covid regulations destroyed this complex supply chain in 2020. It takes time to recover because the replenishment is based on harvest cycles. This stuff must be grown.
When the food at home sector was forced to take on the majority of food delivery, they immediately hit processing constraints. The processing side of the supply chain to funnel food into suppliers for the grocery store has “x” amount of capacity. That system cannot (not feasible) and did not expand to meet the 20 to 50% increase in demand.
Think about potatoes. A potato farmer sells into one of the two paths “food at home” (retail stores, or a processing supplier) or “food away from home” (commercial food or commercial food processors). Other than bulk raw potatoes, the harvest goes into: (1) processing or (2) storage.
(1a) processing for retail sales (40%), ex. Ore Ida frozen potatoes, canning, or any of the other thousand retail products that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
(1b) processing for commercial sales (60%), ex. McDonalds french fries, or any of the thousand restaurant, lunchroom and cafeteria needs that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
♦ Processing – When 1b was shut down in 2020, 1a quickly reached maximum retail processing capacity. Massive multi-million machines and food processing systems have a capacity. The supplies they use also have a capacity: plastic bags, cardboard, trays, bowls, etc. The 1a processing system can only generate “X” amount of retail product at maximum capacity.
The remaining 1b commercial product was shut down. A massive percentage of 1b (commercial) potatoes have nowhere to go, except waste.
♦ Storage – Each processor in 1a stores product (deep cold or frozen storage) for 365-day processing and distribution. Those storage facilities have a limited amount of capacity. The 1b customers need fresh product for the majority of their outlets. Ergo storing for 1b customers who might eventually be allowed to open later only works for a short period of time. The fresh potato sales missed by 1b outlets = the 1b discard by potato farmers.
When you restart 1b suddenly the 1b short-term (fresh) storage product is quickly depleted. Refilling that 2020 storage is dependent on a new 2021 harvest, which simultaneously has a greater immediate demand because the supply chain on the processing side was boxcar’d (over capacity) and then reset to a higher capacity playing catchup.
The amount missing from 2021 storage, because it was used instead of saved, is essentially equal to the amount that was wasted in 2020.
Now you end 2021 will less reserves because storage is depleted, because a greater percentage of the current harvest was immediately used. You enter into the beginning of 2022 (winter) in a race to try and spread out the stored potatoes as you cross your fingers and race against the clock for the next harvest before running out.
You probably noticed – but attached to this issue is yet another motive to keep people (employees) away from large industrial cafeterias and even students from school lunchrooms. The total food supply chain needs time, and harvests, to catch up.
In the example above you can replace *potato* with just about any row crop or retail/commercial food commodity like milk.
The reason I list the shortage of potatoes as the #1 precursor is because every food outlet sells a potato in some form. Every supermarket and every single restaurant (fancy, sit down or fast food) sells some form of potato. Potatoes are demanded by every single food outlet; therefore, a shortage of potatoes is the first noticeable issue.
The 2020 demand disruption problem now becomes a 2021/2022 supply chain problem on both the fresh and processing side (depleted inventories), with each vector now competing for the same raw material: wheat, soybeans, grains, beans and stored row crops.
Making matters worse, the protein suppliers also need grain as feed for cattle, pigs, cows, chickens, etc.
[Note: who gets the short straw? The pet food manufacturers]
That’s the nub of the background supply chain issue in the food sector. Additionally, recovery is not a single-issue problem.
The recovery price and shortages relate to everything from current oil and gas prices to diesel engine oil prices, to fertilizer and weed killer costs, to plastic costs and petroleum packing shortages (Styrofoam especially), to cardboard and sustainable packaging costs, to energy costs and transportation/delivery costs. All along this complex supply chain there’s also workers and higher payroll costs.
Thus, we get the double-edged sword of higher prices (inflation) and simultaneous shortages.
Here’s what you can do to offset grocery store shortages (while possible):
(1) Buy the generic or store brand equivalent (sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(2) Purchase the organic version (another sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(3) Purchase the powered/dehydrated version (potatoes, milk, etc) and experiment (jazz it up).
Each retail operation, or chain of stores, will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
This is where field to fork supplier relationships can make a big difference. However, every outlet regardless of their operational excellence, is going to have significant shortages in their inventory. It’s an unavoidable outcome of the previous chaos.
On average the retail shortages will last for about as long as one full harvest schedule (4 to 6 months) depending on the commodity. By September of 2022 the various sector should be relatively recovered.
However, government intervention could make the issues worse, or the recovery time take longer, depending on how they respond when people get seriously stressed in a few weeks. The densely populated urban areas are going to be making a lot of noise and demanding the government fix the crisis.
Final note on INFLATION – The short-term prices will go up again, another 10, 20 up to 50% should be expected depending on the item. Those prices will eventually level off, but it’s doubtful they will be able to come back down until supply and demand find some equilibrium again, if ever. Right now, predicting future retail prices is too far off to even fathom.
I hope this outline provides you with information to help you make decisions for your family.
Hannaford is the biggest grocery store chain here in Maine. Will be heading out to one tomorrow to check product availabilities. Just for fun, I’ve attached is their weekly flyer:
https://www.hannaford.com/weekly-flyer
The only item I’d buy out of that flier was whole chickens. Most of the other prices are higher than I’ve paid recently. I’m so glad I cook from scratch!
We’re going out shortly to get a few. What I’m afraid of is, with inventories dropping, grocers will begin “rationing” products…as in the spring of 2020
Great price on the shrimp! Ours is $14.99 pound
Great resource for seeing what workers are saying inside their companies. Apparently, Wholefoods has been cancelling perishable goods due to workers staying home. https://www.thelayoff.com/t/1ezVtfl7
Tap the company in you’re looking for and see what they are saying https://www.thelayoff.com/
Whole Foods needs to distribute IVM and vitamin D.
First company, or even small markets, to do so may clean up in the food business.
So Cal shoppers…I’ve seen a few times on this type of thread where folks can’t find the frozen hash brown patties like McDonalds has. Every store I go to is out and has been for a while…except Trader Joe’s. They still have them…got some today.
Somebody must be hoarding all the potatoes. Biden and his commies come to mind.
The speaker of the house had them distilled into vodka.
I’m having the same problem in PA.
Just got back from my Hendersonville, NC Publix. Look at that, no frozen potatoes and only half the usual amount of Potatoes. The 3 people I saw “Stocking” shelves were just rearranging to make things look better. But don’t worry, the Beauty products section looked fully stocked.
Western North Carolina. Price of citrus is through the roof . 0.88 for one navel orange. Meat is way high across the board. Sale price now is higher than regular price a year ago. There’s been a persistent lack of saltine crackers on the shelf. I’m talking weeks. My theory is that they take up too much room on the truck. Other crackers and snacks appear to be plentiful. These are the things I’ve noticed. For the most part I find everything I’m looking for. Prices are up on just about everything though. Ingles here seems to let stock dwindle until it’s almost gone before restocking shelves
Nabisco crackers will be delivered on their own truck. Saltines will get space before snack crackers. Winter time means lots of soups and chilis , so lots of saltines being sold. Any snow panics will completely empty saltine supplies. Keebler products are the same. They run their own delivery trucks. Talking to the local Nabisco salesman, they have been having lots of shortages. The warehouse cutting half of his orders at times.
Locally frozen potatoes have been low stock at Wal Mart. The local grocery my daughter works at has had empty frozen freezers for months. Both stores were out of pastas this week. A grocery, especially Wal Mart, know to the penny how much each inch of shelf space makes the company. Wal Mart used to charge companies for shelf space, not sure if they still do. For shelves to be empty at Wal Mart means we have problems.
Just got back from the local Napa store. Went to stock up on oils and filters. The counter guy said their chain is out of Napa brand 10W30 oil. 3 of my rigs use 10W30. Bought several 5gals of the remaining name brand 10W30. Filters were also low or out of stock. One of my sons is the Director of Food Services for a large healthcare corp in the Northwest. Out of his standard 150 food supply items he orders weekly for several hospitals, 57 of the 150 were unavailable with no future restock date. This thing is absolutely starting.
Could you ask him which food products he can’t get, or just mention some of them?
Going to have to commandeer the cross border drug runners’ aircraft for food soon.
As soon as the word gets out on SD’s warnings, we will witness panic buying on every grocery item. Stock up on what you eat and use. Great advice from SD.
The Aldi’s I shop in NH had butter at 1.79/Lb a month ago. Now it is 2.99/LB.
Flour was .95/5LB a month ago. Now it is 1.45/5LB.
12 roll 1000 sheets per roll toilet paper was 6.45/ pkg. a month ago. It is now 7.45 per package.
Original potato chips were .99 per bag a month ago. Now they are 1.45 per bag.
Cans of whole kerel corn has been out for six months. Went on a Tuesday and they had them for .47 per can. Thursday they were out again.
All their condiments, ketchup, mustard, mayo and soy sauce are up about 33%.
Olives are still .79 per jar.
Half and half still 1.55 per qt.
Eggs are 1.28 per dz.
White and yellow cheese slices still 1.45/pkg.
Foam plates and napkins went up somewhere about 20%.
Bride of 50 years did a formal change of command for shopping and cooking. The prices shown are accurate for the stores I shop.
Aldi’s pro tip: They have three types of discounts.
One is regular sales that have white background with red print sales stickers.
The second is individual stores run specials on close to sell date items. These are identified by all red with black print price signs that are on the shelves alongside the other price signs. Train your eyes to spot them.
The third is meat specials that are close to sell by date. Some that still have a week to go are 30% off. I pass those up and wait a couple of days for the 50% off on meats that are a couple of days away from sell by dates.
When you check out keep the red tag items last on the conveyor and verify the register rings up correct discount price.
BJ’s Purina canned cat food is up 25% in the last two months and selection hit or miss.
8oClock whole bean coffee when on sale is 1.30 more per 42oz bag than three months ago.
Pro tip: Whole bean 8Oclock has a best by date about a year away. Keep in cool place like dry cellar. Buy whole bean and grind yourself fresh each day. Our use is one 42 oz bag every 9 days. We need 41 bags for a year plus more to give family members and friends who don’t prep.
Local Hy-Vee store revamped about two years ago. Major price hikes then. About a year and a half ago, they closed down the deli and eliminated the little restaurant tables. New configuration is two long aisles of LIQUOR. Deli manager now oversees a skeleton staff of two or three, who prepare meals of burgers & fries and chicken meals that sit on slanted shelves waiting for a customer to pick them up and pay 25% more than they used to be. Deli salads are now imported from the home office “factory” and are located next to lettuce & coleslaw.
At the same time, staff insiders told me they downsized the bakery AND let the bakery employees go; town 25 miles away now does all the baking which is trucked to my town. Sky high prices. Oh, and the latest rumor is that all the bakery equipment will be taken out and a STARBUCKS squeezed into that space.
As for staples, coffee prices have soared, far more than Biden’s 10% estimate. Actual coffee is now squished into two or three short shelves. Running almost the length of the aisle are mega displays of expensive lattes & espresso mixes. Last shopping trip there I noticed a bottom short shelf of 44 oz. Yuban coffee (which I hadn’t seen in years), as well as Maxwell House. . . .$11.49!!! At the other chain store in town they were also there but at a price of $9.99
Being retired and having lots of time, I try to visit with other shoppers in the aisles who many times seem to be perplexed or stunned about prices. In a low voice, I lean toward them saying, “Elections do have consequences.” Majority of the time people will wholeheartedly agree.
Apart from fresh produce, my local Harris Teeter, Wegmans, Giant and Safeway are not showing any signs of these stresses as yet. Even though I am a Parameter shopper, I often stroll thru the aisles but so far no major shortages. I also do a lot of shopping at my local organic store. They often are “out” of things but usually because of delivery schedules and weather.
Just got back from my local store (Pacific NW, unfortunately). My cashier, who I have known for a few years, told me they were told yesterday the warehouses are at 48% stocked and dropping, many items will be unavailable for months, no rainchecks. Stocking staff is being reduced as less to shelve. “Fresh” food here is always sketchy to begin with (unless you like aphids, slugs and mildews).
Shenandoah Valley, VA- little to no frozen potatoes, frozen dinners, no fresh chicken portions (only whole chickens), minimal deli meats and no wet cat food from the major brands
The biggest thing one can do is support their local farmers and farmers markets.
Tucson resident and mjlitary retiree here.
I trust SD on this, so I reorganized our pantry and went out and bought some items to ensure that we’re in as good a shape as possible before Jan 17 or so.
Here’s what the regular grocery stores are low on here:
ramen noodles; some frozen microwave dinners; healthy dry cereal; certain pasta shapes, juice
Sam’s Club has no pancake syrup at all or 5 lb tubs of protein powder.
The base commissary was short of:
breakfast cereal, juice, ramen noodles, certain shaped pastas, family-size frozen meals,
cheaper brands of oatmeal in barrel-like tubes
white onions or sweet onions
cheaper brands of bacon
breakfast sausage
I do think we fare better here on many items, especially fresh produce, due to our being near Mexico and Calif.
Food Supply: My estimation — 2022 will be worse than ‘21. ‘23 will be worse than ‘22.
By Micaheal Yon
9 Jan 2022
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1524818/food-supply-my-estimation-2022-will-be-worse-than-21-23-will-be-worse-than-22
Interesting analysis here. However, my view is that we are under authoritarian attack. Production and supply are being targeted. The problems are not derived through massive incompetence, but through competent attacks. All but the slowest ducks on the pond can see that we need to open up. Yet many authoritarian governments are increasing their attacks on their own people. We are never more than six mixed-meals from Hangry Chaos. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/01/08/things-to-look-for
Do not attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence.
You may recall PT’s farms to families program, delivering to food banks. I volunteer at one.
A lot of the products destined for restaurants(frozen/dairy/produce/and potatoes) came through that program that ended around May-June/21.
Inside the sealed custom labeled box was placed a personal message from DJT to families in English and Spanish, which I thought was sincere. No glittering generalities.
The messages were removed right after the selection in Jan. w/o a replacement from Brandon the Benevolent.
Brandon knows the only people that feign support for him are the bribed or bullied swamp bureaucrats and political racketeers mask-a-raiding as a homogenized collective of faceless McPronouns, hiding behind the veneer of the artificial aristocracy.
From the Russia Hoax to Impeachment Hoaxes to Election Hoax to Capitol Hoax.
Next up, economic “catastrophe” and the inflation “stealth tax”. Bare Shelves Better.
“Like their brother robbers on the highway, they suppose the escape of the moment a final escape and deem infamy and future risk countervailed by present gain.” –Thomas Jefferson to Francois de Marbois, 1817
My opinion only.
Costco rotisserie whole chicken $4.99
They will do everything to keep the price at $4.99.
Costco actually loses money on the rotisserie chicken, but that is their thing to get people into the store. 😉
The Costco chicken is only a good deal if you don’t cook. It’s not a horrible deal, but not the best bang for your buck.
It’s right about 3 pounds. For that $4.99 I can buy a 5 pound bird and if I hit a sale an even bigger one!
Another 10% and millions on fixed income will starve once their meager and deflated savings are gone. And pet food doesn’t look like an option to supplement their food supply this time.
Imagine what the animal shelters are going to look like!
famine is only a matter of time. I am a farmer. We have continued to deplete our most valuable resource, topsoil, at an alarming rate. It has happened very fast in geological time, but so slow that most humans don’t perceive it. The productive capacity of our farmland is going down. Better seed breeding and genetic modification of seeds have created the appearance of improved productivity, but it is an illusion. The best way to put it is, LIFE FEEDS LIFE. We have mined all the life from the soil and we are not replacing it. The soil is dead. The food is dead. Its such a slow process that most don’t notice, but it is happening. I put food on my table, but most farmers I know, don’t grow anything you can eat.
Agreed.. Too much soybean and corn production. Too much fertilizer. My garden soil is 24” of rich topsoil but it took 14 yrs of amending to get it that way. People will be stealing out of gardens as soon as this summer.
My friend, Hybrid Agri, has a page on YT, and goes all over the world teaching a unique type of organic gardening that anyone can do… His method has turned deserts into gardens.
Hybrid Agri on YT.
YES!! Many people take for granted that things will just grow. Number one is the soil and most people abuse it and kill it. It’s not as simple as throwing seeds on the ground.
Very empty shelves at the local King Soopers (Kroger) today near Monument, CO. Eggs practically empty. ZERO bagged potatoes. Milk was quite low. Lots of empty shelves in the soup aisle.
Produce was super low. We also noticed how tiny the potatoes in the 5lb bags are getting.
TWO roaster chickens at the Super Walmart. Two.
I’ve been quietly stocking for months. So we’re in good shape, but fully expect things to get worse based on what I saw today.
Local chain market Tuesday last – no Purina cat foods at all. Been thin for over a month, but now 100% gone. Cracker aisle almost empty – no Nabisco at all, just a smattering of Keebler. Meat and milk well stocked, but we’re farm country – primary sources are local.
Walmart the previous Friday, no wet cat food at all, except those tiny high-priced boutique cans.
Ordering Purina kibble on Amazon. Prices up as much as $5 a 22 lb bag. Amazon’s own warehouse fulfillment limited to one bag per order.
I hope I can keep ’em fed (got 5) until Spring when I can turn ’em out to catch their own food.
try on-line pet store “Chewy.com” … they are out of some products but generally you can get what you need.
Normally true. Just placed a Chewy order this a.m., they were ‘temporarily out of stock’ on most of the items I wanted. I over ordered just a little bit on the ones they did have.
I have found out that a certain percentage of our product comes through Canada and Biden has already put a law in place that disallows any truck drivers to cross the border who aren’t fully vaxxed/boosted. This put over 30k truckers off our highways…this supply chain failure is going to get much worse, we should be feeling this aspect within the next 2 weeks or so.
I volunteer at a local food bank. The volume of potatoes we have been getting is nowhere near what it was pre-virus. We regularly had a full or nearly-full gaylord (pallet-size octagonal box about 4′ high) of potatoes. We had to pick moldy potatoes out of the bottom to send to the pig farmers. Now, not so much. Some potatoes are sent by the retailers but nowhere near what it used to be.
Remember last June or so when the restaurants were closed for a while the farmers dumped potatoes and other vegetables by the truck load or plowed them under. They knew then potatoes in particular would be a problem before the next crop came off. The product is not there.
Right now we are dry. These cold fronts come through dry or with one tenth to a half inch of rain. Depending on weather in the right places, one crop may not get us out of this mess. With high fuel prices farmers may not have the funds to irrigate where they have irrigation. With fertilizer what it is there probably will not be as many acres planted.
I recommend everyone who can, grow your own garden. We cannot trust the Biden Regime of Communist Slugs.
^^^This!
Get your seeds now before it’s too late.
Supply chain from California is getting worse. I had 4 items that were supposed to come through the ports middle of January. They are sitting idle on a ship as of now. Delivery dates were pushed back till February, now showing middle of March. This is all Piglosi…. she is using her connections to slow the ports and hurt our Economy for her benefit. Just like Biden is rerouting mono clonal treatments from Red States.
In Cary, NC I now always find several products in the store that are very sparce. Recently it was applesauce, some paper products, cat food. For some reason the area for whipped cream cheese has been empty for many months. Last Friday the produce department at Harris Teeter was so sparce I couldn’t decide if it was because they were waiting for the shipment to arrive to restock most of the department, or maybe the shortages are largely at play.
https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/news/2022/01/07/ma-grocers-restaurants-stocking-troubles-shortages-supply-chain-issues-delays/9133471002/
Wegman’s, Mid-Atlantic (Maryland) We’ve had weather that impacted trucks, and folks out sick that impacted getting items to the shelves, but THERE ARE SHORTAGES, and there is almost no rhyme or reason for them. Not wide spread (yet)
That said, Wegman’s had FRESH produce, but very little frozen (all brands) or canned ( all brands).
Concur with your observation on Wegman. The only shortages I see at Weggies in SE Pa is frozen chicken (nuggets, strips). But they have rock solid relationships with regional suppliers and have been in business for+100 years.
Not sure how much this applies, but: My husband works for a major toilet-paper manufacturer. Two things people don’t seem to realize is that 1) the machines that make tp for home use run full-speed at all times, pre-and post-virus. They can’t make extra for panic-buying. 2) the machines that make tp for commercial use cannot be converted to home tp, nor packaged for retail shelf sale. (You could, I suppose, buy it from a commercial seller in giant cases.) There is just no margin for major demand change in the industry.
When food is in sufficiently short supply, no one will care which party is to blame; the whole of government will be held to be culpable.
Interesting morning here in SWFL.
Woke up to many high altitude contrails(Around 9am)(All in the same direction.)(WestbySE)(Four in total.)(All displayed characteristics of gaining altitude very quickly due to contrails breaking through high level clouds)(That is above 30/40000 feet).
Later around 1230pm while out on my Sundance inspired shopping)
Saw a very high altitude plane climbing very fast at a high rate of speed.(It was a large plane)(Clearly resolved as a large plane even at its current altitude and climb rate)
Look I am a little bit more knowledgeable than most but my estimate is this plane was not commercial.
It was climbing too fast and my estimate of its speed put it around 700/800 mph.
(It was screaming along as a bat out of hell)
Moving in same direction of the earlier contrails.
If this was typical airlines traffic then these contrails would be a regular occurrence for my local)
My first impression was this is highly unusual.
Commercial airlines making say a Tampa to Miami jump. Would not be seeking to gain this type of altitude on such a short hop.(And if commercial what would be it is destination?And, as with the earlier contrails, that is… that many in the same time frame and direction.
What? Commercial international air travel, all in the same direction on a flight plan to Where?
And all displayed the same characteristics in its contrail(that as the same as the earlier contrails and this 1230pm sighting showed no indications of leveling off in it’s climb rate before disappearing behind high level cloud cover.)
(Again this was observed over the course of about a minute walk into Walmart purposely slowed to make my observational impression. In that time the contail marked out nearly eight full extended hand widths of travel across the sky.)
Again, I note MY earlier post about RPg Family Wealth Advisory LLC!
Sundance, is right on point. As always.
Get Flight Aware, you can instantly look up where that plane overhead is going, what airline it is and type of plane.
And giving this knowledgeable insight of yours.
What says of your flight plan data sets Lookup, “Say of the observations as I posted.”
I will gladly stand corrected, if you can post a commercial flight plan that corresponds with this Get Flight Aware for the time period of 1230 on a trajectory of West by Southeast from SWFL.
My best estimate is a flight that originated in Tampa traveling on trajectory taking the flight Southwest of a flight destined to Miami.
I stress this aircraft was gaining altitude not as an aircraft already at altitude from a long term flight plan. But displayed characteristics of recently have takening flight within the last ten minutes. Due to fact the contail crossed high level clouds
Again, I stress I am knowledgeable in terms of observation through civilian air patrol observation.
That is of the characteristics of civilian vs military.
This plane was clearly at a very high altitude and still climbing at speeds exceeding commercial aircraft.(Again the observation of passing through of high level thin clouds that indicate a very rapid ascent of not a plane already on a long term flight plan but of one that locally is seeking to gain altitude with nearly one minute of observation and covering a significant sector travel across the sky. That stands as my impression.
A plane in excess of commercial air
Clearly this plane had recently taken flight, and was seeking gains in altitude as measurable through local observation(That is Not as having been on a long term flight plan where altitude had already been gained and leveled off(as expected of a commercial flight).
And again the bat out of hell measure of its speed.
If it was a plane on a long term flight plan already at altitude and at commercial air speeds from afar away then the contrails would not have broken through the thin high clouds at a rate indicating a more origination.
Again, I cite my knowledge of the Tampa to Miami air corridor with these contrails on track to missing Miami by being on a flight plan that takes them very much South of Miami as a destination not with standing why commercial flights WOULD be seeking such a high rate of observable localized gain in attitude for such a short hop. No commercial flight plan from Tampa to Miami would be seeking such an altitude gain.
But, I stress yet again no meantion of why…
RPg Family Wealth Advisory LLC would be taking a down grade position in the non-cyclical market.
Yup, that is my point of mysterious 1984 flight plans.
That is why…
Why would the home offices of some of wealthiest’s families in America be jumping ship on Wallstreet investments positions on food, energy and drugs.
Got your F’ing attention NOW!!!
Maybe, you need data on just much time people spend viewing Netflix abstracts on what to watch before they actually watch something.
Hmm, I dare, no I double dog dare anyone to dig up the actual article related to RPg Family Wealth Advisory bailing on the basic fundamentals of Wallstreet.
Yup, your silence will be very much indicative of not having a clue and joining the lines of those not having an f’ing clue.
Yah, did you see what I did!
How is that any different from the sanctioned dog whistles of the MSM of Click bait and switch.
My only point is some of the wealthiest families in America have bailed on investments in the industries that make sure vast amounts of people have full bellies.
And it is non story of nothing more than a headline that leads to 404 dead ends of dog whistles of what is to come!!!!!!!!!!!
Hmmm… WTF
That is I just spent forty minutes chosing what to watch on Netflix after having spent the last week previewing abstracts HEADLINES telling me what to watch.
Yah, that is from a level of human dynamics that can not be exploited!!!
And not from a marketing composite that had spent the last fifty years years figuring out whether you will spend six cents more to wiping your arse with two ply lavender as opposed to single ply rolls that last for an entire year.
Yup, zero reply.
That is how stupid and prepared to real world finger nail biters you are.
By real world finger nails biters, I am of the folks that will exists off of living on eating finger nails for the next six generations just to see you bleed to death of farting in their farting in their general direction.
UP Michigan
Aldi and family owned large grocery store.
Produce – no red bell peppers for a month. Most everything in this dept is now expensive. Even Aldi is creeping up. Bananas still cheap.
Meat – limited. Tons of turkeys, hams, kielbasa and other sausages. Medium supply of ground beef and pork. Not many steaks of any kind. Fresh lake perch – $18.99/lb! Bacon – limited and the good thick cut is $8/lb! * limited supply of canned meats, tuna and salmon.
Dairy – still a lot of it, prices aren’t bad but zero specialty cheeses which used to take up a 1/2 of the long coolers. Eggs – lower supply. Butter on sale for $2 5o/lb. Freezes well
Bakery – Aldi is best value. Prices holding steady.
Frozen – Only thing I buy here is ice cream, up $1.50.
Grocery – short supply: cat dry food, yeast, muffin liners, salt, vinegar, peanut butter, paper towels, toilet paper (both limit one) dish soap, bar soap, shampoos, laundry detergent, toothpaste.
No Jasmine or basmati rice. No specialty items. Shelves are getting empty.Ample supply of wet and dry dog food.
All vitamins, supplements pain killers, medical supplies have soared in price everywhere in town.
Health food store – prices still excellent (5 lbs whole oats /$2.55) Barley and many other grains.
Grocery stores stock all night so shop early in the morning.
Meanwhile, Joe was talking at the Boulder fire victims about windmills and building back better.
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2022/01/09/joe-biden-rants-aimlessly-about-windmills-while-addressing-thousands-of-wildfire-victims-n504014
Some food news
Blame it on Omicron is BS! These issues pre-dated the “discovery” of Omicron.
Eastern WV Panhandle: Martins/Giant well stocked today, only items with low supply were products advertised as on sale in their circular and the sale week started a few days ago, so they were pretty well picked over. Plenty of quality fresh produce and all meats were available but the prices caused some pain; the “sale” prices were what I considered typical over the past few years.
The pet food aisle looked fully stocked.
In past weeks certain items have been out of stock, such as all deli meat, or all cheese in the dairy aisle, but the following week it is back in stock. Also of note is that most products don’t have the generic equivalent on the shelves any more, only the higher-price name brand products are available. Not sure if that counts as “inflation” per se but it does put a dent in the food budget.
Prices overall are obviously higher than last year. I’m working from home so I make a lot of sandwiches for lunch. Mayo and mustard prices are a lot higher than a year ago.
The best deals are on the bakery aisle. Raw ingredients like flour, sugar, corn meal, oil, condensed milk, etc. haven’t been hit as hard with price increases as the prepared/processed/heat & eat foods. Good thing I like to bake!
Both Miracle Whip and Kraft Mayo are $5.96 for a 30 ounce jar. This started in my area early in 2021.
Nutrition is not so often mentioned of food discussions, even among preppers. There is much misinformation we all have seen daily for decades promulgated by the food industry. Big AG and Big Pharma own messages about nutrition we are inundated with daily.
Trust the CDC, FDA, Am Heart Assn, AMA, Am Diabetes Assn, etc.? These were bought and paid for long ago. Little credence should be given to any guidance from them. Lies are stated as fact today.
Carbohydrates are not Essential (necessary for survival) nutrients. Life goes on and better without them. There is little nutritional value in sugars, starches, etc.
People need to obtain all of the essential vitamins, essential fatty acids, essential amino acids, and essential minerals. Most can’t be had on a plant-only diet.
Proper nutrition keeps us healthy as well as preventing most non-communicable diseases as well as helping protect us from communicable diseases. Time to choose how long you want to live and how healthy you want to be in the future.
DISCLAIMER: I am merely a skilled laborer, not learned in biochemistry, medicine, or nutrition. This is my opinion only. Do your own research.
Please remove “merely” from your Disclaimer.
Jack Posobiec, on another site, linked to Twitter pictures of empty shelves and comments on those pictures. Twitter seems to have become mostly unreasoning Democrats who don’t research or want to know. They seem to be driven by madness to post the most obscene disrespect of Trump – a year after he is out of office – each one trying to outdo the previous poster in cruelty.
What surprised me is that all comments attacked the pictures of empty shelves, denying there was any problem. Commenters said that all shelves in X or Y store were full. The picture is only showing re-stocking, moving stock around or cleaning. These are old pictures from the toilet paper craze. Some workers are out with Covid and stores couldn’t stock their shelves. The recent snow and ice have prevented trucks getting through. The stores haven’t re-stocked that area since after-Christmas sales. Resolute denial, with no consideration of anything that doesn’t fit their leaders’ lies.
Geesh! I didn’t realize how cruel it is out there, how much anger and literally, hatred. I like being here where people are trying to be helpful and kind to each other.
The cause of the supply chain problem is really simple: China owns or controls most of the world’s shipping ports, and has limited and lowered the priority of goods and services both going to and coming from the United States.
https://www.voanews.com/a/6224958.html
So I’ve read that Creepy Bill Gates has bought up farmland…..
Great job Sundance.
RE:Things to Look For…
I asked Deb who, works @ the local Kroger, how much of the Hienz or Kraft crap shown we buy… ANSWER = NONE!
We stopped buying that kind of “FOOD” long before our now grown children were born… and passed those healthy eating habits on to them!
SD, when you mentioned turkey, that caught my eye. Went to grocery store last night for my elderly MIL. Hubby spotted smoked turkey from a local vender for .79 cents/lb. He wanted to get it but we have been stocking up & both freezers are full so we passed. Lots of empty ‘spots’ on the shelves-no saltines, no Fritos, tp low, some empty produce bins. Not sure if people around here are catching on or if it’s the weather. We typically have runs on the supermarkets when the word ‘snow’ is in the forecast-regardless of whether it’s a dusting or feet.
Report from Hudson Valley NY (about 75 miles north of NYC) Shoprite. Fresh food mostly fine. Lots of it from local producers so not surprising. Wet cat and dog food non existent. Pasta aisle half empty and very little tomato sauce. Lots of rice but 90% of it is in 25lb bags -guessing out of regular sizes and using large bags to cover the missing product. No 2% milk of any type (regular milk and Lactaid). Frozen foods ok. Seltzer and water about half empty. Toilet paper low – o no not again!
Reporting from Benton Co Ark. which is literally the home of the Waltons (not the John Boy Waltons, the other ones). It’s also the corporate HQs of Sams and Walmart. Even here there is less on the shelves. I don’t do in person shopping, I order on line and pick up or have it shipped. I have noted there are limits on certain items or completely out of stock. We have been stocking up since the first shutdown, right now putting the finishing touches on topping off the HB and chicken. I package meats with my food saver and freeze. We finished our basement last summer adding two bedrooms and large storage space. We keep it stocked. I call it my grocery store. I’ve noticed that some of my neighbors have gotten chickens. Our neighborhood is situated on the ridge of an old goat farm so we are semi urban, semi rural. I note that the neighbors all seem to be touching base and checking on each other. Nothing is said but there’s just a nod and understanding we are all on the same page. There are a couple of Biden supporters in the area but we just ignore them. We also stocked up on OTC meds as well as Ivermectin and zinc. I’ve spread the word to my kids to get prepared including cash on hand, full tank of gas, and if things get dicey come here stat. I’m praying that things settle down but if not we can hunker down for at least 6 months. Good luck Treepers and stay safe.
SE FL is very short wet pet food. I can make my own ( better quality), not as convenient, but doable.
Why would anyone buy anything from heinz-kraft? I make sure I NEVER do.
Publix in SE Florida was out of all cream cheese products for a week. Other than that, no change.
No shortage in San Diego Albertsons
In Walmart the other day and happened to notice, no frozen potatoes. I thought, ‘that’s odd’. Now I know.
Monday in San Antonio, absolutely no frozen potatoes of any kind including sweet potatoes. Various other shelves were not as full as usual but we chalked that up to the day after a weekend, but things were more sparse than usual. Meats, there was tons of meat, no shortage anywhere. That surprised me the most. Meat has been short on various occasions over the course of the pandemic. Didn’t really notice much else but will be more vigilant in the future.
Charlottesville VA, Food Lion – frozen potatoes completely out. Lots of bare shelves, exacerbated by panic buying for snow storm. But Frozen potatoes worse than everything else