U.S. Delays and Modifies “Next Step” Tariffs on Chinese Products…

Early on Tuesday United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced the modification of “next step” tariffs on Chinese products.  [See Here] “Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.”

President Trump responded to the delay/modification when questioned in New Jersey.  President Trump noted a “very productive” phone call between Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He of China:

[Transcript Segment] – […] Q Why did you make the decision on the tariffs, to delay the implementation of the tariffs?

THE PRESIDENT: Only to help, I think, a lot of different groups of people. And we had a very good talk yesterday with China — a very, very productive call. I think they want to do something. I think they’d like to do something dramatic. I was not sure whether or not they wanted to wait until a Democrat has a chance to get in. Hopefully that’s not going to happen because the economy would go to hell in a handbasket very fast.

But they really would like to make a deal. The call itself was very productive. I’m not sure if it was the tariffs or the call, but the call was very productive. Again, they’ve said this many times; they’ve said they’re going to buy farm products. So far, they’ve disappointed me with the truth. They haven’t been truthful, or, let’s say, they’ve certainly delayed the decision. But it’s their intention to buy a lot of farm product.

And we did — we had a very good call with China. I mean, they would really like to do — as you know, they have a problem in Hong Kong, but they would like very much to do something.

Q Would you consider moving the tariffs, even? Delaying them even further, past December 15?

THE PRESIDENT: No, we’re doing this for Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers, which, so far, they’ve had virtually none. The only impact has been that we’ve collected almost $60 billion from China — compliments of China. But just in case they might have an impact on people, what we’ve done is we’ve delayed it so that they won’t be relevant for the Christmas shopping season.

Q Mr. President, are you more optimistic now that there’s a chance of getting a deal between China on trade?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I’ve always been optimistic. My only question is whether or not they were willing to wait and take the chance on winning the election and deal with somebody who’s weak and ineffective and doesn’t know what he’s doing or she’s doing, like they’ve had in the past.

This should have been done 25 years ago. It should have been done 10 years ago or 5 years ago. This should have been done a long time ago. This should have been done by Biden and Obama. China is taking out $500 billion a year, and much more than that, if you include the theft of intellectual property. What I’m doing now should have been done many years ago.  (link)

At the 30,000 ft level, the decision to postpone and modify looks political from the perspective of timing.  Additionally the use of the term “next step tariffs” by USTR Lighthizer implies a sense of inevitability to a pre-determined process of increasing tariffs.

It would appear that President Trump has made a move based on a statement by Liu He about China making good on a prior promise to purchase significant agricultural products.  Whether or not Vice-Premier Liu He is being misled (or used) by Beijing’s strong-arm and duplicitous Commerce Minister Zhong Shan is yet to be determined.

Minister Zhong, who previously worked under Xi when the president was at the helm of Zhejiang province, is viewed as a hardliner who has strictly toed the party line.  Zhong was moved into primary trade negotiation position when China reengaged with the U.S. team.

My hunch is President Trump has delayed the Sept. 1st tariffs to see if Liu He will deliver on the agriculture promise, or if Zhon Shan is manipulating a lie to gain breathing room. While the latter seems more likely; it would make sense for President Trump to see of a multi-billion Ag purchase will take place.  The benefit to the U.S. would mean a pending  farm subsidy wouldn’t be needed; and based on the timing of the phone contact and message from China, this scenario appears to be the most likely background.

In essence President Trump appears to be looking to save U.S. money by avoiding a subsidy; and simultaneously benefit from the optic of the upcoming trade discussions with China in Washington DC in early September.

Pushing the full tariff decision to December 15th, puts a window of activity between now and the “next step” toward China.

Within that window President Trump will be traveling to Biarritz, France, (August 24th through 26th) for the G7 [U.S., U.K, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada +EU weasels)] where it is now anticipated an interim U.S-U.K trade deal will be announced.  [Maybe some unspoken five-eyes ‘spygate’ leverage for wheel grease]

Also within that window, the IG report on FISA abuse and ‘spygate’ (Sept?).

Also within that window, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be coming to the White House for an official state visit, and state dinner, in September.  A key strategic trade ally, geopolitical foil against China, and ASEAN member. [Maybe more five-eyes ‘spygate’ wheel-greasing leverage]

Also within that window the Canadian election will take place on October 21st; which, depending on outcome, could radically change the time-frame for the USMCA ratification.

It still seems more likely than not that President Trump (Team USA) and Shinzo Abe (Team Japan) have hammered out the U.S-Japan trade agreement.

Most forget, but team USA and team Japan met for weeks of negotiations before Trump’s state visit to Japan, and the G20 in Osaka soon thereafter.

Everyone suspected a trade announcement, but curiously there was no mention.  Instead, everyone immediately became distracted by President Trump’s visit to the DPRK and meeting with Kim Jong-un at the DMZ.

I suspect there was a purposeful intent (dual purpose) in the DPRK distraction; and I suspect the U.S-Japan trade announcement is being purposefully delayed based on the ongoing issues with China and the tentacles that extend globally and financially.

If my suspicions are accurate, President Trump is positioning the U.K. trade deal to be the ultimate leverage to force the EU into negotiations…. socialism is hit hard.  Then, if/when the Canadian election concludes, the USMCA ratification will be a primary focus…. Then comes an announcement of the U.S. and Japan deal…. then comes the hammer on China (and/or possibly now including Hong Kong)…. and communism is hit hard.

With the foundation of the USMCA, UK and Japan providing the overwhelming financial momentum, both parasitic wealth-sucking book-ends: China and the EU, are hit in a sequence of trade actions (tariffs) that could radically alter the global supply chain.

Just a hunch.

It all seems rather Trumpian.

No-one else could ever possibly pull this off.

No-one else would even try.

 

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This entry was posted in ASEAN, Big Government, Brexit, China, Communist, Decepticons, Dem Hypocrisy, Donald Trump, Economy, European Union, France, G7, Hong Kong, Japan, Japan State Visit 2019, media bias, NAFTA, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA, USMCA. Bookmark the permalink.

146 Responses to U.S. Delays and Modifies “Next Step” Tariffs on Chinese Products…

  1. Bubba Cow says:

    we can say Christmas now … !
    how far did they go

    Liked by 4 people

    • A2 says:

      It is a political move by the President as he so candidly admitted. But, it is also to allow more time for supply chain relocation. It is happening.

      It seems to me, much of the so-called trade war is more directed at US corporations who have moved their operations to China. They now are in a tough spot. Cave to the PRC, or
      relocate their operations to other countries in Asia, or back to the US.

      You just have to look at European firms, Versace, us firm Coach, even Cathay Pacific to see the reach of China’s dead threats. Those firms are caving in fear. Their bottom line. If they were smart they would blow the PRC off.

      The trade war issues with China, are structural within their economic system. Nothing you may do to that unless the PRC changes it’s ideological spots. Not going to happen in the short term.

      So, let the smart ones have time to cut their ties to the PRC. It’s only business after all.
      🤣🤣🤣

      Liked by 30 people

    • USTerminator says:

      They give Apple and all the last chance to move the manufacturing out of China by the end of year. They had amble warning but this one having a deadline and a floating device to save their Christmas present. This seems to be politic but it is President Trump tariff tactic. Moving 3 steps forward to tell the Globalists the catastrophic will be but move 1 step back to give them a chance to fix their decision. Watch for China exodus by the 4th quarter.

      Liked by 6 people

  2. tominellay says:

    Mr. Trump is always well prepared; he’s sober, and he plays for keeps.

    Liked by 23 people

  3. Dutchman says:

    One “M” down ( May) and 2 to go (Macron and Merkel). Xi’s pieces on the board keep getting less and less, and the ones he still has, are in ‘check’ or out of position.
    We are well past the opening, into the middle game.

    Liked by 28 people

    • Bubba Cow says:

      economic security = national security
      U.S. is roaring, EU, Canada not so much.
      Energy liberation was my initial attraction to PDJT. (lots more since!)
      The Globalists are all in on their vilification of atmospheric plant food and push for unreliable, politically correct pseudo-energy, which only produces ~2% worldwide, costs citizens billions in rates and subsidies, and drags down production economies.
      G7 will be fascinating.
      Winter is coming …

      Liked by 5 people

      • Dutchman says:

        Yeah, the war on plant food was the biggest Con, probably ever. Unbelievably they were able to take it as far as they did,..but affirms Abe was right about fooling people.

        Saw an article on AmericanThinker this a.m. Have to scroll down, titled
        “The divide isn’t what we think” (close). He is a little more discrete than I have been in my comments, but his underlieing thrust is clear.

        In a sense, the divide is between those who make and maintain ‘stuff’, and those who enjoy the results, without any idea of how it works, or how to keep it all working.

        His inference is clear, I think. See for yourself.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. Grandma Covfefe says:

    Thank you, Sundance….I’m loving this.

    I got your info on a 3 x 5 card and it will be interesting to see how the “dominos” starts to totter, and then fall after those ducks is lined up in a row…..
    …Quack Quack quack,,,,Bam Bam Bam…Kaboom.
    No more annoying “tick-tock” nonsense.

    “For behold, the day is coming, burning like an oven, when all the arrogant and all evildoers will be stubble.” Malachi 4:1

    Liked by 24 people

  5. fangdog says:

    Trump is gaining leaders to his cause whom now have positive influence in their Countries; Italy, Brazil, Poland, UK, South Korea, Japan, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Israel, etc. This is driving Globalists nuts. Globalists are witnessing are witnessing their depreciation right before their eyes.

    Liked by 37 people

  6. WSB says:

    Great hunch, Sundance! Many thanks for allowing us to see into the ‘looking glass’.

    Brilliant understanding of PT’s 30,000 foot view of our planet.

    Liked by 18 people

  7. The Boss says:

    I suspect too that there is more to this deferral in tariffs than the alleged (and likely phantom) increase in the price of toys. People routinely overpay for trendy crap like Cabbage Patch dolls and Tickle Me Elmos, so I doubt they’d even notice a price boost – assuming there is one at all – in this year’s latest Must Have junk.

    Of course, there are some preening business associations being given air time by the likes of Neil Cavuto and his leg-humping lap dog Charlie GaspingRINO, claiming how they saved Christmas for the children of America.

    If I were to guess, I think the agricultural purchase will happen. Same money coming into the US, just through a different transaction.

    Liked by 13 people

  8. Marygrace Powers says:

    “It all seems rather Trumpian.

    No-one else could ever possibly pull this off.

    No-one else would even try.” sd

    TRUER WORDS WERE NEVER SPOKEN/
    THANKS FOR YOUR INCREDIBLE WORK sundance.

    Liked by 31 people

    • icthematrix says:

      The most amazing President of modern times. Trump and his team are doing truly historic work in reshaping the economic landscape for America’s benefit, and half the nation/much of the world has no clue.

      Liked by 15 people

  9. Mike in a Truck says:

    Something else is goin on with PDJT Christmas statement. Every trucker that’s ever hauled frieght knows the warehouses are full of Christmas stuff by July. From February- July merchandise is packing into warehouses. That’s why the big Black Friday sales are a scam.The “sale prices” are nothing but a “discounting “of already purchased merchandise at a set set price point that has been raised in the preceding 6 months.People love to be manipulated.

    Liked by 30 people

    • Judith says:

      Well, one online retail outlet I routinely shop at announced the closing of it’s online store. That surprised me. Their few remaining brick and mortar stores will likely follow suit. Then I was told by store clerks this week that Dress Barn is going out of business by the end of the year.

      Could this be due to the closing of Asian sweatshops? No more cheap production lines to be had? Perhaps the Globalists have been planning a Christmas surprise, for maximum impact to thwart President Trump’s trade initiatives?

      What else can we expect to happen within that “gap” as multinational corporations abandon these sweatshops? Seems foolish of them all to pack it in just prior to the holiday rush, instead of merely moving their production lines back into the states. I don’t know, but the timing does seem a bit odd.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Sentient says:

      There may be warehouses full of cheap Chinese-made goods (toys, etc.) by July, but I don’t think there are warehouses full of iPhones. Toys cost $20, iPhones cost $1,000. Christmas sales numbers will be comprised mostly of higher end tech sales, and making things tougher on Apple going into Christmas before the election could tank the stock market at a time when an inverted bond yield curve is starting to flash recession. Pressure on China can resume later. Job #1 is to win re-election.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Jaek says:

        SD, talk to us about the inverted bond curve issue. It’s getting lots of press and scaring the market today. I’m a little worried about a recession before the next election. Bill Maher has been praying for one and so have a pile of Dem candidates. Is this red flag the real deal and how will the President react to it??

        Like

        • Sentient says:

          I don’t think Bill Maher’s prayers will prove very effective. Don’t worry about the yield curve. Low rates have benefits, too.

          Liked by 2 people

        • fangdog says:

          The economy normally means every when it comes to Presidential elections. Trump support runs much deeper than just the economy. It still gets down to what Democrat candidate has the moxie to do anything even close to being better than Trump about anything?

          Liked by 1 person

          • Maquis says:

            What could possibly be better than Trumpism even if they had the stones to say it? And upon what imaginary shred of credibility would they pronounce it? They got nothing.

            Liked by 2 people

            • fangdog says:

              They never had anything benefitting Americans. Trump comes along and shakes us American patriots out of our; “Fat,
              dumb and happy”. As time goes by and the more Trumpism is realized, the more it makes ordinary Democrats seem to be stupid played fools. It puts real meaning to the phrase “Useful Idiots”.

              Liked by 2 people

        • SwampRatTerrier says:

          He’s praying to Satan then.

          Liked by 2 people

    • ladypenquin says:

      It occurred to me as well – Christmas stuff shows up on the shelves July/August.

      You and I know that Mike… but the majority of folks don’t – so it does provide some cover for DJT as he ensures the outcomes of his other economic moves for #MAGA, and any other country who wants to be free of the globalists/China’ control.

      Like

  10. Nancy & Chuck are having conniptions

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Conservative Foundations says:

    There are several other factors that are happening currently in China, and not just the HK riots.
    The swine flu/ebola virus is devastating China’s pig population and pork production. It looks like they have already culled a third of the pigs so far this year, and it looks to go much higher. They also so have several different pest invasions, including the voracious army moth eating everything in sight. They are try to say only a couple of hundred hectares of crops affected. BS. They are on their way to a severe food crisis, and soon. As to them not buying US ag products, OK. This is a fungible commodity that will sell to the other buyers that lost out to the Chinese government buying from their suppliers.
    Of note, if their pig herd is being devastated and culled, they do not need the soybeans for feed.

    Liked by 9 people

  12. Pyrthroes says:

    It really is outrageous that Pelosi et al. are endlessly delaying USMCA for penny ante partisan- political purposes, needlessly compromising measures that act to Americans’ great benefit. But there ’tis: Rats’ odoriferous Disloyal Opposition in full cry.

    If not for media’s Goebbels-esque inanities, allied with a field of hate-mongering would-be Commissars and Gauleiters such as no reputable democracy has ever seen, Pres. Trump could have implemented post-Marshal Plan measures much earlier, to long-suppressed dependency cohorts’ immediate advantage.

    But no… meantime, Rats’ pipsqueak WOC-a-babies are at one with Corpse Man redux– ask any one of ’em how Buenos Aires relates to Brussels or Taipei, they’d wonder whose Congressional District these back-alley precincts entertain.

    Liked by 8 people

  13. 🍺Gunny66 says:

    Along with all the other factors, I will use this analogy.

    Our President has it seemed combined two games of strategy.

    Chess seems obvious, but also think of his Chess moves this way.
    He now has at least two Chess boards in play.
    For China and the EU.

    But, also; Has anyone ever played the game of “Risk”?

    A game to conquer the world. You can play it for hours.
    His strategy also reminds me of Risk in this case, because he has not only set up his Chess boards, but continually builds strength on his key locations. Risk

    Japan…first board one Rook in place…also power build up
    UK…… second board one Rook move. Power will build up quickly.

    Australia. Supplier of almost all food to SouthEast Asia
    First board, Second Rook will be in place…Power build up

    Well you get the picture…At least two Chess games in Progress. Risk building power and……

    The most powerful pieces….The Two Queens…….
    And, the buildup of the Base of world power

    The USA…ready to end the Globalist dreams

    But ….I’m lousy at Chess……but one man…our President….

    He has the world surrounded…..

    Liked by 14 people

    • Your Tour Guide says:

      Risk?

      Hadn’t thought of it for years. Used to have
      knock down, drag out, all night Risk games
      back in high school. Cut throat. No one even
      drank.

      I’m watching this all from a different perspective.
      Keeping tally on all the different sources of
      skimmed funds, under the table donations,
      silent bribes. And, specifically, who complains
      the loudest about the process. Figure out who’s
      doing the bribing ( the ones portrayed as the
      victims).

      Figure out who\s being bribed. That would be
      the ones that are the most outraged. The MSM?
      Regard them as second tier bribed.

      Liked by 5 people

      • pyromancer76 says:

        President Trump’s multi-board moves and Sundance’s well-educated surmises of tactics and strategy. Aren’t we fortunate.

        I also am looking for an end to “all the different sources of skimmed funds, under the table donations, silent bribes,” Your tour guide.”] So many were carefully cemented into our political process by the last (illegal) inhabitant of the White House. These had been building for years, but they (communists/global elites) were so sure of victory they didn’t have to pretend to follow laws anymore.

        They used the Chicago-way methods to cement their power and their absolute corruption of all our political processes. The skimmed funds, donations, bribes were made part of the criminal political process throughout every alphabet agency. I look forward to some young, fearless investigative reporter finding every boondoggle, listing the amounts lost to taxpayers over the years, and naming now-failed empires and emperors-with-no-clothes from both sides of the aisle.

        Liked by 1 person

      • The Boss says:

        We played Risk in college and we DID drink. Right into the Fog of War. 🙂

        Like

    • Elric VIII says:

      It’s more likely President Trump is playing the ancient Chinese game of Go. His strategy is to confine the crane (China) to its nest.

      Liked by 1 person

  14. Daniel says:

    That’s a lot of words for “let’s not close the doors just yet. let’s wait and see.” It’s not any sort of dimensional chess. It’s just negotiations. But if but if it helps, it’s also game theory. If anyone is interested in what that means or how it works, I’ll dig up a youtube video which explains it pretty well. It’s about behavior of organisms from bacteria all the way to humans and addresses cheating and other ideas as it pertains to operations where two or more parties work together with and/or against each other. Xi (China) is a straight up cheater. Properly applied game theory would have ended China before it started to grow powerful.

    Liked by 3 people

  15. FreedomLover says:

    If China really does have a problem with lack of US dollars, and lack of enough food, and they can buy ag products with those dollars vs. paying them into the tariff til, why not? A chance for China to publicly show “good faith” in negotiations. We shall see. I also like the thought that Trump is giving companies time to move out of China to the alternatives that have already been set up. So much good info on this site in regards to trade.

    Liked by 5 people

  16. Bogeyfree says:

    To me this gives the President another opportunity to paint China as the bad guy here if they don’t start meeting PT half way. Example, if they back away again from buying soybeans or other Ag stuff after PT gives them this Christmas break.

    People can see which President is trying and which is not.

    Also I think PT can show this Christmas give because he is going to roll out the Britain deal come Nov 1 which is brilliant if you think about it. He gets a huge win in Nov with Britain and then can either get a deal with China in spring or put the tariffs back on.

    The other point is what other President has the foresight and business savvy to understand the importance and the worldwide message this send by having a deal in place 24 hrs after Brexit.

    Just brilliant!

    Liked by 6 people

  17. Bogeyfree says:

    I wish PT economic team could provide PT with just a concise statement or 2-3 bullet talking points of what America loses by the Dems not passing USMCA.

    It needs to be crystal clear what this purposeful, political blocking of USMCA is costing Americans.

    Concise, clarity with specifics is what is needed so they become talking points by Americans.

    Liked by 2 people

  18. WxObserver says:

    To start with, I don’t know a lot about these financial games so this comment may not be worth much. That said…

    What if, on that phone call China they told Trump they would not be cutting prices or devaluing the Yuan to match the tariffs, and prices of those goods in U.S. would be going up by 10%? So Trump decides to delay the tariffs as a result. And the Chinese have now found a chink in the armor.

    That’s an admittedly pessimistic view and I hope I’m wrong about it.

    Like

    • steph_gray says:

      Well, I’m glad that PDJT does know, not just a lot – but practically everything.

      Like

    • Rob says:

      I don’t believe it matters to Trump if China responds this way. China gets hurt either way. Either it costs them with yuan devaluation and subsidies, or it costs them in terms of less exports.

      Liked by 2 people

    • TradeBait says:

      If that is the case, its a carrot in front of the horse’s nose. You go easy to provide an incentive to your opponent to get their heads in the game. You provide a temporary benefit to US customers through the Christmas holiday buying sprees. After that consumer purchases in the US naturally decline well into spring. The Chinese would also know that once the seasonal buying spree ends, the hammer would fall. They already have great citizen unrest, job losses and economic decline to deal with internally. It will grow far worse and the world will once again view the true stripes of atheistic communism.

      sundance has this nailed.

      Liked by 3 people

    • MAGADJT says:

      Doubtful. An increase in price o the US consumer would immediately result in a loss of sales. They have to move their product first and foremost, to keep the communist indentured servants working producing raw materials and finished goods. Because of our GDP growth and wage growth, we can well afford and absorb an increase in prices more than they can.

      Liked by 2 people

  19. TradeBait says:

    Another great analysis, sundance. The beauty of this economics, MAGA, and politics play is that all of the enemy combatants have been exposed. There is no more cover when the lights are on. It is winning on the grandest of scale and stages.

    Liked by 3 people

  20. MLK says:

    “Just a hunch . . .”

    Your hunches have been impressive. You’ve described the POTUS as “obsessive compulsive” when it comes to trade. A more elucidating term is “Control Freak.” Just freakish than clear-eyed. He continues to unsettle his opposition (globally) with how he refuses to be distracted or derailed, or trapped into circumstances in which he doesn’t have sufficient control. The obvious example of the last is a foreign crisis he is made to own.

    Where he has had sufficient control he’s pursued his initiatives with a keen eye to winning in the long-term (i.e. actually achieving his objectives) through proper sequencing. That, in my view, explains his pacing on his Global Trade Reset.

    At this airy level timing is never coincidental. It’s the most important tell. That’s been my recurring point about Epstein. Whomever had the power to resuscitate the Epstein Saga surely could have arranged his suicide long before he was in federal lockup. That set-piece was part of their plan.

    In any event, you’re spot on right that the second half of 2019 is going to be a geopolitical sight to see.

    Global capital flows move with lightening speed into, say, treasuries and the US stock market, but not in terms of new capital investment. The world is awash in over-capacity so the POTUS has wisely paced uncertainty/tariffs. With a consistent message that investment/production within the US guarantees tariff-free access to the coveted US market.

    If you ignore all of his opponents’ arm-waving and histrionics the POTUS has been honest and straightforward (“We have no secrets.”). It’s been many months since he schooled everyone in the paramount importance of Bilateral and Reciprocal Trade. That means each trading partner owns what is theirs (“It’s just a matter of common sense”).

    In the context of US/Japan trade — a fairly easy one to suss out because Abe/Japan didn’t pull any Resistance stunts and the two have a solid working relationship based on national interests, respectively — it’s easy to see what is on the POTUS’s trade ledger. That which Japan manufactures in the US is rightly factored into the overall trade balance. This is to say nothing of the geopolitical balancing, so to speak.

    Breaking Merkel/Germany is the key. We now know that Trump/Johnson are pressuring Merkel on autos. I expected (a real) Brexit to happen since the vote, with the likeliest outcome being some limited negotiated agreement to soften the hard edges for both Germany and the UK. That is even more likely now and the G7 is where it will come together and be announced.

    How’s this to blow everyone’s minds: the POTUS very publicly sent Bolton as a head fake. Already I’m reading that what the US wants in return for the temporary trade agreement (!!!) is a change in the British position on JCPOA and Iran. Nonsense. Trade is the driver here and the targets for leverage are Germany and Russia (Nord Stream II).

    I’m not at all worried about USMCA. It will be ratified by Canada whether Justin wins reelection (I say ‘no’) or not, and then by the US Congress –likely in November.

    Liked by 1 person

    • steph_gray says:

      That means each trading partner owns what is theirs (“It’s just a matter of common sense”)

      Indeed it is. It strikes me that VSGPDJT simply treats international trading partners the way good businesspeople do trading partners in the private sector. And it works – because it is basically international capitalism.

      We finally have a Hank Reardon running things instead of a Wesley Mouch.

      Liked by 7 people

      • MLK says:

        Many Americans, more every day, speak inchoately that the POTUS is saving America. That he is. But he must bring the rest of us along methodically because the truth of our collective failure is too depressing for most to contemplate before the renaissance is sufficiently in place.

        In short, we lost the post-Cold War quarter century by every indicia. Communist China won it, hands down. How in the world the Ruling and Governing Classes pulled that off — turning our UniPolar Moment into just that, a moment, is beyond me. I couldn’t have done it if I tried. Could you?

        That’s why I refer to them as Globalist Filth. Most especially the ones that playfully call themselves Americans.

        The POTUS is not interested in a new Cold War with China or even trying to stop its rise. He is rebuilding the US. He wishes China (and all other countries) well as long as they grow their economy and influence playing by the rules. The common sense rules, not the “Free Trade” for Communist China horse s**t.

        Liked by 7 people

  21. Rob says:

    I have not heard any news story mention what will be left of the tariffs between Sep.1st and Dec. 15th. So considering what was stepped back, what will the tariffs look like on Sep. 1st? How many billions, out of the 300 Billion, will still be getting the 10% tariff? Why no mention of it anywhere?

    Like

  22. Doug Amos says:

    A Canadian steel company (Stelco, Hamilton, Ontario) has finally bewailed the negatives caused by the tariffs and market prices yesterday. For months they had been bragging otherwise. That’s huge job losses and financial woes on back to back days for the Canadian media maggots to paper over for their darling Trudeau.

    Like

    • TradeBait says:

      That’s a good sign. Canadian citizens need to take a big dose of MCGA and get over their nanny state leadership. Justine is a perfect example of beta leadership from behind.

      Liked by 3 people

    • SHV says:

      “A Canadian steel company ”
      ****
      FWIW, Stelco is American owned and IIRC, there are currently no Canadian owned steel companies in Canada. That said, Stelco’s revenues are in the tank.

      Like

  23. LafnH20 says:

    By Dec. 15th, the lions share of products for the Christmas Holiday will already be in stores or somewhere in COUNTRY and moving along the logistics pipeline.

    What have we got to lose….

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Skidroe says:

    Sundance, I would like your input on these recession talks we are hearing from all the MSM. It seems to me they are trying to talk us into one. Could it be that the 10 yr. treasures are dropping because Europe and others have negative interest rates so they are flooding to the US? Just would like your take. Is it all propaganda?

    Like

    • Sentient says:

      Of course the media is trying to talk us into a recession. And they might. The ten year Note is a safe port in a storm, but the US 30 year bond is at a record low – approaching 2.0%. So bond investors see disinflation – and have nowhere else to go. Propaganda, reality, there’s no difference, really.

      Liked by 1 person

  25. teeheeman says:

    Lovin’ those images at the end of SD’s post – leverage, leverage and…….more leverage please.

    Like

  26. China’s Economy Worsens in July, Industrial Growth at 17-Year Low as Trade War Escalates

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-economy-worsens-in-july-industrial-growth-at-17-year-low-as-trade-war-escalates_3041656.html
    “BEIJING—China’s economy stumbled more sharply than expected in July, with industrial output growth cooling to a more than 17-year low, as the intensifying U.S. trade war took a heavier toll on businesses and consumers.
    “Activity in China has continued to cool despite a flurry of growth steps over the past year, raising questions over whether more rapid and forceful stimulus may be needed, even if it risks racking up more debt.
    “After a flicker of improvement in June, analysts said the latest data was evidence that demand faltered across the board last month, from industrial output and investment to retail sales.”

    Liked by 1 person

  27. Surprise, surprise……………

    Study Shows That Increasing China Tariffs Could Increase U.S. Jobs and Economy

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/3041339_3041339.html
    “The Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) released updated study results in July showing that a permanent across-the-board 25 percent tariff (PATB-25) on all imports from China would stimulate GDP growth and jobs in the U.S. economy.
    “According to the study, the United States would see growth as manufacturing jobs would be redirected to the country, while the average cost of imports would decrease as trade opportunities opened up in other countries.”
    ~
    “The full report states: ‘The tariff revenue totals $547 billion over five years. If those funds are reinjected back into the economy each year, this additional stimulus to growth results in a $167 billion boost to GDP and 1.05 million additional jobs in 2024.’”

    Liked by 1 person

    • Bogeyfree says:

      The ignorance and blatant attempt to not share the truth with the American people is absolutely despicable.

      It’s like if your doctor who knows you no longer have cancer continues to tell you you need chemotherapy.

      Liked by 2 people

  28. thedoc00 says:

    Great summary and in line with people who have any business and negotiating sense.

    This article is in stark contrast to the “Trump Blinks” banner playing on all the MSM screens as well as in contrast to the never Trump band on Maria B.’s FBN, never Trump side kicks, driving the show this morning.

    By the way for those who think highly of Maria B. on FBN/Fox, this is my major heartburn with her is that she surrounds herself with a TDS afflicted crew, who parade unchallenged Democrat and never-Trump Wall Street types across the screen when Maria B. is not present.

    Like

  29. Spectre says:

    What President Trump is trying to achieve is difficult, and China will not roll over as easily as Mexico did with the deadline tariff threats.

    SD is right, what’s at issue right now are the AG purchases that were promised, or at least hinted at in Japan. Getting those from China in exchange for pushing out the September tariffs would be a good move.

    President Trump is rational and realizes he can’t let the markets accelerate to the downside, there are real feedback effects on the economy and he’s adjusting his position which all good negotiators must be willing to do.

    Call it a blink, whatever, it doesn’t matter.

    He made an aggressive move with his September deadline and now he’s dialing it back, hoping to get negotiations back on track. There’s nothing wrong with that.

    CNBC talking heads, China and computer ALGOs would like the market turmoil to continue and President Trump is shifting his approach as needed.

    The problem he’s got with China is they don’t care what happens, at least in the short term, to their population and the 2020 elections are right around the corner. Major supply chains can’t shift out of China over night as easily as apparel can move to Vietnam.

    Maybe setting up a longer process with China, smaller wins and compromises that will keep the pressure on China, but not upend the markets, the economy or the elections is the way to go. I’ll leave thoughts on strategy to SD.

    Like

  30. When you hold all the “Trump” Cards, you can play them any way you like. The American people hoped to elect an experienced business negotiator, and succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

    Donald Trump has in two and a half years re-defined what the Office of the President must be. In the future you must have qualifications to be a CEO. Being a bribe-taking pretty faced Standard Politician won’t cut it anymore.

    Like

  31. DJ says:

    “THE PRESIDENT: No, we’re doing this for Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers, which, so far, they’ve had virtually none. … ”
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Navarro was on FBN a bit ago and verified that this is exactly why the tariffs have been delayed. He said that much of the Christmas product shipments have already been contracted for and the contracts were based in US dollars. Hence, there was no ability to take advantage of the devaluation of the Chinese currency on those fixed contracts which means that this segment of the tariffs would either be passed on to the consumer or eaten by the importing companies.

    Like

  32. Nigella says:

    To look at Drudge this morning one would think this was the end of the World… Hysterics abound.. all against the President

    Like

  33. GP says:

    China lied again-and Trump believed them again. That’s what I see.

    Like

  34. Right to reply says:

    Anyone else note Faux Business News today was hyping up looming recession due to tariffs? They really do hate Trump. I wish he’d give more time to RSBN and OAN who have some excellent political documentaries that no one else seems willing to show.

    Liked by 1 person

  35. Zippy says:

    “a “very productive” phone call between Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He of China”

    Excuse me, but they do not comply with MAJOR existing agreements and rules (WTO, HK, IMF). There IS NO trusting them on ANYTHING. The Chicom fatcats living in their police state only fear revolt since they will remain incredibly wealthy no matter what half measures we take, the only productive ones being measures that will also hurt here, just not nearly as much as they will in China. A “very productive” phone call is just an excuse for a cave related to US holiday sales.

    Like

  36. Sharon says:

    My wise friend sometimes says, “You can’t negotiate with liars.”

    She’s right. But President Trump is demonstrating that it may be possible to enter into negotiations with known liars and (by working effectively at the fulcrum) force them to come along in ways they never dreamed they would.

    Reminds me of the very old children’s Bible story song setting out the narrative from Exodus 23:

    When the Canaanites hardened their hearts against God
    And grieved Him because of their sin,
    He sent along hornets to bring them to time
    And to help His own people to win.

    The hornets persuaded them that it was
    To go quickly and not to go slow –
    He did not compel them to go ‘gainst their will
    He just made them willing to go.

    Here’s the complete text of the song:

    https://songswesangwhilegrowingupinthesouth.blogspot.com/2011/02/hornet-song.html

    Here’s the audio:

    Simple truths have real power.

    Liked by 2 people

  37. scrap1ron says:

    Let the Chicoms starve. After what they’ve been doing to us, and what their end game plans were for our future, screw them. They’ll be too busy putting down their own insurrection to be a threat to the rest of the world.

    Like

  38. Pegon Zellschmidt says:

    We’ll know the real story if Lighthizer or Ross resign. Until then, wouldn’t get too worked up.

    Liked by 2 people

  39. Zippy says:

    Like

  40. TheWanderingStar says:

    Companies leaving China.
    Supply chains being reworked.
    China inventories in USA are full for Christmas.
    USMCA approval looming.
    Japan, S Korea, Australia, UK, Poland, etc deals in the making.

    After 15-Dec-19, what company will be ramping up China based re-stock production with 10-25% tariffs hanging over their heads? At that point do we even need a “deal”??

    Like

  41. L4grasshopper says:

    Can someone refresh my memory on the timing of the end of NAFTA?

    I seem to remember that there was a date certain when NAFTA would end — by us pulling out after the required announcement and lead time — making it a binary choice between going with the new USMCA deal or going back to pre-NAFTA status quo.

    Did I remember this correctly? Did we give notice? And if so, is NAFTA done now or soon?

    Liked by 1 person

  42. Robster says:

    I thought the 10% tariffs WERE the “next step” tariffs. Seems to me the Chinese called his bluff and President Trump had to back down. Now the Chinese won’t take future threats of tariffs seriously.

    Like

    • JC says:

      Are YOU serious, Robster? You are either a tedious amateur troll or you haven’t learned a single thing from watching President Trump the past three years.

      Like

  43. rustybritches says:

    Markets hit rock bottom and everyone on the other side is screaming but Elon Arian said this morning that this is all because of what is going on in China and Europe and Germany so none of what is going on with market has to do with us going into a recession but if the left keeps screaming they might just trigger one by what they are doing (Selling and Not buying the Dip..
    I think that the Chinese just keeps playing with America and they seem to get a little of what they want each time, President Trump has too big of a heart and sorry but wish he would just tell the left that Our Second Amendment is apart of our freedom and constitution and We will not mess with that
    Gatamala said this morning they are against the new deal made with the USA and so I haven’t heard anything about what the President will do now about them but looks like they are just out to gain more money from the US I would slap those people so dam hard they would reel into the next month

    Like

  44. Truthfilter says:

    Ive learned more about economics from this site than I ever learned in high school, 4 years of college, and in 50 years of living.

    Thanks for your hard work, Sundance, and your flair for explaining complicated processes. If I was still teaching, I’d use your material in my classroom. Economics is a critical component of social studies curriculum that is largely ignored in the secondary grades 7-12. I guess the mathematic outcomes of economic theory do not lend themselves well to socialist indoctrination, not that many progressives can even do math.

    Liked by 4 people

  45. Proton says:

    Here we go again with the Recession fears again and the Stock Market is getting rocked…

    Like

  46. dufrst says:

    Excellent geo-economic/political/strategic analysis as is to be expected here at CTH. I absolutely love these posts! Great work!

    It’s rather stunning all of the moving pieces in this remake of the global trading order that Trump is embarking on against all vested business and economic interests, against almost 80 years of US Bretton Woods (or Marshall Plan as Sundance has termed it) policies and legacy, and against all current political and media class around the world! All are fighting a losing battle to one man! Extraordinary!

    The only thing I would add to this post is the negotiations with Brazil and the inevitable trade negotiations with India. Trump has used all of the economic tools (or arrows) to bring every major trading partner to the table for trade renegotiation. Whether it has been to use NATO 2% (EU), Iran and NK sanctions (choose between them or us China and EU), military protection (EU and Japan), and of course his favorite tariffs (steel and aluminum and Chinese).

    Trump’s foreign policy all boils down trade reform from Bretton woods support to reciprocity to include any military protection we provide. In other words, no more free lunch for nations we helped to become advanced and definitely no free lunch for adversaries like China and Russia!

    Back to Brazil and India. These are so-called middle income nations trying to break into the advance nation ranks. China is also a middle income nation, albeit with outsized global superpower ambitions. No middle income nation since WW2, has become an advanced industrialized nation without the help of the US. I believe the decoupling of the US from China will give nations like Brazil (Bolsanaro), India (Modi) and Indonesia (largest ASEAN economy) an opportunity to break into the advance nation realm. They are all big democratic economies with large populations that can collectively replace whatever China offered in terms of market size and labor advantage for cheap manufactured goods.

    I would expect when Trump completes the decoupling from China (when 25% tariffs are applied on all goods), he will turn to Brazil, India, and Indonesia or ASEAN for advantageous deals to replace China. China will not be able to break out of the middle without the US. I believe nations that were about to hitch their wagons to China like Pakistan (and maybe Russia), will begin to reassess that thinking if a trade agreement is not forged between the US and China. He will give them favorable terms to help them develop because he would have flatten the advantageous deals that the G7 nations have had for too long over the years. The USMCA again is the model, where the benefits slanted to Mexico to help them develop, while Canada was essentially not allowed to have anymore advantages because they are already an advanced economy.

    Either way, as Trump is wont to do, we are in a can’t lose situation whether China makes a deal or not. Simply amazing. I’m beginning to like the no deal scenario.

    Liked by 4 people

    • zorrorides says:

      Oh Dufrst, I appreciate your comment on how Trump is favoring Mexico over other nations. That is true. Mexico is getting a sweetheart deal for no reason other than Mexico is our nextdoor neighbor, who is badly in need of undeserved help.

      I think all of us who’ve visited in Mexico can think of many instances when individual Mexicans treated us with grace, good humor and kindness. Their government, not nearly so much. The coyotes, criminals, drug smugglers and cartels can reach world-class evil.

      Some are catching on that USMCA is still unfairly slanted to favor Mexico. I think Trump has done that on purpose. The WALL will make border protection possible against drugs as well as the illegal immigration. Think of The WALL and immigration enforcement as the USA helping Mexico to finally do right to us, as well as do the right thing for their average citizens.

      Mexico will soon be receiving back many Americanized Mexicans. If their ruling classes allow the working class to gain and keep prosperity, as well as defeat government corruption and the crime cartels, then the future is bright down Mexico way.

      And if not… The secure border and immigration reform will make sure furure problems stay in Mexico, separated and outside of the USA.

      Like

  47. wightmanfarm says:

    WTF is going on in the markets today ?

    Liked by 1 person

    • billrla says:

      wightmanfarm: Same thing that’s been going-on in the stock market almost every August since I can remember: Funny stuff. Up. Down. Up. Down. The Masters of the Universe are “summering” at their compounds on the Vineyard and in the Hamptons, and no adults are at home.

      Like

  48. Tiffthis says:

    And the msm is saying “Trump blinked” instead of saying- “this is good because the tariffs have hurt American consumers” – so hard to keep the lies straight 🤦🏼‍♀️

    Like

  49. History Teaches says:

    Don’t forget that the President originally did all his research, thinking, analysis and planning over many years. And while at the same time he was building a mammoth financial empire, networking amongst the power brokers and dealing with daily intrigues in the worlds of high finance, rival entrepreneurs, various levels of national/international government and skilled/unskilled labor.

    He absolutely blows into smithereens all the one dimensional politicians, who almost exclusively come from academic, legal or government working backgrounds.

    All book knowledge, inherited ideological preset world views, hypothetical.understanding of real human nature. One dimensional creatures who have little idea of thinking outside their boxes or challenging the status quo.

    President Trump is so vastly under rated as the powerhouse, savvy pragmatist he is. Someone who has a depth of knowledge and understanding of relationships. And based on a perennial, proven tradition of ideals that need to be proudly defended and replenished, and tweaked respectfully when necessary to accommodate new challenges.

    Amazing how he has reset the entire political/economic world order, despite being distracted by the malicious, cynical swamp creatures.

    We are in for a war like nothing else in the next year. As the world order is reset, the desperation of the national/ international enemies will increase exponentially.

    Winning in 2020 is the most important priority ever. Either MAGA and it’s world shaping influence becomes entrenched and expansive or we go back to the dark ages. And vengeful demons obsessed with an intensification of their witch hunts and totalitarian objectives.

    Liked by 5 people

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